Group 1 - European stocks are expected to open in mixed territory, with the U.K.'s FTSE and France's CAC 40 indexes anticipated to open lower, while Germany's DAX is expected to rise by 0.4% and Italy's FTSE MIB by 0.13% [2] - U.S. President Trump announced a 10% tariff on imported timber and lumber, along with a 25% duty on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and upholstered furniture, citing threats to the U.S. economy and national security [3] - A potential federal government shutdown is being closely monitored, with concerns that it could impact U.S. credit ratings, which were previously downgraded by Moody's in May [4][5] Group 2 - U.S. stock futures remained stable as investors aimed to conclude a strong September, while Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results due to a sixth consecutive month of contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity [6]

[Music] Hello and welcome to Morning Brief Market Sunrise. I'm Raman Karamali live from Yahoo Finance Studios in London. It's Monday, 29th September.Coming up on the show, President Trump is set to meet with top congressional leaders as the clock keeps ticking on a government shutdown. Global stocks get a boost after the latest US inflation reading comes in as expected. And gold prices, well, they keep on surging.So, grab your coffee and let's own the morning. [Music] President Trump will meet with the top ...

Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - President Trump is meeting with congressional leaders to discuss a short-term funding bill to avert a government shutdown, which must pass before October 1st [2][3] - Democrats are pushing for health care subsidies and restoration of budget cuts, while Republicans want to negotiate these issues after avoiding a shutdown [3] - A partial government shutdown could lead to federal workers not receiving paychecks, although essential services will continue [5][6] Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Global stocks are rising following the latest US inflation reading, with core inflation remaining stable at 0.3% for August and an annual headline number of 2.7% [9][10] - Gold prices have surged past $3,800 an ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns over the government shutdown, marking a year-to-date increase of over 40% [10][19] - Oil prices are declining as OPEC Plus is expected to increase production in November, reversing previous output cuts [12] Corporate Earnings and Market Trends - Nike is expected to increase its marketing budget significantly ahead of the World Cup, aiming to regain market share lost to smaller brands [20][21] - Alibaba's stock has risen nearly 50% in one month due to bullish analyst calls and significant investments in AI, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [46][48] - BYD, a major competitor in the EV market, anticipates exporting up to 1 million vehicles by 2025, even as it lowers overall sales targets [38]

Stagflation Definition and Components - Stagflation is defined as a combination of weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation [1] - Economic growth is measured by GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which tracks what's made inside US borders [2] - Inflation is tracked using CPI (Consumer Price Index), representing a household shopping basket, and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), a broader measure favored by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Job market health is assessed via the unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with weekly unemployment claims offering higher-frequency insights [5] Historical Context and Current Assessment - The 1970s experienced significant stagflation with unemployment exceeding 7-8%, double-digit inflation, and contracting GDP [6] - The pandemic period saw a different pattern: initial COVID impact led to unemployment spikes and GDP decline, but without immediate price increases (stag without flation) [7] - In 2022, stimulus measures contributed to inflation exceeding 9%, while the economy contracted modestly and unemployment remained low [7] - Currently, unemployment is moderate, PCE is in the high 2% range, and GDP is relatively strong, not indicative of 1970s-style stagflation [8] Market and Economic Indicators to Watch - Precious metals, such as gold (up over 40% this year) and silver (approaching 60%), tend to perform well during periods of elevated inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] - Key data points to monitor include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with particular attention to services inflation (shelter, insurance, healthcare costs) [9] - Energy prices and the strength of the US dollar are important factors, as an oil price surge or a weaker dollar could quickly reignite headline inflation [9][10] - Real incomes (workers' paychecks after inflation) should be monitored relative to demand; a decline in savings and increased credit card usage could signal potential issues [10][11]

Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions indicating a lowercase stagflation since the pandemic [1][2] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, which reflects domestic production, while GNP tracks earnings of Americans globally [2][3] Inflation Metrics - Key inflation indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), with the latter being favored by the Federal Reserve for its broader scope [3][4] - Distinction between headline inflation, which includes food and energy, and core inflation, which excludes these volatile components, is crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] Employment Indicators - The unemployment rate and monthly payroll changes are monitored closely, along with weekly unemployment claims, to gauge labor market health [5] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s stagflation, unemployment exceeded 7-8% with double-digit inflation and contracting GDP [6] Current Economic Conditions - Presently, unemployment is modest, PCE is in the high twos, and GDP remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario like the 1970s [7][8] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver nearing 60% this year, reflecting a response to elevated inflation and current interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to watch include jobs data, CPI, PCE, and GDP, with a focus on services inflation, shelter costs, and healthcare expenses [9] - Fluctuations in oil prices or a weaker dollar could quickly impact headline inflation, necessitating close monitoring of real incomes versus consumer demand [10] Conclusion - There is a potential risk of lowercase stagflation, but it is unlikely to escalate to the levels seen in the 1970s or 80s based on current observations [11]

Economic Overview - Stagflation is characterized by weak or negative growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, with current conditions suggesting a lowercase stagflation rather than the severe type seen in the 1970s [1][2][11] - Economic growth is measured by GDP, while GNI and CPI are also important indicators to watch [3][4][5] - Current inflation metrics show PCE in the high twos and GDP growth remains strong, indicating that the economy is not in a severe stagflation scenario [7][8] Market Trends - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with gold up over 40% and silver approaching 60% this year, driven by elevated inflation and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] - The stock market is experiencing volatility, with September historically being a weak month for stocks, yet many strategists believe there is still potential for growth [12][14] Investment Opportunities - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as having a unique opportunity due to their low valuation relative to large caps, with expectations of significant outperformance in the coming years [17][20] - Energy sector stocks are also noted for their potential, particularly in the context of rising demand for natural gas and data centers, with Comstock Resources being a specific example of a stock to watch [27][28] AI and Technology Sector - The AI sector continues to attract investment, with companies like Nvidia leading the charge, and there is a growing interest in software companies that are integrating AI into their offerings [61][63] - Autodesk and DataDog are identified as strong investment picks due to their unique market positions and growth potential in AI applications [72][75] International Market Dynamics - International stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks this year, with a notable shift in capital flows, although concerns about economic conditions in regions like Germany and the UK remain [88][92] - The difference in performance between international and U.S. stocks has narrowed, suggesting a potential normalization in market dynamics [92]

[Music] That's the closing bell on Wall Street and now it's market domination overtime. We're giving you full coverage of all the moves to get you up to speed on the action from today's trade. Guy who finances Jared Blickery joining us here to break it all down.Jared, thank you Josh. Nice comeback Friday. We're seeing a lot of green on our screen here at least in terms of the major averages.We'll start with the NASDAQ up about 100 points or 4/10en of 1%. Here's the day's price action. We had a little green, ...

Market Overview - Wall Street is on track to end the week higher, with the Dow up approximately 360 points, S&P 500 up about 0.6%, and NASDAQ up about 0.4% [2][3] - The Dow is up 0.8% for the day, while the NASDAQ is down about 0.67% for the week, marking the worst performance since August 1st [3][4] - The 10-year Treasury yield has increased by one basis point, indicating a trend of rising yields since Wednesday [5] Inflation and Federal Reserve Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for August is reported at 2.9%, consistent with July's figures, suggesting inflation is stable but not accelerating [11][12] - Federal Reserve officials express concerns about persistent inflation, with some suggesting that productivity gains from AI could mitigate inflationary pressures [13][14] - The next jobs report is anticipated to be crucial for the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates, especially if it indicates a soft job market [14][16] Tariff Implications - President Trump's new tariff threats, including a 50% duty on certain pharmaceuticals and furniture, are causing concern in the affected industries, particularly in the furniture sector [17][18] - Companies like Wayfair and RH are adapting by diversifying their supply chains away from China, while pharmaceutical companies with U.S. manufacturing facilities are less affected by the tariffs [19][20] - The impact of these tariffs on inflation and economic growth is expected to vary by industry, with some sectors facing more significant challenges than others [22][23] Digital Asset Treasuries - Over 180 public companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, indicating a growing trend in digital asset treasuries [74] - Breer Holdings is rebranding as Soulmate, focusing on a Solana-based digital asset treasury, highlighting the shift towards blockchain technologies that can handle high transaction volumes [75][87] - The emergence of digital asset treasuries is seen as a response to previous regulatory challenges and market inefficiencies, with a focus on building actual infrastructure to support these assets [91][92] Weight Loss Drug Market - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market is projected to potentially reach $100 billion annually within the next decade, driven by innovations and expanded indications beyond obesity [106][108] - Current injectable GLP-1 drugs show weight loss efficacy between 12% to 20%, with oral formulations expected to be slightly less effective [110][111] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate the market, but Amgen is also making strides with late-stage trials for its weight loss drug [105][116]

Core Viewpoint - Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel LLC, has publicly criticized President Trump's tariff policy, labeling it as "anti-American" and favoring "the big and the connected" [1][2]. Group 1: Criticism of Tariff Policy - Griffin expressed that the line of businesses seeking tariff exemptions is "nauseating," highlighting concerns over crony capitalism and fairness in economic policies [2]. - He warned that government intervention in selecting economic winners and losers ultimately leads to negative outcomes for all [3]. - Griffin cautioned companies against relying on favors from the current administration, suggesting that this could backfire with a change in leadership [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Senator Elizabeth Warren and economists have attributed rising goods prices in the U.S. to Trump's trade and tariff policies, with 72% of CPI components exceeding the Federal Reserve's inflation target [6]. - Despite the criticism, Trump's tariffs have generated nearly $350 billion in revenue, raising significant discussions about their impact on the U.S. economy and trade policy [6]. Group 3: Historical Context of Griffin's Criticism - This is not the first instance of Griffin criticizing Trump's economic policies; he has previously expressed concerns about Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve and the potential risks involved [4]. - Earlier in the year, Griffin also warned that the administration's tax cuts and focus on low-wage manufacturing could lead to stagflation [5].

Core Viewpoint - TS Lombard is monitoring the potential for a stagflation scenario in the US economy, reminiscent of the 1970s, despite most forecasters being optimistic about economic resilience [1][2][6] Economic Conditions - Stagflation is characterized by economic slowdown coupled with high inflation, posing a greater challenge for policymakers compared to typical recessions [2] - Recent inflation data has been relatively tame, and economic growth has been strong, leading most forecasters to consider stagflation a fringe risk [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has restarted its rate-cutting cycle, which could be a misstep according to TS Lombard, as concerns about the labor market may be overstated [3][4] - Historical context is provided, indicating that the Fed's previous rate cuts in the late 1960s preceded a spike in inflation [4][6] Demand Dynamics - TS Lombard identifies four factors that could lead to a re-acceleration of demand in 2026, potentially increasing consumer prices: 1. **Pent-up Demand**: As uncertainties around tariffs and the job market diminish, consumer spending may increase [5] 2. **Fed Easing**: Looser monetary policy is expected to quickly impact sensitive sectors like housing and consumer goods, with new home sales rising by 20% in August [5] 3. **Other Central Banks Easing**: Many central banks have been cutting rates, which could stimulate global growth in 2026 [7] 4. **Fiscal Stimulus**: Policies from the Trump administration and other countries, such as Germany and China, are anticipated to boost demand [7][8]