一级利差收窄
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政府债周报:一级利差收窄,二级利差走阔-20251104
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-04 11:44
Report Title - 《一级利差收窄,二级利差走阔——政府债周报(11/02)》 [1][6] Report Summary 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - From November 3rd to November 9th, local government bonds with a total value of 9.1607 billion yuan were scheduled for issuance, including 4.5211 billion yuan in new bonds (0 billion yuan in new general bonds and 4.5211 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.6397 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (3.3664 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.2733 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From October 27th to November 2nd, local government bonds worth 27.0682 billion yuan were issued, including 17.191 billion yuan in new bonds (1.7004 billion yuan in new general bonds and 15.4906 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 9.8772 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (7.7314 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 2.1458 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of November 2nd, a total of 199.3409 billion yuan in the second batch of the fifth - round special refinancing bonds and 7.82 billion yuan in the sixth - round special refinancing bonds had been disclosed, with an additional 570 million yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with the largest disclosed issuance amounts in the second batch of the fifth - round were Jiangsu (25.11 billion yuan), Hunan (12.88 billion yuan), and Guizhou (11.76 billion yuan) [6]. - As of November 2nd, 124.4366 billion yuan in special new special bonds for 2025 and 243.223 billion yuan since 2023 had been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosed issuance amounts were Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan), and Hubei (12.9769 billion yuan). The top three provinces or municipalities in 2025 were Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (10.2748 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Local Government Bond Net Supply and Issuance Progress - From October 27th to November 2nd, the net supply of local government bonds was 17.8 billion yuan, while the forecasted net supply from November 3rd to November 9th was - 3.6 billion yuan [11][13]. - As of November 2nd, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 85.81%, and that of new special bonds was 90.63% [11][26]. 4. Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds showed different trends. The first - level spread narrowed, and the second - level spread widened [1][6]. 5. New Special Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special bonds included transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, ecological environment protection, and other fields. The investment amounts varied by month [43].