Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the domestic anti - involution sentiment shows a game of differentiation, and the tariff agreement between the US and the EU as well as the rebound of the US dollar index may suppress prices. Fundamentally, the situation has not changed much, with nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. During the current metal consumption off - season, the overall demand for pure nickel downstream is relatively sluggish, and enterprises mainly purchase on demand. Stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, the spot market transactions are weak, and social inventories remain at a high level. Some ferronickel production lines are switching to producing nickel matte, and the ternary industry chain remains sluggish, with low demand for high - priced nickel sulfate. With the end of the rainy season, nickel ore inventories at ports are continuously increasing, and there is an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. - For nickel, the release of production capacity of secondary nickel in Indonesia and domestic electrowon nickel, the slowdown in demand growth, and the year - on - year expansion of the supply surplus. Although there is still a structural shortage of nickel ore, under the continuous negative feedback of the industrial chain, the smelter cost is significantly inverted. In the long run, the oversupply situation of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short term, under the game of macro - sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of 【117000, 126000】 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of selling on rallies. - For stainless steel, with a large oversupply of production capacity, the price fluctuates with cost support. Currently, the production side and anti - involution stimulus support the price to some extent, but the impact of maintenance and production cuts on the overall production plan is limited, and the actual purchasing power of downstream in the traditional off - season is limited. In the long run, the oversupply will continue to suppress the price increase space. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of 【12300, 13100】 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the high end of the range [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Running Logic**: Domestically, the anti - involution sentiment shows a game of differentiation. Overseas, the tariff agreement between the US and the EU and the rebound of the US dollar index may suppress prices. Fundamentally, nickel remains in an oversupply situation, with low downstream demand for pure nickel and weak stainless steel market transactions [10]. - **Industry News**: The APNI Association has proposed re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore to include the economic value of iron and cobalt, which may increase smelting costs. The Indonesian government plans to change the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year starting in 2026 and urges enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget starting in October 2025. An 11 - EF production line project in Indonesia has recently suspended production, which may affect ferronickel production by about 1900 metal tons per month [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventories decreased by 3654 tons, domestic inventories increased by 135 tons, and global visible nickel inventories decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remains at HPM + 24~HPM + 26, and the industry expects a high probability of a premium reduction in August. In June, China's stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons and a year - on - year cumulative decrease of 25%. In July, domestic stainless steel production is planned to be 3.12 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively; Indonesia's production in July is planned to be 430,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For nickel, it is recommended to sell on rallies as the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 【117000, 126000】 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the high end of the range of 【12300, 13100】 yuan/ton [10]. 02盘面回顾 - The nickel price is mainly dominated by macro - sentiment, and relevant data charts show the trends of domestic liquidity positions, LME and SHFE nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, and SHFE nickel 1 - 3 month spreads [12]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: This week, nickel ore port inventories reached 9.8787 million tons, an increase of 395,100 tons or 4.17% from the previous week. In the past month, nickel ore port inventories have increased by 2.2864 million tons, an increase of 30.11%. The nickel ore price has generally declined, and with the end of the rainy season, it is expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [17]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel production is in a loss, and some smelters have cut production [19]. - **Intermediate Products**: The supply of intermediate products is loose, and the price of nickel sulfate is weak. Some production lines are switching to producing nickel matte, and it is expected that the supply of nickel matte will increase significantly in July [22][23]. - **Imports**: In June, ferronickel imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [26]. - **Inventories**: Global nickel inventories decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with China's inventories increasing and LME's decreasing. LME nickel inventories decreased by 3654 tons this week [30]. - **Electrowon Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel is sufficient, and the output has increased significantly year - on - year. The cumulative domestic pure nickel output from January to June increased by 29% year - on - year to 197,000 tons, and it is expected that the total output in July will be 32,200 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month [34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of stainless steel is at a high level, and production cuts have limited impact. The production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants in July is planned to be 3.268 million tons, with a small decrease compared to the previous period. Stainless steel production is in a loss, and the economy of scrap stainless steel is prominent. Stainless steel inventories are still decreasing, but social inventories remain high. The real estate demand is低迷, while the manufacturing industry has been boosted. The ternary industry chain remains sluggish [37][41][43][46][49]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global supply surplus of nickel is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is 3.893 million tons, and the total demand is 3.545 million tons, with a balance of 348,000 tons. In China, the supply surplus in 2025E is expected to be 162,000 tons, with a total supply of 2.539 million tons and a total consumption of 2.29 million tons [57].