1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, the news that Indonesia's 2026 RKAB plan set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons boosted the nickel price and drove the stainless - steel market price to rise. However, on Thursday, the sudden increase of 20,000 tons in the nickel inventory of the London Metal Exchange broke the market's expectation of supply shortage. Coupled with the previous rapid increase in nickel price, which had deviated from the fundamentals and actual transactions, a large number of profit - taking orders left the market, leading to a sharp decline in nickel price and a synchronous correction in stainless - steel futures price. On the spot side, affected by the poor connection between raw material procurement and production, the arrival rhythm of steel mills has slowed down recently. On the demand side, due to the tight supply of steel mills and the low inventory of traders, the demand for restocking and re - allocating goods has been released intensively, and the market has reported quantities actively, but steel mills are still cautious in taking orders. The sharp price fluctuations have intensified the market game, and both buyers and sellers are in a stalemate. In the short term, with solid cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Futures and Spot Market**: On January 9th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.94%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.25%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; in January, the output of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 948,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,084 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 139,600/608,600/200,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.35% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 30,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.36%, and the unloading quantity was 90,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 33 yuan/nickel [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - On January 9th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.94%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.25%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% [18]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about - 360 yuan (- 54) higher than the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about - 260 yuan (- 34) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the futures contract was 226,905 lots, a month - on - month increase of 24.97% [21]. - In terms of the price difference between different months, the price difference between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 85 (+20), and the price difference between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 140 (+55) [24]. 3.3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [29]. - In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; in January, the output of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [32]. - It is estimated that in November, the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cumulative output from January to November reached 4.53 million tons. In November, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56%, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 1.104 million tons [35]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [38]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [43]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [46]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the sales volume of automobiles in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [49]. 3.5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 948,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,084 tons [54]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 139,600/608,600/200,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.35% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 30,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.36%, and the unloading quantity was 90,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16% [57]. 3.6. Cost Side - In November, the import volume of nickel ore was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Currently, the quoted price of nickel ore with 1.5% nickel content is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [62]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 33 yuan/nickel [65]. - Last week, the quoted price of chrome ore was 53.5 yuan/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/dry ton; the quoted price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,200 yuan/50 - base tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons. In December, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [68]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is 362 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 2.69% [71].