Where do these negotiations stand. What is the EU specifically willing to accept and on what terms. Yeah, so now they're sort of dawning to this realization that basically this flat tariff, this 10% that the Trump administration has been talking about is basically something that is non-negotiable, which I think for many people was something that was actually pretty clear quite early on in these conversations.Now, it seems that the Europeans have accepted this and are saying, okay, we're going to we're going ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - The Trump administration's spending bill is projected to increase the US deficit by $33 trillion [1] - White House officials claim the bill will protect and strengthen Medicaid for the needy, pregnant women, children, and sick Americans [2] - The administration projects 3% growth from the bill, adding $4 trillion to revenue, positioning it as a deficit reducer [2] - Economists criticize the GOP for using "accounting creative writing" to mask the $4 trillion cost of the tax bill [3] - The White House Council of Economic Advisers believes the bill will reduce the national debt, a claim considered absurd by some economists [8] Market & Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about US debt, the stock market initially reacted positively to the bill [10] - The bond market is less enthusiastic than the stock market, and the dollar has performed poorly against other currencies [11] - Some believe the stock market's optimism is fueled by hopes that AI will change the world [11] Trade & Tariffs - Negotiations are slowing because President Trump threatens to impose more tariffs even after a deal [12] - No one has permission to make actual deals for the United States except for the president [13] - Imposing new tariffs upsets the apple cart and restarts negotiations from scratch [14] - The president could tear up trade agreements and demand new ones, undermining commitment [15] Immigration & Labor - The Trump administration is rethinking deportation policies for migrants working in industries like hospitality and agriculture [17] - The administration is considering a temporary pass for farm workers where farmers can have some control [18] - Uncertainty around immigration policies makes it difficult for farmers and hospitality companies to plan, as workers may not show up due to fear of ICE [22]

Confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers edged up in June, reflecting resilience in the face of the escalating US tariff campaign https://t.co/nzgPtWvEE7 ...

The Trump administration has repeatedly promised 90 trade deals in 90 days. It was an ambitious pledge to begin with, but this afternoon with only 10 days left in that timeline, it appears the administration is only one and a half agreements in place. Naturally, the goalpost moving has already begun.Treasury Secretary Scott Besset now suggesting negotiations could be wrapped up by Labor Day. And Kevin Hasset, director of the National Economic Council, maintains more deals will happen whenever lawmakers pass ...

Canada. I put a charge on some of our companies and Canada's been a very difficult country to deal with uh over the years. Uh you know, we hear Canada, we have a great relationship with the people of Canada, but it's been very difficult and they put a charge and they were a little bit early.We found out about it. So, and we have all the cards. We have all every single one.We don't want to do anything bad, but uh they have uh economically we have such power over Canada. I'd rather not use it. But they did so ...

Economic Outlook - Despite the trade truce, economic numbers appear soft, necessitating a broader perspective [1] - Macro policy improvements in September of last year, along with front-loaded activity in Q1, led to solid data in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year [2] - The underlying economic momentum is moderating due to trade tariff issues with the US and increasing external uncertainty [2][3] - The baseline expectation is for sequential growth of the Chinese economy to slow from approximately 66% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 to around 35% in Q2, and further to 3% in Q3 [3] - PMI numbers align with expectations of moderating economic momentum [4] Sector Performance - Diverging trends exist across different sectors, with China's exports to the US down 40% in April and May [5] - Sectors receiving policy support, such as training subsidies and equipment upgrades, are performing well [6] - The housing sector continues to be a drag on the economy and has not yet bottomed out [6] - Consumer sentiment outside of policy support areas remains at a historical low [7] Policy Implications - Domestic and consumption support are crucial for policy focus this year [7] - Subsidies for consumer durables and autos have shown some impact, but their effect will fade by year-end [7] - Further policy support, particularly for services consumption, is needed [8]

President Donald Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan, citing what he said was the country’s unwillingness to accept rice exports from the US. https://t.co/PRmNY49cuy ...

Core Insights - Strattec Security (STRT) benefits from over 90% of its U.S. sales qualifying for tariff-free or reduced-tariff treatment, providing a cost advantage and stability against potential tariff increases [1][7] - Only 6% of STRT's total sales are expected to be impacted by the latest tariffs, indicating a robust business model less vulnerable to financial damage from tariffs [2][7] - STRT has implemented measures to mitigate tariff-related costs, achieving a reduction of approximately 30% through changes in shipping, sourcing, and pricing strategies [3][7] Company Comparison - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. (AXL) is in a decent position regarding tariffs, with about 90% of its products adhering to USMCA trade rules, but it is not as well-prepared as STRT [4] - BorgWarner (BWA) anticipates that tariffs will negatively affect its profits this year and plans to pass these costs onto customers rather than finding ways to mitigate them [5] Financial Performance - STRT's stock has increased by 145.1% over the past year, contrasting with a 0.6% decline in the broader industry composite [6] - The company trades at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.18x, significantly below the industry average of 27.09x [9]

Economic Outlook & GDP - Consensus view, including CBO and Fed, anticipates GDP growth slowdown due to tariffs and headwinds like student loan payments restarting [3][4] - Potential for stagflation exists if tariffs of $400 billion lead to either higher inflation or lower earnings [2][5] - US GDP growth may slow to 1%-15% in the next 12 months, but the US growth outlook remains stronger than other countries like Europe [14][15] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs raising $400 billion could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings, potentially reducing them by 20% if companies absorb the costs [2] - Trade remains a significant risk factor, particularly regarding who bears the burden of the $400 billion in tariffs [2] US Dollar & Fed Policy - The dollar experienced a 10% decline in trade-weighted terms over the past six months [7] - The market's pricing for Fed rate cuts this year is considered too aggressive; only one rate cut is expected [8] - The Fed committee, not solely the chair, decides on interest rates and QE, limiting the chair's individual influence [11][12] - The outlook for the dollar in the second half of the year is brighter, partly due to Section 899 being resolved [6][15] Labor Market - The labor market is currently holding up well, with jobless claims remaining relatively stable [9][10]

The UK will limit the growth of tariff-free steel imports to guard against a rush of products being redirected from the US https://t.co/dz4NJkX3Tb ...