Market Overview - U.S. stock markets are experiencing a mixed session with major indexes showing slight pullbacks as investors assess inflation data and fourth-quarter earnings reports [1][2] - The S&P 500 Index is down less than 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite Index has slipped 0.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 0.6% [2] Economic Indicators - The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 2.7% year-over-year rise in headline inflation, matching expectations, while core inflation is at 2.6%, slightly below the projected 2.8% [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to below 4.18% from 4.20% following the CPI data release, indicating potential room for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4] Earnings Reports - JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported adjusted profits exceeding expectations but with slightly lower revenue, leading to a 2.5% decline in shares [7] - Delta Air Lines (DAL) shares fell nearly 6% pre-bell and 1.5% in recent trading after forecasting lower-than-expected profit growth for fiscal 2026, despite reporting operating revenue of $16.00 billion [7] - L3Harris Technologies (LHX) shares surged 3% to an all-time high following plans to spin off its Missile Solutions business, supported by a $1 billion government investment [8] Sector Movements - A sector rotation trend has been observed since late December 2025, with the Dow Jones and small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming AI-heavy mega-cap technology stocks [3] Corporate Developments - Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. (SNCY) shares jumped 10.6% after announcing an acquisition agreement with Allegiant Travel (ALGT) valued at $18.89 per share [10] - Posco Holdings Inc. (PKX) shares rose 12% after raising $700 million in global bond markets and providing a positive earnings outlook for 2026 [11] Political Impact - President Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has negatively impacted financial stocks, with Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) down 5%, and American Express Company (AXP) down 4.3% [9]

Core Insights - A key measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.7% in December, matching November's increase and aligning with forecasts [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and gas prices, increased by 2.6%, which was below the median forecast of 2.8% [2] - The overall inflation rate showed signs of cooling, providing some relief to household budgets strained by previous cost-of-living increases [1][4] Economic Implications - Tamer inflation reports may allow the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates to support the struggling job market [3][10] - Despite inflation remaining above the Fed's target of 2%, the flat inflation trend is seen as an improvement compared to previous months [3] - The CPI report was the first unaffected by the government shutdown, which had previously impacted data collection [8][9] Price Trends - Used car prices dropped by 1.1% monthly, and gas prices fell by 0.5%, contributing to the overall decrease in inflation [4] - Core goods prices remained flat for the first time since May, indicating a muted impact from tariffs [5][6] - Food prices rose by 0.7%, marking the highest increase since September 2022, while shelter prices increased by 0.4% [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its next meeting, with discussions ongoing about the balance between combating inflation and supporting the job market [10][11] - Analysts predict that the December CPI report will not significantly alter the Fed's stance on interest rates, with a pause in rate cuts anticipated [12] - Future inflation reports may become less influential on market movements as other factors, such as political pressures, come into play [14][15]

Market Overview - Bitcoin surpassed $93,500, gaining over 2% in 24 hours, driven by steady inflation data, political instability, and renewed interest in crypto as a macro hedge [1] - Altcoins such as ether (ETH) and BNB also saw increases, with ETH rising 1.7% to $3,185 and BNB up over 1.5%, while the broader market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, increased by 1.4% [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December remained steady at 2.7%, with core CPI lower than analyst expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's soft landing narrative [1][3] - Lower interest rates are expected to enhance the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [3] Market Resistance and Predictions - Bitcoin needs to break through the $93,500-$95,000 resistance zone, which has limited price increases for nearly two months [4] - If retail sales and housing data confirm consumer resilience, a decisive break of the resistance could lead to a run towards $100,000 before the end of the month [7] Legislative Developments - The digital asset market structure legislation is progressing in the Senate, potentially providing a "seal of approval" for institutional capital if passed [5] - The bill includes compromises on stablecoin yields and protections for decentralized finance (DeFi) [5] Political Context - Political tensions, particularly between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell, are raising concerns about the Fed's independence, with a Supreme Court ruling on federal tariff authority expected to impact the dollar and risk assets [6]

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon slammed the Trump administration’s move to open an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the $2.5 billion revamp of its headquarters, warning that threats to the central bank’s independence could raise interest rates and stoke inflation.GOP lawmakers and White House insiders accuse Powell of lying to Congress about the work during his testimony in June, prompting US Attorney Jeanine Pirro to step in and order the probe.But JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon, speaking during a ...

Key Takeaways CPI Inflation Rate Came In-Line Month over Month to 2.7%Oil and Gasoline Prices Moved Lower; Food and Shelter Rose AgainJPMorgan and Delta Air Lines Beats Estimates on Top and Bottom LinesTuesday, January 13th, 2026A new Inflation Rate hits the tape this morning, coming in flat month over month to +2.7% — still -30 basis points (bps) from the recent high +3.0% back in September. It continues an abrupt turnaround in Consumer Price Index (CPI) year over year, which had risen +70 bps from April t ...

Core Insights - Grocery prices have surged, but this increase has been offset by lower price increases for appliances and vehicles, indicating a mixed inflationary environment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [1] Group 1: Grocery Prices - The report highlights a significant rise in grocery prices, which is a key concern for consumers and policymakers [1] Group 2: Appliances and Vehicles - In contrast to grocery prices, the increases in prices for appliances and vehicles have been lower, suggesting some relief in these sectors [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Context - This report is the last one before the Federal Reserve convenes to discuss interest rates, making it particularly relevant for monetary policy considerations [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the financial challenges faced by a retired couple living on a monthly budget of $6,200, highlighting the need for a portfolio of approximately $617,000 to sustain their lifestyle under the 4% withdrawal rule [2][3]. Financial Sustainability - A $617,000 portfolio may struggle to cover a $2,058 monthly gap after 15 years if inflation averages 3.5% while Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) average 2.5% [3][6]. - The couple's income of $74,400 annually leads to taxation on up to 85% of their Social Security benefits, resulting in federal tax payments of $4,200 to $4,800 annually [7][8]. Inflation and Lifestyle Maintenance - To maintain the same lifestyle, the couple's $6,200 monthly budget would need to increase to $8,333 in 10 years and $11,180 in 20 years due to 3% annual inflation [5]. - The gap between Social Security growth at 2.5% and actual expenses rising at 3.5% widens each year, necessitating portfolio withdrawals to increase faster than the anticipated 4% [6]. Tax Implications - The couple's provisional income exceeds $44,000, leading to significant taxation on their Social Security benefits, which have not seen threshold adjustments for inflation since 1984 [7]. - Strategies such as Roth conversions, strategic withdrawal sequencing, or qualified charitable distributions can help reduce lifetime tax bills and improve financial outcomes [8].

The market’s focus this week will be on economic news and any fresh news on the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Nov PPI final demand is expected to increase +2.7% y/y, and Nov core PPI is also expected to climb by +2.7% y/y. Also, Nov retail sales are expected to have increased +0.5% m/m and +0.4% m/m ex-autos. In addition, Dec existing home sales are expected to climb +2.2% m/m to 4.22 million. Finally, the Supreme Court on Wednesday may rule on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs. On Thursday, weekly ...

January has that fresh start energy — we’re motivated, optimistic and fully convinced this is the year we get our finances together. But between goal-setting, post-holiday reality checks and a few well-intentioned decisions, it’s surprisingly easy to slip into money habits that feel harmless in the moment and quietly make the rest of the year harder than it needs to be. “People repeat the same financial behaviors every January and call it a fresh start,” said Angela Matthews, personal finance expert and ...

Core Insights - The K-shaped economy is becoming evident in consumer spending patterns, with a clear divide between higher- and lower-income consumers as the economy heads into 2026 [1][2] Consumer Spending Trends - Higher-income consumers are performing well, with strong spending on real assets and homes, while lower-income cohorts are struggling due to persistent inflation [2] - Retail sales in the U.S. appear resilient, but the strength is narrow, with consumers being selective and prioritizing brand loyalty and perceived value in discretionary purchases [2] ETF Performance and Strategy - Value-oriented retailers are benefiting from this selectivity, with ETFs focused on companies like Walmart, Costco, and off-price chains showing strong performance driven by a few value leaders [3] - Consumer staples ETFs are gaining traction as lower-income households reduce spending, indicating a shift towards defensive market segments [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low despite equity markets nearing record highs, creating a disconnect that is unusual in the current economic climate [5] Investment Strategies - ETF investors are advised to adopt active strategies that focus on companies catering to value-conscious shoppers and benefiting from productivity gains through AI, while avoiding broad exposure to vulnerable segments [6] - Employment security is a critical factor influencing consumer spending behavior, with job security leading to increased spending and insecurity prompting more selective purchasing [7]