下一代创新药
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医药行业2026年年度策略报告:从“治疗领域”和“技术平台”双管齐下挖掘创新龙头-20251216
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-16 02:44
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement of the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, focusing on innovation from both "therapeutic areas" and "technology platforms" [5][6] - The growth of commercial health insurance premiums is expected to provide new payment sources for medical expenses, as the scale of commercial health insurance is projected to reach 977.4 billion yuan by 2024 [29][30] - The report identifies potential therapeutic areas such as metabolic diseases (e.g., weight loss), chronic diseases (e.g., hypertension, hyperlipidemia), and central nervous system diseases (e.g., Alzheimer's, Parkinson's) as key focus areas for innovation [5][38] - Emerging technology platforms like small nucleic acid drugs, radioactive drugs (RDC), and CAR-T therapies are highlighted as significant areas for investment [5][38] Market Review - As of November 15, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the market, with the pharmaceutical index rising by 22.09% compared to a 17.62% increase in the CSI 300 index, resulting in a 4.47 percentage point outperformance [11] - The chemical preparation sector showed the best performance, increasing by 40.52%, followed by medical services (+36.98%) and chemical raw materials (+25.34%) [20] - The overall PE valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at 30.89 times, which is relatively low compared to historical averages, indicating potential for future growth [22][23] Innovative Drugs - The report notes that the growth of health expenditures in China, which reached 9.06 trillion yuan in 2023, is outpacing GDP growth, indicating a robust market for innovative drugs [26][27] - The analysis of multinational corporations (MNCs) reveals that innovation is a core competitive advantage, with companies like Eli Lilly and Novartis showing significant growth driven by innovative products in advanced technology fields such as GLP-1 and ADC [31][32] - The report highlights the strong sales performance of GLP-1 drugs, with Eli Lilly's Mounjaro generating $6.515 billion in revenue in Q3 2025, reflecting a 109% year-on-year increase [44] CXO and Upstream - The report indicates a slight increase in pharmaceutical financing, with a recovery in business development transactions and H-share IPOs, which is expected to stimulate innovation [5] - The demand for external CXO services is growing, particularly in emerging fields such as peptides and small nucleic acids, while internal CXO orders are also showing signs of recovery [5][39] Medical Devices - The domestic medical device market is currently under pressure due to policy impacts, but improvements are anticipated as companies continue to innovate and expand internationally [5] - The report suggests that the industry fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on companies like Mindray Medical and Microelectrophysiology [5][39]