Policy Insights - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized a "restrained" policy approach, allowing for a temporary hold on demand-side policies due to the unexpected resilience of the economy in Q2[4] - The focus has shifted from "intensifying implementation" to "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating a more cautious stance on macroeconomic policies[7] - The meeting notably reduced attention on real estate, with only a mention of "high-quality urban renewal," reflecting a shift in policy focus[8] Economic Strategy - Demand-side policies will now prioritize service consumption growth rather than just goods consumption, addressing potential risks of over-subsidizing durable goods[8] - Supply-side policies are also restrained, focusing on calibrating expectations around "anti-involution" measures, which aim for fair competition rather than blanket production cuts[10] - The current macroeconomic policy aims to balance cyclical pressures and structural issues, with a clear strategy to support industrial upgrades and consumption expansion over the long term[15] Capital Market Reform - The meeting highlighted the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, with a focus on improving the quality of A-share listed companies[16] - As real estate income growth slows (2.9% in 2023 compared to 8.7% from 2015-2021), the capital market is seen as a key avenue for increasing household asset income[16] - Optimizing the quality of listed companies is viewed as essential for stabilizing the capital market and boosting long-term consumer spending[16] Risk Factors - There are uncertainties regarding overseas economic policies that could impact domestic economic strategies in the second half of the year[18] - The economic fundamentals in Q3 face downward pressure, with potential challenges in export growth and ongoing tariff negotiations[18]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 水线下的冰山 "政策克制+需求前置"下的预期差 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：董德志 0755-81982035 0755-22940456 021-60933158 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn lizn@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980524090003 S0980516060001 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 贸易战：已非核心叙事 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 今年3月以来，我国出口增速逐月回落，分别为12.3%、8.1%、4.8% • 但实际出口规模稳定，位于3000亿美元中枢附近，顺差情况类似 • 结构上看，对美出口显著萎缩，分别为9.1%、-21.0%、-34.5% • 转口贸易对冲明显，美国盟友对华进口上升 缘由一：短期冲击可控 缘由一：短期冲击可控 图：我国出口规模维持平稳 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图：对美 ...