"一揽子化债"背景下济宁市 债务化解及城投转型进展 政府公共评级二部 作者：刘艳美 ymliu@ccxi.com.cn 刘绍思 shsliu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际基础设施投融资行业 1 / 17 中诚信国际基础设施投融资行业 城"一揽子化债"背景下济宁市债务化解及 城投转型进展 摘要 ◼ 区域概况 ◼ 化债进展 ◼ 城投转型 2 / 17 ➢ 济宁市资源禀赋突出，产业结构持续优化，经济发展位居山东省中上游， 但区县经济发展分化明显。 ➢ 济宁市财政实力稳步提升，财政收入质量较好，但财政自给能力较为一般， 土地财政依赖度较高，且区县财政发展失衡较为突出。 ➢ 济宁市政府法定债务风险较为可控，但城投企业有息债务突出，两者叠加 后的债务率超 300%，并高度集中于经济强区县，且区县类城投企业曾出现 过票据逾期等负面舆情，区县债务风险值得关注。 ➢ 济宁市多元举措推进债务化解，持续健全完善政府债务管理机制，强化"借、 用、管、还"闭环式全流程管理。 ➢ 2024 年以来济宁市城投债务增速有所放缓，债务结构有所优化，融资成本 有所下降，但融资成本仍较高且短期偿债压力仍存。 ➢ 济宁市城投债发行期限趋于长期 ...

报告共计：19页 今天分享的是：山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村——贵州省地方债务化解观察与展望 贵州省地方债务化解情况总结与展望 贵州省作为西部大开发综合改革示范区和"东数西算"关键承载地，在区域协调发展中具有重要地位，但受地形地貌、产业基础 等因素影响，经济财政实力偏弱，地方债务问题较为突出，近年通过多元举措推进化债工作并取得阶段性成效。 债务特征方面，贵州省地方债务规模持续增长，2024年底地方政府债务余额17537.09亿元，城投企业债务规模约9000亿元，债务 负担处于全国中上游水平。区域分布上呈现明显分化，贵阳市和遵义市城投企业债务占全省比例合计达60%左右，债务压力尤 为突出。部分地市城投企业面临流动性承压问题，现金类资产对短期债务覆盖不足，且城投债曾面临集中兑付压力，非标负面 事件和票据逾期情况较为集中，主要分布在遵义市、贵阳市等地。 贵州省位于我国西南内陆腹地,是西部大开发综合改革示范区,西部陆海新通道 关键节点,"东数西算"工程的关键承载地,也是连接成渝地区双城经济圈和粤港澳 大湾区的重要桥梁,在我国区域协调发展方面发挥重要作用。但受制于地形地貌、交 通区位、产业结构基础等因素,贵州省经济总 ...

山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村 ——贵州省地方债务化解观察与展望 联合资信 公用评级四部 |刘 嫱|刘 成|刘亚利 摘要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 近年来，贵州省地方债务呈现规模持续增长、区域债务负担偏重，地市债务压力分化、贵阳和遵义区 域债务压力较大，部分地市城投企业流动性承压，城投债兑付较为集中，负面舆情持续存在等特征。 贵州省化债资源相对较弱，但中央政府政策支持力度较大，近年来化债手段日趋丰富，贵州省通过金 融支持化债、特殊再融资债券和特殊新增专项债、盘活国有资产，以及省属国资平台提供支持、安排 各类财政资金、设立应急资金池等多措并举，化债工作取得一定成效。具体来看，发债城投企业债务 规模压降明显，融资渠道改善，城投债信用利差收窄、集中兑付压力减轻；但仍需关注到贵州省城投 债信用利差仍处于较高水平，城投企业短期流动性持续承压等问题。 短期来看，随着一揽子化债及增量化债政策的持续实施，贵州省作为重点省份将持续受益，在政策保 护期内流动性风险整体可控，但城投企业还本付息压力仍较大。长期来看，债务化解依赖地方政府及 城投企业的自身发展。贵州省在白酒、矿产精深加工、数字经济、新能源、特色 ...

从订单降速到清欠发力，"一揽子"化 债第二阶段建筑企业信用风险怎么看？ 联合资信 工商评级一部 刘珺轩 赵兮 李旭 2023 年 7 月，中央政治局会议上提出"制定实施一揽子化债方案"，明确"保存 量、控增量"的化债核心思路。地方政府相关项目在建筑业需求端占据重要份额，本 文回顾了本轮化债以来建筑行业表现，并对后续化债进程对建筑行业的影响进行了研 判。从本轮化债的第一阶段情况看，样本建筑企业地方政府相关项目订单、收入均有 所下降，回款和周转效率恶化，特别是高地方政府项目占比的地方建筑国企短期偿付 压力偏大。"6+4+2 万亿"出台以来，本轮化债进入第二阶段，在央地债务结构优化以 及建立防范化解地方政府债务风险长效机制背景下，预计建筑行业整体需求结构将发 生持续调整，建工企业的信用水平将加大分化。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、"一揽子"化债政策梳理 本轮化债政策力度大、指向准，建立了监测口径更全、预算约束更强、监管问责 更严的长效机制，防风险与促发展并重，推动经济发展和债务管理良性循环。 自 2014 年以来，我国已推动多轮地方政府化债。2014 年开始的首轮"化债"主要 将存量债务纳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the announcements of "zeroing out" implicit debts in various regions have become more frequent, and the pace of urban investment platforms exiting the list has significantly accelerated. As of October 30, 2025, 70 regions across the country have officially announced the achievement of implicit debt zeroing out, with district - and county - level units being the main battlefield for debt resolution [1][7]. - The number of financing platforms has decreased by over 70%. Jiangsu Province has the highest number of exits, mainly district - and county - level non - bond - issuing platforms. The next stage of the "exit list" work may focus on higher - level bond - issuing entities [1][12]. - After exiting the list, the credit evaluation of urban investment platforms has entered a new stage of significant differentiation. In the short term, liquidity is crucial; in the medium term, the focus is on hematopoietic ability; in the long term, the key lies in functional positioning [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "One - Package Debt Resolution" Anniversary with Remarkable Achievements and Many Regions Announcing Zero Implicit Debts - Since the introduction of the "one - package debt resolution plan" in November 2024, the local debt resolution work has advanced for nearly a year. By October 30, 2025, 70 regions announced zero implicit debts, including 11 prefecture - level and 59 district - and county - level units [1][7]. - Other regions have also disclosed clear goals for zeroing out implicit debts, such as Shandong aiming for zero implicit debts by the end of 2028 and Shaoxing, Zhejiang achieving zero implicit debts by the end of 2025 [7]. 3.2 Over 70% Reduction in the Number of Financing Platforms and Their Characteristics 3.2.1 Jiangsu Province Has the Most Announced Exit - List Entities, Mainly District - and County - Level Non - Bond - Issuing Entities - As of September 2025, the number of national financing platforms and the scale of outstanding operating financial debts decreased by 71% and 62% respectively compared to March 2023. Among the 447 "exit - list" urban investment entities officially disclosed since 2022, Jiangsu accounted for nearly 70%, followed by Henan with 36, Chongqing with 29, and Qinghai with 13 [12]. - District - and county - level urban investment entities were the main body, and non - bond - issuing entities accounted for 94% [12]. 3.2.2 The Next Stage of the "Exit - List" Work May Focus on Higher - Level Bond - Issuing Entities - The current debt resolution path is to prioritize cleaning up platforms with simple debt relationships and small market impacts. Based on the fact that over 70% of financing platforms have exited, it is estimated that the implicit debts of district - and county - level urban investment in some provinces may have been mostly resolved, and the next stage may focus on higher - level bond - issuing entities [19]. 3.3 Insights into the Transformation Direction of Urban Investment from Asset - Liability Changes 3.3.1 Limited New Bond Issuance after Exiting the List, with Marginal Improvement in Bank Liquidity Support - Among the 447 entities that announced exiting the financing platform list, 420 were non - bond - issuing entities. Focusing on the 27 bond - issuing entities, as of June 30, 2025, only 4 of the 18 entities with outstanding bonds increased their bond scale compared to June 30, 2024 [23]. - According to the semi - annual report data in 2025, the short - term borrowing balance of these exit - list bond - issuing entities increased by 40.61% year - on - year, the bond balance increased slightly by 6%, and the long - term borrowing decreased slightly by 0.72%. The liquidity support from commercial banks for "exit - list" entities has improved [23]. 3.3.2 Changes in Assets and Liabilities of Urban Investment after Exiting the List - **Asset Side**: The pace of project construction has slowed down, and the asset management function has been enhanced. Urban investment enterprises have become more cautious in new project investments. The significant increase in fixed assets may be due to the injection of operating assets by local governments, aiming to enhance the platform's hematopoietic ability [2][29]. - **Liability Side**: Short - term liquidity support is prominent, and the long - term financing function needs to be restored. The growth of long - term borrowing is low. Local governments prioritize liquidity safety, and new project investments are more cautious. Special bonds have replaced some bank medium - and long - term loans to some extent [2][32]. 3.4 How to Evaluate the Credit of Urban Investment after Exiting the List 3.4.1 Market Perception Has Matured, and Valuation and Credit Qualifications Are Becoming More Differentiated - The market reaction has gone through stages from significant initial divergence and limited pricing differentiation to subsequent convergence of expectations and finally entered a new stage of significant differentiation based on individual qualifications. The future market will conduct more refined credit evaluations of exit - list entities [33]. 3.4.2 Reconstruction of the Credit Framework - Short - Term Focus on Liquidity, Medium - Term on Hematopoietic Ability, and Long - Term on Functional Positioning - **Short - term**: The key is to evaluate the thickness of the liquidity safety cushion, including the coverage of short - term debts by monetary funds, available bank credit lines, and the scale of high - quality realizable assets [37]. - **Medium - term**: The core is to examine the transformation effectiveness and independent survival ability of the platform, mainly looking at the proportion of operating business income, profit quality, and net inflow of operating cash flow [38]. - **Long - term**: The key is to determine the platform's irreplaceability in the local economic ecosystem and the sustainability of its business model. Its credit foundation will shift from "implicit government guarantee" to "endogenous value" [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In Q3 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "base investment") industry policies continued to develop in depth on the basis of the dual - track approach of "controlling new debts and resolving existing ones" and "promoting development". The "package debt - resolution" policy was further refined, the debt management became more standardized and transparent, the process of platform exit accelerated, and a series of policies were introduced to support the base investment enterprises in expanding effective investment and promoting transformation. The implementation of these policies effectively mitigated local government debt risks, but challenges such as the management of operating debts of base investment enterprises still remained [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Review - **"Package Debt - Resolution" Policy Deeply Refined**: As of August 2025, 4 trillion yuan of the one - time increase of 6 trillion yuan in special debt quota had been issued, and the 2 trillion yuan quota for implicit debt replacement in 2025 was basically used up. 800 billion yuan was allocated from new local government special bonds to support debt resolution. Financial debt - resolution also accelerated, and measures to clean up arrears to enterprises were strengthened. Debt management was more standardized, with stricter new bond issuance review and upgraded debt monitoring [4][6]. - **Dynamic Adjustment of High - Risk Debt Areas and Accelerated Platform Exit**: As of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms had exited. Some provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had achieved or were applying to exit high - risk debt areas [7]. - **Support for Base Investment Enterprises to Expand Effective Investment**: In 2025, the new special bond quota was increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. As of September 30, 2025, 3.6 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued, completing 82% of the annual quota. A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan was arranged, and policies to support the construction and operation of PPP stock projects were introduced [8][10]. - **Accelerated Stock Asset Revitalization and Strengthened Transformation Policy Guidance**: A series of policies were introduced to guide the industrial transformation of base investment enterprises, and local governments continued to deepen the revitalization of state - owned assets [11]. Policy Main Impacts - **Accelerated Implementation of Local Government Replacement Bonds and Mitigated Debt Risks**: As of September 30, 2025, local government new bonds had completed 81.92% of the annual quota, and replacement bonds for implicit debt had completed 99.31% of the annual quota. The scope of special bond investment expanded, which was expected to relieve the investment and financing pressure of base investment enterprises [17]. - **Tightened Supply of Urban Investment Bonds**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total issuance of urban investment bonds decreased by 9.53% year - on - year, and the net financing was negative. The stock of urban investment bonds decreased by 6.38% compared with the end of 2024 [18]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels and Optimized Debt Structure of Base Investment Enterprises**: Under the influence of policies, the proportion of credit financing of base investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing and non - standard financing decreased [19]. - **Reduced Number of Risk Events of Base Investment Enterprises, but Attention Needed for Operating Debts and Interest Payments**: The number of non - standard risk events of base investment enterprises decreased compared with 2024, but the operating debts, interest payments, and government - occupied funds of base investment enterprises still needed attention [20]. - **Phased Achievements in "Exiting Platform" and Transformation of Base Investment Enterprises**: Since the implementation of the "package debt - resolution" policy, about 658 base investment enterprises declared themselves as "market - oriented business entities", and more than 110 base investment enterprises announced to exit the platform list in the first three quarters of 2025 [21]. Industry Development Expectations and Opportunities - **Continuous Implementation of "Package Debt - Resolution" Policy with Regional Differences**: The "package debt - resolution" policy will continue to be implemented, but there are regional differences in debt - resolution progress and risks. Future policies are expected to be more refined and differentiated [23]. - **Operating Debts to Become the Key Focus and Support for Enterprise Transformation**: As implicit debts are gradually resolved, operating debts will become the key focus. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will help base investment enterprises open up new investment spaces and promote transformation [26]. - **Accelerated Transformation of Base Investment Enterprises with Risks to Be Alerted and Attention to Government - Enterprise Relationship**: The transformation of base investment enterprises may bring compliance and credit risks. The change in the government - enterprise relationship of base investment enterprises in the post - implicit debt era needs continuous attention [29]. Conclusion The base investment industry policies continued to develop in depth, effectively mitigating local government debt risks. However, the operating debts, interest payments, and government - occupied funds of base investment enterprises still need attention. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide opportunities for enterprise transformation, but regional differences exist. Risks in the transformation process and changes in the government - enterprise relationship need to be continuously monitored [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The gradual exit of local government financing platforms marks the end of an era, necessitating a transformation towards market-oriented operations for these entities [2][10]. Group 1: Exit from Government Financing Platforms - Since 2025, numerous local government financing platforms have announced their exit from government financing, with over 15 platforms making such announcements in October alone [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued a notice in August 2025, mandating the complete exit of local government financing platforms by June 2027 [1][2]. - As of September 26, 2025, 114 local government financing platforms have officially announced their exit, with Shandong leading with 28 exits [2][3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The "One Package Debt Relief" policy has been a driving force behind the structured exit of financing platforms, with clear timelines and standards established [2][3]. - The exit process is influenced by both policy enforcement and the internal need for financing platforms to transition towards market-oriented operations [3][4]. Group 3: Transformation and New Business Models - Financing platforms are encouraged to enhance their self-sustaining capabilities by shifting focus from traditional infrastructure projects to market-oriented businesses that generate continuous cash flow [10][11]. - The restructuring process involves consolidating core business areas, expanding into new market opportunities, and effectively managing existing assets to generate revenue [11][12]. - The transition from reliance on government credit to independent market operations is crucial for the sustainability of these platforms [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Communication and Debt Management - Effective communication with financial institutions regarding existing debts is essential during the exit process, ensuring that all stakeholders are informed and agreements are reached [5][6]. - The management of existing operational debts must be handled carefully, utilizing strategies such as debt restructuring and asset optimization to maintain financial credibility [5][6]. Group 5: Ongoing Relationship with Local Governments - Despite exiting government financing platforms, the relationship between these entities and local governments remains significant, necessitating a clear delineation of responsibilities [6][7]. - The support from local governments is expected to continue, as these platforms still play vital roles in regional development [7][8]. Group 6: Regulatory Environment and Accountability - The regulatory environment has tightened around local government financing, with increased scrutiny on hidden debts and accountability for local officials [9][10]. - Recent cases of hidden debt have highlighted the need for compliance with national policies, reinforcing the urgency for financing platforms to adapt to new operational frameworks [9][10].

Core Insights - The report analyzes the changes in local government financing platforms in the context of a nearly one-year anniversary of the debt replacement policy, highlighting the increase in local government debt limits and the implications for financing resources [3]. Group 1: Local Government Financing - In November 2024, the National People's Congress approved a resolution to increase the local government debt limit by 6 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts, adding to the 8 trillion yuan allocated annually from new local government bonds for five years, resulting in a total increase of 10 trillion yuan in debt resources for local governments [3]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The report provides a performance overview of various industries, with non-ferrous metals leading with a 66.3% increase over the past year, followed by power equipment at 50.1% and steel at 25.0% [1]. - Conversely, the media and social services sectors showed declines of -7.8% and -6.9% respectively over the same period [1]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Ankerui (300286.SZ) is positioned as a leader in microgrid energy management, with projected net profits of 250 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 420 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 45%, 31%, and 30% respectively [5]. - Jiamaojiu (09922.HK) is expected to optimize its store count and improve performance through a new store model, with projected revenues of 5.668 billion yuan, 6.063 billion yuan, and 6.331 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [6]. - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) reported a 100.52% increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with expectations of continued growth in net profits of 4.240 billion yuan, 5.761 billion yuan, and 6.914 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "infrastructure investment") industry continued to implement the working idea of "debt resolution in development", promoting debt risk resolution through debt - end "pressure relief" and investment - end "oxygen increase", and enhancing the development momentum of infrastructure investment enterprises and local economies [2]. - The short - term policy benefits in the infrastructure investment industry conflict with the long - term "weak" fundamentals. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the resolution of the large - scale operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises still takes time. In the context of accelerating platform exit and transformation, credit risks and regional risk resonance should be guarded against, and the evolution of the government - enterprise relationship needs to be dynamically examined and evaluated [17][18]. - In the second half of 2025, new investment space may be opened, which is conducive to accelerating the transformation and development of infrastructure investment enterprises and promoting the re - balance between "debt resolution and development" [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **New special bonds reach a new high and support scope changes**: In 2025, the new special bond quota increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 12.8%, with 800 billion yuan earmarked for resolving existing implicit debts. As of June 29, 2112.705 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for 48.02% of the annual quota. The support scope has expanded, including real estate acquisition, idle land revitalization, emerging industry infrastructure, and urban renewal projects. The "self - review and self - issuance" mechanism can improve the efficiency of special bond issuance and use [3][4]. - **Local government debt risk resolution advances**: In the first half of the year, large - scale debt replacement was carried out. Refinancing bonds were issued in advance, reaching 2.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. Special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts totaled 1795.938 billion yuan, nearly 90% of the annual 2 - trillion - yuan quota. Many places promoted financial debt resolution and explored emergency fund support. Central authorities emphasized clearing government arrears, and the Ministry of Finance announced six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability to prevent new implicit debts [5]. - **Dynamic optimization of debt risk list management and enterprise transformation**: The government emphasized the dynamic adjustment of high - risk debt area lists and supported the opening of new investment space. Regulatory authorities strengthened the supervision of urban investment bond issuance, guiding infrastructure investment enterprises to exit platforms and transform into industries [6]. - **Optimization and innovation of public investment models**: The State Council issued a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds. The PPP model was innovated, and local governments explored new practices such as the public infrastructure leasing mechanism. Many provinces issued incentive policies for infrastructure REITs [7][8]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relief of short - term solvency pressure**: As of June 29, 2025, local government bonds' new issuance totaled 2558.122 billion yuan, 49.19% of the annual quota, and refinancing bonds totaled 2877.486 billion yuan, with 1795.938 billion yuan used for replacing implicit debts, improving the refinancing environment of infrastructure investment enterprises [10]. - **Expansion of special bond investment areas and increased regional differentiation**: As of June 29, 2025, new special bonds of 2112.705 billion yuan were issued, 48.02% of the annual quota. The issuance progress was faster than the previous year. However, the issuance was more differentiated among regions [11]. - **Tightening of urban investment bond supply**: In the first half of 2025, 4339 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2808.708 billion yuan and a net financing of - 76.36 billion yuan. The net financing decreased year - on - year, and the supply continued to tighten [11]. - **Decline in financing costs**: In the first half of 2025, the weighted average issuance interest rate of national urban investment bonds was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points [12]. - **Optimization of financing channels**: The proportion of credit financing of urban investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing decreased, and the scale and proportion of non - standard financing both declined [13]. - **Convergence of non - standard and bill risks**: In the first half of 2025, there were 16 urban investment non - standard risk events, and the number of new bond - issuing urban investment enterprises entering the continuous overdue list from January to June was 9, showing a significant decrease [14]. - **Acceleration of platform exit and transformation**: Policies promoted the high - quality acceleration of infrastructure investment enterprises' "platform exit" and transformation. However, the new issuance space of urban investment bonds may be further narrowed, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old is expected to remain high [15]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Conflict between short - term benefits and long - term fundamentals**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the conflict between short - term policy benefits and long - term "weak" fundamentals is still prominent. A large number of operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises are difficult to resolve [17][18]. - **Risks in enterprise transformation**: The exit from platforms and industrial transformation of infrastructure investment enterprises will continue to accelerate. Attention should be paid to the credit risks under the phenomena of "shelling" of traditional urban investment, "formalization" and "radicalization" of transformed urban investment, and the possible regional risk resonance [19][20]. - **Evolution of government - enterprise relationship**: The promotion of goals such as platform exit, urban investment transformation, and implicit debt clearance will force the government - enterprise relationship to become clearer. However, it is necessary to dynamically examine and evaluate the evolution of this relationship [21][22].

Key Points - The urban investment bond market in the first half of 2025 experienced a significant decline, with issuance reaching 2.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.15%, marking a three-year low. The net financing was negative at -1200.04 billion yuan, with four consecutive months of net outflow from March to June, the longest duration in history and the earliest occurrence within the year [1][22][37] - The overall issuance interest rate decreased to 2.40%, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year. However, the decline in interest rates for lower-rated urban investment bonds was minimal, with AA- rated bonds even experiencing an increase [6][30] - The average maturity of issued bonds extended to 3.89 years, reflecting a trend towards longer-term financing. The broad and narrow definitions of refinancing ratios reached 97.57% and 94.13%, respectively, indicating a high reliance on refinancing [6][35] - Trading volume in the urban investment bond market decreased by nearly 15% year-on-year, with trading spreads compressing compared to the end of 2024 [40] - Both key and non-key regions experienced net outflows, with non-key regions showing a deeper level of outflow. In 13 provinces, the refinancing ratio reached 100%, with 10 of these being key provinces [7][43] - Credit risk in the urban investment sector showed slight improvement, with fewer default events reported. However, the overall credit quality remains a concern, as evidenced by the downgrades in certain provinces [8][11] - For the second half of 2025, the expected issuance scale is projected to be between 2.34 trillion and 2.50 trillion yuan, with a potential for continued negative net financing in certain months. The refinancing ratio is anticipated to remain high, and the hierarchy of financing entities may continue to rise [9][10] - The urban investment sector is facing significant challenges, including high debt pressures and the need for effective policy optimization to support financing cycles and economic development. The ongoing transformation of urban investment entities is critical, with a focus on balancing debt resolution and business expansion [10][11][12]