Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved record net revenues of RMB2 billion (USD285 million), marking the highest in the global LiDAR industry [39] - Shipments exceeded 500,000 units in 2024, more than doubling the total from 2023, with December alone setting an industry record of 100,000 monthly shipments [39] - The company reported a full-year non-GAAP net profit of RMB14 million (USD1.9 million), a significant improvement from a non-GAAP net loss of RMB241 million (USD34 million) in 2023 [41] - The blended gross margin for Q4 2024 was 39%, down from the previous quarter due to a shift in product mix [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company shipped over 20,000 units to its robotics business in December 2024, indicating significant growth in this sector [40] - For 2025, the company projects total shipments of 1.2 million to 1.5 million units, with nearly 200,000 units expected to come from high-margin robotic LiDAR [8][9] - The ATX LiDAR, priced at approximately $200, is anticipated to contribute significantly to total shipments in 2025, with expectations of high adoption rates among OEMs [44][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The adoption of ADAS in China is projected to grow from 8% in 2023 to 70% by 2030, indicating a transformative decade ahead for the industry [10] - LiDAR integration in EVs in China is expected to surge from 8% in 2023 to 20% in 2025 and then to 56% by 2030 [13] - The company has secured design wins for 120 vehicle models across 22 OEMs worldwide, including 9 out of the top 10 largest automakers by market cap in China [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its leadership in the LiDAR market by focusing on the growing demand for ADAS and robotics applications [6][29] - The strategy includes launching new production lines in Q1 2025, with an expected annualized production capacity of 2 million units by the end of the year [29] - The company is committed to lowering barriers to LiDAR adoption and driving technological equality, with a focus on cost-effective solutions [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving GAAP profitability of RMB200 million to RMB350 million in 2025, with non-GAAP profits projected to soar to RMB350 million to RMB500 million [50] - The company anticipates a strong year in 2025, driven by increased demand from both ADAS and robotics sectors [42] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a healthy gross margin of around 40% while continuing to invest in R&D [49][65] Other Important Information - The company has deepened collaborations with major clients such as BYD and Great Wall Motors, which are ramping up their strategic upgrades in intelligent driving technologies [24][25] - The JT Mini LiDAR is being positioned as a leading product in the robotics market, with significant orders expected in 2025 [31][46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for 2025 and quarterly volume trajectory - Management provided revenue guidance of RMB520 million to RMB540 million for Q1 2025, with expectations of approximately 200,000 units shipped [55][56] - The ATX is expected to have an annual price decline, while gross profit margins are anticipated to remain close to 40% [58][59] Question: Long-term potential of the robotics LiDAR market - Management indicated that the robotics market could be several times larger than the passenger vehicle business, with high margins expected to persist [71][76] Question: Further cost reduction and technology advancements - Management noted limited room for further cost reductions on the ATX platform, emphasizing the importance of maintaining product reliability and performance [94][95] Question: ADAS LiDAR adoption in overseas markets - Management clarified that LiDAR is applicable to both EV and ICE vehicles, and the company is optimistic about growth prospects in overseas markets [130] Question: Long-term competitive landscape of ADAS LiDAR market - Management acknowledged that while exclusivity with OEMs is not guaranteed, the company's performance leadership and cost competitiveness are key advantages [140][141]

2025年3月11日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Leapmotor (9863 HK) 竞争性定价 B10 在2024年第四季度实现强劲的 利润率。 Leapmotor 推出了其 B10 3月10日的EV发布，预售价范围在人民币109,800-1 39,800。具备激光雷达和城市NOA功能型号的价格低至人民币129,800。我们 认为这样的价格具有竞争力。考虑到Leapmotor利用Qualcomm 8650芯片进行 自主研发的自动驾驶，我们认为许多投资者仍然低估了Leapmotor的研发能力 。因此，我们将其在FY25E年的B系列销量上调25,000单位。我们还将其在FY2 5E年的总销量上调30,000单位至0.48mn单位。 在FY25E实现可能的盈亏平衡，得益于规模经济的扩大和强劲的2024年第 四季度利润率。 Leapmotor的2024年第四季度毛利率环比上升5.2个百分点至1 3.3%，符合其盈利预警。其2024年第四季度收入环比增长37%至人民币135亿 元，净利润为人民币8100万元，甚至强于预期。 我们之前的预测 我们预计， 凭借Leap 3.5架构在降低成本方面的帮 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Leapmotor, indicating potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][16]. Core Views - Leapmotor's competitive pricing for the new B10 EV and strong margins in 4Q24 enhance confidence in sales performance. The FY25E sales volume is revised up by 7% to 0.48 million units, with expectations of a minimal net loss in FY25E and a net profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E [1][6]. - The company's in-house autonomous driving and chassis capabilities are seen as undervalued, potentially leading to better-than-expected gross profit margins for the B series [1][6]. - The investor day on March 11 is anticipated to showcase technologies that could positively impact share price [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show significant growth, with FY24E at RMB32.16 billion, FY25E at RMB51.02 billion, and FY26E at RMB57.54 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92.1%, 58.6%, and 12.8% respectively [2][11]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 8.4% in FY24E to 11.2% in FY25E and 12.3% in FY26E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][11]. - Net profit is projected to transition from a loss of RMB98 million in FY25E to a profit of RMB1.26 billion in FY26E, showcasing a significant turnaround [2][11]. Sales and Market Performance - Leapmotor's B10 EV was launched with a competitive pre-sale price range of RMB109,800-139,800, with the model featuring LiDAR priced as low as RMB129,800 [1][6]. - The company reported a 37% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase in 4Q24, reaching RMB13.5 billion, with a net profit of RMB81 million, exceeding previous forecasts [1][6]. - The gross margin for 4Q24 rose to 13.3%, up 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency [1][6]. Valuation - The target price for Leapmotor has been raised from HK$40.00 to HK$50.00, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.2x for FY25E, aligning with the average for Chinese new energy vehicle start-ups [3][6]. - Current market capitalization stands at HK$55.48 billion, with a current share price of HK$41.50, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent correction in the Nasdaq Composite presents a buying opportunity for quality stocks, specifically Alphabet and Microsoft, which are now more attractively priced than earlier in the year [1]. Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet's shares are down approximately 20% from their all-time highs in early February, resulting in a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.5, indicating an attractive valuation [2]. - The company is a leader in digital advertising, with Google being the largest platform globally and YouTube ranking fourth [3]. - Alphabet is heavily investing in artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance search results and create new ad formats, which could significantly increase monetization opportunities [4]. - The Gemini 2.0 model is improving Alphabet's capabilities in multimodal search, and its Veo 2 text-to-image video generator is outperforming competitors [5]. - Google Cloud, Alphabet's cloud computing division, reported a 30% revenue growth and a 142% increase in segment income last quarter, indicating a profitability inflection point [6]. - Alphabet is also advancing in quantum computing and autonomous driving, with its Waymo unit being the only provider of paid robotaxi rides in the U.S. [7]. Group 2: Microsoft - Microsoft, known for its Office 365 productivity tools, also owns the second-largest cloud computing business and operates various platforms including LinkedIn and GitHub [8]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a subscription model for its software, driving growth and embracing AI through significant investments in OpenAI [9]. - Azure, Microsoft's cloud computing unit, experienced a 31% revenue growth last quarter, with Azure AI revenue soaring 157% year over year [10]. - Microsoft 365 AI copilots are a significant growth opportunity, offering AI assistance to users for various tasks, which could lead to high adoption rates if proven effective [11][12]. - Following the market pullback, Microsoft's stock trades at a forward P/E of 25 based on fiscal year 2026 estimates, presenting a reasonable valuation for a leading tech company [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest fiscal expansion with a focus on technology and consumption, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The fiscal package includes a Rmb2 trillion expansion, with a significant portion aimed at supporting technology innovation and consumption, although the latter remains modest [2][4]. - The emphasis on accelerating AI adoption and autonomous driving reflects a strategic pivot towards tech innovation, which may stimulate market activity [3][4]. - The report highlights a gradual approach to debt restructuring, focusing on economic development rather than just debt reduction, which may impact the property and stock markets positively [5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The augmented fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to expand by Rmb2 trillion, increasing the budget deficit from 3% to 4% of GDP [2]. - Key components of the fiscal package include a Rmb300 billion increase in long-term treasury bonds and a Rmb500 billion increase in local government special bonds [2][8]. Technology Focus - The government aims to bolster tech innovation by enhancing the market ecosystem and supporting AI applications and intelligent terminals [3][8]. - There is a commitment to promote the healthy development of the platform economy to stabilize the job market and boost consumption [3]. Consumption Support - Within the Rmb2 trillion stimulus, approximately 25% is allocated to consumption-related initiatives, including a Rmb300 billion trade-in program and wage hikes for civil servants [4]. - The report notes that while there are pledges to improve access to public services for migrant workers and enhance healthcare and elderly care, the specifics remain vague [4]. Debt Restructuring - The focus on local government debt resolution is shifting towards economic development, with an emphasis on preventing debt defaults by property developers [5]. - The report suggests that structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to support the property and stock markets, although details on implementation are still lacking [5].

Core Insights - Baidu, Inc. has experienced a 12.6% increase in shares over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 9.3, as it transitions from an Internet-centric business to an AI-focused technology leader [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Baidu's total revenues slightly declined by 2% year-over-year to RMB34.1 billion ($4.68 billion), while Baidu Core revenues increased by 1% to RMB27.7 billion ($3.8 billion) [2] - The AI Cloud business showed significant growth, achieving a 26% year-over-year increase in Q4 2024, which helped mitigate a 7% decline in the traditional online marketing business [3] Strategic Developments - Baidu's ERNIE foundation model handled approximately 1.65 billion API calls daily in December 2024, with external API calls growing by 178% quarter-over-quarter [6] - The company plans to open-source its upcoming ERNIE 4.5 series and make ERNIE Bot free for users to enhance market awareness and adoption [7] - AI-enabled features in Baidu Wenku reached 94 million monthly active users in December 2024, marking a 216% year-over-year increase [8] Autonomous Driving Initiatives - Baidu's Apollo Go service provided over 1.1 million rides in Q4 2024, a 36% increase year-over-year, and surpassed nine million total rides in January 2025 [9] - The company has secured permits for autonomous driving testing in Hong Kong, expanding its market presence [10] Competitive Landscape - Baidu faces competition in the AI cloud market from Alibaba and Tencent, which have strong enterprise relationships and financial resources [11] - The autonomous driving sector is becoming increasingly competitive with emerging players like Xpeng and WeRide [11] Valuation Metrics - Baidu's current forward 12-month P/S ratio is 1.65x, significantly lower than the Zacks Internet - Services industry average of 5.57x, indicating a discounted valuation [12] Financial Position - As of December 31, 2024, Baidu held RMB139.1 billion ($19.06 billion) in cash and equivalents, and has repurchased over $1 billion in shares since the beginning of 2024 [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is $18.73 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.31%, while earnings estimates have increased by 3.9% over the past 30 days [16] Future Outlook - Baidu is positioned to benefit from continued AI adoption and autonomous driving expansion, with expectations for gradual improvement in its advertising business and strong momentum in the AI Cloud sector [19] - The current stock price may represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors, given the company's technology leadership and strategic focus on high-growth areas [20]

Core Insights - The autonomous driving industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the ride-hailing sector, with companies like Uber and Baidu well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [2][3][4]. Industry Overview - The autonomous ride-hailing market is projected to reach between $11 trillion to $12 trillion globally, driven by advancements in AI and battery technology that will lower the cost per mile of autonomous driving to approximately $0.25 [4]. - The low cost of autonomous vehicles is expected to create substantial new demand for travel, benefiting companies that are strategically positioned in this market [5]. Uber - Uber is adapting to the growth of autonomous ride-hailing by partnering with major autonomous-driving software companies like Waymo, allowing it to serve as a marketplace for both human-driven and self-driving vehicles [6][7]. - Although Uber does not own its self-driving technology, it leverages its extensive customer base and operational expertise to create value through partnerships, such as bringing Waymo's services to Austin and Atlanta in 2025 [8]. - This neutral stance enables Uber to collaborate with various partners, potentially increasing its addressable market despite a lower share of commission [9]. - Uber can apply its partnership strategy across its other businesses, such as Uber Eats and logistics, to strengthen its position in the evolving autonomous mobility landscape [10]. Baidu - Baidu is also positioned in the autonomous ride-hailing industry but focuses on developing its own autonomous driving platform, Apollo, and offering ride-hailing services under the Apollo Go brand [11]. - The Apollo platform has emerged as a leader in autonomous driving software in China, with Apollo Go providing over 1.1 million rides in Q4 2024 and achieving fully driverless operations across China since February 2025 [12]. - Baidu aims to expand its ride-hailing services from 12 cities in China to 65 cities by 2025 and over 100 cities by 2030, with plans to enter international markets, starting with Hong Kong [13]. - Despite being an early mover, Baidu faces challenges such as regulatory hurdles and financial constraints, but its strong relationships with regulators and solid financial position provide a foundation for its ambitions [14].

Core Insights - China's technology sector is experiencing significant advancements, with major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, and PDD Holdings leading the charge in AI and emerging technologies [2][8] Group 1: Technological Advancements - DeepSeek, an AI startup, is at the forefront of China's tech revolution, recently launching its R2 model, which enhances coding capabilities and multilingual reasoning [3] - China's semiconductor industry holds over 25% of the global market share in semiconductor packaging and more than 50% in advanced packaging, leveraging technologies like 2.5D/3D stacking [4] - Robotics innovations were showcased at CES 2025, with Unitree Robotics presenting humanoid and quadrupedal robots, highlighting China's rapid progress in this field [5] - Electric vehicle technology is advancing, with companies like Zeekr and Great Wall Motor displaying innovative models, supported by suppliers like Hesai, whose lidar units have dropped in price from $80,000 in 2017 to around $200 in 2025 [6] - Augmented reality is gaining traction, with companies like Xreal and Rokid presenting advanced AR glasses and eyewear, reflecting China's comprehensive approach to technological innovation [7] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Tencent has launched its Hunyuan Turbo S model, which delivers responses within a second, significantly outperforming competitors and matching capabilities of DeepSeek's models [10][11] - Alibaba is investing $53 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, positioning itself as a leader in AI with the upcoming release of its QwQ-Max-Preview model [14][15] - Baidu is focusing on autonomous driving through a partnership with CATL to develop competitive driverless vehicles and plans to launch its upgraded Ernie 4.5 AI model [16][17][18]

Industry Overview - China's technology landscape in 2025 is characterized by significant advancements across various sectors, positioning the nation as a global technology powerhouse with major players like Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, and PDD Holdings investing heavily in AI and emerging technologies [1] - The semiconductor sector is making strategic advances, holding over 25% of the global market share in semiconductor packaging and more than 50% in advanced packaging, despite not leading in cutting-edge chip fabrication [3] - Robotics innovations are showcased at CES 2025, with companies like Unitree Robotics demonstrating advanced humanoid and quadrupedal robots, while electric vehicles are highlighted by firms like Zeekr and Great Wall Motor [4] - Augmented reality is gaining traction, with companies like Xreal and Rokid presenting innovative AR solutions, reflecting China's comprehensive approach to technological innovation [5] Company Highlights - DeepSeek, an AI startup, has accelerated the release of its R2 model, promising improved coding capabilities and multilingual reasoning at a lower cost compared to Western competitors [2] - Tencent has unveiled its Hunyuan Turbo S model, which delivers responses within a second and matches the capabilities of competitors like DeepSeek, positioning itself to capture substantial market share in the AI sector [7][8] - Alibaba is investing $53 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years, aiming to democratize AI technology with the upcoming release of its QwQ-Max model and open-sourcing initiatives [10][11] - Baidu is focusing on autonomous driving through a partnership with CATL to develop competitive driverless vehicles and plans to launch its upgraded Ernie 4.5 AI model, which will also be made open source [12][13][14]

Core Insights - The autonomous vehicle industry is rapidly advancing, with Waymo's robotaxis achieving significant milestones, including 5 million rides and over 25 million miles driven, and plans for expansion into new cities by 2025 [1] - Mobileye Global is a key player in the autonomous driving sector, providing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and a comprehensive Mobileye Drive platform [2] - Lyft plans to introduce Mobileye-powered robotaxis in Dallas by 2026, with intentions to scale across multiple cities [4] - Luminar Technologies advocates for LiDAR technology in autonomous vehicles, despite facing cash burn and competition from Mobileye's imaging radar [7][8] - Aptiv, through its joint venture Motional, is testing Level 4 autonomous driving technology and has secured significant new business bookings [12][13] Group 1: Industry Developments - The age of autonomous vehicles is approaching, with increasing adoption of robotaxis and regulatory support from the new administration [1] - Waymo's success has revived interest in the robotaxi market, attracting potential partners and operators [5] Group 2: Key Companies - Mobileye Global is recognized for its advanced driver assistance systems and the Mobileye Drive platform, which utilizes a combination of cameras and AI technology [2][3] - Luminar Technologies emphasizes the advantages of its LiDAR technology, claiming superior range and precision compared to camera-based systems [8][9] - Aptiv's partnership with Hyundai in the Motional venture is focused on developing Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities, with significant operational milestones achieved [11][12]