The UK government should consider broadening the Bank of England's mandate to take the labor market into account when setting monetary policy, mirroring the Fed, argues @marcusashworth (via @opinion) https://t.co/ROYN7X8AWA ...

Let's talk about Jackson Hole and what we can expect from Jay Powell. So, the Fed really has to decide which of its mandates to emphasize right now. So, Pal's going to have to juggle this and what are we going to get from him.Are we going to get a hawkish message like we saw at his last press conference where he emphasized that the labor market was still in good shape. It's still stable, still healthy, and inflation is really where they're concerned about. Are you going to get something more dovish where he ...

Monetary Policy - China's central bank is holding back from aggressively easing monetary policy [1] - The central bank is refraining from interest-rate cuts [1] Economic Performance - China's economy recorded its worst month so far this year [1]

Summary of PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Report Industry Overview - The report pertains to the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and its implications for the Chinese economy. Key Points 1. **Monetary Policy Stance** The PBOC maintained a "moderately loose" policy stance in its Q2 monetary policy report released on August 15, indicating a limited appetite for broad-based monetary easing despite an easing bias [2][3][4] 2. **Implementation of Policies** The emphasis was placed on executing existing policies and targeted easing, suggesting a measured and reactive approach to monetary policy rather than aggressive easing [2][3] 3. **Credit Extension** The report indicated a shift in tone regarding credit extension, moving from "intensify credit extension" to "maintain steady support for credit extension." This reflects a response to July's weak loan growth [4] 4. **Targeted Easing Focus** The PBOC highlighted the importance of targeted easing through policy guidance, particularly in key areas such as technological innovation, rural development, elderly care, services consumption, and inclusive finance for small and micro enterprises [4] 5. **Shift in Loan Distribution** The share of new loans has shifted significantly, with over 60% previously allocated to real estate and infrastructure, now focusing more on five priority areas including tech innovation and green transition [4][9] 6. **Exchange Rate Management** The report reinstated "the three firm commitments" regarding exchange rates, indicating a preference for a stronger Chinese Yuan (CNY). The PBOC is expected to guide a gradual appreciation of the CNY [10] 7. **Monetary Policy Transmission** The PBOC called for "smooth monetary policy transmission" and emphasized the guiding role of policy rates and market self-regulatory pricing mechanisms [3] 8. **Financial Stability Concerns** The report reiterated the need to prevent idle money circulation and highlighted the trade-off between pro-growth easing and financial stability, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [3] Additional Important Insights - The PBOC's approach reflects a balance between stimulating economic growth and maintaining financial stability, which may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics in the near term [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing employment, economic growth, and promoting reasonable price recovery [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a continued focus on accommodative monetary policy [2] - The central bank acknowledges external shocks and structural contradictions in domestic demand and supply, necessitating a moderately accommodative monetary policy to counter economic downturn pressures [2] - The expectation for the year includes one 50 basis points (BP) reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and a 20 BP interest rate reduction [2] Group 2: Financial Stability Measures - The PBOC reiterates the need to prevent fund diversion while balancing financial support for the real economy and maintaining financial health [3] - The current deleveraging process is expected to be relatively mild, utilizing gradual measures to guide financial institutions in reducing leverage without causing systemic risks [3] Group 3: Establishment of Financial Stability Committee - The establishment of the Macro-Prudential Financial Stability Committee aims to enhance the analysis of systemic financial risks and develop macro-prudential policies [4] - The committee will focus on improving real estate financial management, supporting stable capital market operations, and regulating bond market violations [4][5] Group 4: Focus on Inclusive Finance and Loan Growth - As of June, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting the "five major articles" is 3.8 trillion yuan, with inclusive finance being a significant component [7] - Loan growth rates for various sectors show that the pension industry leads with a 43.0% increase, followed by green loans at 25.5% and technology loans at 12.5% [8] Group 5: Support for Technological Innovation - The PBOC has enhanced financing channels for technological innovation, launching the "Science and Technology Innovation Board" for bond issuance [9] - The introduction of bond risk-sharing tools aims to support equity investment institutions in issuing innovation bonds, enhancing their capital strength [10] Group 6: Risk Monitoring and Financial Infrastructure - The PBOC is developing a comprehensive risk monitoring and assessment system to enhance the resilience of the financial system [13] - The establishment of an interbank transaction reporting database aims to improve financial market infrastructure and transparency [14]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 FED CHAIR POWELL IS SCHEDULED TO DELIVER A SPEECH NEXT WEEK ON THE FED’S POLICY FRAMEWORK. https://t.co/qTxHKZx944 ...

CNBC has learned the Trump administration currently considering now 11 individuals to replace Fed chair J Pal when his term expires in May. I think we're in a good spot right now for talking about bringing the rate down. In my view, if you're starting to worry about the downside risk of labor market, move now.Don't wait. People love to talk about long and variable lags. Why do we want to wait until we actually see it crash before we start cutting rates.So, I'm all in favor of saying maybe we should start th ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The speaker adopts a meeting-by-meeting approach with an open mind and pragmatic mindset [1] - The speaker aims to be forward-looking, continuously updating outlook and risk assessments based on new information [1][2] - Policy support decisions are premature, emphasizing an open mind and pragmatic approach [3] Economic Assessment - The speaker has slightly increased the assessment of potential weakness in the labor market [1] - The speaker has slightly decreased the assessment of the persistence of inflation [1] Mandate Focus - The speaker is focused on the dual mandate, implying a balanced approach to employment and price stability [3]

Inflation Analysis - Inflation is running around 3%, approximately 1% higher than the Fed's 2% target [3][4] - Tariffs' impact on inflation is expected to fade in 2 to 3 quarters, but there's a reasonable possibility of persistence [5] - Companies closer to the importer are passing on almost everything, while those closer to the consumer are having difficulty passing through costs [29] - The impact of tariffs is being shared by exporters, importers, consumers, and intermediate goods [30] - So far, there has been a muted impact on core goods and services, with some higher services inflation [30] Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is seen as stable around full employment, with an unemployment rate at 42% [11] - There is slightly more than one vacancy for each person unemployed and looking for a job [12] - Demand for labor has declined, but so has the supply [13] - The break-even pace of employment is expected to be sub 50 thousand this year due to lower immigration flows [14] Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability and full employment, requiring a balanced approach [6][7] - The speaker is weighing the fact that inflation is almost 1% above target against a labor market at full employment but with downside risks [8] - A 50 basis point cut is unsupported by the current state and outlook for the economy [33] - Central bank independence is very important for better economic outcomes [23][24]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed's current approach to inflation may be too rigid, as precise measurement and control are not feasible, suggesting a 1-3% inflation range is acceptable [3][4][5] - Current economic data suggests the Fed funds rate of 433% is too high, supported by the inverted yield curve indicating potential for a 50 basis point rate cut [6] - Tariffs are essentially a tax, partially paid by foreign entities, and may ultimately lead to lower inflation [8][10] Economic Outlook & Data - Recent revisions to job numbers indicate a weakening economy, aligning with previously weak GDP figures [6] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is weighing on the economy, potentially contributing to a lower GDP growth rate [16] - Tariffs represent a new source of revenue for the federal government [17] Tariffs & Trade - The impact of tariffs is being absorbed mainly in corporate profits, including foreign corporate profits [11][12] - The speaker disagrees with tariffing inputs like copper and parts needed by US companies, especially when competing with China [15] - The use of tariffs as a negotiating tool creates uncertainty for businesses [13][14] Fed Chair Candidacy - Mark Summerland has been mentioned as a possible candidate for Fed chair [1] - Summerland has been in regular contact with Treasury Secretary Bessant regarding monetary policy [18][19] - Summerland would consider the Fed chair position if aligned with the President's views, emphasizing the Fed's independence [21][22]