Japan risks having to pay higher tariffs if it doesn’t fund Trump’s investment recommendations, according to a document fleshing out a $550 billion funding initiative agreed by the two nations in July https://t.co/h0hsZR4yUq ...

Growing market speculation over a Bank of Japan rate hike in October is underestimating the uncertainty wrought by tariffs, a former BOJ chief economist says https://t.co/9UyFtSgU5Y ...

Gross Margin Impact - Lululemon expects the end of the de minimis exemption to negatively impact its gross margin [1] - The impact on gross margin from the end of the de minimis exemption is expected to be greater than that of tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon Athletica has reduced its annual revenue and profit forecasts, indicating a slowdown in consumer demand as spending decreases and tariff pressures increase [1][10]. Financial Forecast - The company now expects annual revenue between $10.85 billion and $11 billion, down from a previous forecast of $11.15 billion to $11.30 billion [10]. - The annual profit per share forecast is now between $12.77 and $12.97, compared to earlier expectations of $14.58 to $14.78 [10]. - A projected hit of about $240 million on gross profit is anticipated due to higher tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption, with an expected impact of about $320 million on operating margin in 2026 [4]. Market Conditions - US holiday spending is expected to see its steepest drop since the pandemic, according to a PwC survey, which aligns with Lululemon's negative outlook for the second half of the year [3][9]. - The company has struggled to generate consumer interest amid inflation and competitive pressures from luxury brands and private-label products [3]. Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - Lululemon manufactures 40% of its products in Vietnam and sources 28% of its fabrics from mainland China, both of which face heavy duties on imports to the US [9]. - The removal of the de minimis exemption, effective August 29, has added to the company's cost pressures [7]. Recent Performance - For the second quarter ended August 3, revenue rose 7% to $2.53 billion, which was largely in line with analysts' expectations, while earnings per share of $3.10 exceeded estimates of $2.88 [11].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2, total net revenue rose 7% to $2.5 billion, with comparable sales increasing 1% [26] - Gross profit was $1.48 billion, representing 58.5% of net revenue, down from 59.6% in Q2 2024 [27][28] - Net income for the quarter was $371 million, or $3.10 per diluted share, compared to $3.15 in the same period last year [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Men's revenue increased 6%, women's revenue increased 5%, and accessories and other grew 15% [27] - Performance apparel continues to grow, while lounge and social product offerings have become stale, impacting sales negatively [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., revenue was flat, with comparable sales down 3% [26] - China revenue increased 25%, with comparable sales up 16% [27] - The rest of the world segment saw a revenue growth of 19%, with comparable sales increasing by 9% [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on increasing the number and frequency of new styles in its product assortment, aiming to raise new styles from 23% to 35% [16] - A new Chief AI and Technology Officer has been appointed to enhance product innovation and agility [18] - The company plans to navigate increased costs from tariffs through strategic pricing and supply chain initiatives [25][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed dissatisfaction with current U.S. results and acknowledged the need for product innovation to meet consumer expectations [6][24] - The company expects revenue growth of 4% to 6% for the year, with a decline in U.S. revenue projected at 1% to 2% [22][32] - Management remains optimistic about international growth, particularly in China, where growth is expected to be 20% to 25% [22][32] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $1.16 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and inventory increased 21% to $1.7 billion [31] - Capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $178 million, reflecting timing of store openings [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What changes are being made in the product department? - The focus is on maintaining momentum in performance activities, introducing new styles in lounge and social, and refreshing iconic items [46] Question: How are recent tariff increases affecting pricing strategy? - Modest price increases are being instituted on a small portion of the assortment, with ongoing evaluations of pricing strategies [49] Question: What is the right mix of casual and performance products? - A 60/40 split is considered a good benchmark, with ongoing adjustments based on consumer response to new styles [53] Question: How will the company manage inventory and course corrections before 2026? - New processes are in place to improve agility and speed in responding to consumer demand [79] Question: What impact does the de minimis exemption removal have on e-commerce? - Approximately two-thirds of U.S. e-commerce orders are fulfilled through Canada, and the removal of the exemption has a significant impact [80]

Economic Impact of Tariffs - The NHL commissioner suggests that the Canadian dollar's strength mitigates tariff concerns for Canadian clubs [1] - The Canadian dollar is stronger than it was 6 months ago, minimizing the dollar's impact on Canadian teams [1]

Financial Performance - Revenue missed expectations, coming in at $253 billion versus the expected $254 billion [1] - EPS beat expectations at $310 versus $288 [1] - Q3 EPS guidance is in the range of $218 to $223, while the street expected $293 [1] - Full year EPS guidance is in the range of $1277 to $1297, below the street estimate of $1445 [2] - Full year revenue guidance is $1085 billion to $11 billion, also light of the $1118 billion expected [2] - Gross margin came in at 585%, a slight beat against the analyst consensus of 576% [3] Market Dynamics & Challenges - Same store sales missed expectations at 1% versus the street's expectation of 22% [2][3] - The company is building the headwind of tariffs into its numbers [2] Stock Performance - Shares are down about 11% after missing on revenues [1] - Shares are down more than 12% [3]

Trade Policy & Legal Challenges - The Supreme Court is considering the legality of Trump's AIPA tariffs, which account for a significant portion of the $180 billion+ collected by the government this fiscal year [3] - A ruling against the tariffs could force the Trump administration to offer refunds, potentially causing chaos [3][4] - Experts note that a rapid decision from the Supreme Court is rare, usually requiring a hard deadline [6] - The Supreme Court may side with lower courts, finding that the president lacks the authority to impose these tariffs under the 1977 International Economic Power Emergency Act [9][10] - A base case scenario suggests a 50-65% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against the president's authority [12] Potential Economic Impact - Sectors like furniture, lumber, timber, aircraft, trucking, pharma, and semis could be aggressively hit if the AIPA authority is overruled [13][14] - Domestic importers, like those selling learning materials and companies like John Deere and Caterpillar, want refunds with interest if the tariffs are deemed illegal [17] - Refunds could amount to roughly $150 billion to $300 billion, creating a complicated process for the Treasury [18] - If the Supreme Court rejects the tariffs, Trump could still implement tariffs on specific sectors or pursue Section 301 investigations, similar to those already in place on $350 billion worth of goods from China [19][20] - Congress could grant the president the authority to tariff every single import, potentially costing the average family $2,700 per year [21] Tech Industry & White House - President Trump is hosting top business, political, and tech leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, and Tim Cook, at the White House [23][25] - The event is being called the "Rose Garden Club" and is seen as a way for Trump to showcase the remodeled Rose Garden patio [26][27]

Core Insights - Macy's Inc reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and raised its fiscal outlook, leading to an increase in share price [1][7] Financial Performance - Net sales for the quarter reached $4.81 billion, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.76 billion [2] - The company raised its 2025 earnings guidance from a range of $1.60-$2.00 to $1.70-$2.05, compared to the consensus of $1.79 [2][7] - Full-year FY25 EPS is now projected at $1.95, slightly above the previous estimate of $1.90 [7] Future Outlook - Macy's anticipates a third-quarter adjusted loss of 15-20 cents per share, better than the consensus loss of 20 cents [3] - The company plans to close 150 underperforming stores as part of its "Bold New Chapter" strategy, which is expected to improve long-term margins [4] - Macy's aims to expand its luxury segment by 20% and targets $750 million in asset sales over the next three years [4] Tariff Impact - The company expects tariffs to reduce FY25 EPS by approximately 25-40 cents, which is more than previously forecasted [5] - Gross margin is projected to be pressured by 40-60 basis points, compared to the earlier estimate of 20-40 basis points [5] - As of the end of last year, about 20% of Macy's merchandise was sourced from China, down from over 50% before the pandemic [6] Strategic Adjustments - To mitigate tariff impacts, Macy's is renegotiating supplier terms, adjusting order volumes, evaluating pricing strategies, and diversifying sourcing [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a positive comparable store sales growth in Q2, with mid-single-digit increases in stores opened in the past couple of years [4] - E-commerce sales accelerated by nearly 18% in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating a strong performance in the online segment [4] - Gross margin improved by 30 basis points year-to-date, with expectations to be up 10 to 60 basis points for the full year [40][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The introduction of the Jordan brand has contributed to double-digit growth in the combined Nike and Jordan business [15] - The company has expanded its Nike assortment, increasing the square footage dedicated to Nike products by 10-15% across stores [28] - The company has seen a mid-teens acceleration in sales from customers earning over $100,000 annually, indicating a shift towards higher-income consumers [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Traffic from the lowest two income quintiles has decreased in high single digits, while the middle income quintile remains stable [6][7] - The company has successfully attracted higher-income customers, with a notable increase in sales from those making over $100,000 [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on new store growth and has plans to expand the Jordan shop concept to all stores over the next two years [16] - The strategy includes a back-to-basics approach for the e-commerce platform, enhancing site functionality to improve customer experience [4] - The company aims to maintain its value proposition while navigating tariff impacts and adjusting pricing strategies accordingly [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about sustaining same-store sales growth, citing successful initiatives and a focus on value [35] - The company is prepared for potential price increases due to tariffs but believes its value offering will continue to attract customers [65] - Management noted that the consumer environment remains stable, with expectations of low single-digit inflation [64] Other Important Information - The company has pulled forward approximately $100 million in inventory at pre-tariff prices to mitigate tariff impacts [39] - The capital allocation strategy remains focused on stability, investing in growth initiatives, and returning value to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for the consumer environment in FY '26 compared to FY '25 - Management indicated that the environment is expected to be similar, with potential price adjustments due to tariffs impacting consumer behavior [64] Question: Pricing elasticity response to price increases - Management noted varied responses to price increases, with some categories experiencing no unit erosion while others saw a negative reaction when crossing price thresholds [66][67] Question: Expectations for inventory growth in the second half - Inventory is up 8% in dollars and 4.5% in units per store, with adjustments made for unit buys in the second half [73] Question: Margins outlook outside of tariff costs - Management sees upside opportunities in supply chain efficiencies and has launched a new warehouse management system to improve operations [77] Question: Competitive landscape and market share consolidation - Management anticipates some consolidation in the market due to the hidden costs of tariffs affecting companies with weaker balance sheets [81]