2025 年 11 月 24 日 碳酸锂：多空博弈加剧，关注大厂复工进展 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 91,020 | -7,960 | 3,660 | 8,720 | 13,900 | 6,540 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 1,137,824 | -457,822 | 380,392 | 327,169 | 761,375 | 959,871 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 411,327 | -68,275 | -105,451 | -79,624 | 58,096 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 198 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 278% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 272%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 214 million yuan, up 478% year-on-year and 3058% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Lithium Business Performance - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Q3 2025 was 73,000 yuan per ton, up 12% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 68,700 yuan per ton, up 6% quarter-on-quarter. The company experienced a significant increase in lithium salt product sales, achieving a record high for quarterly sales due to effective market strategy adjustments and strong customer feedback [11][11] - The company has improved its lithium ore self-sufficiency rate through the production of lithium concentrate from its Zimbabwe Kamativi lithium mine, positively impacting the cost structure of lithium salt products [11] Civil Explosives Business Performance - The civil explosives business showed stable overall performance in the first three quarters of 2025, although total production and sales value declined due to intensified market competition and falling product prices. The company expanded its sales channels and saw significant growth in civil explosive product exports, contributing to stable profitability in this segment [11] Solid-State Battery Development - The company is actively advancing the research and industrialization of key raw materials for solid-state batteries, achieving significant progress in the synthesis and mass production technology of lithium sulfide, a core material for solid electrolytes. The new synthesis process developed by the company has shown advantages in material cost, purity, and particle size control [11] Future Outlook - Both the lithium and civil explosives businesses are expected to experience growth turning points, with a shift towards collaborative development. The company anticipates substantial improvements in profitability and growth potential, driven by rising lithium prices and increased self-supply from its lithium resources, alongside efforts to expand its civil explosives business domestically and internationally [11]

海南矿业（601969.SH）11月21日在投资者互动平台表示，公司聚焦于战略性资源的上游勘探开发，目 前没有磷酸铁锂生产线。公司2万吨电池级氢氧化锂项目正在进行碳化产线技改，技改完成后，产线将 具备碳酸锂的生产能力，而碳酸锂是制备磷酸铁锂的核心原材料。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问董秘，贵司是否有磷酸铁锂相关生产线？ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 557 million yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 364% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 417% [4][6]. - The non-recurring net profit was -29 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96% [4][6]. - The recovery in lithium prices has led to improved profitability for the company, which is expected to continue as it enhances its resource self-sufficiency and optimizes costs [6]. Summary by Sections Production and Cost Management - The C-O salt lake is accelerating production, with an expected output of 30,000 to 35,000 tons of LCE for the full year 2025, and a long-term operational cost target of approximately 65,430 yuan per ton of LCE [6]. - The company plans to add a demonstration line for 5,000 tons of LCE to implement direct lithium extraction technology, which may be further applied in the second phase of a 40,000-ton LCE project [6]. Project Developments - The Goulamina lithium concentrate project in Mali, with a capacity of 506,000 tons, is set to commence production in December 2024, with promising profitability due to resource scale and quality advantages [6]. - The Mariana salt lake's first phase of a 20,000-ton lithium chloride project began production in February 2025, with stable supply expected in the second half of 2025 [6]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading resource player with a faster increase in self-sufficiency and continuous cost optimization, which is expected to enhance profitability [6]. - The company is also increasing its focus on battery business, holding the largest global capacity for lithium metal, and is anticipated to benefit from the future demand for solid-state batteries [6].

2025 年 11 月 19 日 品 研 究 碳酸锂：短期或有回调 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 93,520 | -1,680 | 6,980 | 14,960 | 17,740 | 16,580 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 1,487,724 | 120,805 | 585,234 | 511,746 | 1,184,122 | 1,362,496 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 484,357 | -78,597 | -42,136 | 26,983 | 212,499 | ...

Market Performance - The new energy vehicle index (885431.TI) decreased by 0.82% from November 10 to November 14, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.26% [1] - The best-performing sector within the automotive industry was the automotive complete vehicle index (881125.TI), which rose by 0.42% [1] - In the new energy vehicle battery sector, the power battery recycling index (885944.TI) had the highest weekly increase of 1.49% [1] Company Stock Prices - The closing prices for various new energy vehicle companies as of November 14 are as follows: - Haima Automobile: 10.94 CNY [4] - JAC Motors: 47.87 CNY [4] - BYD: 98.37 CNY [4] - Changan Automobile: 12.23 CNY [4] - Great Wall Motors: 22.7 CNY [4] - Seres: 135.2 CNY [4] - GAC Group: 7.75 CNY [4] - BAIC Blue Valley: 7.82 CNY [4] Industry Data - In October, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1,772,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with cumulative production of 13,015,000 units, up 33.1% [37] - The sales volume for new energy vehicles in October was 1,715,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20%, with cumulative sales of 12,943,000 units, up 32.7% [37] - Exports of new energy vehicles totaled 250,000 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 99.9%, with cumulative exports reaching 2,010,000 units, up 90.4% [37] - The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in October were 1,621,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.6% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5% [37] Battery Data - The installed capacity of power batteries in October was 84,100 MWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% and a month-on-month increase of 10.7% [37] - Cumulative installed capacity reached 578,000 MWh, with a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [37] - The installed capacity of ternary material power batteries was 16,500 MWh, up 35.8% year-on-year, while lithium iron phosphate power batteries reached 67,500 MWh, up 43.7% year-on-year [37] Company Sales Performance - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in October were 441,706 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.47% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.13% [37] - Leap Motor's new energy vehicle deliveries were 70,289 units, a month-on-month increase of 5.45% and a year-on-year increase of 84.11% [37] - Seres sold 51,456 new energy vehicles in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15.17% and a year-on-year increase of 42.89% [37]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate is positive, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 95,200, the trading volume was 1,366,919, and the open interest was 562,954. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 95,720, the trading volume was 302,425, and the open interest was 274,475 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 26,953 hands, showing a decrease compared to previous periods [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and 2601 contract was -9,050, and between the spot and 2605 contract was -9,570. The basis between the 2601 and 2605 contracts was -520 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,024, and the price of lepidolite (2.0%-2.5%) was 2,340 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 86,150, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,800 [1]. - **Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different degrees of change [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 86,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1385 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 86,150 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,800 yuan/ton, both increasing by 1000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The full exemption policy for new energy vehicle purchase tax will end in 2025. 17 mainstream automobile brands have launched purchase tax subsidy plans. From January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy will be halved [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

龙虎榜机构热股 今天机构龙虎榜上榜39只个股，净买入13只，净卖出26只。当日机构买入最多的个股前三位是：时空科技（3.65亿）、融捷股份（1.07亿）、实朴检测 （8257万） 个股龙虎榜 一、福建自贸 海峡创新 个股龙虎榜 公司实控人为平潭国资委，是平潭国资控股的唯一上市公司 中国武夷 | 上榜热股 | 实时涨跌幅↓ 买/卖家数♦ | | | --- | --- | --- | | 时空科技 605178.SS | +10.00% | 2/0 | | 3日 | | | | 融捷股份 002192.SZ | +10.01% | 3/2 | | 3日 | | | | 实朴检测 | | | | 301728 57 | 117 700% | 5/7 | 融捷股份 龙虎榜显示，今日3家机构净买入1.07亿。 龙虎榜知名游资 公司实控人福建国资委，主营投资开发、工程承包、外经外贸 二、锂电池 子公司天宜锂业拥有从事锂盐行业多年的技术、管理团队，电池级氢氧化锂产品、电池级碳酸锂产品主要应用于新能源汽车电池、通讯电子产品电源设备、 能源存储等领域，可以实现电池级氢氧化锂产品13.5万吨/年，电池级碳酸锂产品3万吨/年。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of lithium carbonate is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the risk of seasonal weakening of power demand [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 84,920, the trading volume was 549, and the open interest was 584. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 86,580, the trading volume was 1,145,329, and the open interest was 528,966 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 28,287 hands [1] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was - 1,620; between spot and 2601 contract was - 3,280; between 2511 and 2601 contracts was - 1,660 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 984, and the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,245 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,100 [1] - **Related Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 36,605, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 153,325 [1] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 83,228 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 889 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,100 yuan/ton, both with a daily increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2] - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20% [2] - From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7% [4]

Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group is a leading producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and equipment [1][2] - The company has a comprehensive production line that is fully automated, enhancing production efficiency and product quality [1][2] Market Position - Yahua is recognized as a core supplier for major global automotive and battery manufacturers, with a strong customer base including Tesla, LGES, and CATL [3] - The company is also a leading player in the civil explosives industry in China, maintaining its competitive edge through strategic mergers and the promotion of electronic detonators [2] Production Capacity - The current comprehensive design capacity for lithium salt is 99,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 tons production line under construction, expected to bring total capacity to nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025 [4] Resource Security - Yahua has established a diversified lithium resource security system through self-controlled and purchased mines, including a significant project in Zimbabwe with an annual processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of raw ore [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company experienced significant growth in lithium product sales, achieving a record high for quarterly sales due to stable orders from key customers [6] - The overall business performance improved significantly compared to the same period last year, driven by both lithium and civil explosives sectors [6] R&D Progress - The company has made significant advancements in the development of solid-state battery materials, particularly in the synthesis of lithium sulfide, achieving industry-leading specifications [7] - Plans are underway to begin customer sample testing by the end of the year, with a pilot production line expected to be established in 2026 [7] Risk Management - Yahua employs futures contracts for lithium carbonate to hedge against price volatility, aiming to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [8]