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2025年7月图说债市月报:金融赋能新型工业化转型升级,关注制造业债券投资机遇-20250813
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-13 03:32
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support for the new industrialization transformation, highlighting investment opportunities in manufacturing bonds due to favorable policies [5][6][7] - The July manufacturing PMI is reported at 49.3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with new orders and production indices also showing declines [8][26] - The issuance of credit bonds decreased in July, totaling 12,455.3 billion, a reduction of 1,471.83 billion from the previous month, while the net financing amount decreased to 2,787.19 billion [10][38] Group 2 - The report notes that the average issuance rates for credit bonds generally declined, with specific examples showing decreases between 2-29 basis points, while some specific bonds saw slight increases [39][40] - The report indicates that the credit risk remains manageable, with a rolling default rate of 0.23% in July and no new defaulting entities [14][16] - The report highlights the ongoing tightening of implicit debt regulation, emphasizing the need to prevent "the risk of risk disposal" [18][19]
基础设施投融资行业2025年二季度政策回顾及展望:“存量优化”与“增量突破”双轮驱动
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-08-01 07:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "infrastructure investment") industry continued to implement the working idea of "debt resolution in development", promoting debt risk resolution through debt - end "pressure relief" and investment - end "oxygen increase", and enhancing the development momentum of infrastructure investment enterprises and local economies [2]. - The short - term policy benefits in the infrastructure investment industry conflict with the long - term "weak" fundamentals. Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the resolution of the large - scale operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises still takes time. In the context of accelerating platform exit and transformation, credit risks and regional risk resonance should be guarded against, and the evolution of the government - enterprise relationship needs to be dynamically examined and evaluated [17][18]. - In the second half of 2025, new investment space may be opened, which is conducive to accelerating the transformation and development of infrastructure investment enterprises and promoting the re - balance between "debt resolution and development" [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **New special bonds reach a new high and support scope changes**: In 2025, the new special bond quota increased to 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 12.8%, with 800 billion yuan earmarked for resolving existing implicit debts. As of June 29, 2112.705 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for 48.02% of the annual quota. The support scope has expanded, including real estate acquisition, idle land revitalization, emerging industry infrastructure, and urban renewal projects. The "self - review and self - issuance" mechanism can improve the efficiency of special bond issuance and use [3][4]. - **Local government debt risk resolution advances**: In the first half of the year, large - scale debt replacement was carried out. Refinancing bonds were issued in advance, reaching 2.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. Special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts totaled 1795.938 billion yuan, nearly 90% of the annual 2 - trillion - yuan quota. Many places promoted financial debt resolution and explored emergency fund support. Central authorities emphasized clearing government arrears, and the Ministry of Finance announced six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability to prevent new implicit debts [5]. - **Dynamic optimization of debt risk list management and enterprise transformation**: The government emphasized the dynamic adjustment of high - risk debt area lists and supported the opening of new investment space. Regulatory authorities strengthened the supervision of urban investment bond issuance, guiding infrastructure investment enterprises to exit platforms and transform into industries [6]. - **Optimization and innovation of public investment models**: The State Council issued a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds. The PPP model was innovated, and local governments explored new practices such as the public infrastructure leasing mechanism. Many provinces issued incentive policies for infrastructure REITs [7][8]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relief of short - term solvency pressure**: As of June 29, 2025, local government bonds' new issuance totaled 2558.122 billion yuan, 49.19% of the annual quota, and refinancing bonds totaled 2877.486 billion yuan, with 1795.938 billion yuan used for replacing implicit debts, improving the refinancing environment of infrastructure investment enterprises [10]. - **Expansion of special bond investment areas and increased regional differentiation**: As of June 29, 2025, new special bonds of 2112.705 billion yuan were issued, 48.02% of the annual quota. The issuance progress was faster than the previous year. However, the issuance was more differentiated among regions [11]. - **Tightening of urban investment bond supply**: In the first half of 2025, 4339 urban investment bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 2808.708 billion yuan and a net financing of - 76.36 billion yuan. The net financing decreased year - on - year, and the supply continued to tighten [11]. - **Decline in financing costs**: In the first half of 2025, the weighted average issuance interest rate of national urban investment bonds was 2.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41 percentage points [12]. - **Optimization of financing channels**: The proportion of credit financing of urban investment enterprises increased, while the proportion of bond financing decreased, and the scale and proportion of non - standard financing both declined [13]. - **Convergence of non - standard and bill risks**: In the first half of 2025, there were 16 urban investment non - standard risk events, and the number of new bond - issuing urban investment enterprises entering the continuous overdue list from January to June was 9, showing a significant decrease [14]. - **Acceleration of platform exit and transformation**: Policies promoted the high - quality acceleration of infrastructure investment enterprises' "platform exit" and transformation. However, the new issuance space of urban investment bonds may be further narrowed, and the proportion of borrowing new to repay old is expected to remain high [15]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Conflict between short - term benefits and long - term fundamentals**: Although the "package debt resolution" has achieved phased results, the conflict between short - term policy benefits and long - term "weak" fundamentals is still prominent. A large number of operating debts of infrastructure investment enterprises are difficult to resolve [17][18]. - **Risks in enterprise transformation**: The exit from platforms and industrial transformation of infrastructure investment enterprises will continue to accelerate. Attention should be paid to the credit risks under the phenomena of "shelling" of traditional urban investment, "formalization" and "radicalization" of transformed urban investment, and the possible regional risk resonance [19][20]. - **Evolution of government - enterprise relationship**: The promotion of goals such as platform exit, urban investment transformation, and implicit debt clearance will force the government - enterprise relationship to become clearer. However, it is necessary to dynamically examine and evaluate the evolution of this relationship [21][22].
信用利差周报2025年第19期:上交所试点公司债券续发行业务,信用债收益率全面下行-20250711
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-07-11 09:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Stock Exchange piloted the continuous issuance business of corporate bonds, which enriches the issuance methods of corporate bonds, enhances financing flexibility, and promotes the development of the bond market [3][9]. - In April, the growth rates of major economic indicators slowed down, but the economic recovery still showed some resilience. The central bank net - injected funds, and the capital prices showed mixed trends. The issuance of credit bonds in the primary market heated up, while the trading activity in the secondary market declined, and the yields of most bonds decreased [4][5][6][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspot - On May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice to pilot the continuous issuance of corporate bonds and the expansion of asset - backed securities. The continuous issuance of corporate bonds allows incremental issuance on existing bonds, which has advantages such as improving issuance efficiency and enhancing bond liquidity. Credit rating agencies need to optimize rating methods [3][9][10]. Macroeconomic Data - In April, the growth rates of production, consumption, and investment data slowed down slightly. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.1%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 5.1%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to April was 4.0%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. However, equipment purchase investment played a leading role [4][12]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 960 billion yuan through open - market operations. The overnight and 7 - day pledged repurchase rates decreased by 7bp and 5bp respectively, while the other - term pledged repurchase rates increased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor remained unchanged from the previous week, and the 1 - year Shibor increased by 1bp, with the spread widening to 4bp [5][14]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds heated up, with a scale of 241.311 billion yuan, an increase of 108.134 billion yuan from the previous period. The issuance scales of various bond types and industries increased. The average issuance interest rates of bonds of various terms and grades generally increased, with an increase range of 2bp - 44bp [6][17][18]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the trading volume of cash bonds in the secondary market was 8.408721 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 31.2034 billion yuan from the previous period. The yields of interest - rate bonds fluctuated slightly, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 4bp to 1.72%. The yields of credit bonds decreased comprehensively, with a change range of 1 - 7bp. The credit spreads narrowed comprehensively, with a range of 1bp - 9bp, and the rating spreads showed mixed trends [7][31][34]. Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics - Multiple regulatory policies were introduced in May 2025, including promoting the construction of a scientific and technological finance system, supporting the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds, and providing policy support such as fee reduction and exemption to encourage innovation in the bond market and support scientific and technological innovation [44][46][47]. Bond Market Credit Risk Events - There were multiple credit risk events in the bond market, including bond principal and interest extensions, defaults, etc., involving companies such as Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou R & F Properties Co., Ltd. [43].
2025年5月城投债市场运行分析:发行规模腰斩、净融资持续为负,经开区改革鼓励园区城投上市融资
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-06-16 08:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds was halved, and the net financing continued to be negative. The issuance of innovative varieties such as science - and - technology bonds increased. The reform of economic development zones encourages park urban investment companies to list for financing [6][9][17]. - The yield of urban investment bonds may be more likely to decline. The safety cushion of urban investment bonds is still sufficient, and the credit spread still has room to compress. Investment strategies include allocating high - quality enterprises in strong regions, paying attention to urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits, and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, focus on new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment [6][7][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 5 - month Urban Investment Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Financing and issuance scale**: Affected by tightened financing policies and seasonal factors, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 52.44% month - on - month to 26.3616 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 7.127 billion yuan, remaining negative for three consecutive months. The issuance scale from January to May was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.22%. 21 provinces had net outflows, and the net outflow scale of key provinces and large economic provinces decreased month - on - month [9][11]. - **Review and approval**: The review and approval pass rate of urban investment bonds on the exchange decreased by 7.45 percentage points to 88.01% month - on - month, with 7 bonds terminated for review, mainly issued by AA - level and below entities. The registration pass rate of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased by 5.97 percentage points to 11% month - on - month [10][11]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance of science - and - technology bonds accelerated. In May, 14 labeled urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 1.2 billion yuan. Among them, 9 science - and - technology bonds had a scale of 870 million yuan. Labeled urban investment bonds had a certain cost advantage [17]. - **Issuance term and borrowing - to - repay ratio**: The weighted average issuance term was 4.18 years, an increase of 0.18 years month - on - month. The borrowing - to - repay ratio was 93.24%, and 14 provinces reached 100%. Only Chongqing among the 8 key provinces issued new - type urban investment bonds [20]. - **Issuance interest rate and spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.30%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points month - on - month, and the spread was 77.49BP, a narrowing of 14.44BP month - on - month. The issuance cost in key provinces was higher and the decline was smaller [23]. - **Overseas bonds**: The issuance scale of overseas urban investment bonds decreased by 70.33% month - on - month to 1.2218 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased by 0.31BP to 5.88% [29]. - **Yield and credit spread**: The spot trading scale of urban investment bonds decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The yield of urban investment bonds decreased overall, and the credit spreads of most key provinces narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Analysis - **Rating adjustment**: On May 19, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd. upgraded the bond ratings of "G23 Nanhu 1" and "23 Nanhu Green Bond 01" of Jiaxing Nanhu Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA, with a stable outlook [7]. - **Abnormal transactions**: 46 bonds of 39 urban investment entities had 70 abnormal transactions, with a scale of 252 million yuan. The scale and number of abnormal transactions decreased month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Early Redemption and Maturity Putback - In May, 62 urban investment companies early - redeemed the principal and interest of 73 bonds, with a scale of 1.3396 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 46.34%. The maturity and putback scale of urban investment bonds in the second half of the year is 2.8 trillion yuan [7]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Allocate high - quality enterprises in strong regions based on fundamentals and moderately extend the duration. For medium - and short - term duration allocation, focus on strong urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, pay attention to new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment, especially those with labeled bonds such as science - and - technology and green bonds [6][45]. 3.5 Recent Policies and Hot Events - **Central policies**: In May, the central government introduced policies beneficial to the transformation and development of urban investment enterprises, including supporting the issuance of science - and - technology bonds, promoting urban renewal, reforming national economic development zones, and improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics [6][48]. - **Local policies**: Jilin proposed to accelerate the "withdrawal from the province", Xinjiang set a goal to clear financing platforms in 2025, Jiangsu supervised the replacement of implicit debts with special bonds, and Zhejiang issued special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing [6].
2025年4月城投债市场运行分析:融资审核趋严城投债发行、净融资均降,科创债等创新品种发行升温
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-16 06:26
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main policy tone is still "controlling new debts and resolving existing ones." The issuance and net financing of urban investment bonds have decreased, while the issuance of innovative varieties such as science and technology innovation bonds has increased [4][54][56]. - In the short - term, although the Sino - US tariff game has eased, the bond market will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to allocate high - quality platform targets in strong regions, moderately extend the duration, and also pay attention to strong urban investment in key debt - resolving regions and new entities formed during the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment [6][9][49]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. April 2025 Urban Investment Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Issuance scale and net financing**: The issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 10.34% month - on - month to 554.27 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 75.279 billion yuan for two consecutive months. The approval rates of the exchange and the inter - bank market both decreased month - on - month. 21 provinces had net outflows, and the net outflow scale of economic powerhouses increased significantly [7][10][13]. - **Innovative varieties**: 22 innovative urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 16.78 billion yuan. The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds increased significantly, with 12 bonds issued, totaling 9.02 billion yuan [20]. - **Issuance term**: The weighted average issuance term was 2.76 years, a decrease of 0.87 years month - on - month. The proportion of borrowing new to repay old remained above 90%, and 14 provinces reached 100%. Among the 10 key provinces, 9 had a 100% borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio [23]. - **Issuance interest rate and spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.43%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points month - on - month; the weighted average issuance spread was 91.93BP, a narrowing of 5.43BP month - on - month [26]. - **Overseas bonds**: The issuance scale of overseas urban investment bonds increased by 25.44% month - on - month to 41.177 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 5.57% [31]. - **Yield and credit spread**: The yield of urban investment bonds decreased overall. The credit spreads of key provinces mostly narrowed, while those of non - key provinces mostly widened [35]. 2. Credit Analysis - One urban investment enterprise had its credit rating upgraded. In April 2025, Orient Golden Credit upgraded the rating of Shanghai Northern Enterprise (Group) Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA [43]. - The number, scale, and frequency of abnormal transactions of urban investment bonds decreased. Guizhou had the largest abnormal transaction scale, and "20 Boshui 01" had the largest deviation [43][44]. 3. Maturity and Early Redemption - The maturity and put - option scale of urban investment bonds this year exceeded 3 trillion yuan. 129 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, with a scale of 24.963 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.55% month - on - month [46]. 4. Strategy - Allocate high - quality platform targets in strong regions and moderately extend the duration. For medium - and short - term durations, focus on strong urban investment in regions with significant debt - resolution progress. Also, pay attention to new entities formed during industrial transformation and integration, but set an appropriate duration [6][9][49]. 5. Recent Policy and Hot Event Review - The policy emphasizes resolving existing debts and preventing new ones. The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement has exceeded 60%. The supervision of new hidden debts remains strict, and the support for science and technology innovation bonds has increased [6][50]. - At the local level, many places are accelerating the integration and transformation of state - owned enterprises and standardizing financing management [51].
城投债市场运行2025年一季度回顾与展望:净融创近三年新低,政策收紧倒逼城投“真转型”
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-05-06 11:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds hit a three - year low. The policy tightening forces urban investment companies to make "real transformations". The debt pressure of urban investment companies may be further relieved, and there is still room for compression of credit spreads [4][14]. - With the implementation of the "6 + 4+2" debt - resolution package, the credit risk of urban investment has slightly converged. It is recommended to invest in high - quality enterprises in strong regions and selectively sink the credit quality to seek the spread compression space [6][13]. - In the future, the borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio of urban investment bonds will remain high, and the level of financing entities may continue to move up. Attention should be paid to issues such as local investment and financing needs, debt repayment pressure, asset idleness, and transformation authenticity [7][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q1 2025 Review of Urban Investment Bond Market Operation 3.1.1 Five Characteristics of Urban Investment Bond Market Operation - **Issuance and net financing scale at a three - year low**: The issuance scale was 1.48 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.13%. The net financing was 75.105 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.76%. The net financing of low - level and weak - quality entities declined significantly. Some urban investment companies turned to overseas bond issuance, with the new issuance increasing by 9.49% year - on - year [4]. - **Overall decline in issuance interest rates but monthly increase within the quarter**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.45%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.54 percentage points. The decline of weak - quality entities was less than that of stronger ones [4]. - **Long - term issuance and increased reliance on borrowing new to repay old**: The weighted average term increased by 0.29 years to 3.77 years. The proportion of medium - term notes continued to rise. The broad and narrow borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratios reached 97.65% and 94.66% respectively [5]. - **Trading contraction and spread compression**: The trading scale decreased by nearly 20% year - on - year, and the trading spread was further compressed compared with the end of 2024 [5]. - **Improvement in net financing in key areas**: The net financing in key areas turned positive year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. 17 provinces had a 100% borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio, and Jilin and Chongqing issued project - construction urban investment bonds [5][39]. 3.1.2 Credit Situation - **Convergence of credit risk**: No non - standard defaults occurred in Q1. The number of commercial paper overdue times decreased year - on - year. Two companies in Jiangsu and Guangdong had their credit ratings upgraded. The number and scale of abnormal transactions decreased significantly year - on - year, with frequent abnormal transactions in Shandong and Guizhou [6]. 3.1.3 Issuance Forecast - It is expected that the issuance scale from April to December will be about 4.4 trillion yuan. The borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio will remain high, and the level of financing entities may continue to move up. There may be months with negative net financing, and the total net financing scale is about 0.025 trillion yuan [7]. 3.2 Follow - up Concerns - **Local investment and financing needs**: Although there are marginal improvements in local investment and financing, the pressure on new financing is still high. It is necessary to optimize financing policies and support the opening of new investment spaces [9]. - **Debt repayment pressure**: A large amount of debt still needs to be resolved independently. Hidden - debt - related interest and government arrears should be reasonably included in the replacement scope [10]. - **Asset idleness**: Urban investment companies have a large amount of idle land assets. They should seize the opportunity of special bonds for land acquisition and adopt various ways to revitalize the assets [11]. - **Transformation authenticity**: The next two years are the critical period for transformation. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of transformation and the risk of the withdrawal of debt - resolution policies after exiting the platform [12]. 3.3 Urban Investment Bond Strategy - It is recommended to invest in high - quality enterprises in strong regions based on fundamentals to obtain coupon income. Selectively sink the credit quality, such as weak urban investment in strong regions and strong urban investment in weak regions, to seek the spread compression space brought by debt - resolution results [13].
基础设施投融资行业2025年一季度政策回顾及展望:攻守兼备,动态平衡
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-04-27 08:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "base investment") industry policies continue the overall idea of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" of the "package debt - resolution" policy in 2024, and pay more attention to the balance between debt resolution and development [3][5]. - The "package debt - resolution" policy has achieved phased results, with many regions achieving zero implicit debts. The industry adheres to resolving debts while developing and vice versa, strengthens special - bond support, and guides the standardized development of government investment funds to assist the transformation of base - investment enterprises [5][7][8]. - Under the influence of policies, the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved, the financing channels are continuously adjusted, the marginal liquidity is improved, and the bond financing cost is reduced. However, the non - standard debt situation in some provinces still needs attention [14]. - In 2025, the base - investment industry policies are expected to continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts", and the industry's debt risk is generally controllable. New investment space may be opened, but issues such as the tightening of financing channels, non - standard debt replacement progress, and changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation need to be concerned [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **Policy Continuity and New Requirements**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies continue the "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" idea of 2024, and the 2025 national government work report puts forward new requirements such as dynamically adjusting the list of high - risk debt regions and opening up new investment space [3][5]. - **Phased Results of Debt Resolution**: In the first quarter of 2025, many regions announced that they had achieved zero implicit debts in 2024, involving 10 provinces and 23 cities. For example, Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province used 11.881 billion yuan of special bonds to replace implicit debts and completed the task of zero implicit debts [5]. - **Debt Resolution in Development**: The 2025 national government work report proposes to dynamically adjust the list of high - risk debt regions. Some regions may be planning to withdraw from the list of key provinces. The central bank also guides the resolution of financial debt risks of financing platforms and supports their market - oriented transformation [7]. - **Support for Enterprise Transformation**: Special bonds are strengthened to support infrastructure construction, rural revitalization, and consumption - related fields. The State Council General Office issues a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange revises relevant rules to guide the transformation of base - investment enterprises [8][9][11]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relieved Short - term Debt - Repayment Pressure**: Since November 2024, the government has increased the local government debt limit to replace existing implicit debts. In the first quarter of 2025, 1.34 trillion yuan of special bonds were issued for this purpose, exceeding half of the annual quota, and the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved [14][15]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels**: In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of base - investment bonds decreased compared with the same period last year. The non - standard debt scale decreased, and the proportion of bank loans in the debt of base - investment enterprises may increase [16]. - **Improved Liquidity and Reduced Financing Cost**: The liquidity of base - investment enterprises has been continuously improved, and the weighted average issuance interest rate of base - investment bonds in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 11BP compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. The financing cost of base - investment enterprises in key provinces has decreased significantly [17]. - **Converged Non - standard and Bill Public Opinions**: The negative public opinions of base - investment non - standard risks have converged. In the first quarter of 2025, the total number of non - standard risk events decreased by about 41% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 and about 51% compared with the first quarter of 2024. However, the non - standard risk situation in some regions still needs attention [18]. - **Released Liquidity by Special Bonds**: Special bonds support project investment and land asset recovery. In the first quarter of 2025, the new quota of government special bonds for infrastructure construction increased significantly, and some special bonds were used for land reserve projects, which helped base - investment enterprises dispose of idle and inefficient land assets and release liquidity [19][20]. - **Enterprise Transformation and High - quality Development**: Policy guidance promotes the transformation and high - quality development of base - investment enterprises. The proportion of market - oriented entities among bond - issuing enterprises has increased, and the transformation is expected to accelerate [21][22]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Controllable Debt Risk**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies will continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts". The debt risk of the industry is generally controllable, but the implementation of financial debt - resolution policies and the adjustment of financing channels need to be concerned [23][25]. - **New Investment Space and Enterprise Transformation**: The current debt - resolution work emphasizes the balance between debt resolution and development. New investment space may be opened, and base - investment enterprises are expected to focus on key investment fields and industrial investment. The process of enterprises withdrawing from the platform and industrial transformation is expected to accelerate [25]. - **Challenges and Concerns**: The fundamental improvement of base - investment enterprises is still under pressure, and the progress of non - standard debt replacement is uncertain, which may affect the public opinion trend. The changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation also need continuous attention [25][33][34].