Market Overview - WTI crude oil initially rose by approximately 1%, reaching $65.77, but later declined from around $75 following geopolitical tensions [1] - WTI experienced a 7% increase for the month but a 9% decrease for the quarter, marking the fourth negative price decline in the last five quarters [2] - Natural gas prices decreased by 16% for the quarter, while Arub gasoline prices fell by 9% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Oil supply is projected to grow four times faster than global oil demand this year [4] - Strong supply growth is expected from OPEC+ countries reversing post-pandemic production cuts, as well as from countries like Brazil, Guana, Norway, and Kazakhstan bringing offshore projects online [4] - US shale supply remains robust, with recent readings showing all-time highs [4] - Global oil demand is growing by approximately 600 thousand barrels per day (KBD) this year [6] Price Forecast and Influencing Factors - Goldman Sachs anticipates a further $10 downside for crude oil prices over the next 12 months due to strong supply [5] - A weaker dollar is expected to boost global oil demand by 300-400 KBD [10] - Recession risk in the US is estimated to be around 30% over the next 12 months, potentially impacting oil demand [7] Commodity Divergence - The analysis suggests the most upside potential for gold and US copper prices, while anticipating downside for oil [11] - China's commodity demand is becoming increasingly divergent, with strong power and copper demand growth but a peak in oil demand and weak LNG gas imports [12]

Well, decades of expansion in US oil drilling significantly impacted the Trump administration's ability to manage Iranian hostilities. This expansion bolstered US energy independence, shifting the country from being heavily reliant on Middle East oil imports to becoming a major exporter. It's given the US some leverage, but it's not without its geopolitical challenges.Our Washington correspondent Ben Worsko is joining us now to put this history into some context. Ben. Yeah, Josh.So this this as you as you g ...

Joining us now from the strategic for center for strategic and international studies, senior fellow for energy security, Clay Seagull. Was that was that an overstatement, Clay, to say that what we just showed our viewers, which is a bunch of red arrows, each one representing, by the way, a ship, the number of ships in that body of water is probably going to determine the path of oil and natural gas prices. Hey guys, good afternoon.Good to be with you. I think that the illustration that you showed basically ...

Our business is US only. So, uh, it shot up purchases in in April and May. A lot of buyers in the US, I think, that were waiting on purchasing a watch tended to, you know, push in the direction of transacting quicker rather than later, uh, because they're worried about the the tariffs coming into play. And then you know now coming into you know the end of June early July we're seeing a lot of the markets uh the prices are increasing for the first time in a long time because the primary brands are starting t ...

LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH. JOINING US IS STEPHEN SHORCK. HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THAT THEY WILL LAST.IT WILL DEPEND ON FURTHER ESCALATION AND HOW LONG THE HOSTILITIES. WE ARE LOOKING AT A SITUATION OF A WAIT AND SEE. THE MARKET HAS PRICED IN GREATER VOLATILITY.WHAT WE SAW BEFORE LAST THURSDAY WAS A MARKET SWITCHING INTO THE BRENT AND WTI BEGINNING IN 2026 HAD SWITCHED TO A MARKET WHERE PRICES FOR JANUARY WERE CHEAPER THAN FEBRUARY AND SO FORTH. THIS IS A CLASSIC FUNDAMENTAL TELLTALE THAT THE MARKET IS PRICING I ...

Given all the demand you just outlined for Bitcoin that you see and then your your target for end of year. Yeah. What do you think is most likely in terms of the way it gets there.Right. Are we going to see these omega candles where Bitcoin goes from 100 to 125 overnight. Yes.Crypto expert Matt Hogan and CIO of $12 billion assets under management firm Bitwise is now on record on why the Bitcoin price has been trading just above $100,000 per coin for months and what will finally break us through the actual a ...

Inflation and Pricing Trends - Food at home index increased by 03% in May, contrasting with a decrease of 04% in April [1] - Supply and demand issues, rather than tariffs, are significant contributors to cost increases, particularly concerning herd sizes which are at a 40-50 year low [4] - Increased fuel, labor, and energy prices are putting pressure on suppliers [17] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are impacting small suppliers, with a 10% tariff on bananas being split between the importer and the company, each absorbing 5% [7] - Specific tariffed items include bananas, pineapples, wines, and champagne from Europe [6][7] - Some products like avocados and salmon are not subject to tariffs [7] Consumer Behavior and Savings - Customers are generally feeling confident, and the company has not yet raised prices due to tariffs [3] - The company avoids raising prices because even a small increase (e g, from $499 to $509) can decrease sales [13] - Customers can save by checking specials, using apps, and trying private label products, which can offer savings of around 20% [14][15] - Sampling demos in stores can double or triple sales of an item [16] Local Produce and Supply - Local produce and fruits/vegetables are currently in season, providing good opportunities [9] - The US relies on imports for tropical fruits like pineapples and bananas due to limited domestic growing regions [11][9] - Lobster prices have decreased in the US due to high tariffs on US exports to China, resulting in ample domestic supply [8] Food Recalls - Food recalls are unpredictable and require quick reaction to clear shelves and notify customers [12]

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a firm floor for Brent crude prices in the range of $55-60 and WTI prices in the range of $50-55 [5] Core Insights - Global oil demand increased by 400 thousand barrels per day (kbd) in May, averaging 103.6 million barrels per day (mbd), although this was 250 kbd below expectations [5] - Total liquid inventories globally built by 10 million barrels (mb) in May, with crude oil stocks rising by 3 mb and oil product inventories increasing by 7 mb [5] - The report anticipates a 2.6 mbd surplus in crude oil by the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by rising OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [5] Oil Market Analysis - Front-month crude prices remain resilient despite accelerated OPEC supply hikes [5] - Five conditions are identified for crude prices to reflect year-end weakness, with expectations that only two will occur: a surge in OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [5] - Limited potential for run increases due to refinery closures in the US and Europe, capacity constraints in Russia, and export restrictions in China [5] Agricultural Market Insights - The USDA's June 12 WASDE report is viewed as a major bullish event risk for CBOT Corn prices, with a significant increase in US corn export targets [6] - US wheat export sales remain competitive, prompting an increase in old crop US wheat exports [6] - A tighter US cotton balance is expected due to rising export demand [6] Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The European natural gas market is influenced by supply factors following the decline in Russian pipeline flows, with a focus on demand dynamics [7] - The report introduces a European natural gas demand and storage tracker to monitor weekly demand and storage dynamics in key regions [7] LNG Trade Forecast - Global LNG trade in May 2025 reached 47.4 billion cubic meters (Bcm), with a year-to-date volume of 244.8 Bcm, reflecting a 3.4% year-over-year increase [8] - The forecast anticipates a growth of around 5% in global LNG trade for the full year 2025, reaching 589 Bcm [8] Commodity Market Positioning - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest declined by 3% week-over-week, driven by outflows in the gold market and weakness in energy prices [9] - Cumulative flows for 2025 have returned to 10-year average levels [9] Rig Activity Trends - The downward trend in US rig activity continues, with a decrease of nine oil rigs this week, particularly in the Permian and Eagle Ford basins [10] - The pace of rig attrition in the Permian is surpassing earlier projections, leading to a downward revision of 2025 Permian crude and condensate output [10] Price Forecasts - The report provides quarterly and annual price forecasts for various commodities, including WTI and Brent crude, natural gas, base metals, and precious metals [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodities sector, but it discusses various market dynamics and price expectations for oil and other commodities. Core Insights - Global oil inventories are increasing, yet prices remain stable, with market opinions divided on whether current oil prices are too low or too high. Prices are expected to remain within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end [3][6] - A global oil surplus has widened to 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd), likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance [3][6] - Despite supply pressures, three strong market forces are providing a firm price floor in the $55-60 Brent ($50-55 WTI) range [3][6] - Most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, are producing at or near maximum capacity following a price hike in July [3][6] - The U.S. administration may begin repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as early as August [3][6] - U.S. shale wellhead breakeven prices are estimated at around $47 WTI, assuming zero return [3][6] Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker - Global oil demand improved from the previous week, driven by a rebound in U.S. oil consumption, tracking approximately 400 thousand barrels per day (kbd) monthly expansion, yet remains 250 kbd below expectations [10] - Total liquid inventories globally edged up slightly, with crude oil stocks falling by 1 million barrels while oil product inventories increased by 2 million barrels [10] - Month-to-date, global liquid inventories have risen by 63 million barrels, with crude oil stocks up by 67 million barrels [10] Commodity Market Positioning - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest increased by 2.5% week-over-week (WOW) to $1.46 trillion, driven by inflows and rising prices across precious metals and crude oil [9] - Contract-based inflows reached $20 billion WOW, marking the highest aggregate inflows for 2025 at $90 billion year-to-date, surpassing 10-year average levels [9] Price Forecasts - WTI Crude prices are forecasted to average $57 per barrel in Q4 2025, while Brent Crude is expected to average $61 per barrel in the same period [12] - Platinum prices are projected to rise to an average of $1,200 per ounce in Q4 2025 and reach $1,300 per ounce by Q2 2026 [11]