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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250616
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 05:17
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report presents daily trading strategies and trend analyses for various commodities futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific market situation, and the report provides corresponding trading suggestions and trend judgments based on factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have reignited, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6][10]. - **Silver**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0, also indicating a neutral outlook [6][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and prices are oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [12][14]. - **Aluminum**: The current situation remains strong, with a trend strength of 0 [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The price center has shifted slightly downward, with a trend strength of 0 [15][17]. - **Zinc**: Prices are under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [18]. - **Lead**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but it can be bullish in the medium term, with a trend strength of 0 [20][21]. - **Tin**: The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak, with a trend strength of 0 [23][26]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [27][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [27][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply pressure is strong, and weak oscillations continue, with a trend strength of 0 [31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short, with a trend strength of - 1 [34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot market is weak, and the market has a downward driving force, with a trend strength of - 1 [34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are oscillating within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [37][38]. - **Rebar**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [40][43]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [40][43]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Steel procurement quotes have been finalized, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [44][47]. - **Silicomanganese**: Affected by ore - end information, prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [44][47]. - **Coke**: Safety inspections are becoming stricter, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [49][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Safety inspections are becoming stricter, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [49][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [53][56]. - **P - Xylene**: Oil prices have risen and then fallen, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [2]. - **PTA**: Oil prices have risen and then fallen, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [2]. - **MEG**: Reduce positions in the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are running strongly in the short term [2]. - **Asphalt**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and geopolitical risks still exist [2]. - **LLDPE**: Prices are strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [2]. - **PP**: Prices have risen slightly, with average trading volume [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Valuations are under pressure against the backdrop of high profits [2]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2]. - **Methanol**: Prices are running strongly in the short term [2]. - **Urea**: There may be a short - term rebound, and intraday fluctuations depend on spot trading volume [2]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term [2]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, increasing market risks [2]. - **PVC**: Prices are oscillating in the short term, and there is still pressure in the trend [2]. Energy - **Fuel Oil**: Prices have risen significantly and are expected to strengthen significantly in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has narrowed slightly [5]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Short at high levels for the October contract, and reduce positions in the October - December reverse spread strategy at high levels [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Both the US biodiesel policy and geopolitical risks are favorable [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The performance of domestic oils may be weaker than that of international oils [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Biodiesel policies are favorable, and the domestic soybean meal market is following the strong trend of US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The soybean market is strong, and prices are rising to catch up [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are oscillating strongly [5]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating at low levels [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [5]. - **Eggs**: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released [5]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for confirmation from the spot market [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [5]. Pulp and Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: Prices are oscillating [5]. Others - **Short - Fiber**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices are oscillating at high levels [5]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices are oscillating at high levels [5]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [57][61].