业接单仍平淡；日化、食品包装膜需求持续；预计下游开工率拐点于8月上旬到来。成本方面，市场对美国 关税政策的忧虑有所缓解，美国对俄罗斯施压、对伊朗制裁离场持续，近期国际油价走强。宏观方面，美 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 欧关税达成协议，中美双方将继续推动已暂停的关税展期90天。短期L2509预计震荡走势，日度K线关注72 免责声明 塑料产业日报 2025-07-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7387 | 2 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7442 | 4 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7424 | -1 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7387 | 2 | | 期货市场 | 成交量(日,手) | 244663 | 4959 持仓量(日,手) | 334157 | ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant increase on July 29, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil main contract rising by 3.81% to $69.25 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil main contract also saw a rise of 3.53%, closing at $71.77 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and oversupply expectations, provided that geopolitical situations remain controllable [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of the year, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, U.S. tariff policies, and increased production from OPEC+ [1]. - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated from a high of $83 per barrel in January to a low of approximately $58 per barrel in April, with a volatility range of $25 per barrel [1]. - In June, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI prices surging over $10 per barrel, reaching a peak of $78 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The increase in global oil supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, with OPEC+ accelerating production to capture market share [2]. - OPEC+ announced an unexpected production increase of 410,000 barrels per day on April 3, contributing to a significant drop in oil prices [2]. - The U.S. and other non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day this year, which aligns with the global demand increase forecasted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have caused rapid fluctuations in oil prices, with U.S. sanctions on Russia and tensions with Iran impacting market expectations [3]. - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant price increase, with WTI and Brent prices rising over 13% in a single day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and tariff risks [5]. - The cumulative production increase from OPEC+ from April to August is projected to reach 1.918 million barrels per day, potentially leading to oversupply and price declines [5]. - WTI prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $72 per barrel, with a mainstream range of $55 to $65 per barrel anticipated for the second half of the year [6].

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a short-term decline, with both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil reversing earlier gains of 1.5% to turn negative [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices have risen sharply, with Brent crude oil surpassing the $70 per barrel mark, increasing by nearly 0.9% during the day [1]

Core Insights - International oil prices increased on July 8, with light crude oil futures for August delivery rising by $0.40 to $68.33 per barrel, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1] - Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose by $0.57 to $70.15 per barrel, marking a 0.82% increase [1] Price Movements - New York Mercantile Exchange reported an increase in light crude oil prices [1] - London Brent crude oil prices also experienced a notable rise [1]

Group 1 - International oil prices are experiencing minor short-term fluctuations [1] - Iran has not yet decided on nuclear negotiations with the United States [1] - Iran's nuclear facilities have suffered significant damage [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China will increase gasoline and diesel prices effective from July 1, with gasoline up by 235 yuan per ton and diesel by 225 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.19 yuan for 95-octane gasoline [1][2] - The recent pricing cycle saw international oil prices initially rise due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, followed by a significant drop after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, resulting in an overall increase in average oil prices during the cycle [1][2] - The price adjustment will lead to an additional cost of approximately 9 yuan for filling a 50L tank, with an increase of about 1.3 yuan for every 100 kilometers driven for vehicles consuming 7-8L per 100 kilometers [1] Group 2 - This adjustment marks the 13th price change in 2025 and the sixth increase, with the overall trend for 2025 showing "six increases, five decreases, and two stasis" [2] - Analysts predict that the next price adjustment window on July 15, 2025, will likely see a significant decrease in fuel prices due to the recent drop in international oil prices and the easing geopolitical tensions [2]

Overview - Brent crude oil CFD is currently trading at 66.65, down by 0.15 (-0.22%) [1] - The last closing price was 66.80, with a daily opening at 66.48 [1] - The highest price today reached 67.20, while the lowest was 65.92 [1] Price Range - The 52-week high for Brent crude oil is 87.94, and the 52-week low is 58.40 [1]

Group 1 - Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on June 24, alleviating market concerns over tensions, leading to a decline in international oil prices [1] - NYMEX crude oil futures for August fell by $4.14 to $64.37 per barrel, a decrease of 6.04% [1] - ICE Brent crude oil futures for August dropped by $4.34 to $67.14 per barrel, a decrease of 6.07% [1] - China's INE crude oil futures for the main contract 2508 fell by 16.3 to 553.6 yuan per barrel, with a night session drop of 51.3 to 502.3 yuan per barrel [1] Group 2 - Trump stated on his social media platform that China can continue purchasing oil from Iran and expressed hope that China would also buy oil from the U.S. [2] - The White House clarified that Trump's comments do not indicate a relaxation of U.S. sanctions, emphasizing that the focus is on encouraging imports of U.S. oil rather than Iranian oil [2] - Historically, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on several Chinese refineries and ports for importing Iranian oil [2] Group 3 - By March 2025, China's oil purchases from the U.S. are projected to decrease by 90% year-on-year, from a peak of 29 million barrels per month to approximately 3 million barrels per month [4] Group 4 - In response to Trump's comments, China's Foreign Ministry stated that it will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [5]