城投债季度报告 化存控增持续进行时 非标风险边际收敛 优质城投债持续 稀缺 ——2025 年上半年城投债市场追踪及市场关注 作者 政府公共评级部 夏 敏 mxia@ccxi.com.cn 张泽宇 zyzhang.zeyu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际基础设施投融资行业 化存控增持续进行时 非标风险边际收敛 优质城投债持续稀 缺 ——2025 年上半年城投债市场追踪及市场关注 2 摘 要 ◼ 全国城投债发行概况及特征 ➢ 第一、在政策延续"控增化存"主基调不变的背景下，城投债发行政策仍处于严监管态 势之下，2025 年上半年发行总额和净融资额同比下降，存量城投债供给持续收紧。在债 务化解持续推进，监管政策趋紧的背景下，2025 年上半年全国城投债共发行 4,339 只， 发行总额为 28,087.08 亿元，净融资为-763.60 亿元，发行总额同比下降 11.55%，净融资 同比下降 149.16%，上半年净融资额由正转负，城投债供给持续收紧。从月度发行情况 来看，2025 年 4 月、5 月城投债发行规模环比大幅下降，叠加债务到期规模较大，净融 资缺口规模有所扩大；6 月城投债发行规模有所回升，净融资 ...

随着城投公司陆续公布2024年经营数据，市场化转型及化债成效亦有所体现。 中诚信国际研报显示，随着市场化转型的推进，2024年城投公司经营活动现金流有所改善。2024年年 末，城投公司经营活动现金流入23.59万亿元，同比增长1.06%；经营活动现金流净额0.81万亿元，经营 活动现金流净额五年来首次回正。 多位城投公司负责人向《中国经营报》记者表示，经营活动现金流已经成为城投市场化转型的重要"试 金石"，其反映了城投公司是否真正盘活现有资产，拓展新的产业。与此同时，城投在谋求产业转型的 同时，要积极探索长期股权投资，以期强化投资的全周期生命管理能力。 中经记者 石健 北京报道 挖掘现有资源＋拓展潜力产业 中诚信国际研报显示，2024年城投公司经营活动现金流有所改善。2024年年末，城投公司经营活动现金 流入23.59万亿元，同比增长1.06%；经营活动现金流净额0.81万亿元，经营活动现金流净额五年来首次 回正。 转型与化债并行之下，一方面，不少城投公司提出向产投类公司转型，另一方面抓现金流意识也明显提 升。记者梳理发现，"强化企业现金流管理、拓展经营性收入来源渠道、提升资产资金使用效率和收益 水平"已经成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period will be a new turning point for the urban investment industry. Urban investment enterprises need to seize development opportunities, use relevant policies, and address long - standing issues such as low profitability, poor asset quality, high debt pressure, and heavy reliance on local government resources [3][4]. - In 2024, under the "package debt resolution" policy, urban investment enterprises showed some positive changes, but the substantial improvement of the overall fundamentals still needs further observation. Key provinces achieved certain debt - resolution results, but their profitability, investment, and financing capabilities were weaker than other regions, and the debt - repayment pressure was prominent [2][15]. - Urban investment enterprises in the process of transformation need to pay attention to issues such as insufficient profitability in the initial stage, low asset quality, and high debt pressure, and promote the smooth transition between old and new businesses [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asset Side - The expansion speed of urban investment enterprises was lower than the growth rate of social financing, and assets were concentrated towards the top. The asset growth rate of urban investment enterprises in key provinces slowed down significantly. By the end of 2024, the total asset scale of urban investment enterprises reached 162.70 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.31%, lower than the social financing growth rate of 8% in 2024 [8][17]. - The liquidity of urban investment assets weakened. The scale of monetary funds decreased significantly, and the scale and proportion of accounts receivable increased. By the end of 2024, the total scale of monetary funds of urban investment enterprises was 7.59 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.65% [24]. - Due to investment constraints, infrastructure business was restricted, and the growth rate of inventory slowed down. The scale of construction - in - progress projects of urban investment enterprises in key provinces decreased. In 2024, the inventory growth rate of urban investment enterprises was only 3.24%, a significant decrease of 5.46 percentage points [30][33]. Liability Side - The growth rate of debt scale slowed down. The asset - liability ratio and the scale of interest - bearing debt of urban investment enterprises in key provinces decreased for the first time. By the end of 2024, the total liability scale of urban investment enterprises reached 101.13 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.33%, and the growth rate decreased by 5.19 percentage points compared with 2023 [38][40]. - The financing cost of urban investment enterprises increased slightly but was still in a downward channel. The cost in key provinces decreased more significantly but was still relatively high. In 2024, the median financing cost of urban investment enterprises was 5.16%, a slight increase of 9BP compared with 2023 [46]. - The scale and proportion of non - standard financing of urban investment enterprises "double - dropped", and the debt structure of urban investment enterprises in key provinces improved significantly. In 2024, the proportion of non - standard financing of urban investment enterprises dropped to 8.57%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [49]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities turned positive for the first time in five years, and nearly 80% of urban investment enterprises in key provinces had positive cash flow net. In 2024, the net cash flow from operating activities of urban investment enterprises was 0.81 trillion yuan, turning positive for the first time in five years [12][53]. - The cash outflow from investment activities slowed down. Urban investment in key provinces was more restricted, but long - term equity investment improved. In 2024, the cash outflow from investment activities of urban investment enterprises was 8.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.49% [12][56]. - The cash inflow from financing activities was under pressure, and the net amount decreased. Urban investment financing in key provinces was more restricted. In 2024, the cash inflow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises was 29.98 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.27%, and the growth rate decreased significantly by 6.53 percentage points [13][61]. Debt - Repayment Ability - The debt - repayment ability of urban investment enterprises continued to decline, and urban investment enterprises in key provinces faced greater debt - repayment pressure. In 2024, the current ratio, the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt, and the EBITDA interest coverage ratio of all urban investment enterprises were 2.41, 0.30, and 2.72 respectively [65]. - The debt - repayment ability of entities facing the maturity or put - back of urban investment bonds in 2025 tended to weaken. From May to December 2025, the entities facing the maturity or put - back of urban investment bonds were mainly AAA - rated and municipal - level. The maturity pressure in key provinces such as Heilongjiang and Gansu was relatively large [69].

证券研究报告 固收 供求支撑下的波段与品种增厚—— 2025 年中期信用债展望 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 06 日│中国内地 中期策略 报告核心观点 高等级二永债可随利率波段交易，但空间较窄，对交易要求较高，负债端稳 定机构逢调整增配。1-3 年优质城农商行信用风险可控，可适当下沉挖掘， 增厚票息。TLAC 非资本工具关注扩容及与二级资本债比价机会。券商、保 险债交易活跃度低，以逢高配置为主。私募永续债方面，可关注 2 年以内主 流城投、中短久期地产国企及优质电力、交运、公用事业等品种配置机会。 消金小微类 ABS 放量，震荡市可品种挖掘。公募 Reits 兼顾一二级机会， 一级关注如 IDC、文旅等新资产上市和扩募机会，二级可逢市场调整增配基 本面稳健项目。 展望下半年，利率或延续震荡市格局，信用债胜在供需关系略好，存款搬家 带来非银增量需求，但理财整改、债基负债端不稳定，信用债中短端需求好 于长端。供给方面，城投严监管下，仍以央国企产业、国股行二永债为主， 关注科创债扩容、城投转型等带来的机会。化债下信用风险可控+实体融资 缓慢修复，信用利差仍有下行机会，但空间或不大且波动较多。建议继续以 震荡思路 ...

中经记者 石健 北京报道 655家区县城投公司中，总资产达30.26万亿元、年营收合计1.77万亿元……近日，城投网和江苏现代资 产投资管理顾问有限公司（以下简称"现代咨询"）联合发布了2024年区县城投经营数据。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，随着债务化解和城投平台转型齐头并进，区县级城投公司经营水平和治理 能力进一步提升。尤其是在头部区县城投公司中，已经有61家城投公司总资产超过千亿元。但就营收水 平看，655家区县城投营业收入平均值为27.04亿元，75%的城投公司不及平均值。 从特色化挖掘动能 丁伯康认为，从今年所发布的区县城投公司经营数据来看，当前城投转型正处于"风险突围"与"动能重 塑"的关键阶段。尤其是化解存量债务仍然是目前区县城投突破发展困局的攻坚点。 在多位区县城投负责人看来，对于未来区县城投发展，化解债务是前提，差异化发展是方向，市场化转 型是手段，融资能力提升是支撑，区县城投正从"风险突围"向"动能重塑"转变。 近一成区县城投总资产过千亿元 趋势数据显示，纳入统计的区县级城投公司共有655家。截至2024年年底，总资产规模合计总量为30.26 万亿元，年营业收入合计为1.77万亿元。570家 ...

儿史干阿登，信用风险走彻父丁历史太郎。但外芾仪细州现仅 转型压力下，尾部风险实际提升。中国作为全球最大工业国, 依赖外需的产业面临冲击，而城投转型的推进加剧了尾部主体 的信用风险。当前市场定价与周期不对称,相比其他新兴市场 更是性价比严重不足,尾部风险被低估。 弘则固收 叶青 ... 从CDS看全球债务周期 之食 | < 土 = YTD 1年 3年 5年 All ll 其他新兴市场 -- 中国 300 350 275 250 300 225 250 200 175 200 150 150 100 50 2014-07 2015-07 2016-07 2017-07 2018-07 2019-07 2020-07 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 2025-01 - 2024 2016 2011 to, 同意看, all 弘则固收叶青发表研报，中国市场信用风险、利差依次触碰了性价比、政策与债务周期三重历史底部： 性价比失衡引发机构转向利率债，市场调整后利差/LPR利差再未回到历史低位；化债政策进入尾声， 城投转型成为焦点，信用风险平抑力量减弱；全球债务危机下，中国信用定价不足，尾部风险被低估。 需 ...

"此次修订的新规要求非常细致，我们也正在逐一核查，对于不符合的数据通过业务进行调整。"近期， 一家准备发行公司债的东部省份城投公司负责人向《中国经营报》记者表示。 上交所近期修订发布《上海证券交易所公司债券发行上市审核规则适用指引第3号——审核重点关注事 项（2025年修订）》（以下简称"3号指引"），对地方化债、城投转型过程中出现的新情况新问题给出 了系统性的政策回应。 记者注意到，与2023年版本相比，条款数量从56条扩充至66条，其中修订并新增多项涉及城投发债的规 定，如首次明文规定需披露"335"（非经营性资产（城建类资产）占总资产比重不超过30%；非经营性 收入（城建类收入）占总收入比重不超过30%；财政补贴占净利润比重不得超过50%）相关指标，要求 充分披露发债企业新增贸易业务情况、多元化经营情况，纳入了更多财务指标类评估标准，要求全部城 建类企业发债均应评估自身经营和偿债能力等。 对此多位城投行业人士表示，此次3号指引的发布可以说是全方位的，不仅涉及经营指标的规范及披 露，还涉及到如贸易业务、互保问题等城投业务的规范化。随着城投公司按照3号指引整改，将进一步 推动行业"真转型"。 城投债发行更审 ...