Group 1: Economic Trends - China's export growth has been declining since March, with rates of 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.8% respectively, while actual export levels remain stable around $300 billion[9] - Exports to the US have significantly shrunk, showing declines of 9.1%, -21.0%, and -34.5%[9] - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at 5.2%, with a neutral scenario suggesting an annual growth of 4.4% and an optimistic scenario at 4.9%[12] Group 2: Trade and Policy Implications - The trade war narrative has shifted from a core focus to a long-term perspective, with the potential for systemic challenges in key sectors by 2025[19] - The impact of tariffs is expected to deepen quarterly, with macroeconomic conditions remaining variable[48] - The government is expected to implement a "structural counter-cyclical" policy to balance growth and inflation concerns[27] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown signs of weakness, with significant declines observed in May compared to seasonal expectations[100] - Consumer spending has demonstrated resilience, with a notable recovery in retail sales driven by trade friction easing and service consumption stabilization[92] - Manufacturing investment is facing downward pressure, with a return to "recession-style" expansion observed[111]