Economic Outlook & Uncertainty - Trade negotiations are a relevant factor influencing the European economy, with predictions varying based on different outcomes [1] - High levels of uncertainty persist due to geopolitical risks and the unknown final outcome of trade negotiations [4][5] - The Euro area's growth rate is expected to be below 1% in 2025 and slightly above that in 2026, with risks tilted to the downside [9] - Investment is flat, and consumption is not recovering, indicating a weak economic situation [9][10] Monetary Policy - The ECB has reduced interest rates eight times, from 4% to 2%, and is in a good place to deal with the future [3] - Further interest rate cuts are unlikely to significantly improve the economy, and the focus should be on certainty in trade and fiscal policies [10][11] - The evolution of inflation is expected to be positive, with the possibility of undershooting the target being limited [6][7] - The ECB does not target any concrete level for the exchange rate but monitors its level and evolution, considering its impact on inflation [16] Inflation & Exchange Rate - The ECB is confident that inflation will reach 2%, with favorable factors including the exchange rate and the evolution of energy prices [17][18][19] - An exchange rate of 1.17 or even 1.20 is considered acceptable, but overshooting beyond that would be more complicated [14] Fiscal Policy & Market Risks - Increased defensive spending is supported, but fiscal sustainability is needed, as markets may not continue to overlook fiscal policy [21][22] - Concerns exist about a market event linked to perceived unsustainable fiscal policy, which could lead to higher yields and impact valuations [23][24]

Key takeaways from our recent client conversations around the world. June 30, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America M Idea The Weekly Worldview: The Hardest Questions: From Beijing to Berlin M A good friend of mine likes to say that the main reason that he forecasts is to find out why he was wrong. Our view of a meaningful deceleration in the US and the global economy from tariffs and other policies has yet to play out. We find ourselves waiting. So, while we wait, we take stock of the ...

Joining us now is Evercore chairman emeritus and black rockck co-founder Ralph Schlaststein right here on set. It's great to have you. Welcome.It's great to be here. Let's start right there. Uh because what what an incredible second quarter we had.Uh tariff tantrum. Is it over. Is is the fear about peak tariffs behind us.Well, I I think you can never say it's completely behind us because I don't think we have a absolutely certain path as to where the president and his team are going to take the tariff discu ...

President Trump expecting to see his long-awaited reconciliation bill on his desk by this Friday. Joining us right now is Joe Leavia. He's counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant.Good morning to you. Morning, Andrew. We are getting closer.We have a what do they call it. A voterama taking place uh today. What do you think has to happen to I mean we've had a couple of different people even on the show this morning who said there's still some other reconciliation issues that really have to take place bef ...

It does seem as if there are some risk positive stories at the margin. Then you can look at the 899 news from the United States as an example of that. And even some of the weakness in the data at the United States has been fed through into the lower rates narrative.So I suppose from that perspective, the the push higher in stocks makes sense. Is that too much complacency, though, in your view. I'm struggling with this market at the moment.Every input would seem bullish at the margin. As you say, yields are ...

June 23, 2025 12:53 AM GMT India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific Policy Impetus to Bolster Growth Growth indicators exhibit a modest recovery led by domestic demand. Macro stability indicators have improved, increasing flexibility for policy makers. Uncertainty from external conditions continues to weigh on growth, even as India appears better placed on a relative basis. 1) Growth – uneven recovery: High-frequency data in May suggest a mixed trend across indicators, with ones such as G ...

June 23, 2025 06:07 AM GMT Economics, Banks, Macro and Sovereign Credit Strategy | EEMEA CEE Trip Notes | From Politics to Policy | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | PKO BP (PKO.WA) | From | To | | Price Target | PLN 80.00 | PLN 91.00 | | Top Pick Added | OTPB.BU | PKO.WA | | OTP Bank (OTPB.BU) | | | | Price Target | HUF 28,700.00 | HUF 32,400.00 | | Top Pick Removed | OTPB.BU | PKO.WA | | Pekao SA (PEO.WA) | | | | Price Target | PLN 176.00 | PLN 209.00 | | | We visited Budapest, Warsaw and Prague ...

China Weekly: May Mixed Growth, Softer Fiscal Condition; June Weaker Home Sales High frequency: weaker home sales in June, softer port activities 30-city property sales declined further to -9% YoY in the first 21 days of June from - 3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -4% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 12% YoY and tier 3 cities declined by -6% YoY. Port cargo throughput and container throughput growth both softened to -1% YoY and 2% YoY in the first 15 days (vs 4% YoY and 7% YoY in May). ...

You look back and you're teaching a history class. What what would you blame that increase in prices on back in that time period. So I'll start with the fact that it was extremely global.So we saw that there were literally was a point at which not a single country in the world had inflation 2% or below. So it was everywhere. So you have to look to common factors.And I would say that the pandemic and the closing of the global economy and then the reopening of it in all cases with some support, that's that's ...

yield back. >> The gentleman's time has expired. The vice chairman of the full committee, Mr.. Huizenga of Michigan, is recognized for five minutes. >> Thank you, chair Hill and Chair Powell. Good to see you again.I got a lot to cover, so we're going to try and keep this concise. But following up a bit on what Chair Hill had been talking about, you know, you had said in January 29th, 2025, quote, we don't know what will happen with tariffs, with immigration, with fiscal policy and with regulatory policy. I ...