1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that although raw material costs support nickel prices, macro - factors still exert pressure on them. In the short - term, if the supply disruptions in April are realized and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices. The recommended strategies are to buy on dips after stabilization, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [2][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface and Summary - **Market Review**: In March 2026, due to the Fed's hawkish monetary policy and the tense situation in the Middle East, the risk appetite of funds declined significantly, causing the non - ferrous metal sector to fall. After Trump's remarks eased the situation, the market risk appetite rebounded, but nickel prices still failed to return to the beginning - of - month high. From the beginning to the end of the month, the position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. Due to the lack of capital promotion, the nickel price rebound was weaker than expected despite the narrowing supply - demand gap and strong cost support [3][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The macro environment is still uncertain, and asset prices may fluctuate significantly. In the industrial aspect, terminal demand has entered the peak season, stainless steel production has increased month - on - month, and the demand for ternary batteries is stable. Supply disruptions are concentrated in Indonesian nickel mines and MHP. Currently, due to factors such as nickel mine quotas, export taxes, and sulfur transportation in the Middle East, the prices of nickel mines and MHP remain high. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in April, the sulfur supply shortage will gradually intensify, ultimately affecting the supply of MHP, electrowon nickel, and nickel sulfate. If the inventory reduction amplitude increases, it will support prices and raise the price center [4][11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6][120]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In March 2026, the non - ferrous metal sector was affected by the Fed's policy and the Middle East situation, with nickel prices first falling and then rebounding but not reaching the initial high. The position of the Shanghai Nickel Index decreased by nearly 10%. On the supply side, Indonesian nickel mines were in short supply due to Ramadan and other factors, and the MHP price soared. On the demand side, domestic stainless steel production increased, inventory decreased, and the demand for new - energy ternary materials was stable [10]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of March 27, 2026, the global visible inventory was 373,000 tons. LME inventory decreased by 6,402 tons compared with the end of last month, while SMM's six - region social inventory increased by 13,270 tons. The overall visible inventory increased by 6,368 tons compared with the end of last month, lower than expected, indicating that the surplus has shifted back to China and the overseas nickel plate supply is tight [16]. - **Stainless Steel Raw Material Cost Support and March Resumption of Production**: - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: Affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the supply of Philippine nickel mines in April is expected to decrease. The first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in April decreased slightly month - on - month, but the overall trend is strong. The NPI price has risen, but ferronickel plants are still in a loss, and production has declined. Chromium - based raw material prices have also increased, pushing up the cost of stainless steel [30][41]. - **Steel Mill Cost Inversion and Production Reduction Pressure**: It is expected that the production of stainless steel crude steel in China and India will increase significantly in March. In the first two months of 2026, stainless steel imports and exports decreased year - on - year. As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 14,000 tons compared with the previous month, with the 200 - series and 400 - series accumulating inventory and the 300 - series reducing inventory [46]. - **Weak Peak Season Demand and Downstream Fear of High Prices**: In March, the global macro - environment was turbulent. The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and the tense Middle East situation have put pressure on the commodity market. The real - estate data showed a slight recovery in March, and the production schedule of white goods in April improved year - on - year [65][81]. - **Ternary Demand Supports the High - Level Operation of Nickel Sulfate Price**: - **Stable Nickel Sulfate Price**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of Indonesian MHP increased by 12% year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 87% year - on - year. Due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the cost of hydrometallurgy has increased. Although there is currently no reduction in production due to sulfur shortage, the long - term impact still needs attention [82]. - **Underwhelming New - Energy Vehicle Market Sales**: - **Domestic Market**: From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 52% year - on - year, but the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles decreased. The power cell production increased by 33% year - on - year in the first two months, mainly due to the significant increase in the battery capacity per vehicle. The new - energy heavy - truck market is booming, and the export of lithium - ion batteries has increased [96][99]. - **Overseas Market**: In January 2026, the global new - energy vehicle sales decreased year - on - year, with different trends in different regions. China's new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly year - on - year. The European market has the best performance among the three major mainstream markets, and the new - energy vehicle market in some developing countries is growing rapidly [104][105]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: The duration of the Middle East conflict and macro - sentiment are the main uncertainties, which have a systematic impact on the non - ferrous metal sector and commodities. On the industrial side, the supply - side disruptions are expected to be strong, and the cost support is solid. If the supply disruptions are realized after April and consumption turns seasonally strong, the supply - demand relationship may tighten marginally. If there are signs of inventory reduction, especially overseas, it will support nickel prices [112]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: 1. Unilateral: Buy on dips after stabilization. 2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. 3. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [120].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Inventory accumulation is slowing down marginally, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is rising due to support from the ore end [1]. - Stainless steel: The price is oscillating as demand and cost are in a game [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,120, with a change of 20 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,370, with a change of - 20 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 336,342, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 164,447 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 135,150, with a change of - 1,300 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,083, with a change of - 1 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,400, with a change of - 50 compared to T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore (HPM) as a new revenue source. The revision mainly involves the pricing of cobalt and other elements, and details are pending official release [2]. - **Mine Restart**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel price and the removal of local facility restrictions. The annual production capacity of PRONICO is 25,000 tons of nickel - iron alloy, and the annual production of CGN mine is 2.2 million tons [3]. - **Production Quota**: The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. PT WBN's production and sales quota is cut by 70% compared to 2025. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) expects the revised RKAB in 2026 to increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [4][5][6]. - **Accidents and Sanctions**: A landslide occurred in the tailings area of IMIP in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [5][6]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [8]. - **New Energy**: On March 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged at 5, 7, and 7 days month - on - month. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 to 13.0 days month - on - month, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.4 to 7.1 days month - on - month [8]. - **Nickel - iron and Stainless Steel**: On March 26, SMM nickel - iron full - industrial - chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons and 4% week - on - week. In February, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 10% and 8% respectively. The steel - union stainless - steel social inventory was 1.1575 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [8]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel and stainless - steel prices fluctuate widely this week. Policy disturbances push prices up mid - week, but limited breakthrough power due to macro - level impacts causes prices to decline again. The situation of the US - Iran war eases, and some traders bet on a near - term cease - fire. The Indonesian tax policy is still under discussion, and if implemented, it will strengthen the bottom space of the nickel industry chain. [3] - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly influenced by macro factors and Indonesian policies. There is strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel due to the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season expectation. In the long - term, the trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, with Indonesian supply and new - energy demand being key factors. [4][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel and stainless - steel markets show wide - range fluctuations. Policy disturbances and macro - level impacts are the main factors. The Indonesian tax policy and RKAB quota approval are important variables. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron shows different trends, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. [3] - The near - term trading logic is affected by macro and Indonesian policies, with strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel. The long - term trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, and new - energy demand may increase. [4][7] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and calendar - spread strategies of nickel and stainless - steel show no obvious arbitrage opportunities currently. [9] - The past trading strategies include buying and selling different nickel futures contracts and options, some of which have been closed with profits. [9] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, the price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 15,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. Risk - management strategies include shorting futures and options for inventory management and buying futures and options for procurement management. [10] - For stainless steel, the price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.48% and a historical percentile of 36.6%. Similar risk - management strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management. [11] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Likely Positive Information**: Downstream stainless - steel demand recovers and inventory decreases. ESDM estimates the first - quarter approval quota to be 100 million tons, and plans to add tax - payment progress to the RKAB approval process. [12] - **Likely Negative Information**: The US dollar index strengthens, suppressing the metal market. The Fed's interest - rate hike expectation rises, and the implementation of the Indonesian nickel product windfall tax and export tax is postponed. [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures show a strong trend this week. The price once reaches 138,000, but then drops due to macro - level suppression. The fundamentals have peak - season expectations, with inventory and warehouse receipts decreasing, and stainless - steel downstream production increasing. The cash market shows price stability and strong demand recovery. [13] - The net positions of key profitable seats in nickel decrease, with more long - position liquidation during the upward movement. For stainless steel, trading volume and open interest increase during the mid - week recovery, and there are opportunities to go long at low prices considering the peak - season expectation. [14] - There are no obvious changes in the basis and calendar - spread structures of nickel and stainless - steel, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. [21] - **International Market**: The international market leads the domestic market, and the price hovers around 17,300. Indonesian policy disturbances have a stronger impact on the domestic market sentiment, while macro - level suppression is first reflected in the international market. There are frequent arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and international markets. The inventory of LME nickel decreases due to changes in delivery brands. [27] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the current downward range, the profit pressure of the nickel industry chain decreases after the disk rebound. The profit of integrated production of electrowon nickel from intermediates is high, the profit of pyrometallurgical production lines is still in a game, and the profit of nickel iron is also repaired. The price of upstream nickel ore is firm, and the downstream stainless - steel industry tries to lower raw - material prices. The profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel in the new - energy sector shrinks, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rises. [40] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain fluctuates more recently. Nickel ore production and shipment in Indonesia and the Philippines increase after the rainy season. ESDM expects to approve about 100 million tons of quotas in the first quarter, and the bottom support of nickel ore remains. The supply of nickel iron is expected to increase, but the domestic nickel - iron production is at a historical low due to cost competition. The supply of new - energy and intermediate products may decrease in the short - and medium - term. [42][43] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The valuation of nickel and stainless - steel is rising and adjusting. After the festival, upstream producers hold back supply and raise prices, and downstream demand in March and April is increasing. The new - energy chain shows a stable and strong price, with no obvious increase in marginal demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate. There is an expectation of battery export rush in April, but it has not fully affected the demand for nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly, and downstream demand is expected to increase in March and April. [48]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - **Likely Factors**: Anticipated reduction in Indonesian nickel ore quotas and sulfur supply risks (blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) support the supply side; Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory remains flat, and overseas inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The macro - environment faces pressure, with concerns about economic stagflation due to the energy crisis and high oil prices; nickel prices are volatile due to macro - factors, leading to panic selling and a weakening market [3]. - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and closely monitor macro - dynamics and Indonesian supply - side news [3]. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main contract, consecutive contracts, and LME nickel 3M have increased, with weekly growth rates of 2.17%, 2.03%, 2.07%, 2.07%, and 1.97% respectively; trading volume decreased by 11.12%, while open interest increased by 0.1%, and warehouse receipts increased by 1.59%; the basis of the main contract decreased by 48.65% [4]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The latest values of stainless steel main contract and consecutive contracts have increased, with weekly growth rates of 3%, 2.31%, 2.47%, and 2.52% respectively; trading volume increased by 4.84%, open interest increased by 1.66%, and warehouse receipts increased by 11.83%; the basis of the main contract decreased by 37.19% [4]. - **Nickel Spot**: The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, and nickel beans have increased, with daily growth rates of 0.74%, 1.30%, 1.12%, and 1.31% respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 959 tons to 88449 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 216 tons to 282240 tons, stainless steel social inventory increased by 2.7 tons to 982 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 879 tons to 29346 tons [5]. Charts - **Nickel Price Trends**: Charts show the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, as well as the closing price of stainless steel futures main contract, and the average spot price of nickel [6][8][10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Charts display China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), Philippine laterite nickel ore prices, China's port nickel ore inventory, domestic social nickel inventory, LME nickel inventory, China's and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production [12][13][15][16][17]. - **Downstream Products**: Charts show the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium, the profit margin of nickel beans for producing nickel sulfate, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - sourced nickel sulfate, China's monthly production of nickel sulfate, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors [19][21][22][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Charts show the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil, monthly stainless steel production, and stainless steel inventory [25][27][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The nickel market shows a contradiction between macro and mine - end factors, leading to intensified short - term long - short games. The stainless - steel market is suppressed by overseas macro factors but supported by real - world costs [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,160, with a change of 1,610 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,065, up 210 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 537,401, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is 326,125 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,500, with a change of 3,050 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,084, down 3 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,300, up 100 from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy Changes**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties. The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [1][7] - **Production and Operation**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota is cut by 70% compared to 2025. The ESDM estimates Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore production to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel ice [2][4][6] - **Accidents and Sanctions**: A landslide occurred in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, causing one death and suspending operations in the affected area. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned [5][6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly, mainly affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar putting pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. In terms of supply, the production schedule for March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. There was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season [6]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, while the main contract of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices were affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply was sufficient, and there were different situations in each part of the industrial chain [6]. - **Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 77 to 78, a 1.30% increase; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 72 to 73, a 1.39% increase [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 32000 to 31250, a 2.34% decrease; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32500 [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3500, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 144970 to 140690, a 2.95% decrease; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 138020 to 134040, a 2.88% decrease; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144000 to 140600, a 2.36% decrease [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15087.5 to 15062.5, a 0.17% decrease [12] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices rose by 1 US dollar per wet ton this week, and sea freight remained the same as last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 19, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.9266 million wet tons, a decrease of 656800 wet tons or 7.65% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Philippine nickel ore was 7.6266 million wet tons, a decrease of 606800 wet tons or 7.37%; the inventory of nickel ore from other countries was 300000 wet tons, a decrease of 50000 wet tons or 14.29% [16]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, the nickel ore import volume was 1.2239 million tons, a decrease of 160300 tons or 11.58% month - on - month and an increase of 77800 tons or 6.79% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore import volume was 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by the war and a stronger US dollar. Domestic nickel supply was sufficient, and inventories continued to rise [20][22]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 39430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel import volume was 16930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5135 tons or 23.27% and a year - on - year increase of 9333 tons or 122.85%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel import volume was 38997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel export volume was 2266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1547 tons or 40.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 17934 tons or 88.78%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel export volume was 177407.479 tons, a year - on - year increase of 143135 tons or 417.64% [33]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 199500 tons, and the metal production was 43900 tons (new sample), a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 53100 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.06%. The battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 31250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton, and the electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 32500 yuan per ton, the same as last week [36]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1146 tons to 283512 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 20 tons to 63661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56690 tons. The social inventory data showed that the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 228 tons compared with last week, the spot inventory was 24727 tons, an increase of 413 tons, the bonded area inventory was 2970 tons, unchanged, and the total inventory was 84387 tons, an increase of 641 tons compared with last week [38] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan per ton, and the price of high - nickel iron remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - nickel iron decreased by 10.5 yuan per nickel compared with before the holiday, to 1084 yuan per nickel, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3675 yuan per ton [43][44]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production in terms of metal was 21100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the production of low - nickel pig iron was 4700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2024, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, among which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [46]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, China's nickel iron import volume was 831700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78200 tons or 8.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 77300 tons or 8.51%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia in February was 796000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89100 tons or 10.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 98700 tons or 11%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel iron import volume was 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96500 tons or 5.25%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia was 1.6811 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 112500 tons or 6.27% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178300 physical tons, equivalent to 17000 nickel tons. The negotiable inventory of medium - and high - nickel iron was 152300 tons, equivalent to 16900 nickel tons [52] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 25 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan per ton [57][58][59]. - **Production**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818300 tons of 200 - series, 572300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Imports and Exports**: The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 109000 tons, and the export volume was 260000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15000 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 693700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13400 tons [67] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales Volume**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694000 and 765000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [71]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 36.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 15.1 GWh, accounting for 22.1% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 53.3 GWh, accounting for 77.9% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price started to weaken, the 20 - day moving average turned downward, the positions decreased significantly, and some long - positions withdrew. The MACD indicator showed a downward trend, and the KDJ entered the relatively bottom area, indicating a certain rebound demand. As long as the previous low is not broken, the oscillating trend remains intact, and an oscillating strategy is maintained [77] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of each link on nickel prices is as follows: nickel ore is neutral to bullish due to the continuous impact of RKAB and strong demand in Indonesia; nickel iron is neutral with weakly stable prices and strong cost support; refined nickel is neutral to bearish with sufficient supply and high inventories; stainless steel is neutral with slightly decreasing inventories but still at a high level and weak consumption; new energy is neutral with a significant month - on - month decrease in production during the off - season [80]. - **Trading Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [82][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, there are contradictions between the macro - situation and the mine end, intensifying the short - term long - short game. The Middle - East conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market, but the mine end and wet - process supply contradictions support nickel prices in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the covered strategy. Focus on the Indonesian nickel mine contradictions and the implementation of supplementary quotas [2]. - For stainless steel, there is overseas macro - suppression, but real - cost support. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the cost may limit the downward elasticity in the short term. Mid - term nickel - steel arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Analysis 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - Macro factors such as the US - Iran conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation has sharply declined, and the probability of a long - term interest - rate increase has risen. - On the fundamental side, the current mine - end contradictions and pyrometallurgical costs may limit the downward elasticity of nickel compared to other non - ferrous metals. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, pushing the marginal pyrometallurgical cash cost above 130,000 yuan/ton. - If the mine - end contradictions and wet - process supply problems fade in the middle of the year, the logic of wet - process replacing pyrometallurgical marginal costs may emerge. But in the short term, the marginal cost is still the integrated pyrometallurgical path. - The Indonesian APNI Association mentioned a 30% quota revision space, reducing the upward elasticity of Shanghai Nickel. Pay attention to the covered strategy in the short term [2]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - The US - Iran conflict's shipping problems have a negative pressure expectation on the global economy. Stainless steel consumption in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. Overseas inflation expectations significantly reduce the probability of interest - rate cuts, and the expectation of tightened liquidity puts pressure on risk assets. - The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel is not large. The destocking level after the Spring Festival in recent weeks is acceptable compared to the same period in previous years, but the upstream inventory is at a relatively high historical level. The production schedule in March soared to 3.63 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 40%. Among them, the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.25 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0% and a month - on - month increase of 49%. - The main contradiction lies in the raw material end. The cash - cost break - even line for delivery on the spot market has risen to nearly 14,100 yuan/ton. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, and the marginal cost of Indonesian ferronickel has increased by nearly 20%, with the full cost at around 1,070 yuan/nickel. The overall cost may temporarily limit the downward elasticity [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - On March 20, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 641 tons to 84,387 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 228 tons to 56,690 tons, spot inventory increasing by 413 tons to 24,727 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 2,970 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,146 tons to 283,512 tons [4]. - On March 20, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged month - on - month at 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 month - on - month to 13.0 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 7.2 days [5][6]. - On March 20, the SMM ferronickel full - industry chain inventory decreased by 4% month - on - month to 126,000 metal tons and decreased by 4% week - on - week. In February, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - month increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The stainless - steel social inventory was 1.1274 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 691,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, and the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 436,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.10% [6]. 3.3 Market News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [6]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months due to the sharp rebound in nickel prices and the US lifting restrictions on its local facilities. The expected restart time of the CGN mine is around April - May 2026, consistent with the restart time of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [7]. - On February 10, the ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB). The approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7]. - On February 12, Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [8]. - On February 18, 2026, a landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of the affected area's operations [8]. - On February 17, 2026, Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply. It suspended mining operations and put the processing plant on standby for planned maintenance [8]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities to submit a work plan and budget (RKAB), with the annual production and sales (internal and external) volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [8]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province. These companies were fined according to the regulations, with the nickel ore commodity fine standard at 6.5 million Indonesian rupiah per hectare [9]. - The ESDM estimated that Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [9]. - The APNI said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [9]. - The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mineral and coal mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless steel, including closing prices, trading volumes, prices of various nickel products, and price differences [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the macro - risk increases, the market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the disk is in a volatile adjustment. The raw material end has accumulated contradictions, and the fundamentals are intertwined with long and short factors. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 134,000 - 145,000 [3]. - For stainless steel, the raw material is in short supply, the cost support is strengthening, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are gradually recovering. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Supply - In February 2026, affected by holidays, the production data of refined nickel in China weakened. The output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. In March, the estimated output is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [3]. Demand - The demand side shows no obvious improvement. Downstream maintains a rigid procurement rhythm, and the spot trading is generally light. The overall demand of the electroplating downstream is relatively stable, with little room for growth in the future. Alloy demand still accounts for the majority, and the alloy demand in military and shipping industries is good. In March, stainless steel plants resumed production, but the current profit of steel plants is low, and large - scale procurement has not started after the holiday. The high price of MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but the demand is flat, and the price of nickel sulfate fluctuates mainly [3]. Inventory - Overseas inventory remains at a relatively high level, domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the bonded area inventory remains stable. As of March 13, the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,866 tons; the SMM domestic six - region social inventory was 87,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,953 tons; the bonded area inventory was 2,200 tons, with no change week - on - week [3]. Cost - Due to the tightening of raw materials, the external procurement cost has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process has increased. On March 13, the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate was 153,900 yuan/ton, from externally purchased MHP was 146,400 yuan/ton, and from externally purchased high - grade nickel matte was 143,100 yuan/ton. The cost of producing electrowon nickel from Indonesia's integrated MHP was 113,300 yuan/ton, and the production cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process was 141,700 yuan/ton [3]. Basis - The mainstream premium and discount quotation of SHFE nickel 2604 is 6,500 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week; the real - time converted premium and discount range of Jinchuan nickel's ex - factory price in Shanghai area to the SHFE disk is 2,870 - 7,320 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared with last week. The mainstream premium and discount quotation of Russian nickel to SHFE nickel 2604 is - 200 - - 150 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation remains the same as last week [3]. Stainless Steel Raw Materials - The supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia has further intensified. During the Ramadan, the supply release rhythm has slowed down, the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong, and the price of wet - process ore continues to rise. The premium on the main island is 30 - 32 US dollars/wet ton, and that on the outer island has risen to 35 - 37 US dollars/wet ton. The tender price of Philippine mines continues to rise. The tender price of 1.3% grade in Benguet this week is 54 US dollars/ton (FOB), a further increase of 2 US dollars compared with last week. The price center of the high - grade nickel pig iron market has steadily moved up, and some scattered orders have been traded in the market [4]. Supply - According to Mysteel statistics, in February 2026, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 2.695 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 841,400 tons, a decrease of 23.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.32%. The output of 300 - series was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 538,700 tons, a decrease of 28.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%. In March, the estimated crude steel production of stainless steel is 3.6795 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 984,500 tons, an increase of 36.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. Among them, the output of 300 - series is 1.9008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 581,400 tons, an increase of 44.07%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.05%. Steel plants have completed most of their maintenance during the Spring Festival, and the overall production schedule in March has increased [4]. Inventory - The social inventory is steadily being digested, the warehouse receipts remain stable, and the inventory pressure has marginally improved. As of March 12, the social inventory of 300 - series in Wuxi and Foshan was 532,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,400 tons. On March 13, the stainless steel futures inventory on the SHFE was 51,240 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 713 tons [4]. Basis and Cost - As of March 13, the spot price of Wuxi Hongwang 304/2B 2.0 is 14,450 yuan/ton, remaining the same week - on - week; the basis is 430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Recently, the cost center has increased. The cold - rolling cash cost of high - grade nickel pig iron is 14,640.04 yuan/ton, and the production cost of cold - rolled products from scrap stainless steel is 14,364.47 yuan/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel is under pressure from macro - risk preference, and contradictions at the mine end limit the downside elasticity; stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment, with real - world cost providing support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 131,550, down 3,650 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 13,855, down 165 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 398,352, with a change of 137,766 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract is 199,960, with a change of 73,534 from T - 1 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 131,450, down 3,250 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,087, down 6 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,200, down 150 from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron & Steel/Zhangpu is 14,950, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, starting to treat cobalt, a by - product of nickel, as an independent commodity and levy royalties [1] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the significant rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions on its local facilities. The CGN mine is expected to restart between April and May 2026, in line with the restart of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [2] - The ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB) on February 10, with the approved nickel ore production quota between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities to submit an RKAB reflecting an annual production and sales volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction from 2025 [4][6] - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [5] - On February 18, a landslide occurred in the tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply on February 17, suspending mining operations next week and putting the processing plant on standby for planned maintenance [5] - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province, and they were fined according to the regulations [6] - The ESDM estimated that Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel ice [6] - The APNI said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless - steel markets, stating that for nickel, the accumulation of smelting inventories resonates with the macro - sentiment, and the shortage at the mine end supports the lower limit; for stainless steel, both the fundamentals and the macro - environment exert pressure, while the current cost provides support [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 136,400, down 530 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,120, down 70. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 350,916, a decrease of 52,020, while the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 242,978, an increase of 59,058 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 135,250, down 2,700; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,095, unchanged. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,400, down 50, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,095, unchanged [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Policy - related**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties. The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons. The revision of the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, with the possibility of increasing the nickel production quota by up to 30% [1][4][7] - **Company - related**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months. PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB with an annual production and sales volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction from 2025. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku, Indonesia, were sanctioned [2][4][6] - **Accident - related**: A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area. Sherritt International Corporation scaled back the operation of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [8]