Market Seasonality - August typically exhibits lackluster returns, being the third worst month of the year with median returns under 05% [2] - The percentage of positive returns in August is around 54%, which is below the preferred threshold of 70% [3] - Historical patterns suggest a potential market stumble in early October, with increased volatility in September and caution advised for September, October, and November [7] - Early August may start with a negative trend, but both models (since 1928 and 1990) indicate a climb out of negative territory later in the month [8] - The model since 1990 suggests positive territory around the 15th or 16th of August, while the model since 1928 indicates earlier positive movement and a slightly higher month-end [9] US Dollar Index Seasonality - The US dollar index model, based on data since 1971, indicates an upward trend from late July into early August, continuing into early October [11] - A stronger US dollar can potentially disrupt risk markets, posing an impediment to stocks, commodities, and crypto [12] External Factors - New tariff news or a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy this week could significantly influence market direction [10] - Events like tariffs and presidential policies can override typical seasonality patterns [4][5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of seasonality in trading, suggesting that it has been a reliable backdrop for price action despite external factors like tariffs and budget bills [1] - The recommended trade setup is a long trade on Ross Stores (ROST), extending into January 2026, with a focus on identifying overlooked opportunities rather than chasing headlines [2][3] - ROST's current resistance is around $160, with support near $120, indicating potential volatility in the coming weeks [3] Group 2 - The proposed trading strategy is a "long call butterfly," which combines a long call spread and a short call spread sharing the same short strike and expiration date, aiming for profit if the price rises [3][5] - The current debit for the long call butterfly is $3.28, with a breakeven price at $138.23 plus commissions, and a potential profit of $1,672 on a risk of $328 [5] - The strategy allows for multiple exit strategies, including selling the butterfly when profit goals are met or loss thresholds are breached, typically aiming for a 100% to 300% return [6][9] Group 3 - The specific trade details include buying 1 ROST 16 Jan26 135 calls, selling 2 ROST 16 Jan26 150 calls, and buying 1 ROST 16 Jan26 165 calls [8] - Traders are advised to set alerts for key price levels, particularly around $150, to monitor the trade's performance as it approaches expiration [4] - Advanced traders may consider adjusting short strikes if the price continues to rise, providing flexibility in managing the trade [6]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Market Outlook & Strategy - The firm maintains an overweight position in equities since early May [1][2] - Positive July seasonality, especially after strong May and June gains (greater than 5%), suggests continued market strength [3] - Expects the rate of the rally to slow down after July [5] Earnings & Fundamentals - Earnings estimates have come down more than necessary due to tariff concerns, potentially creating a lower bar for companies to surpass in the second half of the year [6] Fiscal Policy Impact - The US is running 6-7% deficits, which equates to 6-7% unfunded money creation into the economy, serving as a backbone for the economy and market [7] - Fiscal stimulus is a significant factor supporting the market, even with struggles in areas like home building and housing [8] Investment Flows - Systematic bids that were forced out during the VA event in April are getting back in [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential of Lemonade, a company leveraging artificial intelligence in the insurance industry, highlighting its strong financial performance and growth prospects despite recent challenges [4][10][12]. Company Overview - Lemonade is transforming the insurance industry by utilizing AI to enhance customer experience, with chatbots that expedite quotes and claims processing [5]. - The company offers various insurance products, including renters, homeowners, life, pet, and car insurance, and has seen significant customer growth, reaching 2.5 million customers by Q1 2025, a 21% increase year-over-year [6]. Financial Performance - Lemonade's in-force premium (IFP) surpassed $1 billion for the first time in Q1 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 27% [8]. - The company's Q1 revenue reached a record $151.2 million, up 27% from the previous year, exceeding management's forecast [10]. - The trailing 12-month gross loss ratio improved to 73%, indicating effective management of claims relative to premiums [9]. Growth Prospects - Management projects that Lemonade could achieve $10 billion in IFP over the next decade, showcasing the company's rapid scaling potential [13]. - The stock is currently valued attractively, trading 81% below its all-time high, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.1, the lowest since going public [14]. Challenges and Considerations - Despite the positive outlook, Lemonade's adjusted EBITDA losses increased by 38% to $47 million in Q1, primarily due to significant wildfire-related claims [11]. - The company is expanding into new markets, which may temporarily increase its gross loss ratio as it scales operations [16]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective, as the path to achieving $10 billion in IFP may involve volatility [17].