库存如期去化， 市场矛盾不足 不锈钢月报 2025/10/10 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，10月10日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报13150元/吨，环比+0.38%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为955元/镍，环比+0.00%； 废不锈钢均价报9100元/吨，环比-0.54%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12860元/吨，环比-0.27%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，09月国内冷轧不锈钢排产151.56万吨。09月粗钢产量为290.28万吨，环比+7.87万吨，1-09月累计同比6.48%。据MYSTEEL 样本统计，08月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达143.36万吨，环比+2.12%；09月300系冷轧产量78.39万吨，环比-1.21%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1-08月，商 ...

宏观氛围积极，周期底 部渐明 镍月报 2025/10/10 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：近期镍矿价格持稳运行为主。菲律宾方面，虽然国内镍铁价格下跌，需求走弱，但菲律宾主产区雨季即将到来，矿山挺价意愿偏强， 预计菲律宾镍矿价格短期或难有下跌。印尼方面，整体供需依旧宽松，但RKAB 最新一轮配额修订预计将在本月公布，随后将提交2026年的新 RKAB，出于对四季度及2026年RKAB审批额度的担忧，冶炼厂已加快备库，整体矿价下行空间有限。 ◆ 镍铁：近期镍铁价格有所走弱，主要系不锈钢社会库存去库速度较缓，旺季对不锈钢价格支撑有限，钢企采购意愿普遍低迷，带动镍铁价格走 弱。目前，市场逐步转向交易旺季之后的基本面悲观预期，预计后市仍有进一步下跌空间。 ◆ 中间品：供应端， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with the end of eleven consecutive inventory declines and the start of inventory accumulation, along with a gradual weakening of cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a bottom - level oscillation [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,560 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a - 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,757 (- 65,749) lots, and the open interest was 83,149 (- 735) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation with a trading range of less than 1,000 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the previous day due to the approaching National Day holiday [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic market was calm with stable prices. Near the holiday, the market was in a wait - and - see mode with no transactions. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, with firm quotes and good loading efficiency. Downstream iron plants are still in the red, maintaining a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement, and there is no obvious pre - holiday stockpiling. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is likely to rise [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan decrease from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the premium and discount of some brands decreased due to the monthly spread adjustment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (1,188) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,760 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,271 (- 12,046) lots, and the open interest was 87,251 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed an oscillating decline. After opening, it once reached the daily high of 12,855 yuan/ton but was suppressed by long - liquidation and short - increasing, finally closing 90 yuan lower than the previous day. The decrease in trading volume and open interest reflects the strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of market participants and the obvious short - term capital withdrawal [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the decline in the futures market and the loosening of nickel - based raw material prices, the confidence in the stainless - steel spot market is insufficient. Moreover, as most pre - holiday stockpiling is completed near the National Day holiday, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with light trading. Some traders are mainly busy with the delivery of previous orders. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,100 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B are 330 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

库存： 4 月 21 日，LME 镍库存较此前一周持平， SHFE 库存较前一周-775 吨，全球的二大交易所库存合计 4.26 万吨，较此前一周-775 吨。 供需方面：近期进口窗口持续关闭，俄镍偏紧升水与金川镍倒挂，交易所库存低位，一级镍市场供应健康。二级市场镍铁有消息传出不锈钢厂集中采购成交 价较此前有抬升，市场信心改善。消费端合金消费已有好转，支持镍价反弹。不过伴随镍价拉升，MHP 或硫酸镍生产电积镍利润空间恢复，从经济性角度 上看，后续如果持续大幅上涨电解镍生产线将加快投产，中期供应端过剩仍然或对镍形成压制。 观点：整体短期美指回落市场宏观压力有减，基本面俄镍偏紧，交易所库存低位，一级镍市场供应健康，消费端合金及不锈钢改善，短期镍价基本面改善镍 价偏好，但中期供应压力仍大，镍价上方空间预计有限。 镍矿方面，镍矿1.5%CIF均价50美元/湿吨，较此前一周下跌2美元，镍矿供需改善，跌势继续放缓。镍铁方面，上周五SMM8-12%高镍生铁均价1107.5元/镍 点，较前一周上涨55元/镍点。铁厂集体挺价意愿不断走高，同时下游不锈钢市场回暖，市场情绪上升。供需方面，近期进口窗口持续关闭，俄镍偏紧升水 与金川 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 镍：底部运行，警惕供给端扰动 报告日期 2025-9-29 四季度报告 ⚫ 观点总结 展望四季度，美联储降息路径仍有不确定性，国内稳增长政策有望陆 续出台，"反内卷"叙事影响反复，镍价仍受到宏观事件带来的阶段 性影响。基本面来看，原生镍过剩格局延续，需求端暂难有起色，镍 价料底部盘整，价格对供给端扰动更为敏感，四季度重点关注矿端消 息及宏观变化，纯镍估值区间可关注一体化电积镍生产成本（随矿价 浮动）。操作上以短线区间为主，可持续通过卖出虚值看涨期权等组 合策略增厚收益，注意控制风险。 ⚫ 风险提示 资源国镍相关政策变动、国内外宏观消息扰动、镍库存变化 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 LME&SHFE 镍价格走势 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 数据来源：Wind 往期相关报告 1.基本面暂乏驱动，镍不锈钢宽幅 震荡 2025.08.20 2.不锈钢期货震荡反弹，关注期现 正套机会 2025.08.05 3.印尼 PNBP 镍新政落地，影响如 何？2025.04.17 投资观点： 区间震荡 | 镍（NI） | | --- | 分析师： ...

2025年9月15日，中国企业联合会、中国企业家协会向社会发布了"中国企业500强" 榜单。青山控股集团有限公司（简称"青山控股"）以4066.3984亿元的 营收位列第63位。 这一成绩与十年前形成鲜明对比——2015年，青山控股仅以650.33亿元营收位列中国企业500强第200名。十年间，公司营收增长3416亿元，成为中国首家 跻身"4000亿俱乐部"的民营钢铁企业。 过去十年，是中国钢铁行业跌宕起伏的十年。从产能过剩到供给侧改革，从环保风暴到转型升级，在这个被公认为"艰难"的行业里，青山控股却实现了一 场惊人的跨越式发展。 2015年，青山控股营收为650亿元，在中国企业500强中排名第200位； 2024年，其销售收入突破4000亿元，成为中国首家年销售收入超4000亿元的民营钢企； 1 十年飞跃，民营钢企的壮丽征程 2025年，营业额进一步增至4066.40亿元，位列《财富》世界500强第247位、中国企业500强榜单第63位。 2 "世界镍王"的财富之路 作为青山控股的掌舵者，项光达被誉为"世界镍王"。2025年，他以家族持股市值605.4亿元继续领跑钢铁行业，成为钢铁行业首富。 同年，胡润全球 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. In the industry chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping of mines might be delayed. Ferronickel prices remained stable, with a firm cost line, and ferronickel enterprises were still in the red. The inventory reduction of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" slowed down. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the installation of ternary batteries still showed a decline, which had limited impact on the increase in nickel demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Outlook**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: - Shanghai nickel main contract: It will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, oscillating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [9]. - Stainless steel main contract: It will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: - Some nickel ore grades saw a slight increase of $1 per wet ton, and the freight rate remained the same as last week. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased by 1.76%. The prices of low - nickel ferronickel and high - nickel ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of electrolytic nickel and 304 stainless steel decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: - Some nickel ore prices increased slightly, and the freight rate remained flat. As of September 26, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.0937 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.72%. This week, nickel ore transactions were okay, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping volume of Philippine mines might be delayed. Indonesia's supply was still abundant [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and there was no pre - holiday restocking demand. In the long - term, the supply and demand would continue to increase, but the surplus pattern would not change. The domestic new energy sector might be a new demand driver. In the medium - and long - term, prices might be under pressure, but would not deviate far from the cost line, and the center of gravity might shift downward. In August 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,695 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.62%. The LME inventory increased by 1,680 tons, while the Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 959 tons [22][25][39]. - **Ferronickel Market**: - Ferronickel prices remained stable. In August 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,900 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of 9.96%. The import volume in August was 874,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.4%. The inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons, equivalent to 21,700 tons of nickel [43][47][53]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.36% this week. In August, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons, and the 300 - series production increased by 2.34% month - on - month. The import volume was 117,100 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons. As of September 26, the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 260 tons month - on - month [58][64][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. The production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The sales volume of power batteries was 98.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 44.4%. The installation volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 32.4%, among which the installation volume of ternary batteries decreased by 10.0% year - on - year [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price still fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. The position increased when the price rose and decreased when it fell, indicating that the main players were selling high and buying low. The MACD red bar fluctuated slightly above the 0 axis, showing obvious lack of momentum and no clear direction. The KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area. The price was mainly oscillating, and the amplitude might be enlarged due to the influence of the surrounding market [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: - Nickel ore: Neutral. Transactions were okay, quotes were stable, freight rates were firm, and it might be affected by typhoons in the short term [83]. - Ferronickel: Neutral. Ferronickel prices remained stable, and the cost line was firm [83]. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and overseas inventory continued to accumulate [83]. - Stainless steel: Slightly bullish. The cost was firm, and the inventory decreased [83]. - New energy: Neutral. The production data were good, but the installation of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [83].

2025 年 9 月 29 日 节前扰动有限 镍价震荡 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，美国二季度经济数据表现亮眼，GDP增速及个人消 费增速超市场预期，劳动力市场高频数据彰显韧性，但通胀 压力略有抬升。而从8月数据来看，核心PCE增速放缓，个人 消费支出增速略超预期，消费韧性下通胀曲率放平，滞涨风 险似有消退。报告期内，美联储官员密集发声，但票委间对 降息路径存 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）季报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 底部区间 沪镍或震荡上行 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 9 月 28 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2511，2025 年 9 月 25 日收于 122990 元/吨，本季 度镍价整体呈区间震荡走势。 宏观层面，全球央行开启降息周期，加拿大、美国、日本、美国等央行相继 公布利率决议。9 月 18 日凌晨（北京时间）的美联储降息备受市场关注：美联储 宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%–4.25%。这是自 2024 年 9 月开启本轮降息周期以来的第四次降息，也是 2025 年内的首次降息。美联 储决策者的预测显示，2025 年将再降息 50 个基点，2026 年和 2027 年将各降息 25 个基点。美联储 19 位官员中，有 1 位官员认为 2025 年不降息，有 6 位官员认 为应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次，有 2 位官员认为应累计降息 50 个基点， 即降息 2 次，有 9 位官员认为应累计降息 75 个基点，即降息 3 次。有 1 位 ...