2025 年 11 月 25 日 缓,宏观与消息短线批 钢价承压低位震荡。但下方想 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 张再宇 【基本面跟踪 镍基本面数据 1 公安期赏研 品 研 期货研究 | | - - - - - - - - - - - - | | | T-1 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标名称 | 415 | | T-5 | CUT-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 沪镍主力(收盘价) | 115, 530 | 1.480 | -1.220 | -4. 150 | -5.8500 | -4.080 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力(收盘价) | 12, 335 | 45 | -80 | -270 | -430 | -415 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力(成交量) | 148, 534 | 10. 331 | 45, 619 | 65. 670 | 54, 613 | 37, 280 | | | | 不锈钢主力(成交量) | 204, ...

高库存制约镍价反弹力度 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美国9月非农就业人数超预期，但失业率升至4.4%，12月降息预期不明朗。中国经济缺乏亮点， 仍受房地产市场拖累，股市近期大幅下挫，市场等待政策助力。 产业方面：本次镍价下跌前，由于纯镍与硫酸镍价差扩大，已有部分电积镍产线转产硫酸镍。镍价跌至成 本附近引发进一步减产，预计11-12月纯镍产量显著下降。生产商惜售挺价，现货普遍升水，金川镍升水已 经从2000翻倍至4000以上。不过需求端也进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也 环比走弱。供需双弱下，关注进口镍能否有增量弥补。国内库存本周减少，LME库存小幅增加，国内外合 计累库速度放缓。 期货层面：沪镍持仓达到30万手，创出2021年以来的新低。伦镍跟随沪镍下跌，尚未达到4月低点。周五 传闻印尼某MHP厂生产干扰影响6000金吨产量，或将进一步影响纯镍和 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 镍库存高企 关注成本支撑强度 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F 03122184 投资咨询号：Z 0023260 ⚫ 宏观上，美国恢复宏观数据发布，劳动力市场表现褒贬不 一。美联储10月会议纪要显示，其内部对12月降息预期存在 较大分歧。主因联储官员对通胀和劳动力市场的影响力预期 不一致。 ⚫ 产业上，菲律宾与印尼镍矿价格均有走弱迹象，但价格跌幅 有限，成本重心仍处于高位。硫酸镍市场热度降温，尽管 MHP供给依然偏紧，但下游多已完成备货，且市场进入淡 季，硫酸镍镍价下行。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（11.17-11.21） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价大幅回落，跌破年内低点，下游采购积极性尚可，近期部分产能减产， 格林美等货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，海运费小幅上升，印尼2026年RKAB配额 预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格继续回落，跌破900大关支撑，成本线重心再降。 不锈钢库存小幅回升，300系小幅回落，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格 局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状况分析 5、不锈钢市场状况分析 6、新能源 ...

盛屯矿业 20251120 摘要 盛屯矿业核心资产集中于刚果金，包括卡隆威铜钴矿及新收购的高品位 露天金矿，以及印尼高冰镍生产基地，实施"上控资源，下拓材料"的 全球化战略，优化营收结构，铜业务贡献主要毛利。 卡隆威铜钴矿已全面投产并达满产，2023 年产量超 6 万吨，周边勘探 区显示巨大增储潜力，与西部前沿矿区重叠，勘探面积超 300 平方公里， 未来可采储量潜力巨大。 公司在刚果金布局三个冶炼厂，预计 2026 年达满产 18 万吨，上市公 司权益产能约 11.5 万吨，香港科力新项目盈利显著，2024 年上半年已 达 5.42 亿元。 公司计划以 13.5 亿元收购加拿大上市公司股份，获得刚果金金矿 84.68%权益，资源量 123.6 吨，平均品位近 3 克/吨，露天开采，预计 年产黄金 6-7 吨，成本 300-350 美元/盎司。 尽管刚果金存在地缘政治风险，但公司项目远离冲突区，附近巴里克金 矿稳定运营超 10 年，运输问题通过陆运和空运结合解决，整体经营风 险可控。 Q&A 盛屯矿业的资源层面有哪些关键点？ 盛屯矿业在资源层面上有几个关键点。首先，公司在刚果金拥有一个重要的铜 矿探矿权，紧邻 ...

短期基本面压力明显， 镍价或继续承压 镍周报 2025/11/22 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格稳中微跌。菲律宾方面，国内镍铁冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，港口库存累积明显。虽然本周菲律宾矿价 未有下跌，但预计后市在终端需求走弱背景下，矿价或将承压运行。印尼方面，近期镍矿石产量增长明显，火法矿整体供需相对宽松，加之镍 铁价格持续下跌，印尼铁厂利润率接近为零，对高价矿接受程度较低，预计后市矿价或小幅下跌；湿法矿市场仍相对平淡，预计在MHP需求支 撑下价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周终端消费表现疲软，负反馈效应带动高镍生铁价格继续下滑。需求端，当前处于不锈钢需求传统淡季，终端消费表现疲软，下游企 业在库存高企，采购谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。供应端，市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lygend Resources & Technology is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price (TP) of HK$27.56, reflecting a 10x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, due to its leadership in the global nickel industry and integrated operations across the nickel supply chain [1] Company Overview - Lygend Resources & Technology has transitioned from nickel ore trading to industrial operations, establishing a comprehensive presence in the nickel industry chain, including trading, smelting, production, and equipment manufacturing [1] - The company has secured long-term trade and supply agreements with upstream mining companies in the Philippines, Indonesia, and other regions, enhancing its resource stability [1] Competitive Advantages - The construction of a nickel business ecosystem covering the entire industry chain provides Lygend with distinctive competitive advantages, including stable resource supply through equity stakes granted to Indonesian partners [2] - The establishment of independent overseas industrial parks equipped with necessary infrastructure allows for operational autonomy and reduced transaction costs [2] - Collaborations with high-quality resource suppliers and long-term agreements with top-tier LiB material suppliers strengthen the company's position across the industry chain [2] Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has announced a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to lead to a systematic increase in average cobalt prices, as the quotas for 2026-2027 will only account for 44% of its 2024 production [3][4] - The tightening regulations on cobalt export quotas are anticipated to benefit Lygend's hydrometallurgy project in Indonesia, potentially boosting earnings and valuation [4] Financial Projections - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for Lygend is projected at Rmb1.74 in 2025 and Rmb2.49 in 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The stock is currently trading at 10.2x 2025 estimated P/E and 7.0x 2026 estimated P/E, with a target price suggesting a 43% upside [4]

湖北宜化化工股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-009 | 特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | ☑ | 投 | 资 | 者 | 关 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | 系 | 活 | 动 | 类 | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | | 别 | □现场参观 | | | | | | | | | | □其他 | 天风证券、君和资本、阳光资产、华商基金、鹏华基金、东方证券 | | | | | | | | | | 活 | 动 | 参 | 与 | 公司董事、董事会秘书 | 王凤琴 | 人员 | | | | | 公司规划发展部 | 于多光 | 公司证券部 | 胡志翔 | | | | | | | | 时间 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 2025 | 11 | 21 | 地点 | 宜昌 | | | 现场交流 | 形式 | 1.公司"十五五"发展规划能给大家描述一下吗？ | | | | | | | | | 答："十五五"期间，宜化立足矿产资源禀赋，聚焦宜昌、新 | 疆 ...

11月21日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报115250.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至收盘，沪镍主力最高触及115580.00元，下方探低113980.00元，跌幅达1.75%。 目前来看，沪镍行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于沪镍后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 广州期货分析称，印尼方面，印尼能矿部表示计划下调2026年镍矿配额RKAB，将低于原计划3.19亿 吨，由于未明确下调量级，市场对此情绪反应有限，更关注于弱现实逻辑。硫酸镍方面，镍价回落带动 镍折扣系数下调，不过中间品现货流通量仍有限，硫酸镍价格或稳中偏弱。供需方面，下游低价刚需采 购需求量级有限，精炼镍社会库存继续积累，基本面维持弱势。综合而言，精炼镍基本面缺乏改善，社 会库存趋势性积累，镍价或震荡磨底，关注印尼政策利多扰动可能性，主力合约下方支撑位参考11.3- 11.4万元/吨。 混沌天成期货表示，印尼暂停镍冶炼项目建设许可对供应影响有限，全球镍供需过剩格局未改，库存高 位且需求稳定，宏观面美联储鹰派言论令有色承压，镍价预计短期维持低位区间震荡。 铜冠金源期货指出，美联储多位官员发表鹰 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].