Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][14]. Core Views - The company's main profit contribution in the first half of 2025 came from its civil explosives business, while the lithium segment is expected to recover in the second half due to the ramp-up of self-controlled lithium mines and downstream capacity expansion [3][14]. - The target price for the company is set at 17.00 yuan, reflecting a 20x PE valuation for 2026, considering the expected growth in lithium production and stable demand in the civil explosives sector [14]. Financial Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 34.23 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.36 billion yuan, up 32.9% year-on-year [14]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 18.86 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year but up 22.7% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.53 billion yuan, down 38.9% year-on-year and 35.4% quarter-on-quarter [14]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to a significant drop in lithium prices, with the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide falling by 26.97% year-on-year to 67,401 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025 [14]. Business Segments - The civil explosives segment reported revenue of 14.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.53 billion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year [14]. - The company is expected to see improvements in its lithium business in the second half of 2025 as self-controlled mines ramp up production and the price gap in refining improves [14]. - The civil explosives business has a diversified target market, with market shares of 5% and 11% for industrial explosives and electronic detonators, respectively, and a significant presence in the Sichuan region [14].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to supply disturbances [1]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Market Data**: - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 87,580, down 1,720 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 28,450, down 21,903; and the open interest was 76,200, down 4,917 [2]. - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 87,540, down 1,700 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 734,929, down 301,399; and the open interest was 414,097, down 7,009 [2]. - The warehouse receipt volume was 23,615, up 60 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Price Differences**: - The spot - 2509 was - 1,880, up 2,820 compared to T - 1; the spot - 2511 was - 1,840, up 2,800 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The 2509 - 2511 basis was 40, down 20 compared to T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,300, unchanged compared to T - 1; the spot - CIF was 16,035, up 1,073 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Raw Material Prices**: - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,185, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700, up 1,100 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 9,700, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400, up 1,100 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 82,710, up 1,000 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 8,850, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 36,490, up 320 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 35,085, up 315 compared to T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 32,085, up 255 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,530, up 300 compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 117,890, up 300 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 146,070, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,300, up 800 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of electrolyte (for ternary power) was 21,850, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) was 17,850, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,941 yuan/ton, up 1,147 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the battery - grade lithium carbonate price range was 84,300 - 87,100 yuan/ton, with an average of 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price range was 82,700 - 84,100 yuan/ton, with an average of 83,400 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [3]. - On August 19, Jiangte Motor announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., which had previously suspended production for equipment maintenance, would resume production soon [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate industry is experiencing a slight reduction in inventory and is in a state of volatile operation [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 85,140 yuan, the trading volume was 62,069 lots, and the open interest was 98,063 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 85,300 yuan, the trading volume was 1,060,127 lots, and the open interest was 389,177 lots [1] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 3,140 yuan, and the basis of spot - 2511 was - 3,300 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 937 US dollars, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,075 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salt Product Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,750 yuan [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,390 yuan, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 113,530 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 82,047 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,101 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,750 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan/ton [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, an increase of 424 tons compared to the previous week, and the weekly inventory was 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Operation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate strongly, with a trend strength of 1 on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs **A. Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate** - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 80,560, the volume was 16,374, and the open interest was 148,084. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 81,000, the volume was 38,071, and the open interest was 317,676 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 19,389 hands [3] - **Basis**: The spot - 2509 basis was -6,060, and the spot - 2511 basis was -6,500 [3] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 840, battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 [3] - **Downstream Consumption**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided [3] **B. Macro and Industry News** - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,567 yuan/ton, up 2,606 yuan/ton from the previous workday. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 - 73,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Company News**: CATL suspended mining operations at its Yichun project after the mining license expired on August 9 and is applying for a renewal, with little impact on its overall operations [5] - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In July, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger vehicle market was 54.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year - on - year. New forces' share was 21.4%, up 2 percentage points year - on - year, while Tesla's share was 4.1%, down 1.1 percentage points year - on - year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development plan for the petrochemical and new materials industry in Hainan Province, aiming for an output value exceeding 160 billion yuan by 2027, with a focus on upgrading and expanding the industry chain [2]. Group 1: Industry Development Plan - Hainan aims to enhance the petrochemical new materials industry by leveraging the benefits of the "fixed enterprise, fixed variety, fixed quantity" policy for crude oil imports, promoting a complete industry chain from oil to new materials [2]. - The plan includes expanding the olefin industry chain and developing high-end chemical new materials, while also stabilizing the aromatic hydrocarbon industry and extending downstream to specialty polyester and biodegradable materials [2]. Group 2: Current Industry Scale - Hainan has established a significant scale in the petrochemical and new materials industry, with a refining capacity of 10 million tons in Yangpu, supported by Hainan Refining and other enterprises [3]. - Hainan Refining's 800,000-ton refining project, operational since September 2006, serves as the foundation for the petrochemical industry in Yangpu [3]. - The aromatic hydrocarbon production capacity reached 2 million tons after the installation of two production units since 2013 [3]. Group 3: Key Enterprises and Projects - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has invested significantly in Hainan, with Hainan Refining's first phase costing 11.6 billion yuan and achieving a crude oil processing capacity of 9.2 million tons per year [5]. - The high-performance resin industry is represented by Jinfa Technology, which produces high-value-added resin materials for automotive, electronics, and home appliances [5]. - Hainan Baling Petrochemical's 170,000-ton styrene thermoplastic elastomer project enhances the region's capabilities in specialty rubber [5]. Group 4: Recent Project Progress - Hainan Lixing's cobalt-manganese and polyester catalyst project is expected to begin trial production in September 2023, with an investment of 274 million yuan [9]. - Sinopec's 60,000-ton/year continuous production facility for biodegradable materials PBST has successfully produced qualified products, marking a significant milestone in Hainan's new materials sector [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The production of lithium carbonate has increased this week, leading to inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the fermentation of the mining license renewal event [1][3] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Disk Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 71,920 yuan, the trading volume is 209,645 lots, and the open interest is 160,551 lots; for the 2511 contract, the closing price is 72,300 yuan, the trading volume is 766,669 lots, and the open interest is 289,832 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 16,443 lots [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is - 820 yuan, spot - 2511 is - 1,200 yuan, 2509 - 2511 is - 380 yuan, and the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,100 yuan [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 757 yuan, the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan, etc. [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 70,949 yuan/ton, up 218 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 7.11 million yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 6.9 million yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [2] 3. Production and Inventory - This week, the production of lithium carbonate is 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from last week, and the industry inventory is 142,418 tons, an increase of 692 tons from last week [3]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 碳酸锂：智利出口回升，关注矿证续期情况 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 69,260 | 1,580 | -1,340 | -120 | 5,600 | 2,040 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 103,705 | -69,442 | -689,204 | -1,230,454 | -109,599 | 90,659 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 161,898 | -13,368 | -110,855 | -200,156 | -1 ...

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt has increased to 265,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.9% [3] - The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.95, up by 4.5% week-on-week; the price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt sulfate is 5.15, up by 6.2% [3] - Carbon fiber price remains at 83.8 CNY/kg with a gross profit of -8.24 CNY/kg [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The CIF price of Li2O 5% lithium concentrate is 677 USD/ton, down by 4.51% week-on-week [4] - Prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, and battery-grade lithium carbonate are 73,200 CNY/ton, 70,200 CNY/ton, and 65,200 CNY/ton, with week-on-week increases of 7.9%, 6.95%, and 8.2% respectively [4] - The price of cobalt sulfate is 50,800 CNY/ton, up by 2.01% week-on-week [4] - Prices for lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 32,700 CNY/ton and 111,000 CNY/ton, remaining stable with slight increases of 0% and 0.4% respectively [4] - The price of neodymium oxide is 531.15 CNY/kg, up by 3.5% week-on-week [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 4.94 USD/kg, remaining stable [5] - EVA price is 10,100 CNY/ton, down by 0.5%, at a low level since 2013 [5] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating remains at 24.0 CNY/sqm [5] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - Prices for zirconium-related materials are stable, with prices for zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand at 14,750 CNY/ton, 150 CNY/kg, 9,000 CNY/kg, 13,950 CNY/ton, and 14,012.5 CNY/ton respectively [6] - The uranium price is projected to be 59.58 USD/lb in June 2025, up by 4.0% [6] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt tetroxide is 207,500 CNY/ton, up by 2.47% week-on-week [7] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide is stable at 175.0 CNY/kg [7] - The price of silicon carbide remains at 5,400.00 CNY/ton [7] - Prices for high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,755.00 CNY/kg, 2,575.00 CNY/kg, and 2,675.00 CNY/kg, with changes of -1.7%, 0%, and 0% respectively [7] - The price of germanium dioxide is stable at 9,800 CNY/kg, with 50% used for optical fibers and 15% for electronics and solar devices [7] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices for platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 312.00 CNY/g, 1,865.00 CNY/g, and 1,305.00 CNY/g, with changes of -6.3%, +9.4%, and +5.7% respectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - The wealth of Li Liangbin, known as the "Lithium King of Jiangxi," has decreased significantly, dropping to 13.26 billion yuan, a reduction of 25.34 billion yuan from its peak in 2022, closely linked to the declining performance of Ganfeng Lithium [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2022, Ganfeng Lithium achieved a net profit of 20.504 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 292.16%. However, in 2023, the net profit plummeted by 75.87% to 4.947 billion yuan, and in 2024, the company reported a loss of 2.074 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 141.93% [5][6]. - For the first half of 2025, Ganfeng Lithium anticipates a net loss between 300 million to 550 million yuan, compared to a loss of 760 million yuan in the same period last year [6]. Debt Situation - Ganfeng Lithium's debt ratio has risen sharply from 33% in 2021 to 54.95% by the end of the first quarter of 2025 [7]. - The total liabilities increased from 12.89 billion yuan at the end of 2021 to 57.443 billion yuan by the end of the first quarter of 2025, representing a growth of 44.553 billion yuan [8]. - The company has been actively seeking to optimize its debt structure and has registered for the issuance of medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds to alleviate debt pressure [9][10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the lithium salt production expansion project by Zhongmin Resources signifies a strategic move towards cost reduction, technological upgrade, and enhanced competitiveness in the lithium salt industry [1] Company Summary - Zhongmin Resources is set to increase its lithium salt production capacity from 66,000 tons per year to 71,000 tons with the completion of the new project [1] - The total investment for the new project is 121 million yuan, focusing on the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, with a production line upgrade aimed at reducing production costs [1] - The project will involve a six-month shutdown for maintenance and technological upgrades, optimizing traditional roasting equipment and processing methods [1] Industry Summary - The expansion project aligns with the industry's shift towards green and low-carbon development models, reflecting a broader trend in the lithium salt sector [1] - The move is expected to enhance the overall competitiveness of Zhongmin Resources in the lithium salt market, which is crucial given the increasing demand for lithium in battery production [1]