The road to lower interest rates in the US is turning smoother, but some sizeable bumps remain https://t.co/8BMkoCFPj2 ...

The new chief of Japan’s financial regulator has a message for regional banks: don’t rely on rising interest rates to fix your problems https://t.co/khnoLCqwaJ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets [3][4][5][6][7]. Key Insights US Rates - **Positioning Strategy**: The recommendation is to hold 5s20s steepeners as a low-beta strategy to benefit from lower front-end yields. Anticipation of a multi-quarter series of coupon auction size increases starting in May 2026 is noted [3][14]. - **Net T-Bill Issuance**: A projection of $587 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the Treasury General Account (TGA) following the passage of the OBBBA [3][23]. International Rates - **Market Volatility**: Developed market (DM) rates have experienced choppy trading, with a bearish repricing following the July ECB meeting and a rally after the latest US payrolls [4]. Commodities - **Russian Oil Exports**: The Trump Administration has warned that India and China may face penalties for purchasing Russian oil, potentially affecting 2.75 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian seaborne oil exports. Russia may redirect 0.8 mbd to countries like Egypt and Malaysia [8][89]. - **Natural Gas Market**: US natural gas production is impacting market sentiment, with skepticism about the $750 billion energy purchases in the EU-US deal being deemed overly optimistic [90]. Currencies - **Dollar Positioning**: Pre-payroll price actions indicate a significant unwinding of dollar shorts. The bearish view on the dollar remains intact, with US data moderation being a key factor [6][56][57]. - **EUR/USD Outlook**: The bullish view on EUR/USD is supported by US economic moderation and currency hedge rebalancing. The fair value of EUR/USD has increased as US real yields have declined [59][76]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: A cautious approach is recommended for emerging markets (EM), with a light set of recommendations favoring holding market weight (MW) in EM FX, EM rates, and EM corporate credit, while staying underweight (UW) in EM sovereign credit [9][110]. - **Market Conditions**: The EM FX risk appetite signals that the market is overbought, suggesting a potential correction [111]. Additional Important Points - **Treasury Funding**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in May 2026 [20][21]. - **Trade Uncertainty in Agriculture**: Trade uncertainty is reaching a tipping point in agricultural markets, with volatility across ags markets at multi-year lows [103][105]. - **Gold Market**: Gold prices are awaiting a demand catalyst, with ETF inflows being crucial for a breakout, particularly in light of anticipated Fed cuts [98][102]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and investment strategies.

And so it begins.Global economy cutting.Money printer goes brrrrPrices go up.Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru):JUST IN: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25bps to 4%. ...

The FED hasn't even cut rates yet.We're just getting started! 🚀 https://t.co/8gVQdKz3za ...

Well, let's go from chips to the credit markets. Wall Street's watching closely as the Treasury hits the market with its latest 30-year bond auction. Investors are parsing demand for long-term debt amid rising deficits, shifting rate expectations, and of course, the economic outlook is uncertain.Rick Santelli joins us now from Chicago. Rick, what do you have. >> Yeah, you know, there is a lot to unpack there.Let's start at the beginning and let the charts do some talking. If you look at twos and tens since ...

Bring in show music, please. >> Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, a tale of two American economies.Is it slowing down. President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Neil Kashkari thinks maybe and the Fed might have to cut interest rates soon. >> What are the ultimate effects of tariffs going to be on inflation.And what I'm realizing is we may not know the answer to that for quarters or a year or more. But Disney's CFO Hugh Johnston sees another picture. Are Americans spending on fun.>> ...

Why is it that you think there is a new structural regime for benchmark rates that's going to make it a lot more difficult to get them lower over the next ten, 20 years. So it's a great question, Lisa. So let's cast our minds back briefly to the early 2000, to Ben Bernanke and to the famous savings glut hypothesis.So back then, the Fed was hiking, but long term Treasury rates weren't going up. And Bernanke said is because there's a glut of global saving. All of this money coming from China and Saudi into th ...

Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is weaker than headline unemployment suggests due to sluggish hiring and declining labor supply, potentially influenced by immigration policies [1][2] - Businesses are not firing, but hiring is slow, contributing to the weakness in the labor market [1][2] - BLS data may require updates in practices, technology, and funding to maintain confidence in the numbers [4][5][9] - Alternative data sources and trends over three, six, or nine months should be considered to assess the labor market, rather than over-relying on any single data print [10][11] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Prospects for future GDP growth have slowed from initial estimates of 225%-250% to 125%-150%, impacting treasury yields [17] - The ten-year treasury yield is influenced by supply and demand factors, future growth prospects, and deficits, with concerns about the amount of treasuries being sold [18][19] - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, but it is not a certainty due to conflicting factors such as above 2% inflation and sluggish growth [20][21][22] - The Fed faces a conflict between its dual mandates of employment and inflation, potentially requiring a serious look at cutting rates by 25 basis points in September [24][25] Fed Independence and Treasury Market - There is a strong culture of independence at the Fed, and the onus is on the chair to uphold that ethic [14] - Concerns exist regarding the weakening dollar and upward pressure on rates due to factors like firing a statistician and the rest of the world looking elsewhere [16] - The US is running a $2 trillion deficit, adding to concerns about the supply and demand of treasuries [18]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter of 2025 reached $172.3 million, an increase of 8.8% year-over-year[13] - Net loss for the second quarter was $(11.0) million, a 99.3% change year-over-year[13] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $1.5 million, representing a 1.0% increase year-over-year[13] - Year-to-date revenue totaled $317.3 million, up 10.4% compared to the previous year[14] - Year-to-date net loss was $(15.5) million, a (0.4)% change year-over-year[14] - Year-to-date Adjusted EBITDA was $(7.3) million, a 15.7% increase year-over-year[14] Operational Highlights - Sales volume for the second quarter reached $12.3 billion, a 29.9% increase year-over-year[13] - Transaction closings for the second quarter totaled 2,070, up 15.0% year-over-year[13] - The number of investment sales and financing professionals as of June 30, 2025, was 1,640, a decrease of (5.0)% year-over-year[13] Market Trends - Private investors dominate the U S commercial real estate market, accounting for 59% of dollar volume[34] - Transactions in the $1 million to <$10 million range constitute 66% of the total[16]