Fixed Income
Search documents
固定收益部市场日报-20251119
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-19 08:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The LGFV space remained stable, with higher-yielding issues tightening due to HF demand, and overall two-way flows skewed towards buying from RMs, especially for onshore AAA-guaranteed CNH issues [3] - BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target based on the 9M25 run-rate. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower, so the recommendation changes to neutral, and the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 for better carry [4] - Bangkok Bank's new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s are expected to have FVs of T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively [4][8] - H&H's credit profile is improving, and it is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. Its near-term refinancing risk is manageable [16][17][21] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the MEITUA curve and TW lifer NSINTW/FUBON widened by 2 - 5bps. There were two-way flows on CCAMCL Perp and block two-way trading on CDBFLC 35. Chinese and global funds sold HK bank SHCMBK/DAHSIN/BNKEA/NANYAN T2s [2] - The NWDEVL complex rose 1.4 - 2.9pts. BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 was 0.1pt lower. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were down by 0.4 - 1.0pt, and FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were 0.1pt lower [2] - Japanese/Korean IG spaces were up to 5bps wider on financial and corporate bonds, but flows were balanced on JP bank FRNs. SOFTBK and RAKUTN bonds were down by 0.9 - 1.3pts. Yankee AT1s and insurance subs dropped by 0.3 - 0.5pt. In SEA, OCBCSP/BBLTB T2s traded 3 - 5bps wider, and ACPM 5 1/8 Perp lowered by 1.3pts. There were two-way flows on BSFR 35 in the Middle Eastern space [2] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.83%), Dow (-1.07%), and Nasdaq (-1.21%) were lower. The latest initial jobless claims were +232k, higher than the market expectation of +223k. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.58%/3.70%/4.12%/4.74% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr Reg S/144A senior unsecured USD bonds. The FV of the new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s is expected to be T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively, considering its existing curve [8] BBLTB Analysis - Bangkok Bank is the largest bank in Thailand by total assets as of Sep'25, with a presence in 14 international markets. Its loan book is more diversified geographically than local peers, and it has the largest exposure to corporate and lowest to SME and retail [11] - In 9M25, Bangkok Bank showed resilient profitability, stable asset quality, and strong capital adequacy. NIM declined to 2.81% from 3.05% in 9M24, and the cost-to-income ratio fell to 44.7% from 46.3%. ROA/ROE increased to 1.12%/8.99% from 1.03%/8.54% in 9M24 [12] - In 3Q25, Bangkok Bank's asset quality stabilized, with credit costs down to c1.5% from c1.6% in 2Q25. The gross NPL ratio rose to 3.3% as of Sep'25 from 3.2% as of Jun'25, mainly due to a shrink in the loan book. NPL coverage ratio was 294% as of Sep'25 [13] - Bangkok Bank's capital buffers remain ample, with a standalone CET1 ratio of 19.6% as of Sep'25, well above the 8.0% regulatory minimum. The net reduction in CAR from redeeming USD750mn AT1 was mitigated by issuing USD1bn T2 bonds in Mar'25 [15] BTSDF Analysis - Based on the 9M25 run-rate, BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower after moving up c5pts since the buy recommendation in Jan'25, so the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 [4][16] H&H Analysis - H&H's 9M25 revenue increased by 12.0% yoy to RMB10.8bn, with all business segments growing. Mainland China remained the largest market, contributing 71.0% of revenue in 9M25, up from 65.9% in 9M24 [17] - The ANC segment grew 5.2% yoy in 9M25, driven by Swisse's performance in mainland China, especially in cross-border e-commerce and Douyin channels [18] - The BNC segment grew 24.0% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to a 35.2% yoy increase in mainland China IMF sales, reaching a market share of 16.4% as of Sep'25. The decline in pediatric probiotic and nutritional supplements narrowed [19] - The PNC segment grew 8.2% yoy in 9M25, due to Zesty Paws' growth in North America, partially offset by Solid Gold's decline in North America [20] - As of Sep'25, H&H held RMB1.7bn of cash, up from RMB1.6bn as of Dec'24. It has been proactive in debt management, and its near-term refinancing risk is manageable, with no major debt maturities until 2027 [21] - H&H targets to reduce net debt/adj. EBITDA to 3.7x by Dec'25 from 3.9x as of Jun'25 and considers an 80% RMB share of total debt as an optimal currency mix [22] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issued: The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation issued USD1000mn 5yr bonds with a 3.875% coupon at T+20 [25] - In the pipeline: Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr bonds at T+115 and T+130; the Government of Indonesia plans 5yr and 10yr bonds at 4.8% and 5.3%; SMBC Aviation Capital Finance plans a 10yr bond at T+145 [26] News and Market Color - There were 161 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB193bn. Month-to-date, 1,188 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,299bn, a 35.4% yoy increase [27] - S&P upgraded Marubeni Corp by one notch to A- from BBB+ with a stable outlook [27] Company News - NWD increased the cap on exchange offers to USD1.79bn from USD1.6bn, added an early tender date on 25 Nov'25 and an extra early payment date on 1 Dec'25 [33] - PDD Holdings 9M25 revenue was up 8.7% yoy to RMB307.9bn (cUSD43.4bn) [33] - POSCO's trading arm will acquire KRW1.3tn (cUSD860mn) worth of shares in Singapore's AGPA [33] - SoftBank's USD6.5bn bid for Ampere secured HSR early termination [33] - A former TSMC executive was probed by Taiwan over potential technology transfer and received TWD147bn (cUSD4.7bn) in government subsidies over 21 months [33] - Moody's placed West China Cement under review for upgrade following a bond deal and tender offer [33] - Xiaomi 3Q25 revenue was up 22.3% yoy to RMB113.1bn (cUSD16bn) [33]
固定收益部市场日报-20251118
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-18 11:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Asia IG space was 1 - 2bps wider this morning, with better selling on KR/JP/HK T2s [4]. - Tactical buyers continued to pick up cheaper offers in higher - yielding LGFV names in preparation for next year, while lower - yielding CNH issues remained under selling pressure [3]. - The report maintains a buy rating on PCORPM 7.35 Perp due to better carry, trading liquidity, smooth access to diverse funding channels, and notably lower refinancing pressure [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - There was better selling on Japanese names such as NOMURA/JERA/KUB/MITCO/MIZUHO/MUFG. Small selling on the BBLTB curve occurred due to news of new USD issues. PBs were buying Asia/Yankee FRNs with wider spreads. Mixed two - way flows were seen on AU/KR lower - spread names. Chinese onshore accounts were buying FRNs of leasing/security houses. Macau gaming names had price changes ranging from unchanged to 0.2pt lower, LIHHK 26 was 0.5pt higher, the NWDEVL complex was unchanged to 0.9pt lower, LASUDE 26 was down by 0.7pt. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 was 0.2pt lower while VNKRLE 29 was 0.2pt higher, and some other property papers had price drops [2]. Analyst Comments - PCORPM's net leverage improved due to lower net working capital. Its revenue declined by 10% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to lower sales volume and selling price. However, gross profit increased by 15% yoy, EBITDA grew by 11% yoy, and net profit surged 37% yoy. Free cash flow jumped 361% from 9M24 to PHP47bn. The report maintains a buy on PCORPM 7.35 Perp [8][9][11]. - WESCHI proposes to issue a new USD bond to fund a tender offer for WESCHI 26 at 101.238. Holders of WESCHI 26 who subscribe to the new bond may get priority in the tender offer and preferential allocation. The offer expires on 28 Nov '25 5pm CET, and WESCHI 26 was 0.4pt higher this morning [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include PTTTB 4 1/2 10/25/42 (price 88.7, change 0.6), CRNAU 9 1/4 10/01/29 (price 92.4, change 0.6), CQSXGU 6.95 08/07/28 (price 99.1, change 0.6), LIHHK 4.8 06/18/26 (price 94.9, change 0.5), ROADKG 6 03/04/29 (price 19.5, change 0.5) [5]. - Top underperformers include NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 45.1, change - 0.9), TENCNT 3.68 04/22/41 (price 85.5, change - 0.9), NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP (price 44.7, change - 0.8), LASUDE 5 07/28/26 (price 68.1, change - 0.7), NWDEVL 10.131 PERP (price 48.3, change - 0.6) [5]. Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P (-0.92%), Dow (-1.18%), and Nasdaq (-0.84%) were lower, and UST yield was lower. The 2/5/10/30 - year yield was at 3.60%/3.72%/4.13%/4.73% [7]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Guilin ETDZ Holding Group issued a 3 - year USD40mn bond with a 5.0% coupon at 5.0% and is unrated [15]. - Pipeline: Sichuan Kaizhou Development Holding plans a 3 - year bond with a 6.5% coupon and is unrated; The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation plans a 5 - year bond at T + 50 with a rating of Aa3/AA+/- [16]. News and Market Color - 98 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB120bn. Month - to - date, 1,027 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,115bn, a 27.9% yoy increase. S&P upgraded Bharti Airtel to BBB from BBB - and Del Monte Pacific 2QFY26 sales rose 10% yoy to USD234.9mn [17]. - Danantara will restore all grounded Garuda Indonesia aircraft by next year. Geely Automobile seeks a USD1.5bn - equivalent one - year loan for ZEEKR take - private. S&P downgraded Longfor to BB - from BB. NWD announced early tender results of its USD bonds and perps. Rio Tinto pauses a AUD215mn (cUSD140mn) BioIron green steel project. Transurban launches tender offers for TCLAU 3.375 03/22/27 and EUR bonds due 2028 and 2030 [23].
Spread Compression Makes These Bond ETFs Appealing
Etftrends· 2025-11-17 21:19
Group 1: Credit Market Overview - Tightening credit spreads present opportunities for fixed income investors, with investment-grade credit tightening by 10 basis points and high-yield by 30 basis points during Q3 [1] - Emerging markets (EM) debt has gained attention, with credit spreads narrowing by 78 basis points year-over-year and 40 basis points in Q3 [2] - A positive outlook for credit is expected to persist into 2026, supported by stable corporate leverage, strong margins, and lower U.S. consumer debt levels compared to pre-pandemic [3] Group 2: Investment Options - The Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF Shares (VTC) offers exposure to investment-grade corporate bonds, with a 30-day SEC yield of 4.75% and a low expense ratio of 0.03% [4] - The Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VWOB) provides diversified exposure to EM debt, featuring a 0.15% expense ratio [5]
Growth of Municipal ETFs, Grayscale Drop After IPO Filing | ETF IQ 11/17/2025
Bloomberg Television· 2025-11-17 18:53
SCARLET: WELCOME TO "ETF IQ." I AM SCARLET FU. KATIE: AND I AM KATIE GREIFELD. SCARLET: KATIE: LET'S GET TO THE BIGGEST STORIES RIGHT NOW.STOCKS WAVERING AS THEY PREPARE FOR NVIDIA EARNINGS AND THE DELAYED JOBS REPORT SET TO BE RELEASED LATER THIS WEEK. SCARLET: WE WILL SPEAK TO JOHN MAIER OF JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT ON THE FOURTH QUARTER GUIDANCE ON ETF'S. KATIE: PROJECT GRAYSCALE TESTS THE MARKETS AS IT FILES.ALL THAT AND MORE COMING UP. ERIC BALCHUNAS IS HERE WITH US NOW LOOKING AT THE FLOWS. WHAT HAVE ...
Gabelli Launches New Exchange-Traded Fund: Gabelli High Income ETF (GBHI)
Globenewswire· 2025-11-17 13:00
Core Viewpoint - Gabelli Funds, LLC has launched the Gabelli High Income ETF (GBHI), focusing on high total returns and capital preservation through investments in high-yield corporate bonds and other securities [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Gabelli High Income ETF is actively managed and aims to provide attractive income opportunities while maintaining disciplined risk management [2]. - The fund will primarily invest in upper-tier high yield corporate bonds, along with select investment-grade, hybrid, or equity-related securities [2]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a bottom-up, research-driven approach, targeting companies with strong balance sheets and consistent cash flow [2]. Group 2: Management and Strategy - Wayne Plewniak, with over 35 years of industry experience, manages the fund and leads Gabelli's fixed income platform [4]. - The ETF will maintain an average credit quality of BB- and an effective duration target between two and five years under normal market conditions [3]. - The fund aims to avoid over-leveraged or distressed issuers, ensuring a focus on capital preservation [3]. Group 3: Company Commitment - The launch of GBHI is part of Gabelli's strategy to expand its ETF suite and enhance access to its fixed income capabilities [3]. - The firm is dedicated to providing efficient and transparent ETF vehicles to a broader audience [3].
Extract Maximum Income Using Active Management
Etftrends· 2025-11-12 21:08
Core Insights - Fixed income investors are adapting to a changing interest rate environment as the Fed has implemented its second rate cut of the year, leading to a shift in investment strategies towards active management to maximize income [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed is facing mixed signals regarding the economy, with persistent inflation and signs of economic slowdown, creating uncertainty in capital markets [2] - Recent communications from the Fed have been less transparent, with Chair Powell aiming to reset market expectations for potential rate cuts in December [4][3] - Current predictions indicate a greater than 60% likelihood of further rate cuts by the Fed, although outcomes remain uncertain [3] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Fixed income investors are exploring alternative income sources beyond traditional bonds due to the shift in interest rate policy [5] - The Thornburg Multi Sector Bond ETF (TMB) is highlighted as an actively managed fund that can adapt to various fixed income markets, providing a diversified income stream regardless of the Fed's rate decisions [6] - Active management is emphasized as a crucial strategy for investors seeking to navigate the current uncertain rate environment effectively [5][6]
X @Investopedia
Investopedia· 2025-11-11 19:30
Living on a fixed income requires thoughtful planning and spending. Follow these five tips to ensure that you don’t outlive your savings in retirement. https://t.co/Vz0vw4m7ju ...
JBND: Active Core Bond, Without The Guesswork
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-11 12:48
Core Insights - The JP Morgan Active Bond ETF (JBND) is an actively managed fixed income exchange-traded fund focused on the intermediate part of the yield curve [1] Group 1 - JBND typically invests in U.S. Treasuries, indicating a strategy centered on government debt securities [1]
AllianceBernstein Enhances ETF Offerings with Two New Fixed Income Conversions
Prnewswire· 2025-11-10 12:30
Core Insights - AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. and AllianceBernstein L.P. launched two actively managed ETFs: AB New York Intermediate Municipal ETF (NYM) and AB Core Bond ETF (CORB) on the NYSE [1][2] - The launch of these ETFs is part of AllianceBernstein's strategy to expand its $2.5 billion suite of innovative investment solutions in the municipal market and to enhance its offerings in Active Taxable Fixed Income [2] Fund Details - NYM aims to provide safety of principal and maximize total return after considering federal, state, and local taxes for New York residents, while CORB seeks to provide safety of principal and a moderate to high rate of current income [7] - AllianceBernstein's Active Fixed Income ETFs have grown to over $5.5 billion, indicating strong demand for these investment products [2] Market Position - AllianceBernstein's municipal platform has seen its assets under management (AUM) grow from $35 billion in 2016 to over $83 billion as of August 31, 2025, showcasing the firm's expertise in the fixed income market [2][4] - The firm was recently awarded the Money Management Institute / Barron's 2025 Industry Award for Asset Manager of the Year in the Retail Advisory category, highlighting its commitment to delivering optimal outcomes for clients [2]
After Record October, It's Time to Consider Active Bond ETFs
Etftrends· 2025-11-07 22:08
Core Insights - Fixed income ETFs experienced record inflows of $51 billion in October, indicating strong interest despite market uncertainty [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has implemented two rate cuts this year, with potential for another before year-end, prompting fixed income investors to consider active management strategies [2] - Active ETFs provide flexibility in uncertain markets, allowing investors to adapt to systematic risks such as changing interest rates [3] Active Management Advantages - Active portfolio managers can navigate the complexities of bond markets, adjusting portfolios to align with current market conditions [4] - Active funds serve as flexible, all-weather solutions, enabling tailored investment strategies to meet specific objectives [4] Investment Options - The Thornburg Core Plus Bond ETF (TPLS) is recommended for those seeking core exposure, offering more flexibility than passive index funds [6] - The Thornburg Multi Sector Bond ETF (TMB) is suggested for income diversification, combining active management to enhance income in a rate-cutting environment [7] Educational Resources - A recent webinar featuring Thornburg's Head of Fixed Income discussed the advantages of active ETFs in the context of lower interest rates [8]