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中国神华(601088):点评:集团煤电化运资产有望注入,将夯实公司一体化运营模式
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shenhua (601088) is "Buy" [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the group’s coal, electricity, and chemical transportation assets are expected to be injected, which will solidify the company's integrated operation model [6]. - The transaction involves 13 assets from the controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, aimed at resolving competition issues and consolidating high-quality coal resources into the listed company [6]. - The company’s performance in the first half of 2025 is projected to be stable, with a net profit forecast of approximately 236-256 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline [6]. - The high dividend yield is emphasized as a long-term investment value, with a projected dividend payout ratio of at least 65% of the net profit [6]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to falling market coal prices, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.47, 2.52, and 2.56 yuan respectively [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 338,375 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 49,108 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 32.0% in 2025, down from 34.0% in 2024 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 12.0% [2]. Market Data - As of August 4, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 37.56 yuan, with a market capitalization of 619,403 million yuan [3]. - The stock has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 for the forecasted years [6]. - The dividend yield is approximately 6.02%, based on the most recent dividend announcement [3].