地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 2025 年 5 月 1 9 日—5 月 23 日 总第 563 期 信用利差周报 【信用利差周报2025年第16期】政治局会 议强调四稳，再提创新推出债市"科技版" 释放哪些信号? 2025-4-29 【信用利差周报2025年第15期】财政部启 动超长期特别国债发行，交易商协会发布 估值指引优化估值生态 2025-4-22 2025 年第 19 期 债券市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 侯天成 tchhou@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差周报2025年第18期】货币政策 报告强调优化债市结构与制度安排，债券 收益率走势分化 2025-5-20 【信用利差周报2025年第17期】新规落地 后科创债密集发行，中美关税大幅互降 2025-5-13 【信用利差周报2025年第14期】美债遭遇 大规模抛售，四部门发文推动债券融资支 持体育产业 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds was halved, and the net financing continued to be negative. The issuance of innovative varieties such as science - and - technology bonds increased. The reform of economic development zones encourages park urban investment companies to list for financing [6][9][17]. - The yield of urban investment bonds may be more likely to decline. The safety cushion of urban investment bonds is still sufficient, and the credit spread still has room to compress. Investment strategies include allocating high - quality enterprises in strong regions, paying attention to urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits, and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, focus on new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment [6][7][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 5 - month Urban Investment Bond Market Operation Characteristics - **Financing and issuance scale**: Affected by tightened financing policies and seasonal factors, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased by 52.44% month - on - month to 26.3616 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 7.127 billion yuan, remaining negative for three consecutive months. The issuance scale from January to May was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.22%. 21 provinces had net outflows, and the net outflow scale of key provinces and large economic provinces decreased month - on - month [9][11]. - **Review and approval**: The review and approval pass rate of urban investment bonds on the exchange decreased by 7.45 percentage points to 88.01% month - on - month, with 7 bonds terminated for review, mainly issued by AA - level and below entities. The registration pass rate of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors increased by 5.97 percentage points to 11% month - on - month [10][11]. - **Innovative varieties**: The issuance of science - and - technology bonds accelerated. In May, 14 labeled urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 1.2 billion yuan. Among them, 9 science - and - technology bonds had a scale of 870 million yuan. Labeled urban investment bonds had a certain cost advantage [17]. - **Issuance term and borrowing - to - repay ratio**: The weighted average issuance term was 4.18 years, an increase of 0.18 years month - on - month. The borrowing - to - repay ratio was 93.24%, and 14 provinces reached 100%. Only Chongqing among the 8 key provinces issued new - type urban investment bonds [20]. - **Issuance interest rate and spread**: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.30%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points month - on - month, and the spread was 77.49BP, a narrowing of 14.44BP month - on - month. The issuance cost in key provinces was higher and the decline was smaller [23]. - **Overseas bonds**: The issuance scale of overseas urban investment bonds decreased by 70.33% month - on - month to 1.2218 billion yuan, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased by 0.31BP to 5.88% [29]. - **Yield and credit spread**: The spot trading scale of urban investment bonds decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The yield of urban investment bonds decreased overall, and the credit spreads of most key provinces narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Analysis - **Rating adjustment**: On May 19, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., Ltd. upgraded the bond ratings of "G23 Nanhu 1" and "23 Nanhu Green Bond 01" of Jiaxing Nanhu Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA, with a stable outlook [7]. - **Abnormal transactions**: 46 bonds of 39 urban investment entities had 70 abnormal transactions, with a scale of 252 million yuan. The scale and number of abnormal transactions decreased month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Early Redemption and Maturity Putback - In May, 62 urban investment companies early - redeemed the principal and interest of 73 bonds, with a scale of 1.3396 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 46.34%. The maturity and putback scale of urban investment bonds in the second half of the year is 2.8 trillion yuan [7]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Allocate high - quality enterprises in strong regions based on fundamentals and moderately extend the duration. For medium - and short - term duration allocation, focus on strong urban investment companies in key provinces with debt resolution benefits and weak - qualified urban investment companies in strong regions. Also, pay attention to new bond - issuing entities in the industrial transformation and integration of urban investment, especially those with labeled bonds such as science - and - technology and green bonds [6][45]. 3.5 Recent Policies and Hot Events - **Central policies**: In May, the central government introduced policies beneficial to the transformation and development of urban investment enterprises, including supporting the issuance of science - and - technology bonds, promoting urban renewal, reforming national economic development zones, and improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics [6][48]. - **Local policies**: Jilin proposed to accelerate the "withdrawal from the province", Xinjiang set a goal to clear financing platforms in 2025, Jiangsu supervised the replacement of implicit debts with special bonds, and Zhejiang issued special bonds for purchasing existing commercial housing [6].

监测月报 2025 年 4 月 1 日—4 月 3 0 日 2025 年第 4 期 城投市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 梁蕴兮 yxliang@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 执行院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【城投债市场运行 2024 年回顾与 2025 年展 望】重点省份净融出、退名单序幕将拉 开，关注化债与转型加速下的博弈与分化， 2025-01 【2024 年前三季度城投市场运行回顾与展 望】一揽子化债一周年：当前城投债运行 特点、风险关注及展望 【2024年8月城投债市场运行分析】净融转 负、行情小幅回调，仍可采取结构性下沉 策略 【2024年7月城投债市场运行分析】净融资 回升重点区域改善明显，化债"充值信仰" 投资偏好再下沉 【2024 年上半年城投市场运行回顾与展望】 化债持续加码、城投债净融骤降九成，关 注投资收缩效应与转型风险 【2024年5月城投行业运行分析】近九成发 债省份借新还旧比例 100%，高风险地区持 续推进金融化债 【2024年4月城投行业运行分析】城投债净 融资转负信用利差继续收窄，低利率环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "base investment") industry policies continue the overall idea of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" of the "package debt - resolution" policy in 2024, and pay more attention to the balance between debt resolution and development [3][5]. - The "package debt - resolution" policy has achieved phased results, with many regions achieving zero implicit debts. The industry adheres to resolving debts while developing and vice versa, strengthens special - bond support, and guides the standardized development of government investment funds to assist the transformation of base - investment enterprises [5][7][8]. - Under the influence of policies, the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved, the financing channels are continuously adjusted, the marginal liquidity is improved, and the bond financing cost is reduced. However, the non - standard debt situation in some provinces still needs attention [14]. - In 2025, the base - investment industry policies are expected to continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts", and the industry's debt risk is generally controllable. New investment space may be opened, but issues such as the tightening of financing channels, non - standard debt replacement progress, and changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation need to be concerned [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **Policy Continuity and New Requirements**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies continue the "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" idea of 2024, and the 2025 national government work report puts forward new requirements such as dynamically adjusting the list of high - risk debt regions and opening up new investment space [3][5]. - **Phased Results of Debt Resolution**: In the first quarter of 2025, many regions announced that they had achieved zero implicit debts in 2024, involving 10 provinces and 23 cities. For example, Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province used 11.881 billion yuan of special bonds to replace implicit debts and completed the task of zero implicit debts [5]. - **Debt Resolution in Development**: The 2025 national government work report proposes to dynamically adjust the list of high - risk debt regions. Some regions may be planning to withdraw from the list of key provinces. The central bank also guides the resolution of financial debt risks of financing platforms and supports their market - oriented transformation [7]. - **Support for Enterprise Transformation**: Special bonds are strengthened to support infrastructure construction, rural revitalization, and consumption - related fields. The State Council General Office issues a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange revises relevant rules to guide the transformation of base - investment enterprises [8][9][11]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relieved Short - term Debt - Repayment Pressure**: Since November 2024, the government has increased the local government debt limit to replace existing implicit debts. In the first quarter of 2025, 1.34 trillion yuan of special bonds were issued for this purpose, exceeding half of the annual quota, and the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved [14][15]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels**: In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of base - investment bonds decreased compared with the same period last year. The non - standard debt scale decreased, and the proportion of bank loans in the debt of base - investment enterprises may increase [16]. - **Improved Liquidity and Reduced Financing Cost**: The liquidity of base - investment enterprises has been continuously improved, and the weighted average issuance interest rate of base - investment bonds in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 11BP compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. The financing cost of base - investment enterprises in key provinces has decreased significantly [17]. - **Converged Non - standard and Bill Public Opinions**: The negative public opinions of base - investment non - standard risks have converged. In the first quarter of 2025, the total number of non - standard risk events decreased by about 41% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 and about 51% compared with the first quarter of 2024. However, the non - standard risk situation in some regions still needs attention [18]. - **Released Liquidity by Special Bonds**: Special bonds support project investment and land asset recovery. In the first quarter of 2025, the new quota of government special bonds for infrastructure construction increased significantly, and some special bonds were used for land reserve projects, which helped base - investment enterprises dispose of idle and inefficient land assets and release liquidity [19][20]. - **Enterprise Transformation and High - quality Development**: Policy guidance promotes the transformation and high - quality development of base - investment enterprises. The proportion of market - oriented entities among bond - issuing enterprises has increased, and the transformation is expected to accelerate [21][22]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Controllable Debt Risk**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies will continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts". The debt risk of the industry is generally controllable, but the implementation of financial debt - resolution policies and the adjustment of financing channels need to be concerned [23][25]. - **New Investment Space and Enterprise Transformation**: The current debt - resolution work emphasizes the balance between debt resolution and development. New investment space may be opened, and base - investment enterprises are expected to focus on key investment fields and industrial investment. The process of enterprises withdrawing from the platform and industrial transformation is expected to accelerate [25]. - **Challenges and Concerns**: The fundamental improvement of base - investment enterprises is still under pressure, and the progress of non - standard debt replacement is uncertain, which may affect the public opinion trend. The changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation also need continuous attention [25][33][34].