January has that fresh start energy — we’re motivated, optimistic and fully convinced this is the year we get our finances together. But between goal-setting, post-holiday reality checks and a few well-intentioned decisions, it’s surprisingly easy to slip into money habits that feel harmless in the moment and quietly make the rest of the year harder than it needs to be. “People repeat the same financial behaviors every January and call it a fresh start,” said Angela Matthews, personal finance expert and ...

Core Insights - The K-shaped economy is becoming evident in consumer spending patterns, with a clear divide between higher- and lower-income consumers as the economy heads into 2026 [1][2] Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income consumers are performing well, with strong spending on real assets and homes, while lower-income cohorts are struggling due to persistent inflation [2] - Retail sales in the U.S. appear resilient, but the strength is narrow, with consumers being selective and prioritizing brand loyalty and perceived value in discretionary purchases [2] ETF Performance and Strategy - Value-oriented retailers are benefiting from this selectivity, with ETFs focused on companies like Walmart, Costco, and off-price chains showing strong performance driven by a few value leaders [3] - Consumer staples ETFs are gaining traction as lower-income households reduce spending, indicating a shift towards defensive market segments [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low despite equity markets nearing record highs, creating a disconnect that is unusual in the current economic climate [5] Investment Strategies - ETF investors are advised to adopt active strategies that focus on companies catering to value-conscious shoppers and benefiting from productivity gains through AI, while avoiding broad exposure to vulnerable segments [6] - Employment security is a critical factor influencing consumer spending behavior, with job security leading to increased spending and insecurity prompting more selective purchasing [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cut the main interest rate by a quarter point three times from September to December last year, with the current federal funds rate ranging between 3.5% and 3.75% [3] - U.S. employers added only 50,000 jobs last month, falling below expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [3] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% from 4.5% in November, but remains above the 4% level seen in January 2025 [4] Group 2 - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% in December and 2.6% for the full year, matching a four-year low [7] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% for the month and 2.7% for the full year, with shelter costs contributing significantly to the monthly rise [7] - The lower inflation figures allow the Federal Reserve to prioritize labor market stabilization over immediate price pressure concerns [7]

Core Insights - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a core inflation rate of 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, but consistent with the previous months from September to November, remaining close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - The inflation report does not provide sufficient justification for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates in the upcoming meeting, as inflation remains above target [2] - Shelter costs, which rose by 0.4% in December, were a significant contributor to the inflation increase, although the data collection process may have skewed the results due to assumptions made during the government shutdown [2][3] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% for the time being, as rates are deemed well-positioned to support job growth while managing inflation [5] - New York Fed president John Williams anticipates economic growth in 2026, with inflation expected to peak in the first half of the year and then decline to just under 2.5% by year-end [4] - The expectation is for 50 basis points of policy easing in 2026, but the Fed is likely to wait until at least June to resume rate cuts [4]

Core Insights - Grocery prices have surged, but this increase has been offset by lower price increases for appliances and vehicles, indicating a mixed inflationary environment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [1] Group 1: Grocery Prices - The report highlights a significant rise in grocery prices, which is a key concern for consumers and the economy [1] Group 2: Appliances and Vehicles - In contrast to grocery prices, the increases in prices for appliances and vehicles have been lower, suggesting some relief in these sectors [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Context - This report is the last one before the Federal Reserve convenes to discuss interest rates, making it a critical indicator for potential monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.23%, supported by a decline in the yen, which reached a 1.5-year low against the dollar [1] - US October new home sales fell by -0.1% month-over-month to 737,000, which was better than the expected 715,000 [3] - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated that the US economy is robust and anticipates above-potential growth, suggesting that an accommodative stance from the Fed is unnecessary [3] Group 2 - US December core consumer prices remained unchanged from November at +2.6% year-over-year, which was below the expected +2.7% [2][3] - The market is pricing in a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [4] - The Fed has started purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills since mid-December, which is contributing to dollar pressure [5] Group 3 - Concerns regarding Fed independence have emerged after Fed Chair Powell faced threats of criminal charges related to his testimony, which may impact dollar strength [2] - President Trump is expected to appoint a dovish Fed Chair, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett being the likely candidate, which could be bearish for the dollar [5]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns the Justice Department's grand jury subpoena of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell risks undermining confidence in the central bank and could ultimately push inflation expectations and interest rates higher. ...

The stock market gave up some early gains in the wake of the latest inflation data on Tuesday after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the prior session with closing highs.The Dow dropped 300 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 was down 0.2% after opening higher. Any move higher for either index would be a fresh record close. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%.The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was down to 3.54%. The 10-year yield was down to 4.18%. ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened on January 13th, 2026, with major indexes showing mixed to slightly lower performance as investors reacted to inflation data and the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down approximately 0.5% at the open, while the S&P 500 (SPX) saw a modest decline of around 0.1% [2] - The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was trading near flat, indicating stability in tech stocks despite broader market hesitancy [2] Economic Data - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, consistent with November's figure, while "core" prices rose 2.6%, below the consensus projection of 2.8% [4] - Investors are also monitoring new home sales figures, the NFIB small business optimism index, and updates on the U.S. budget deficit [5] Earnings Season - The fourth-quarter earnings season began with major U.S. banks reporting mixed results; JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported adjusted profits that beat expectations but had slightly lower revenue [6] - Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reported a rise in profit and record revenue for 2025, while Delta Air Lines (DAL) disappointed with its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter profit and guidance, leading to a nearly 6% drop in shares [6] Corporate Developments - Apple (AAPL) is reportedly integrating Google's (GOOGL) Gemini AI into its Siri voice assistant, which could impact both companies and the AI landscape [11] - SK Hynix announced plans to build a $13 billion chip packaging plant in South Korea, indicating rising demand for AI chips [11] - U.S. Bancorp (USB) is acquiring BTIG for up to $1 billion in cash and stock [11] - Walmart (WMT) shares increased by 3.0% following its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index and the introduction of new AI features [11]

Economic Indicators - October new home sales are expected to decline by -10.6% month-over-month to 715,000 units [1] - November PPI final demand is projected to rise by +2.7% year-over-year, with core PPI also expected to increase by +2.7% year-over-year [1] - December existing home sales are anticipated to increase by +2.2% month-over-month to 4.22 million [1] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to rise by +7,000 to 215,000 [1] - January Empire manufacturing survey is expected to improve by +4.9 to 1.0 [1] - December manufacturing production is forecasted to decrease by -0.1% month-over-month [1] Stock Market Movements - Credit card companies are experiencing declines, with Visa down more than -3% and Mastercard down more than -2% following President Trump's comments on interest rate caps [3][12] - Energy-producing stocks are rising, with WTI crude oil increasing over 1% to a 1.75-month high due to geopolitical risks [4] - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.02%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +0.09% [6] - Mining stocks are gaining, with Hecla Mining up more than +3% and Barrick Mining up more than +2% due to rising silver prices [11] Earnings and Forecasts - Q4 earnings growth for S&P companies is expected to rise by +8.4%, with a +4.6% increase excluding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks [7] - Option Care Health's stock is up more than +9% after a positive EBITDA growth forecast for 2026 [12] - Revvity's preliminary Q4 revenue of $772 million exceeds the consensus of $756.9 million, leading to a stock increase of more than +9% [13] - Cardinal Health raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to at least $10.00, stronger than the consensus of $9.83, resulting in a stock increase of more than +3% [14] International Markets - The Euro Stoxx 50 reached a new record high, up +0.41%, while Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up sharply by +3.10% [8]