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雅化集团(002497):2025 年中报点评:民爆基石稳固,锂业务短期承压
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 11:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][14]. Core Views - The company's main profit contribution in the first half of 2025 came from its civil explosives business, while the lithium segment is expected to recover in the second half due to the ramp-up of self-controlled lithium mines and downstream capacity expansion [3][14]. - The target price for the company is set at 17.00 yuan, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2026, considering the expected growth in lithium production and stable demand in the civil explosives sector [14]. Financial Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 34.23 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.36 billion yuan, up 32.9% year-on-year [14]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 18.86 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year but up 22.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.53 billion yuan, down 38.9% year-on-year and 35.4% quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to a significant drop in lithium prices, with the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide falling by 26.97% year-on-year to 67,401 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025 [14]. Business Segments - The civil explosives segment reported revenue of 14.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.53 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year [14]. - The company is expected to see improvements in its lithium business in the second half of 2025 as self-controlled mines ramp up production and the price gap in refining improves [14]. - The civil explosives business has a diversified target market, with market shares of 5% and 11% for industrial explosives and electronic detonators, respectively, and a significant presence in the Sichuan region [14].