1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period will be a new turning point for the urban investment industry. Urban investment enterprises need to seize development opportunities, use relevant policies, and address long - standing issues such as low profitability, poor asset quality, high debt pressure, and heavy reliance on local government resources [3][4]. - In 2024, under the "package debt resolution" policy, urban investment enterprises showed some positive changes, but the substantial improvement of the overall fundamentals still needs further observation. Key provinces achieved certain debt - resolution results, but their profitability, investment, and financing capabilities were weaker than other regions, and the debt - repayment pressure was prominent [2][15]. - Urban investment enterprises in the process of transformation need to pay attention to issues such as insufficient profitability in the initial stage, low asset quality, and high debt pressure, and promote the smooth transition between old and new businesses [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asset Side - The expansion speed of urban investment enterprises was lower than the growth rate of social financing, and assets were concentrated towards the top. The asset growth rate of urban investment enterprises in key provinces slowed down significantly. By the end of 2024, the total asset scale of urban investment enterprises reached 162.70 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.31%, lower than the social financing growth rate of 8% in 2024 [8][17]. - The liquidity of urban investment assets weakened. The scale of monetary funds decreased significantly, and the scale and proportion of accounts receivable increased. By the end of 2024, the total scale of monetary funds of urban investment enterprises was 7.59 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.65% [24]. - Due to investment constraints, infrastructure business was restricted, and the growth rate of inventory slowed down. The scale of construction - in - progress projects of urban investment enterprises in key provinces decreased. In 2024, the inventory growth rate of urban investment enterprises was only 3.24%, a significant decrease of 5.46 percentage points [30][33]. Liability Side - The growth rate of debt scale slowed down. The asset - liability ratio and the scale of interest - bearing debt of urban investment enterprises in key provinces decreased for the first time. By the end of 2024, the total liability scale of urban investment enterprises reached 101.13 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.33%, and the growth rate decreased by 5.19 percentage points compared with 2023 [38][40]. - The financing cost of urban investment enterprises increased slightly but was still in a downward channel. The cost in key provinces decreased more significantly but was still relatively high. In 2024, the median financing cost of urban investment enterprises was 5.16%, a slight increase of 9BP compared with 2023 [46]. - The scale and proportion of non - standard financing of urban investment enterprises "double - dropped", and the debt structure of urban investment enterprises in key provinces improved significantly. In 2024, the proportion of non - standard financing of urban investment enterprises dropped to 8.57%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [49]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities turned positive for the first time in five years, and nearly 80% of urban investment enterprises in key provinces had positive cash flow net. In 2024, the net cash flow from operating activities of urban investment enterprises was 0.81 trillion yuan, turning positive for the first time in five years [12][53]. - The cash outflow from investment activities slowed down. Urban investment in key provinces was more restricted, but long - term equity investment improved. In 2024, the cash outflow from investment activities of urban investment enterprises was 8.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.49% [12][56]. - The cash inflow from financing activities was under pressure, and the net amount decreased. Urban investment financing in key provinces was more restricted. In 2024, the cash inflow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises was 29.98 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.27%, and the growth rate decreased significantly by 6.53 percentage points [13][61]. Debt - Repayment Ability - The debt - repayment ability of urban investment enterprises continued to decline, and urban investment enterprises in key provinces faced greater debt - repayment pressure. In 2024, the current ratio, the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt, and the EBITDA interest coverage ratio of all urban investment enterprises were 2.41, 0.30, and 2.72 respectively [65]. - The debt - repayment ability of entities facing the maturity or put - back of urban investment bonds in 2025 tended to weaken. From May to December 2025, the entities facing the maturity or put - back of urban investment bonds were mainly AAA - rated and municipal - level. The maturity pressure in key provinces such as Heilongjiang and Gansu was relatively large [69].

核心观点 一揽子化债系列政策陆续出台后，城投债监管持续从严，2025年1季度城投债（含转型城投）发行规模进一步下降，但净融资略有复苏迹象；省份虽以东 部为主，但在中西部亦有分布，且包括重点化债省份天津和广西。从首发企业视角看（不含可转债产品发行人、金融机构发行人、结构化产品发行人，全 文同），安徽、河南、四川、陕西、新疆5省[1]的首发企业主要以城投转型类企业为主，募集资金用途以新增融资为主，AA级主体发债均有担保，发行 市场总体以交易所市场为主。 报告正文如下 2023年7月24日，中央政治局会议提出"要有效防范化解地方债务风险，制定实施一揽子化债方案"，国办发[2023]35号文的发布正式启动本轮化债政策， 随后的化债政策持续推陈出新。受相关政策影响，城投企业在债券市场的融资政策同步收紧并持续至今，2024年城投债净融资规模大幅缩减，城投债总体 进入存量时代。 在一揽子化债系列政策出台的同时，城投企业转型进程也在稳步推进。城投企业转型需依托于区域资源禀赋及现有的业务优势展开，转型城投在债券市场 的融资渠道也在逐步打开。本文从2025年以来首发企业的案例视角，分析下一步债券市场的融资机会，并聚焦安徽、河南、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "base investment") industry policies continue the overall idea of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" of the "package debt - resolution" policy in 2024, and pay more attention to the balance between debt resolution and development [3][5]. - The "package debt - resolution" policy has achieved phased results, with many regions achieving zero implicit debts. The industry adheres to resolving debts while developing and vice versa, strengthens special - bond support, and guides the standardized development of government investment funds to assist the transformation of base - investment enterprises [5][7][8]. - Under the influence of policies, the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved, the financing channels are continuously adjusted, the marginal liquidity is improved, and the bond financing cost is reduced. However, the non - standard debt situation in some provinces still needs attention [14]. - In 2025, the base - investment industry policies are expected to continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts", and the industry's debt risk is generally controllable. New investment space may be opened, but issues such as the tightening of financing channels, non - standard debt replacement progress, and changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation need to be concerned [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **Policy Continuity and New Requirements**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies continue the "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" idea of 2024, and the 2025 national government work report puts forward new requirements such as dynamically adjusting the list of high - risk debt regions and opening up new investment space [3][5]. - **Phased Results of Debt Resolution**: In the first quarter of 2025, many regions announced that they had achieved zero implicit debts in 2024, involving 10 provinces and 23 cities. For example, Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province used 11.881 billion yuan of special bonds to replace implicit debts and completed the task of zero implicit debts [5]. - **Debt Resolution in Development**: The 2025 national government work report proposes to dynamically adjust the list of high - risk debt regions. Some regions may be planning to withdraw from the list of key provinces. The central bank also guides the resolution of financial debt risks of financing platforms and supports their market - oriented transformation [7]. - **Support for Enterprise Transformation**: Special bonds are strengthened to support infrastructure construction, rural revitalization, and consumption - related fields. The State Council General Office issues a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange revises relevant rules to guide the transformation of base - investment enterprises [8][9][11]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relieved Short - term Debt - Repayment Pressure**: Since November 2024, the government has increased the local government debt limit to replace existing implicit debts. In the first quarter of 2025, 1.34 trillion yuan of special bonds were issued for this purpose, exceeding half of the annual quota, and the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved [14][15]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels**: In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of base - investment bonds decreased compared with the same period last year. The non - standard debt scale decreased, and the proportion of bank loans in the debt of base - investment enterprises may increase [16]. - **Improved Liquidity and Reduced Financing Cost**: The liquidity of base - investment enterprises has been continuously improved, and the weighted average issuance interest rate of base - investment bonds in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 11BP compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. The financing cost of base - investment enterprises in key provinces has decreased significantly [17]. - **Converged Non - standard and Bill Public Opinions**: The negative public opinions of base - investment non - standard risks have converged. In the first quarter of 2025, the total number of non - standard risk events decreased by about 41% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 and about 51% compared with the first quarter of 2024. However, the non - standard risk situation in some regions still needs attention [18]. - **Released Liquidity by Special Bonds**: Special bonds support project investment and land asset recovery. In the first quarter of 2025, the new quota of government special bonds for infrastructure construction increased significantly, and some special bonds were used for land reserve projects, which helped base - investment enterprises dispose of idle and inefficient land assets and release liquidity [19][20]. - **Enterprise Transformation and High - quality Development**: Policy guidance promotes the transformation and high - quality development of base - investment enterprises. The proportion of market - oriented entities among bond - issuing enterprises has increased, and the transformation is expected to accelerate [21][22]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Controllable Debt Risk**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies will continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts". The debt risk of the industry is generally controllable, but the implementation of financial debt - resolution policies and the adjustment of financing channels need to be concerned [23][25]. - **New Investment Space and Enterprise Transformation**: The current debt - resolution work emphasizes the balance between debt resolution and development. New investment space may be opened, and base - investment enterprises are expected to focus on key investment fields and industrial investment. The process of enterprises withdrawing from the platform and industrial transformation is expected to accelerate [25]. - **Challenges and Concerns**: The fundamental improvement of base - investment enterprises is still under pressure, and the progress of non - standard debt replacement is uncertain, which may affect the public opinion trend. The changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation also need continuous attention [25][33][34].