"一揽子化债"背景下济宁市 债务化解及城投转型进展 政府公共评级二部 作者：刘艳美 ymliu@ccxi.com.cn 刘绍思 shsliu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际基础设施投融资行业 1 / 17 中诚信国际基础设施投融资行业 城"一揽子化债"背景下济宁市债务化解及 城投转型进展 摘要 ◼ 区域概况 ◼ 化债进展 ◼ 城投转型 2 / 17 ➢ 济宁市资源禀赋突出，产业结构持续优化，经济发展位居山东省中上游， 但区县经济发展分化明显。 ➢ 济宁市财政实力稳步提升，财政收入质量较好，但财政自给能力较为一般， 土地财政依赖度较高，且区县财政发展失衡较为突出。 ➢ 济宁市政府法定债务风险较为可控，但城投企业有息债务突出，两者叠加 后的债务率超 300%，并高度集中于经济强区县，且区县类城投企业曾出现 过票据逾期等负面舆情，区县债务风险值得关注。 ➢ 济宁市多元举措推进债务化解，持续健全完善政府债务管理机制，强化"借、 用、管、还"闭环式全流程管理。 ➢ 2024 年以来济宁市城投债务增速有所放缓，债务结构有所优化，融资成本 有所下降，但融资成本仍较高且短期偿债压力仍存。 ➢ 济宁市城投债发行期限趋于长期 ...

2026：信用债投资的风险边界与机会展望 20251225 摘要 2025 年信用债市场整体稳定，票息收益稳健，3 月配置窗口期贡献显著。 中短端信用品种表现稳健，长端信用债面临挑战，长期限信用利差中枢 上移，长久期交易难度增加。信用债 ETF 和科创债 ETF 扩容带来抢券行 情。 展望 2026 年，震荡市中票息价值突出，需关注城投转型、金融和产业 债风险事件，以及南向通扩展带来的境外投资机会。政策变化对地方平 台隐性债务化解进度及机构行为对不同期限和品种需求的影响值得重视。 当前低利率环境下，需警惕尾部风险，关注基本面变化对估值波动和流 动性丧失的影响。定价层面反映不充分，但基于基本面的研究至关重要。 策略研究应重点关注基本面变化及其对主体定价和风险评估的影响。 城投转型加速，对地方政府建设产生重要影响。未来一年多需密切关注 政策指引，确保顺利完成隐性债务化解任务。理财规模扩大增加短端信 用品种需求，基金规模下降减少中长端品种配置，机构行为变化显著影 响定价和需求结构。 城投逐渐去平台化，不再承担地方举债职能，但仍是地方政府实施运作 的重要工具，未来 5-10 年内保持其特殊性。东部沿海地区、省会城市 ...

化债下半程：成效、动向与展望 证券研究报告 固收 核心观点 随着 2027 年 6 月这一化债关键时点逐渐趋近，市场再度关注起城投债信用 风险。当前化债到达什么程度？后续应关注哪些方面？化债思路预计有何转 变？如何看待 2027 年 6 月后的城投平台？弱区域城投平台是否存在违约的 可能性？针对以上问题，我们梳理总结，并结合地方调研情况，推演城投可 能的趋势与分化路径。 当前化债进度几何？从数据复盘化债成果 从隐债清退、平台名单退出、经营性债务化解、重点省份退出、成本压降、 结构优化及制度建设等多维度看，化债取得明显进展。但地方债务压力依然 较重：一是债务总规模仍高，城投债务与地方债此消彼长，地方全口径债务 总规模已超 120 万亿元。二是多数省份债务率仍在上升。此外，今年化债 资源更加丰富，2 万亿置换隐债专项债已落地，仍有特殊新增专项债、特殊 再融资债在发行进程。但同时，化债也对项目投资产生挤占效应。截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，今年用于项目投资的新增专项债仅占 58%，相比去年（78%） 下滑，贵州、云南等地新增专项债中用于非项目投资比例超 70%。 化债下半程有何新动向？ 我们总结三大趋势：一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 Central Politburo Meeting and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of loose fiscal and monetary policies and the resolution of key issues such as local government debt and arrears to enterprises [2][8][9] - In November 2025, the issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution accelerated, with the 500 - billion - yuan local debt balance quota concentratedly implemented. The progress of implicit debt clearance, platform withdrawal, and exit from key provinces continued [3][13] - The net financing of urban investment bonds remained under pressure, and the resolution of operating debts, including non - standard debts, continued. The integration and transformation of urban investment platforms were active, and the number of new issuers of industrial bonds increased [4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Major Policy Updates on Debt Resolution and Urban Investment Transformation - The 2025 Central Politburo Meeting emphasized the continuation of loose fiscal and monetary policies and the resolution of arrears to enterprises [2][8] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference focused on resolving local government debt risks, especially the "operating debt risks of financing platforms", and optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods [2][9][10] 3.2. Debt Resolution Progress Tracking 3.2.1. Implicit Debt Resolution Progress - **Local Government Bond Replacement**: In November, the issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution accelerated. The annual quota of special bonds for replacing implicit debts was almost completed, with only 1.1 billion yuan remaining in Henan. Special refinancing bonds resumed issuance, and the 500 - billion - yuan local debt balance quota was concentratedly implemented. The total annual issuance of local government bonds for debt resolution reached 3.58 trillion yuan by November 30, 2025 [3][13][14] - **Implicit Debt Clearance**: As of the end of November 2025, Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai, 30 prefecture - level cities, and 146 districts and counties had announced the completion of implicit debt clearance [3][24] - **Platform Withdrawal and Exit from Key Provinces**: Nationally, as of the end of September 2025, the number of financing platforms decreased by 71% compared to March 2023. In November 2025, 31 entities announced "no longer undertaking government financing functions", and 32 entities declared themselves market - oriented operating entities. Inner Mongolia confirmed its exit from key provinces, and Ningxia met the exit conditions [3][30][31] 3.2.2. Operating Debt Resolution - **Bonds**: In November, the net financing of urban investment bonds remained under pressure, with the proportion of debt for borrowing new to repay old reaching 93%, and the average issuance interest rate slightly dropping to 2.34% [4] - **Non - standard Debt Resolution**: In November, 3 cases of non - standard debt resolution were monitored, all through bank loan replacement. The actual progress of bank loan replacement of non - standard debts was relatively slow [4][48][49] - **Unified Borrowing and Repayment**: In November, only 1 "unified borrowing and repayment" bond was issued, with a limited number of overall implementation cases [54] 3.2.3. Arrears to Enterprises - In November, many places continued to promote the resolution of arrears to enterprises and announced relevant progress [5][59] 3.3. Tracking of Urban Investment Platform Integration and Transformation 3.3.1. Overview of Urban Investment Platform Integration - In November, 39 urban investment platform integration events were monitored, with Jiangsu being the most active region. The integration mainly included three directions: establishing new industrial investment platforms through asset integration, promoting professional integration of business segments, and integrating regional resources to create high - credit - rating entities [6][61] 3.3.2. Overview of New Issuers of Industrial Bonds - In November, the number of new issuers of industrial bonds increased significantly, with 80 new issuers, of which 49 were urban - investment - like industrial entities, accounting for 61%. The industries were concentrated in social services, non - bank finance, and real estate [6][76][78]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 城投债，化债政策尾声的守与变 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之五 [Table_Summary] ►2025，低波与长短分化的存量时代 2025 年新增化债政策明显减少，主要是将此前的化债政策进一步落实落 细，围绕退重点省份及退平台、"化存遏增"继续发力。城投发债政策 进一步收紧，城投债净融资创历史新低，2025 年 1-11 月仅为 4 亿元。从 内部结构看，低层级和中低等级主体净偿还体量较大。分区域看，江 苏、湖南、重庆净偿还规模在 300 亿元以上。在此背景下，城投债发行 利率震荡下行，7 月创历史新低。除贵州外，其余省份城投债平均发行利 率 2%-2.8%，大部分省份较年初下降。 从二级市场看，2025年城投债收益率震荡，走势基本跟随债市。与2024 年城投债收益率趋势下行行情明显不同，2025 年城投债收益率走势呈现 "M"型，信用利差震荡收窄。因而 2025 年也成为城投债静态收益率最低 和波动最窄的一年，横向比较来看，中短端波动收窄明显，城投债期限 ...

据记者不完全统计，自2025年初至11月1日，地方国资共参与了28起上市公司的控制权收购，其中已完 成的交易16起，仍在进行中的交易12起。在28笔交易中，江苏、安徽、浙江、广东、湖北五省最为活 跃，其中安徽以6起交易、54.68亿元的规模紧追江苏，正在形成从省会合肥到马鞍山、黄山等多市开花 的"安徽模式"。 ● 本报记者 张鹏飞 再以上海国资收购康华生物为例，这笔交易是对要求设立100亿元生物医药产业并购基金的《上海市支 持上市公司并购重组行动方案（2025—2027年）》的直接响应，同时也释放出未来上海国资将持续加码 生物医药领域的信号。 伴随着中央政策、地方细则、资本通道、企业架构、风控机制并进，城投公司正由"土地整理者"加速蜕 变为"产业投资人"，在新能源电池、半导体材料、创新药等赛道上频频出手，一条从政府引导、城投领 投、社会资本跟投到产业集群落地的全新路径日渐清晰。此外，借助资本市场严格的信披和监管要求， 城投公司也被倒逼完善公司治理、强化市场化运营理念，逐步实现从"融资平台"向"产业运营商"的转 型。 城投入主 上市公司实力增强 在今年的城投并购中，半导体成为炙手可热的领域。今年以来共有28家上 ...

据记者不完全统计，自2025年初至11月1日，地方国资共参与了28起上市公司的控制权收购，其中已完 成的交易16起，仍在进行中的交易12起。在28笔交易中，江苏、安徽、浙江、广东、湖北五省最为活 跃，其中安徽以6起交易、54.68亿元的规模紧追江苏，正在形成从省会合肥到马鞍山、黄山等多市开花 的"安徽模式"。 ● 本报记者张鹏飞 对地方政府而言，上市公司把研发、制造、供应链一并迁入当地，瞬间补齐产业短板。上游原材料企业 获得稳定订单，下游物流、检测、包装等配套环节同步聚集，短短一两年便可形成"引来一个、带来一 串"的集群效应。此外，地方通过控股平台分享企业利润、股票增值及税收增量，实现"化风险、育产 业、增税源"的三级跳。 以马鞍山国资为例，通过江东产投并购蓝黛科技（002765），使得蓝黛科技更加专注于新能源汽车传动 系统、触控显示以及机器人关节减速机等研发，这与马鞍山国资在电子信息、汽车交通等科技产业的产 业布局相协同。 再以上海国资收购康华生物（300841）为例，这笔交易是对要求设立100亿元生物医药产业并购基金的 《上海市支持上市公司并购重组行动方案(2025—2027年)》的直接响应，同时也释放出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the announcements of "zeroing out" implicit debts in various regions have become more frequent, and the pace of urban investment platforms exiting the list has significantly accelerated. As of October 30, 2025, 70 regions across the country have officially announced the achievement of implicit debt zeroing out, with district - and county - level units being the main battlefield for debt resolution [1][7]. - The number of financing platforms has decreased by over 70%. Jiangsu Province has the highest number of exits, mainly district - and county - level non - bond - issuing platforms. The next stage of the "exit list" work may focus on higher - level bond - issuing entities [1][12]. - After exiting the list, the credit evaluation of urban investment platforms has entered a new stage of significant differentiation. In the short term, liquidity is crucial; in the medium term, the focus is on hematopoietic ability; in the long term, the key lies in functional positioning [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "One - Package Debt Resolution" Anniversary with Remarkable Achievements and Many Regions Announcing Zero Implicit Debts - Since the introduction of the "one - package debt resolution plan" in November 2024, the local debt resolution work has advanced for nearly a year. By October 30, 2025, 70 regions announced zero implicit debts, including 11 prefecture - level and 59 district - and county - level units [1][7]. - Other regions have also disclosed clear goals for zeroing out implicit debts, such as Shandong aiming for zero implicit debts by the end of 2028 and Shaoxing, Zhejiang achieving zero implicit debts by the end of 2025 [7]. 3.2 Over 70% Reduction in the Number of Financing Platforms and Their Characteristics 3.2.1 Jiangsu Province Has the Most Announced Exit - List Entities, Mainly District - and County - Level Non - Bond - Issuing Entities - As of September 2025, the number of national financing platforms and the scale of outstanding operating financial debts decreased by 71% and 62% respectively compared to March 2023. Among the 447 "exit - list" urban investment entities officially disclosed since 2022, Jiangsu accounted for nearly 70%, followed by Henan with 36, Chongqing with 29, and Qinghai with 13 [12]. - District - and county - level urban investment entities were the main body, and non - bond - issuing entities accounted for 94% [12]. 3.2.2 The Next Stage of the "Exit - List" Work May Focus on Higher - Level Bond - Issuing Entities - The current debt resolution path is to prioritize cleaning up platforms with simple debt relationships and small market impacts. Based on the fact that over 70% of financing platforms have exited, it is estimated that the implicit debts of district - and county - level urban investment in some provinces may have been mostly resolved, and the next stage may focus on higher - level bond - issuing entities [19]. 3.3 Insights into the Transformation Direction of Urban Investment from Asset - Liability Changes 3.3.1 Limited New Bond Issuance after Exiting the List, with Marginal Improvement in Bank Liquidity Support - Among the 447 entities that announced exiting the financing platform list, 420 were non - bond - issuing entities. Focusing on the 27 bond - issuing entities, as of June 30, 2025, only 4 of the 18 entities with outstanding bonds increased their bond scale compared to June 30, 2024 [23]. - According to the semi - annual report data in 2025, the short - term borrowing balance of these exit - list bond - issuing entities increased by 40.61% year - on - year, the bond balance increased slightly by 6%, and the long - term borrowing decreased slightly by 0.72%. The liquidity support from commercial banks for "exit - list" entities has improved [23]. 3.3.2 Changes in Assets and Liabilities of Urban Investment after Exiting the List - **Asset Side**: The pace of project construction has slowed down, and the asset management function has been enhanced. Urban investment enterprises have become more cautious in new project investments. The significant increase in fixed assets may be due to the injection of operating assets by local governments, aiming to enhance the platform's hematopoietic ability [2][29]. - **Liability Side**: Short - term liquidity support is prominent, and the long - term financing function needs to be restored. The growth of long - term borrowing is low. Local governments prioritize liquidity safety, and new project investments are more cautious. Special bonds have replaced some bank medium - and long - term loans to some extent [2][32]. 3.4 How to Evaluate the Credit of Urban Investment after Exiting the List 3.4.1 Market Perception Has Matured, and Valuation and Credit Qualifications Are Becoming More Differentiated - The market reaction has gone through stages from significant initial divergence and limited pricing differentiation to subsequent convergence of expectations and finally entered a new stage of significant differentiation based on individual qualifications. The future market will conduct more refined credit evaluations of exit - list entities [33]. 3.4.2 Reconstruction of the Credit Framework - Short - Term Focus on Liquidity, Medium - Term on Hematopoietic Ability, and Long - Term on Functional Positioning - **Short - term**: The key is to evaluate the thickness of the liquidity safety cushion, including the coverage of short - term debts by monetary funds, available bank credit lines, and the scale of high - quality realizable assets [37]. - **Medium - term**: The core is to examine the transformation effectiveness and independent survival ability of the platform, mainly looking at the proportion of operating business income, profit quality, and net inflow of operating cash flow [38]. - **Long - term**: The key is to determine the platform's irreplaceability in the local economic ecosystem and the sustainability of its business model. Its credit foundation will shift from "implicit government guarantee" to "endogenous value" [38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing transformation of local government financing platforms in China, highlighting the shift away from reliance on government credit and the implications for the future of these platforms and their operations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Background and Current Developments - Since 2025, many local government financing platforms have announced their exit from government financing, with over 15 platforms making such announcements in October alone [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued a notice in August 2025, mandating the complete exit of local government financing platforms by June 2027, aiming to eliminate hidden local government debt [1][2][4]. - As of September 26, 2025, 114 local financing platforms have officially announced their exit, with Shandong leading with 28 exits [2][3]. Group 2: Reasons for the Transition - The transition is driven by two main factors: the need for compliance with new policies aimed at preventing local debt risks and the internal necessity for financing platforms to evolve into market-oriented entities [4][5]. - Historical data shows that previous rounds of platform exits have led to significant numbers of financing platforms leaving official lists, indicating a pattern of increasing regulatory pressure [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Financing Platforms - The exit from government financing is seen as a critical step for local financing platforms to become independent market entities, allowing them to engage in public-private partnerships and diversify their business operations [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between financing platforms and local governments should not be viewed as entirely severed; rather, a clear delineation of responsibilities is necessary for effective collaboration [7][8]. Group 4: Future Directions and Strategies - Financing platforms are encouraged to enhance their self-sustaining capabilities by shifting focus from large-scale infrastructure projects to sustainable cash-generating market-oriented businesses [11][12]. - Strategies for transformation include optimizing traditional operations, expanding into promising market sectors like renewable energy, and effectively managing existing assets to generate revenue [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges faced by local government financing platforms (城投公司) in China, particularly in the context of the real estate market downturn and the central government's directive for these platforms to exit the real estate sector. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Local Financing Platforms - Many local financing platforms are experiencing severe financial difficulties, with reports of salary cuts and reduced benefits for employees [1][2] - The central government has emphasized the need for a structured exit from the real estate market, indicating that the era of local financing platforms relying on government backing to acquire land and borrow funds is over [3][4][6] - The upcoming debt obligations for real estate companies are substantial, with 534.2 billion yuan due by 2025, and only 220.9 billion yuan raised in new debt, leading to a liquidity crisis [8][9] Group 2: Market Conditions and Impacts - The real estate market is facing a significant downturn, with a 42% drop in sales for the top 100 real estate companies and a 67% decrease in land transfer fees in some cities [9][12] - Local governments are under pressure due to declining land sales, which are critical for funding public services, leading to a tightening of fiscal resources [12][14] - Consumer sentiment is also low, with only 35% of potential buyers planning to purchase a home in the near future, exacerbating the inventory issues faced by local financing platforms [12][14] Group 3: Transition and Future Opportunities - Some local financing platforms have begun to pivot towards new business models, such as asset management through REITs and urban renewal projects, indicating a potential path for survival [14][15] - Successful transitions are being observed in companies like China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property, which are adapting to the changing market dynamics by focusing on renovation and community development rather than new construction [14][15] - The article concludes that while the exit from the real estate market may seem dire, it presents an opportunity for transformation and rebirth for capable local financing platforms [15]