【现货】据Mysteel，截至11月24日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格12700元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格12600元/吨，日环比下跌50元/吨；基差535元/吨，日环比下跌45元/吨。 【原料】矿端消持稳为主，招标落地市场相对平静。菲律宾方面，北部Eramen1.4%镍矿招标落地至42 美元/湿吨、Benguet1.25%镍矿招标尚未有成交落地；印尼方面，11月（二期）内贸基准价走跌0.12-0.2 美元/湿吨，内贸升水方面，当前主流升水维持+26。镍铁价格区间继续下移，下游主流钢厂镍铁招标新 低下跌至880元/镍（舱底含税），铁厂生产积极性不高，对原料镍矿采购多观望心理。不锈钢低迷氛围 间接影响铬铁市场走弱，铬铁供应压力加大，叠加铬矿价格走跌，原料成本支撑下滑。 【供应】据Mysteel统计10月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量351.38万吨，月环比增加8.71万吨，增幅 2.54%，同比增加6.8%；300系180万吨，月环比增加3.73万吨，增幅2.1%，同比增加6.6%。11月排产 45.51万吨，月环比减少1.67%，同比增加4.1%；其中300系178.7万吨，月环比减少0.7%，同比 ...

Arif指出，印尼目前占据全球镍市场60%以上份额，已成为不锈钢和电池材料行业的重要参与者。但他 补充道，随着冶炼厂对镍矿需求激增，政府将采矿生产配额（即RKAB）有效期从三年缩短至一年，进 一步收紧了国内供应。 "随着数百家冶炼厂持续扩张，矿业配额需求激增，而采矿作业规划周期却在缩短，"Arif指出，"由此导 致矿产供应与工业需求的失衡日益加剧。"为缓解镍矿供应紧张局面，Arif敦促印尼政府优先审批冶炼 厂关联矿山的RKAB申请。Arif强调，政府还需加强勘探力度，提升采矿技术能力和合规水平。 SHMET 网讯：11月22日（周六），印尼镍业论坛（FINI）主席Arif Perdanakusumah发表声明称，若镍 矿供应持续紧张，印尼多家镍冶炼厂可能停产。 Arif指出，尽管印尼拥有全球约45%的镍储量，但由于国内镍矿供应未能跟上冶炼厂快速扩张的步伐， 镍加工企业已大幅增加从菲律宾采购镍矿的规模。据FINI数据显示，2024年印尼从菲律宾进口镍矿超过 1040万吨，预计2025年进口量将增至约1500万吨。 Arif指出，若镍矿供应持续紧张，镍矿价格可能暴涨，冶炼厂将因高昂生产成本面临停产风险。他补充 称 ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 镍库存高企 关注成本支撑强度 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F 03122184 投资咨询号：Z 0023260 ⚫ 宏观上，美国恢复宏观数据发布，劳动力市场表现褒贬不 一。美联储10月会议纪要显示，其内部对12月降息预期存在 较大分歧。主因联储官员对通胀和劳动力市场的影响力预期 不一致。 ⚫ 产业上，菲律宾与印尼镍矿价格均有走弱迹象，但价格跌幅 有限，成本重心仍处于高位。硫酸镍市场热度降温，尽管 MHP供给依然偏紧，但下游多已完成备货，且市场进入淡 季，硫酸镍镍价下行。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价大幅回落，跌破年内低点，下游采购积极性尚可，近期部分产能减产，格林美等 货源偏紧。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，海运费小幅上升，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应 宽松。镍铁价格继续回落，跌破900大关支撑，成本线重心再降。不锈钢库存小幅回升，300系小幅回落， 需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振 有限。偏空 2、基差：现货116700，基差2650，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253950，-222，上交所仓单33785，-294，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净 ...

镍不锈钢产业链周报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

短期基本面压力明显， 镍价或继续承压 镍周报 2025/11/22 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格稳中微跌。菲律宾方面，国内镍铁冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，港口库存累积明显。虽然本周菲律宾矿价 未有下跌，但预计后市在终端需求走弱背景下，矿价或将承压运行。印尼方面，近期镍矿石产量增长明显，火法矿整体供需相对宽松，加之镍 铁价格持续下跌，印尼铁厂利润率接近为零，对高价矿接受程度较低，预计后市矿价或小幅下跌；湿法矿市场仍相对平淡，预计在MHP需求支 撑下价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周终端消费表现疲软，负反馈效应带动高镍生铁价格继续下滑。需求端，当前处于不锈钢需求传统淡季，终端消费表现疲软，下游企 业在库存高企，采购谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。供应端，市场 ...

镍铁价格崩塌， 不锈钢持续下跌 不锈钢周报 2025/11/22 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 03 供给端 06 成本端 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 目录 周度要点小结 | | 交易策略建议 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 策略类型 | 操作建议 | 盈亏比 | 推荐周期 | 核心驱动逻辑 | 推荐等级 | 首次提出时间 | | 单边 | 观望 | | | | | | | 套利 | 观望 | | | | | | 期现市场 期现市场 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，11月21日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12700元/吨，环比+0.00%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比-2.20%； 废不锈钢均价报8500元/吨，环比-1.17%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12290元/吨，环比-0.73%。 供给 ...

2025年1-10月中国镍铁进口总量925.8万吨，同比增加215.8万吨，增幅30.4%。其中，自印尼进口镍铁量 902.5万吨，同比增加218.6万吨，增幅32.0%。 数据来源：海关总署 据中国海关数据统计，2025年10月中国镍铁进口量90.5万吨，环比减少18万吨，降幅16.6%；同比增加 21.4万吨，增幅31.0%。其中，10月中国自印尼进口镍铁量88.4万吨，环比减少17.1万吨，降幅16.2%； 同比增加21.5万吨，增幅32.1%。中国10月镍铁进口小幅下滑，仍维持高位。 ...

数据来源：海关总署 注：进口/出口总量（总计）中亦包括上表未列出的部分原产地数据 新喀里多尼亚是第二大进口来源地，当月从新喀里多尼亚进口镍铁8,562.48吨，环比增加13.37%，同比 上升51.52%。 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年10月镍铁进口分项数据一览表： | 原产地 | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 印度尼西V | 884,038.43 | -16.22% | 32.87% | | 新喀里多尼亚 | 8.562.48 | 13.37% | 51.52% | | 聖伦比亚 | 5.181.70 | -33.96% | 12.79% | | 韓國 | 4.386.31 | -14.04% | -39.58% | | 田 | 2,150.70 | -76.09% | -47.19% | | 三来西亚 | 275.71 | 415.13% | 91.80% | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 268.77 | 16.04% | | | 俄罗斯 | 246.16 | -27.14% | -- | | 日本 | 33.91 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].