研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|动力煤周报 2025-04-27 日耗持续下行，动煤承压偏弱 产地方面，目前冶金化工需求有一定韧性，长协煤发运采购需求稳定，但近期终端有 电厂检修，部分煤矿库存积压，价格弱势下调。短期煤炭价格需求支撑不足，随着天 气逐渐转暖，价格明显缺乏支撑。后期关注非电煤需求的持续性和库存情况。 核心观点 ◼ 市场分析 期货与现货价格：产地指数：截至 4 月 25 日，榆林 5800 大卡指数 521.0 元/吨，周环 比下跌 12.0 元/吨；鄂尔多斯 5500 大卡指数 465.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 9.0 元/吨；大同 5500 大卡指数 532.0 元/吨；周环比下跌 6.0 元/吨。港 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The coal price is expected to remain at a low level in the near future as the upward driving force is limited and the upstream and downstream are in a stalemate after continuous price drops [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation", with supply - side pressure remaining and the coal price weakly stable. The time - period definitions are: short - term within one week, medium - term from two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Likely factors**: Since April, the daily coal transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway has decreased from about 1.2 million tons per day in March to 1 million tons per day during the spring inspection, leading to a reduction in coal inventory at northern ports. During the "Golden March and Silver April", non - power demand has improved marginally in the short term. Due to the loose domestic coal supply - demand situation and continuous price decline, some enterprises have reduced foreign coal purchases, resulting in a recent decline in imported coal volume [4] - **Negative factors**: In April, northern heating has basically ended, and with rising temperatures, the pressure of the seasonal off - peak demand for thermal coal is emerging. The dry season of the Yangtze River is coming to an end, and the hydropower substitution effect will strengthen in May and June. The escalation of Sino - US tariff friction has put pressure on the export of some non - power terminal products of thermal coal. The National Climate Center predicts that from April 14 - 29, most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and there will be more precipitation in the southern part of the southwest region during the flood season this year, so hydropower will gradually play a greater role [4]