21世纪经济报道记者 吴霜 王增武直言，当前经济金融运行逻辑已从线性转向非线性，2008 年全球金融危机引发的 "伊丽莎白女王 之问"——"为何学界未能预判如此重大的危机"，其核心答案便与非线性特征下的不确定性刻画相关。 他指出，随着经济进入高质量增长阶段，市场主体的投资、消费、出口意愿趋于谨慎，根源在于经济金 融环境中的不确定性显著增大，传统基于确定性或可量化风险的决策框架已难以适配 "看不见未来" 的 市场现状。 "投资的核心是在不确定性中寻找确定性溢价，而非线性数学期望正是刻画这种不确定性的关键理论工 具。" 王增武解释道，传统投资决策中追求的 "风险溢价"，仅能覆盖可量化的风险部分，而当前市场更 多面临的是 "模糊性"—— 即已知资产涨跌两种可能，但无法精确判断其发生概率，如涨势概率在 60%-70% 区间却难以确定具体数值，这种模糊性正是不确定性的核心构成，也是非线性数学期望的主 要刻画对象。 为让理论更易理解，王增武通过数学表达式对比了不同场景下的收益逻辑：定期存款与连续复利对应的 是时间价值与绝对收益，传统风险资产投资叠加了风险溢价，而在非线性框架下，资产收益还应包含 "均值不确定性溢价" 与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to new tariffs and market uncertainties, highlighting the potential for gold to serve as a safe-haven asset amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [1][3]. Market Overview - On July 11, gold prices rose to $3,370 per ounce, marking a 1.34% increase, with COMEX gold futures experiencing three consecutive days of gains [1]. - The market is currently seeing a tug-of-war around the $3,300 per ounce mark, with significant speculative activity noted [2][3]. - In the first half of the year, gold prices reached new highs, with London gold peaking at $3,500 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 28% [3]. Speculative Activity - As of July 1, speculative positions in COMEX gold futures increased to 136,697 contracts, the highest in 11 weeks, but saw a reduction to 134,842 contracts by July 8 [3]. - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation after speculative trading, with gold prices experiencing a range-bound movement since the second quarter [3]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [4]. - Globally, central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 years, with a survey indicating that over 30% of reserve managers plan to increase their gold holdings in the next year [4]. Institutional Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in institutional investment in gold, with public funds and bank wealth management products expanding their "gold+" offerings, which typically allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to gold [6]. - The number of funds of funds (FOFs) holding gold ETFs has doubled over the past four years, reaching 234 by mid-2025, compared to just 20 in 2021 [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term price fluctuations, gold is viewed as a stable asset for long-term allocation, particularly in the context of increasing global uncertainties [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and rising national debt is expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against market volatility [8].