Core Insights - Investing in stocks based on valuation metrics, particularly the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, can identify opportunities with strong upside potential, especially for companies that are unprofitable or in early growth phases [1][2] Group 1: Price-to-Sales Ratio - The P/S ratio provides a clearer picture of value when earnings are minimal or volatile, as it compares a company's market capitalization to its revenues [2][5] - A stock with a P/S ratio below 1 is considered a good bargain, indicating that investors pay less than a dollar for each dollar of revenue generated [6] - The P/S ratio is preferred over the price-to-earnings ratio because sales are harder to manipulate, making it a more reliable metric [7] Group 2: Screening Parameters - Stocks with a P/S ratio less than the median for their industry are highlighted as better investment opportunities [9][10] - The screening process pairs low P/S ratios with solid balance sheets to avoid valuation traps associated with excessive debt [10] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) is benefiting from strong execution and a clear growth roadmap, with gross premiums written rising significantly, reflecting momentum in various insurance lines [12][13] - Macy's Inc. (M) is undergoing a transformation under its Bold New Chapter program, focusing on digital initiatives and omnichannel retailing, which has led to consistent outperformance [14][15] - GIII Apparel Group (GIII) is driving growth through product differentiation and strengthening direct-to-consumer channels, with owned brands generating higher margins [16][17] - Green Dot (GDOT) is well-positioned for growth with a strong balance sheet and significant cash reserves, expanding its addressable market through Banking-as-a-Service programs [18][20] - Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) is benefiting from operational improvements and a focus on its Three-Pillar Strategy, with high demand in its Residential segment and agricultural facilities [21][22]

We also discussed whether Berkshire’s recent underperformance relative to the S&P 500 reflects transition anxiety rather than fundamentals. Buffett’s long-standing philosophy of buying quality businesses and holding them for decades remains deeply embedded in the organization. His legacy holdings, including Apple, still anchor the portfolio, even as Berkshire has selectively added exposure to companies like Alphabet and Amazon.Both of us acknowledged that a 20% market reset is far from unthinkable, particul ...

Group 1 - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology firms such as Google and Nokia [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a personal blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries like consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Performance - Night Watch Investment Management LP experienced a net depreciation of -1.80% in Q4 2025, concluding the year with a total performance of 23.61% [2] - The performance in 2025 was broad-based and not reliant on a few securities, despite high volatility in single stocks during Q4 [2] Notable Positions - Haypp (HAYPP) emerged as the top performer, benefiting from regulatory resolutions and a reintroduction of Zyn at lower costs, positioning for high-margin growth in 2026 [3] - Allfunds (ALLFG) saw inflows into European securities and received a non-binding acquisition bid from Deutsche Boerse, leading to a reduction in Night Watch's position [4] - Marex (MRX), a Futures Commission Merchant, showed resilience despite market concerns over interest rates and exchange volumes, becoming the largest position in the portfolio with a P/E ratio around 9x [5] - Western Digital Corp (WDC) benefited from a memory shortage linked to AI data centers, with shares increasing over 200% since purchase, prompting a scaling down of the position [6] - Endava (DAVA) faced challenges as an IT services provider perceived as an AI loser, but potential for growth exists if programming efficiency leads to higher project volumes [7][8] - Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) maintained performance expectations with organic growth accelerating to 6%, despite a contraction in US industrial activity [9] Portfolio Strategy - Night Watch employs a global value strategy focusing on companies with identifiable catalysts for re-rating, such as industry tailwinds or company-specific events [10] - The portfolio as of December 31, 2025, includes 32 positions with a significant focus on defensive sectors, Europe, and unique holdings to provide diversification [12] Outlook - The outlook indicates that after four years of economic difficulty, opportunities are emerging in industrials and consumer discretionary sectors, with expectations for further rate cuts and tax refunds supporting US consumer spending [15][16] - The investment strategy includes a focus on international markets, particularly in Japan, Hong Kong, and Brazil, with a belief that Brazil's equity market will normalize over time [17] - Defensive sectors, including food production and healthcare, are prioritized, with an emphasis on acquiring undervalued stocks with strong free cash flow yields [18] Company Update - Night Watch acquired a controlling stake in KEDM Inc., enhancing its research capabilities and aligning with its investment strategy focused on value and catalysts [22][24]

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's journey from a political career to value investing, emphasizing the importance of risk management and long-term wealth growth [1] Group 1: Career Transition - The author initially pursued a career in politics but shifted to finance after facing challenges in 2019, recognizing the need for financial stability [1] - A sales role at a law firm from 2020 to 2022 allowed the author to excel and manage a team, contributing to sales strategy development [1] - The transition to an investment advisory role at Fidelity from 2022 to 2023 highlighted a conflict between the author's value investing approach and Fidelity's reliance on modern portfolio theory [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The author focuses on value investing, adopting an owner's mindset and a long-term perspective, avoiding short-selling strategies [1] - The experience gained from reading annual reports and studying public companies has been instrumental in assessing company prospects based on sales strategies [1] - The author's writing for Seeking Alpha serves as a platform to share investment opportunities discovered through personal investment experiences [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) shares, emphasizing the importance of using multiple valuation methods, particularly the Price-Earnings (PE) ratio and the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for a comprehensive analysis of bank shares [1][3][6]. Valuation Methods - The PE ratio for WBC shares is calculated at 19.9x based on a share price of $38.3 and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.92, which is slightly above the banking sector average PE of 19x [5]. - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for WBC is derived at $35.52, indicating a potential overvaluation compared to its current market price [5]. - The DDM is highlighted as a more robust method for valuing banks, taking into account consistent dividend payments [6][7]. Dividend Analysis - The DDM valuation formula is presented as Share price = full-year dividend / (risk rate – dividend growth rate), with last year's dividend of $1.66 assumed to grow consistently [8]. - Valuations using different risk rates (6% to 11%) yield a range of share price estimates, with a base valuation of $35.10 and an adjusted valuation of $34.05 based on a lower dividend payment [10]. - A gross dividend valuation, including franking credits, suggests a higher potential share price of $48.64 based on a forecast gross dividend of $2.30 [11]. Growth and Risk Considerations - The article provides a table showing various growth and risk rate scenarios, indicating that a 2% growth rate with a 6% risk rate could yield a valuation of $40.25, while a 3% growth rate at the same risk rate could lead to $53.67 [12]. - The analysis emphasizes the need to consider the bank's growth strategy, economic indicators, and management culture when evaluating investment opportunities in WBC [12][13].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the focus on value investing in Asia, particularly in Hong Kong, targeting stocks with significant discrepancies between market price and intrinsic value [1] - It highlights two main categories of investment opportunities: deep value balance sheet bargains and wide moat stocks, which are characterized by their strong competitive advantages [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves seeking deep value balance sheet bargains, such as net cash stocks and low price-to-book (P/B) ratio stocks [1] - The strategy also includes identifying wide moat stocks, which are high-quality businesses with sustainable competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Research Service - The research service, Asia Value & Moat Stocks, provides value investors with ideas and monthly updates on potential investment opportunities in the Asian equity market [1] - The service is led by an analyst with over a decade of experience in both buy and sell sides of the market, specializing in Asian equities [1]

Core Insights - OppFi Inc. (OPFI) shares have increased by 36.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry's decline of 7.9% and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's growth of 18.4% [1][9] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, OPFI's total net originations rose by 5.2% sequentially and 12.5% year over year, indicating a positive trend in revenue generation [5] - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the net charge-off as a percentage of total revenues decreased by 430 basis points, while the net charge-off as a percentage of average receivables fell by 480 basis points, reflecting improved loan quality [6] - Adjusted net income surged by 82.7% for the same nine-month period, leading management to raise the adjusted net income guidance for 2025 to a range of $137-$142 million from the previous estimate of $125-$130 million [7] Valuation Metrics - OPFI shares are trading at 6.04 times forward 12-month earnings per share, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.5 times [10] - The trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA ratio for OPFI is 5.07 times, compared to the industry average of 11.21 times, indicating that OPFI is undervalued [10] Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OPFI's 2025 revenues is $598 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 13.6% [13] - The consensus estimate for OPFI's 2025 earnings per share is $1.57, indicating a substantial year-over-year increase of 65.3% [13] Market Challenges - OPFI serves subprime/non-prime borrowers, which inherently increases the risk of credit defaults, with 28% of consumers in the 580-669 credit score range at risk of serious delinquency [14] - The company faces intense competition from firms like SoFi and Dave, which may impact its market share [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - AMC Networks (AMCX) shares appear to be undervalued, trading at 1.7 times free cash flow based on 2025 guidance, despite a leveraged balance sheet being a contributing factor [1] Financial Metrics - The company's valuation metrics indicate a low EV/EBITDA ratio, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various industries, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology companies such as Google and Nokia [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with sectors like consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]