By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy Key Takeaways No matter what Fed officials may be saying, it will all come down to the data, specifically the labor market data. On that front, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the September jobs report (which will include nonfarm payrolls AND the unemployment rate) is scheduled to be released this week on November 20, so some of the "data fog†for the Fed should begin to get lifted. This article originally appeared on WisdomTree's website and is r ...

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decisions are currently under scrutiny, particularly regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, influenced by a mixed jobs report for September [1][2] - The focus is on whether there will be a divisive vote among the Fed governors, which could impact market perceptions and reactions [3][4] - Historical context is provided, noting past instances where Fed governors voted against the chair, indicating that such divisions are not unprecedented [5][6] Group 2 - The Fed's influence on the equity markets is questioned, with a suggestion that the credit markets are of greater concern to the Fed [3][6] - Despite recent rate cuts, the longer-end Treasury yields have not decreased significantly, indicating limited effectiveness of Fed actions on these rates [8][12] - The 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4%, suggesting that market movements are more driven by supply and demand rather than Fed policy [10][11] Group 3 - Businesses are facing uncertainty due to various economic factors, including tariffs, which complicates decision-making processes [17][18] - Companies are increasingly looking to technology and AI to manage costs and enhance productivity in response to economic pressures [19][20] - The Fed's actions are perceived to have a limited impact on business decisions, with a preference for stability in Fed policy amidst broader uncertainties [20]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline of 7% to approximately $85,000 as Asian markets opened weaker, reflecting a global sell-off influenced by US jobs data that did not clarify the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline [1][3] Market Overview - Wall Street set a negative tone with major indexes sharply lower due to renewed anxiety over stretched valuations, reminiscent of earlier tariff shocks under President Trump [3] - The latest US employment figures indicated a stronger job addition than expected in September, but a slight increase in the unemployment rate and downward revisions of previous months created a mixed outlook for the Fed [4] - Treasury yields decreased following the jobs data, with futures markets now pricing in a 40% chance of a December rate cut, up from 30% the previous day [5] Regional Market Performance - Asian markets mirrored the cautious sentiment, with MSCI's broad index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan falling around 1.8%, marking a weekly loss of approximately 3%, the steepest since early April [6] - Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.8% for the day and about 2.8% for the week, while Taiwan and South Korea saw declines of 2.7% and over 3%, respectively [6] Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market followed the risk reset, with analysts noting that if macroeconomic concerns escalate into panic, Bitcoin could face strong resistance around $75,000, although a short-term upward movement is more likely given current market dynamics [7] - Executives in the digital asset industry view Bitcoin's decline as a healthy market correction rather than the onset of a prolonged downturn, with Bitget's CEO suggesting the drop to around $87,000 is a reset [8] Cryptocurrency Performance - Current cryptocurrency prices include Bitcoin at $86,156 (down 6.9%), Ether at $2,819 (down 7.1%), and XRP at $1.99 (down 7.1%), with the total crypto market cap at $3.03 trillion (down 6%) [9]

Group 1: Employment and Economic Growth - The September jobs report showed payrolls increased by 119,000, indicating stronger-than-expected job growth, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [1][4] - There was notable growth in sectors such as education, healthcare, and construction, with construction employment surging as new factory projects begin [3][4][7] - GDP growth is projected at approximately 4.2% for the third quarter, up from 4% in the second quarter, suggesting a robust economic outlook prior to the government shutdown [4][11] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - An increase in labor force participation alongside a rise in the unemployment rate can indicate more individuals are actively seeking jobs, which is a positive sign for the economy [5][7] - The jobs report suggests that the economy is encouraging people to return to the workforce, particularly in construction and factory jobs [7][8] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Wage growth was reported at 3.8%, outpacing the inflation rate of 3%, yet a significant portion of the population still perceives prices as too high [19][20] - A Fox News poll indicated that 76% of voters view the economy negatively, highlighting a disconnect between economic indicators and public sentiment [20] Group 4: Government Policy and Economic Measures - The administration is considering reducing tariffs on various agricultural products to improve affordability for consumers [20][26] - There is potential for a dividend of at least $2,000 for middle and lower-income brackets, which could help alleviate financial pressures but may also raise inflation concerns [27][28]

Economic Performance - The recent jobs report indicated a significant increase of 119,000 new jobs, surpassing expectations of 51,000, suggesting a strong economy [1][21] - Out of the 119,000 jobs created, 97,000 were in the private sector, highlighting a shift from previous trends where government jobs dominated [7][16] Labor Market Insights - There is a growing desire among individuals to enter the workforce, with many actively seeking employment opportunities [2] - Real wages have increased by nearly $700, contrasting with a previous decline of approximately $3,000 during the prior administration, indicating improved financial conditions for families [10] Inflation and Economic Policy - Concerns about inflation persist, particularly regarding its impact on lower-income workers, but there are indications that food and energy prices have decreased [8][12] - The administration is considering further rate cuts to stimulate borrowing and investment in the workforce, which could support economic growth [6][14] Government Initiatives - The administration is promoting policies aimed at increasing disposable income for families, such as tax cuts and potential rebate checks funded by tariffs [9][17][18] - The focus remains on enhancing the private sector's role in job creation, contrasting with previous government-centric job growth [16][19]

Hello and welcome to morning brief market sunrise. I'm Ramzan Karali live from Yahoo Finance Studios in London. It's Thursday 20th November.Coming up on the show, the Nvidia effect. Its earnings have given tech stocks a supercharge. Investor focus now turns to the latest jobs report.Will it give the green light for a rate cut. and I'll bring you the earnings live on the show from the world's biggest retailer, Walmart. So, grab your coffee and let's own the morning.It's all about Nvidia this morning. It incr ...

Market Overview - The external market continues to weaken, leading to a contraction in the A-share market. Recent adjustments in overseas markets, particularly regarding AI development, have caused significant declines in major US tech companies. Additionally, the expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased, resulting in a decline in market risk appetite [1] - The A-share market has shown signs of adjustment influenced by related industry chains, with a general trend of high-low switching and a defensive style typical of year-end consolidation, characterized by sector rotation, unclear main lines, and balanced allocation [1] Market Performance - On Tuesday, both markets continued to adjust, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 30-day moving average. The Shenzhen Component Index also remained below its short-term moving averages, with intraday lows approaching the 60-day moving average. The total trading volume for the day was less than 2 trillion yuan, slightly increasing from Monday [1] - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector. In terms of investment style, large-cap blue-chip stocks showed relative resilience, while small and mid-cap stocks experienced larger declines [1] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating around the 4000-point mark, showing a rapid decline after reaching a new high last Friday. The Shenzhen Component Index is currently in a consolidation phase, operating below all short-term moving averages. Close attention is needed to see if short-term moving averages can be regained [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article mentions that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Economic Overview - The K-shaped economy indicates that the top 10-15% of income earners are thriving, while the bottom 50% are struggling, highlighting a significant disparity in economic recovery [2][4] - The cumulative rise of inflation since the 2020 recession has exceeded 25%, which is a critical issue for the lower-income demographic [4][18] Consumer Behavior - Retailers like Target are expected to provide insights into the spending habits of lower-income consumers, particularly how inflation affects their purchasing decisions [6][7] - Target has emphasized that the primary challenge for lower-income consumers is not job loss but rather the rising prices of essential goods [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Current predictions regarding a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with probabilities dropping from 70% to around 43% recently [10][11] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process appears to be increasingly influenced by a broader consensus among its members rather than solely by the Chair's perspective [12][14] Inflation and Economic Policy - There is ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding whether recent inflationary pressures are transitory or indicative of a more persistent issue [16][18] - The Fed is grappling with questions about labor supply and the neutral rate for the funds rate, which complicates their policy decisions [17]