| 华安研究 2026年3月金股组合 | 归母净利润（百万元） | 归母净利润增速 | 营业收入（百万元） | 营业收入增速 | eps | pe(其余有说明) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 金股代码 | 金股 | 核心推荐逻辑 | 风险提示 | 研究员 | 报告依据 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2 ...

2026年2月28日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 01 锂业弹性表 证券研究报告 锂行业弹性表 （2026年2月版） 行业评级：看好 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的公司为：赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、华友钴业、紫金矿业、中矿资源； 预计2025至2027年产量增速较快的为：大中矿业、紫金矿业、盐湖股份、永兴材料、国城矿业； 增量分析： 2 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，措拉矿投产，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）大中矿业：未来几年主要增量为鸡脚山和加达锂矿项目逐步投产增产。 4）盐湖股份：未来几年主要增量为新建4万吨项目投产放量、最新整合五矿盐湖旗下一里坪盐湖。 5）紫金矿业：未来几年增 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continued its strong performance on February 27, with a net inflow of 23.2 billion yuan, ranking second among 31 Shenwan primary industries [1] - Nine stocks, including Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhong Rare Metals, reached the daily limit, while the non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw a maximum intraday increase of 3.82%, closing up 3.74% with a total trading volume exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The upcoming rare earth and rare metal export policy briefing is scheduled for March 25, with prices of rare earths and minor metals continuing to rise due to supply-demand dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - Zimbabwe's mining department announced a ban on lithium ore exports, raising market expectations for price increases, similar to the previous case with cobalt prices due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's export suspension [2] - Citic Securities indicated that after a significant price surge in 2025, the momentum for non-ferrous metals remains strong, supported by supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation [2] - The non-ferrous ETF from Huabao (159876) and its linked funds comprehensively cover various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the non-ferrous metal sector [2]

Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, with the domestic refined copper import window closed [2][11] - LME copper inventory increased by 3,950 tons to 259,600 tons, while Comex copper inventory rose by 9.98 tons to 545,267 tons [2][11] - The core logic driving copper prices upward remains the insufficient global copper mine capital expenditure leading to a supply gap, alongside increasing demand from new energy and AI infrastructure [2][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 1.75% to $17,730 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.25% to 139,100 yuan per ton [12][12] - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,698 tons to 289,506 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 19 tons to 53,158 tons [12][12] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million to 270 million tons, significantly lower than last year's target [12][12] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a weak fluctuation, with AO2605 settling at 2,747 yuan per ton, down 3.55% [14][14] - SHFE aluminum fluctuated weakly, with AL2604 closing at 23,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [14][14] - The overseas alumina price increased, while domestic electrolytic aluminum plants began winter raw material storage, leading to a counter-trend rise in alumina prices [14][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon showed weak fluctuations, with the main contract settling at 834,035 yuan per ton, down 1.3% [15][15] - Polysilicon also experienced a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 46,315 yuan per ton, down 2.59% [15][15] - The supply of industrial silicon has narrative support, but upward price movement is limited due to constrained demand [15][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 3.47% to 173,660 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 11,250 yuan per ton to 173,000 yuan per ton [16][16] - The weekly lithium carbonate social inventory decreased by 2,839 tons to 100,093 tons, with downstream inventory dropping by 4,471 tons to 40,021 tons [16][16] - Concerns over exports from Zimbabwe have led to a gap opening in lithium carbonate futures prices, with current exports paused [16][16]

供给：锂价反弹刺激供给，但短期增量有限 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，动力电池和储能电池双驱动，预计2026年全球锂需求有望达 到约200万吨LCE。另国内锂电池出口退税下调，短期或推动锂电抢出口，需求前置下或将带动锂行业 供需边际趋紧。经历过连续几个月的去库存之后，目前国内锂盐库存周期仅不足一个月时间，在供需如 此紧张的情况下，库存矛盾将愈加凸显。该行看好锂价在近期进一步上行，预计短期有望涨至20万元/ 吨以上。 国信证券主要观点如下： 相关标的：赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、中矿资源、永兴材料、华友钴业、盛新锂能、雅化集团、 大中矿业、国城矿业 风险提示：锂终端需求不及预期;全球锂资源开发速度超预期。 动力电池和储能电池双驱动，预计2026年全球锂需求有望达到约200万吨LCE。储能电池需求自2025年 下半年开始显著超预期，年初也保持旺盛的需求状态，预计全年出货量可以达到900Gwh左右，同比增 速近50%;动力电池需求年初遇冷，主要是受补贴退坡和淡季消费等因素影响，预计从3月份开始有望迅 速回暖，全年仍有望实现20%左右增长。另外，国内锂电池出口退税下调，自2026年4月1日至12月31日 ...

隔夜LME镍涨0.73%报18045美元/吨，沪镍涨0.11%报141680元/吨。库存方面，LME库存增加480吨至 287808吨，SHFE 仓单增加1253吨至53177吨。升贴水来看，LME0-3月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水 维持50元/吨。节前ESDM部矿产和煤炭总干事Tri Winarno透露，批准的镍矿生产配额在2.6亿吨到2.7亿 吨之间，与上年RKAB的生产目标大幅缩水；根据铁合金在线，受镍矿供应紧张及炉子检修影响，印尼 某镍铁工厂产量下降，预计影响产量3-4万实物吨/月；根据路透社报道，再次发生尾矿滑坡后，印尼环 境部长Hanif Faisol Nurofiq称正考虑取消青美邦新能源有限公司的环境许可。基本面来看镍矿升水再度 走强，根据铁合金在线报道，节后报价在35-40不等（不含奖励）美元/吨。根据SMM数据显示印尼火 法、湿法镍矿库存指数下降，分别主要受到监控系统延迟和新项目投产所致，叠加印尼配额收紧的预 期，后续或仍存在资源供给偏紧的担忧，推动边界成本支撑继续抬升。阶段性需求环比转弱，但成本支 撑依旧坚实，叠加印尼消息面多有扰动，持续关注成本线附近轻仓试多机会，后续显性库存如能明显 ...

镍业股早盘普涨，印尼政府力挺镍价，镍价有望在1.8万美元以上运行。力勤资源(02245)涨超8%；新疆 新鑫矿业(03833)涨3%；中伟新材(02579)涨4%。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数涨0.75%，涨199点，报26790点；恒生科技指数涨0.34%。港股早盘成 交1223亿港元。 稀美资源(09936)涨超24%，供给冲击加速钽价上涨，公司为国内少数具备钽铌资源加工能力企业。 市场传闻及政策导向显示，国家将继续深化粗钢产量调控政策。钢铁股强势拉升。重庆钢铁股份 (01053)大涨16.5%，鞍钢股份(00347)涨超6%。 碳酸锂期货一度突破17万大关。天齐锂业(09696)涨超4%，赣锋锂业(01772)涨超2%。 龙资源(01712)涨超12%再破顶，Jokisivu金矿钻探发现积极结果，预计去年税后纯利同比大增。 佳鑫国际资源(03858)升9%，钨价持续走高，公司获纳入恒生综合指数。 海底捞(06862)涨超6%，春节9天全国门店累计接待超1400万人次。 贝壳-W(02423)盘中涨8%，获纳入恒生国企指数成份股，机构看好公司房产交易业务成本优化。 安踏体育(02020)涨超4%，花 ...

❤①新年好，本篇内容较多，照旧我们把重要结论放在前面：看好贵金属>能源金属>战略金属=工业金属。以今 日港股为例，市场主要还是对地缘和关税反应，2.23日港股有色板块全线大涨：香港有色金属指数+4.51%，居港 股行业涨幅前列。个股普涨、放量上行，资金流入明显，呈现贵金属领涨、基本金属/新能源金属共振格局。 其中： 1. 黄金/贵金属（最强） 潼关黄金+12%、赤峰黄金+7%+、紫金黄金国际 中国黄金国际+6%+、紫金矿业 万国黄金 招金矿业+5%+ -核心：地缘避险+金价修复+央行购金+降息预期 2. 锂/新能源金属（次强） 赣锋锂业+8%+、天齐锂业+3%+ -核心：节前持续去库+需求预期较好+板块估值修复+大盘反弹 3. 铜铝/基本金属（跟涨） 五矿资源+6%+、江西铜业+4%+、中国宏桥、洛阳钼业+2%–3% -核心：关税扰动暂缓+油价上行+经济复苏预期+美元走弱 标的选择上，经历了春节前的调整，很多标的又出现较好买点，估值差异并不是非常大 1贵金属：1）黄金 紫金黄金国际、山东黄金、招金矿业、万国黄金集团、中国黄金国际、山金国际等2）白银 盛达资源、兴业银锡等 2能源金属：1）核心弹性标的：国城矿业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a bullish outlook on the lithium industry, particularly in China, driven by increased demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, marking the onset of a third lithium price supercycle [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium stocks have shown strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 8.56% to HKD 66.5 and Tianqi Lithium increasing by 3.17% to HKD 45.5 [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - UBS has significantly raised its price forecasts for spodumene and lithium carbonate, indicating a positive market trend [1] - The firm believes that the demand for lithium will continue to grow due to the gradual realization of the "triple balance" in electric vehicles and a global surge in energy storage needs [1] Group 3: Company Projections - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to achieve a net profit between RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 1.65 billion for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting a recovery in the lithium battery supply chain [1] - The industry is anticipated to maintain high lithium prices until mining permits are obtained for the Jiangxi lithium mine, with profitability expected to rebound by 2026 [1]

锂业股早盘走强，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（01772）上涨7.75%，报66.05港元；天齐锂业（09696）上涨 2.77%，报45.32港元。 责任编辑：卢昱君 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 锂业股早盘走强，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（01772）上涨7.75%，报66.05港元；天齐锂业（09696）上涨 2.77%，报45.32港元。 ...