Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during its upcoming policy meeting, following a similar cut in September, marking the first reduction of the federal-funds rate this year [1][2]. Group 1 - The government shutdown has hindered the Fed's access to official economic reports, prompting officials to rely on private surveys, state data, and financial-market signals to inform their decisions [2]. - With a cooling job market and inflation remaining approximately one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, officials are cautiously balancing their dual mandate, favoring a small pre-emptive rate cut in September to mitigate potential economic downturns [2][3]. - Investors are expected to focus on the tone of the Fed's press release and Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference, rather than the immediate policy decision, as they look for indications regarding the December meeting [3].

The Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing October 27, 2025 Deutsche Bank Research Institute As always, feel free to quote and reference the report. If so we would be grateful if you could attribute to the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. Feel free to direct people to this report and many others at www.dbresearch.com/research-institute. Authors Jim Reid Global Head of Macro and Thematic Research Henry Allen Macro Strategist Galina Pozdnyakova Research Analyst Introduction Almost everyone reading this has a ...

The median price of an existing home was $422,400 in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s down from a record high in June. - Getty Images Home prices are growing at the slowest pace in over two years as the housing market remains stagnant. That may be bad news for many homeowners across America — if the trend persists. As home sales stalled at the end of the summer, home prices reflected the market’s slow environment. Nationally, home prices grew just 1.5% in August from a ye ...

Core Insights - Inflation has risen above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in November [1] Economic Impact - The current inflation levels indicate a tightening monetary policy environment, which may affect borrowing costs and consumer spending [1]

Australia’s core inflation accelerated beyond expectations last quarter, complicating the Reserve Bank’s path to easing as policymakers weigh lingering price pressures and a cooling jobs market https://t.co/BupRjQTBqa ...

Monetary Policy & Currency - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the importance of allowing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) autonomy in its policy decisions [1] - The aim is to anchor inflation expectations and prevent currency volatility [1] - The statement was directed towards Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who favors low interest rates [1]

Core Insights - Australia's inflation accelerated in Q3, with consumer prices rising 3.2% year-over-year, the fastest pace in over a year, surpassing the 2.1% increase in Q2 and the 3% forecast by economists [1][2] Inflation Trends - The inflation rate has exceeded the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target band of 2%-3% for the first time since Q2 2024, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers in managing persistent price pressures [2] - RBA Governor Michelle Bullock noted that inflation in housing and market services was higher than expected, although it does not indicate runaway inflation [3] Economic Performance - Australia's economy grew by 1.8% year-over-year in Q2, marking the fastest growth since September 2023, outperforming the 1.6% expected by economists and the 1.3% seen in the previous quarter [4]

Market Overview - The equity market is currently disregarding the government shutdown, potentially viewing it as a positive factor, while also signaling a slowdown in the economy [1][13] - Major indexes closed at record highs for the week ending October 24th, with significant gains observed in October [1][13] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates only 18% of the economy is growing, a decline from 43% in August and 100% at the end of the previous year [5][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in September, slightly above the consensus estimate, bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.0% [6][15] - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2%, also resulting in a 3.0% rise over the past year [6][15] Housing Market - Existing home sales increased by 4.1% in September compared to the previous year, but the annual rate remains significantly below pre-COVID levels [11][12] - The current level of existing home sales is nearly 40% lower than the cycle peak, approaching the worst levels seen during the Great Recession [12][14] - Median home prices have stagnated since Spring 2024, with expectations of home price deflation in the coming quarters due to rising inventory [12][14] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending rose by 2.7% from April to August, despite a 1.2% decline in personal income during the same period, indicating reliance on savings drawdown [9][16] - Rising delinquencies in credit card and auto loans are early indicators of consumer distress, with mortgage delinquencies now exceeding levels seen during the COVID era [10][16] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a potential 25-basis point reduction anticipated at the upcoming meeting [8] - The economic outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued weakness in economic data influencing future monetary policy [8][16]

Economic Indicators - U.S. consumer confidence declined by 1.0 point to 94.6 in October, reflecting concerns over a softening labor market and high living costs [2][7] - The Expectations Index fell by 2.9 points to 71.5, remaining below the 80-point threshold that often signals an impending recession [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and 79,000 in July [2] Corporate News - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) raised its 2025 earnings outlook, projecting adjusted net earnings of at least $16.25 per share and net earnings of at least $14.90 per share [3][7] - The company reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $113.2 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with UnitedHealthcare revenues climbing 16% to $87.1 billion [3] - Despite the positive outlook, UnitedHealth anticipates significant pressure on its Medicaid business in 2026 [3][7] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) confirmed that recent interest rate cuts are effectively easing borrowing costs, with the Official Cash Rate (OCR) lowered by 50 basis points to 2.5% [4][7] - Financial conditions in New Zealand have improved, with credit flowing more easily across the economy [4] Legal and Regulatory Issues - Edison International (EIX) faces potential liability related to the Eaton Fire, with the U.S. Department of Justice suing Southern California Edison for over $40 million in costs [5] - The company's valuation has reportedly dropped from $30 billion to $22.6 billion since the fires [5] European Politics - Centrist groups in the European Parliament are demanding significant changes to the proposed €2 trillion seven-year budget for the EU, citing concerns over renationalization of funds and lack of parliamentary oversight [6][7]

Join our daily newsletter At The Bell to receive exclusive market insightsASX today – Australian shares have all but halted any movement heading towards open, with ASX 200 futures pointing to a 0.5-point tick-up as Oz traders hold their breath for the pivotal CPI print coming out before lunchtime.Listen to the HotCopper podcast for in-depth discussions and insights on all the biggest headlines from throughout the week. On Spotify, Apple, and more.The third-quarter consumer price index will form the cornerst ...