US-China Trade & Technology War - The US is potentially imposing an export tax on companies exporting technology to China, which is unorthodox and possibly unconstitutional [1][2] - The administration's pursuit of revenue generation through trade policy and export controls, including high-end semiconductors, raises questions about the definition of "too advanced" technology [3] - Companies like NVIDIA and AMD have received initial China licenses for chip exports [3] - China expresses concern about information security and potential backdoors in US technology, particularly drones [5] - The US aims to create an American chip champion amidst Intel's challenges, suggesting potential dealmaking [6] - The long-term access of companies to the Chinese market remains uncertain due to the intensifying US-China competition [4][7] Semiconductor Industry & Export Controls - The administration assumes that inference compute is not a primary national security concern [9] - If Huawei can produce comparable chips, US chip controls might ease to allow US companies to compete [9] - The US is in a highly transactional phase, and the degree of concern about end-uses and economic competitiveness remains to be seen [10] - The argument exists that restricting American technology exports could lead China to develop and export its own technology [11] - China is pushing for an easing of the 20% fentanyl tariffs and high bandwidth memory (HBM) chip restrictions [13] - Restricting exports to constrain Chinese chip production could help US companies gain market share in China [16] China's Leverage & Response - China possesses significant leverage through its control over critical raw materials and rare earth licenses [17] - China could restrict licenses for critical inputs, potentially paralyzing US production lines [17][18]

Market Concerns & Government Regulations - Chinese state media expresses concerns over Nvidia's H20 chip, questioning its safety for China [1] - Nvidia faces allegations of installing backdoors in its chips as a condition for US government easing export curbs [2] - Export restrictions on H20 to China were initially imposed on national security grounds but later reversed by the Trump administration [2] Financial Implications & Export Controls - Reports suggest Nvidia and AMD may pay the US a 15% cut of revenues for China AI chip sales, including Nvidia's H20 and AMD's MI308 [3] - China is reportedly pushing for relaxation of export controls on advanced high bandwidth memory chips as part of tariff pause extension discussions [3] Company Statements - Nvidia denies having backdoors in its chips that would allow remote access or control [4] - Nvidia acknowledges following US government rules for participation in worldwide markets, without directly denying the 15% revenue cut [4]

How is this going to work. 15% of sales, 15% of the revenues that they make from those sales into the China market. Of the 20 when it comes to NVIDIA or AMD's equivalent.Once they start shipping those, they will get the export license. According to this report, if they pay that 15% into the US Treasury, that apparently is how it's going to work. There are legal questions around this. If this is categorized as an export tax, potentially there are legal challenges to this.But according to our reporting, this ...

Group 1 - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) stock has increased approximately 55% since the last coverage [1] - The article aims to analyze AMD's Q2 '25 results and uncover hidden insights [1] Group 2 - The author has a beneficial long position in AMD shares, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance [2] - The article expresses the author's own opinions without any compensation from the companies mentioned [2]

Market Dynamics - Nvidia can once again sell its powerful H20 chips in China due to the reversal of America's export controls [1] - Making H20 chips available to tech firms in China will remove hurdles that are slowing their growth [1]

Market Dynamics - The reversal of America's export controls allows Nvidia to sell its powerful H20 chips in China [1] - Making H20 chips available to tech firms in China will remove hurdles that are slowing their growth [1]

Market Dynamics - Nvidia can once again sell its powerful H20 chips in China due to the reversal of America's export controls [1] - Making H20 chips available to tech firms in China will remove hurdles that are slowing their growth [1]

China's Economy & Trade Talks - China's economy is in relatively good shape, with July data showing improvement compared to June, although growth is not exceeding year-ago levels [1][2] - China has included export controls in trade negotiations, giving them significant leverage, particularly concerning rare earths and critical minerals [3][5] - The inclusion of export controls has created a situation of mutually assured destruction, giving China a choke point over the United States economy [6] Manufacturing Sector - Despite PMI data suggesting weakness, the manufacturing sector in China remains strong and continues to export [9][10] - While exports to the United States have contracted, there has been a surge in exports to Asia, indicating the manufacturing machine is still productive [10] - Manufacturing's strength is crucial as China currently lacks other significant growth drivers [11] Security Concerns & Chip Industry - China is raising potential security risks with chips, potentially as a response to concerns about Huawei [6] - There are concerns about the future ability to geographically track chips, leading to worries about transshipment and potential circumvention of regulations [7]

China has top-flight models. But export controls left it struggling to run them https://t.co/5Mexnry4dL ...

Trade Talk Status - US-China trade talks in Stockholm concluded with mixed signals, Trump acknowledged Monday was not good, but today was better [1] - The talks ended without a confirmed 90-day pause on tariffs, a key market expectation [2] - Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative will brief President Trump, who will decide on the pause [2][3] - Another talk is expected in about 90 days, renewing focus on the August 12th deadline for tariff snapback [3] China's Economic Position - China's economy is "swimming in place" despite tariffs, indicating resilience [4] - China possesses negotiating leverage, exemplified by rare earth export controls [4] - China feels confident in its position [4] Tariff Impact and Future Scenarios - Companies relying on China imports, like toy companies, are experiencing pain, expecting it to last until at least 2026 [6] - The challenge lies in the uncertainty of future tariff levels, hindering production movement [7] - Toys and games are the most exposed sector from a consumer perspective due to reliance on China imports [8] - Tariff rates from China are converging with rates from elsewhere, potentially reducing the incentive to move production [9][10] - A realistic worst-case scenario involves tariffs staying at 30%, potentially leading to empty shelves and inflationary impacts [18] - Tariffs could reach close to 50% when combined with previous trade war tariffs and sectoral tariffs [19] US Strategy and Potential Concessions - The US may offer concessions on export controls and fentanyl tariffs to secure a meeting between President Trump and President Xi [12] China's Compliance and Economic Management - China has previously fallen short on commitments to buy US exports [15] - China is managing the situation by maintaining stable economic numbers and implementing stimulus measures [21][22] - China has kept interest rates at historic lows and increased fiscal activity [21]