1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel and stainless - steel prices fluctuate widely this week. Policy disturbances push prices up mid - week, but limited breakthrough power due to macro - level impacts causes prices to decline again. The situation of the US - Iran war eases, and some traders bet on a near - term cease - fire. The Indonesian tax policy is still under discussion, and if implemented, it will strengthen the bottom space of the nickel industry chain. [3] - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly influenced by macro factors and Indonesian policies. There is strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel due to the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season expectation. In the long - term, the trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, with Indonesian supply and new - energy demand being key factors. [4][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel and stainless - steel markets show wide - range fluctuations. Policy disturbances and macro - level impacts are the main factors. The Indonesian tax policy and RKAB quota approval are important variables. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron shows different trends, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. [3] - The near - term trading logic is affected by macro and Indonesian policies, with strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel. The long - term trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, and new - energy demand may increase. [4][7] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and calendar - spread strategies of nickel and stainless - steel show no obvious arbitrage opportunities currently. [9] - The past trading strategies include buying and selling different nickel futures contracts and options, some of which have been closed with profits. [9] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, the price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 15,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. Risk - management strategies include shorting futures and options for inventory management and buying futures and options for procurement management. [10] - For stainless steel, the price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.48% and a historical percentile of 36.6%. Similar risk - management strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management. [11] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Likely Positive Information**: Downstream stainless - steel demand recovers and inventory decreases. ESDM estimates the first - quarter approval quota to be 100 million tons, and plans to add tax - payment progress to the RKAB approval process. [12] - **Likely Negative Information**: The US dollar index strengthens, suppressing the metal market. The Fed's interest - rate hike expectation rises, and the implementation of the Indonesian nickel product windfall tax and export tax is postponed. [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures show a strong trend this week. The price once reaches 138,000, but then drops due to macro - level suppression. The fundamentals have peak - season expectations, with inventory and warehouse receipts decreasing, and stainless - steel downstream production increasing. The cash market shows price stability and strong demand recovery. [13] - The net positions of key profitable seats in nickel decrease, with more long - position liquidation during the upward movement. For stainless steel, trading volume and open interest increase during the mid - week recovery, and there are opportunities to go long at low prices considering the peak - season expectation. [14] - There are no obvious changes in the basis and calendar - spread structures of nickel and stainless - steel, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. [21] - **International Market**: The international market leads the domestic market, and the price hovers around 17,300. Indonesian policy disturbances have a stronger impact on the domestic market sentiment, while macro - level suppression is first reflected in the international market. There are frequent arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and international markets. The inventory of LME nickel decreases due to changes in delivery brands. [27] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the current downward range, the profit pressure of the nickel industry chain decreases after the disk rebound. The profit of integrated production of electrowon nickel from intermediates is high, the profit of pyrometallurgical production lines is still in a game, and the profit of nickel iron is also repaired. The price of upstream nickel ore is firm, and the downstream stainless - steel industry tries to lower raw - material prices. The profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel in the new - energy sector shrinks, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rises. [40] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain fluctuates more recently. Nickel ore production and shipment in Indonesia and the Philippines increase after the rainy season. ESDM expects to approve about 100 million tons of quotas in the first quarter, and the bottom support of nickel ore remains. The supply of nickel iron is expected to increase, but the domestic nickel - iron production is at a historical low due to cost competition. The supply of new - energy and intermediate products may decrease in the short - and medium - term. [42][43] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The valuation of nickel and stainless - steel is rising and adjusting. After the festival, upstream producers hold back supply and raise prices, and downstream demand in March and April is increasing. The new - energy chain shows a stable and strong price, with no obvious increase in marginal demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate. There is an expectation of battery export rush in April, but it has not fully affected the demand for nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly, and downstream demand is expected to increase in March and April. [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to the concentrated delivery near the end of the month, the arrival of goods was obvious. The social inventory of stainless steel increased slightly after a decline. In the spot market, at the beginning of the week, driven by the rising futures market, inquiries were active, and rigid demand was concentratedly released at low prices, resulting in relatively good transactions. However, as the price increased, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices weakened, and transactions became dull. In terms of demand, the overall demand for 300 - series stainless steel was resilient, and the release of terminal demand was relatively stable. Some merchants completed their March sales targets ahead of schedule. The automotive industry performed well, strongly supporting the demand for stainless steel. In contrast, the demand in the architectural decoration field remained weak due to the continuous slump in the real estate market, and the performance of the home - appliance industry was also average, providing limited impetus to stainless - steel consumption. Overall, the current stainless - steel supply remained stable, terminal consumption slightly exceeded expectations, and the willingness of traders to stockpile increased. It is expected that the market will remain strong in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On March 27, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.75%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel futures contract on Friday afternoon was 14,390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.86% [11][18]. - **Supply**: In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude - steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.84%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.99%. The output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.36% [11][29][32]. - **Demand**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 92.9343 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.50%. In December, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively. In February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel - processing industry was + 10% [11][42][45]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%. On March 20, the futures warehouse - receipt inventory was 40,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,902 tons. On March 27, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 191,900 tons, 696,700 tons, and 269,000 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 0.43% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 52,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.35%, and the unloading volume was 82,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.20% [11][52][55]. - **Cost**: On March 24, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,110 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change. Iron - making plants in Fujian were currently losing 97 yuan/nickel point [11][62]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On March 27, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 14,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.75%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,090 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel futures contract on Friday afternoon was 14,390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.86% [18]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 108) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 90 yuan (- 118) higher than the main contract. The futures position was 192,331 lots, a week - on - week increase of 8.55% [22]. - In terms of the month - to - month spread, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was 50 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was 135 (- 10) [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude - steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.84% [29]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.99%. The output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.36% [32]. - It is expected that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in February was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.64%. In February, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 93,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.58% [35]. - In February, the net export volume of stainless steel was 150,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.60% and a year - on - year increase of 30.86%. From January to February, the cumulative net export volume was 2.9897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16% [38]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 92.9343 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.50% [42]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively. In February, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel - processing industry was + 10% [45]. - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%. In February, the automobile sales volume was 1.805 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 23.08% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.20% [48]. 3.5 Inventory - On March 27, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%. On March 20, the futures warehouse - receipt inventory was 40,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,902 tons [52]. - On March 27, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 191,900 tons, 696,700 tons, and 269,000 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 0.43% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 52,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.35%, and the unloading volume was 82,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.20% [55]. 3.6 Cost Side - In February, the nickel - ore import volume was 1.2239 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.58% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. Currently, the quotation for 1.5% nickel - ore is 77.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 7.4184 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.41% [59]. - On March 24, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,110 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change. Iron - making plants in Fujian were currently losing 97 yuan/nickel point [62]. - On March 27, the chromium - ore quotation was 61 yuan/dry ton, with no week - on - week change. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,700 yuan/50 - base tons, with no week - on - week change. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49% [65]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 568 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is - 3.77% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly, mainly affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar putting pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. In terms of supply, the production schedule for March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. There was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season [6]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, while the main contract of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices were affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply was sufficient, and there were different situations in each part of the industrial chain [6]. - **Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 77 to 78, a 1.30% increase; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 72 to 73, a 1.39% increase [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 32000 to 31250, a 2.34% decrease; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32500 [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3500, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 144970 to 140690, a 2.95% decrease; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 138020 to 134040, a 2.88% decrease; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144000 to 140600, a 2.36% decrease [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15087.5 to 15062.5, a 0.17% decrease [12] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices rose by 1 US dollar per wet ton this week, and sea freight remained the same as last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 19, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.9266 million wet tons, a decrease of 656800 wet tons or 7.65% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Philippine nickel ore was 7.6266 million wet tons, a decrease of 606800 wet tons or 7.37%; the inventory of nickel ore from other countries was 300000 wet tons, a decrease of 50000 wet tons or 14.29% [16]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, the nickel ore import volume was 1.2239 million tons, a decrease of 160300 tons or 11.58% month - on - month and an increase of 77800 tons or 6.79% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore import volume was 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by the war and a stronger US dollar. Domestic nickel supply was sufficient, and inventories continued to rise [20][22]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 39430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel import volume was 16930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5135 tons or 23.27% and a year - on - year increase of 9333 tons or 122.85%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel import volume was 38997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel export volume was 2266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1547 tons or 40.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 17934 tons or 88.78%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel export volume was 177407.479 tons, a year - on - year increase of 143135 tons or 417.64% [33]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 199500 tons, and the metal production was 43900 tons (new sample), a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 53100 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.06%. The battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 31250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton, and the electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 32500 yuan per ton, the same as last week [36]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1146 tons to 283512 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 20 tons to 63661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56690 tons. The social inventory data showed that the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 228 tons compared with last week, the spot inventory was 24727 tons, an increase of 413 tons, the bonded area inventory was 2970 tons, unchanged, and the total inventory was 84387 tons, an increase of 641 tons compared with last week [38] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan per ton, and the price of high - nickel iron remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - nickel iron decreased by 10.5 yuan per nickel compared with before the holiday, to 1084 yuan per nickel, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3675 yuan per ton [43][44]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production in terms of metal was 21100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the production of low - nickel pig iron was 4700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2024, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, among which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [46]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, China's nickel iron import volume was 831700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78200 tons or 8.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 77300 tons or 8.51%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia in February was 796000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89100 tons or 10.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 98700 tons or 11%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel iron import volume was 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96500 tons or 5.25%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia was 1.6811 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 112500 tons or 6.27% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178300 physical tons, equivalent to 17000 nickel tons. The negotiable inventory of medium - and high - nickel iron was 152300 tons, equivalent to 16900 nickel tons [52] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 25 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan per ton [57][58][59]. - **Production**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818300 tons of 200 - series, 572300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Imports and Exports**: The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 109000 tons, and the export volume was 260000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15000 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 693700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13400 tons [67] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales Volume**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694000 and 765000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [71]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 36.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 15.1 GWh, accounting for 22.1% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 53.3 GWh, accounting for 77.9% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price started to weaken, the 20 - day moving average turned downward, the positions decreased significantly, and some long - positions withdrew. The MACD indicator showed a downward trend, and the KDJ entered the relatively bottom area, indicating a certain rebound demand. As long as the previous low is not broken, the oscillating trend remains intact, and an oscillating strategy is maintained [77] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of each link on nickel prices is as follows: nickel ore is neutral to bullish due to the continuous impact of RKAB and strong demand in Indonesia; nickel iron is neutral with weakly stable prices and strong cost support; refined nickel is neutral to bearish with sufficient supply and high inventories; stainless steel is neutral with slightly decreasing inventories but still at a high level and weak consumption; new energy is neutral with a significant month - on - month decrease in production during the off - season [80]. - **Trading Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The outer market continues to decline slightly, showing a weak and volatile trend. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March is increasing, and domestic inventory is piling up, indicating sufficient market supply. On the industrial chain, the sentiment of bullish on nickel ore is strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continues to ferment, and there is a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line is firm. The inventory of stainless steel continues to decline slightly, and the demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, but the month - on - month decline is large in the off - season. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will run weakly in a volatile manner [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of spot stainless steel has decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the demand in Indonesia is strong, the price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line has strong support. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will run in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,200, down 740 from March 17; the price of LME Nickel was 17,160, down 95; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,020, down 75. The nickel index was 134,050, down 1,200, and the cold - rolled index was 13,563, down 68 [9]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 138,000, down 1,950; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,350, down 2,000; the price of 1 imported nickel was 134,700, down 2,050; the price of nickel beans was 137,250, down 2,000. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged, while the price in Foshan was 14,900, down 100 [9]. 2. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: As of March 18, LME nickel inventory was 283,950, an increase of 210 from the previous day; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,194, a decrease of 53. The total inventory was 341,144, an increase of 157 [12]. - **Previous Inventory Data**: As of March 13, the SHFE nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively [11]. 3. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Futures Inventory**: On March 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 53,481, a decrease of 421 from March 17 [17]. - **Regional Inventory**: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons month - on - month [16]. 4. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On March 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 15 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5; the sea freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 17 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.5 [20]. - **Nickel Iron Prices**: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,093.48 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 0.75; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,675 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [20]. 5. Stainless Steel Production Cost - **Cost Types**: The traditional production cost was 14,186, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,081, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 17,882 [22]. 6. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price was 133,893 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined and continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply in March is expected to increase, domestic inventory is piling up, and the market supply is sufficient. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, while the RKAB policy in Indonesia is still having an impact. The price of nickel - iron is weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is positive, inventory is negative, the disk is neutral, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2] - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, the price of nickel - iron is weakly stable, and the cost line provides strong support. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. The basis is positive, inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 17, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,940, down 460 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 17,255, down 230; the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,095, down 25. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 135,250, down 1250, and the cold - rolled index was 13,631, down 67 [10] - **Spot prices**: On March 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 139,950, up 1250; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,350, up 1250; the price of 1 imported nickel was 136,750, up 1500; the price of nickel beans was 139,250, up 1400. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,100, 15,000, 15,100, and 15,150 respectively [10] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1912 tons and 2894 tons respectively. On March 17, LME nickel inventory was 283,740, down 174 from the previous day; the nickel warehouse receipt was 57,247, down 60; the total inventory was 340,987, down 234 [12][13] Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons month - on - month. On March 17, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 53,902, an increase of 1188 from the previous day [17][18] Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 17, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 14.5 and 15.5 US dollars per ton respectively. The price of high - nickel wet ton was 1094.24 yuan per nickel point, down 0.75; the price of low - nickel wet ton was 3675 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 14,198, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,086, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 17,990 [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 134,742 yuan per ton [26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded, and the price returned above the 20 - day moving average, continuing to fluctuate around it. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. There was a strong bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The price of nickel - iron was weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price was firm, and Indonesia's demand was strong. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the cost line provided strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview** - **Futures**: On March 16, compared with March 13, the price of SHFE nickel main contract decreased by 530 to 136,400; the price of LME nickel increased by 165 to 17,485; the price of stainless steel main contract decreased by 70 to 14,120. The nickel index increased by 450 to 136,500, and the cold - rolled index decreased by 76 to 13,698 [10]. - **Spot**: On March 16, compared with March 13, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2,650 to 138,700; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,650 to 142,100; the price of 1 imported nickel decreased by 2,700 to 135,250; the price of nickel beans decreased by 2,700 to 137,850. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10]. **Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories** - As of March 13, the SHFE nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. On March 16, compared with March 13, LME nickel inventory decreased by 744 to 283,914, nickel warehouse receipts increased by 845 to 57,307, and the total inventory increased by 101 to 341,221 [12][13]. **Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories** - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 9,200 tons. On March 16, compared with March 13, the stainless steel warehouse receipts increased by 1,534 to 52,714 [17][18]. **Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices** - On March 16, compared with March 13, the prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5% and Ni0.9%) remained unchanged at 80 and 34.5 US dollars per wet ton respectively. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) decreased by 0.75 to 1,094.99 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel (below 2) remained unchanged at 3,675 yuan per ton [21]. **Stainless Steel Production Costs** - The traditional cost was 14,184, the scrap steel production cost was 14,079, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 17,873 [23]. **Nickel Import Cost Calculation** - The converted import price was 136,742 yuan per ton [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the bullish sentiment soared due to the shutdown of production capacities of four Indonesian enterprises, but then nickel prices fell again as the positive factors were digested and the international situation changed. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to the cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. The inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints** - For Shanghai nickel, this week, nickel prices fluctuated. The supply in March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, the inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - **Strategies** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [7][83]. - The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [8][83]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $74 to $77, a rise of 4.05%; the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $69 to $72, a rise of 4.35% [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased from 31,750 yuan/ton to 32,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 3,550 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%; the price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) increased from 1,090 yuan/nickel point to 1,100 yuan/nickel point, a rise of 0.92% [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 144,160 yuan/ton to 144,970 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.56%; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 137,060 yuan/ton to 138,020 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144,400 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,112.5 yuan/ton to 15,087.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17% [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: The nickel ore price increased by $3/wet ton this week, and the ocean freight increased by $5/wet ton. - **Inventory**: On March 12, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.5834 million wet tons, a decrease of 659,900 wet tons or 7.14% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 8.2334 million wet tons, a decrease of 604,900 wet tons or 6.84%; the nickel ore from other countries was 350,000 wet tons, a decrease of 55,000 wet tons or 13.58% [16]. - **Import**: In December 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3466 million tons or 40.33% month - on - month, and an increase of 473,100 tons or 31.13% year - on - year. The total nickel ore import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [16]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Purchase**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the price strengthened due to the shutdown of four Indonesian wet - smelting plants, but then fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream maintained rigid demand purchases [22]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. The estimated output in March 2026 is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,724 tons or 84.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 5,100 tons or 27.88%. The net import of refined nickel in this month was 10,097.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 525.23%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 231,188.825 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133,916 tons or 137.67%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel export volume was 13,296.309 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,370 tons or 21.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3,839 tons or 22.40% [33]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,912 tons to 63,681 tons, including 56,462 tons of futures inventory. The total inventory was 83,746 tons, an increase of 2,397 tons from the previous week [38]. 2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of low - nickel iron decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton; the price of high - nickel iron increased by 10 yuan/nickel to 1,100 yuan/nickel [44]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 21,100 tons in metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the output of low - nickel pig iron was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% [46]. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 101,000 tons or 11.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,000 tons or 0.1%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.1149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 217,200 tons or 24.2% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel [52]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four places) decreased by 25 yuan/ton this week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Output**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that the stainless steel import volume was 145,000 tons, and the export volume was 485,000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons [67]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales of New Energy Vehicles**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively [72]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative output was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6% [75]. 3. Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, the demand in Indonesia provides strong support, and the mine quotations are firm [81]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost support is strong [81]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. The output increases, and the inventory is at a high level [81]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory decreases slightly but is still at a high level, and the consumption is weak [81]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and the output decreases significantly month - on - month [81]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average; the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: The accumulation of smelting inventories and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the bottom. Although the logic of resource - based and strategic reserve narratives still exists, short - term attention should be paid to the change in the conflict situation. In terms of fundamentals, Indonesia's resource management actions may stimulate market sentiment, but the 30% quota revision space mentioned by the APNI Association reduces the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. The mine - end contradiction is real in the first half of the year, pushing up the integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost to 130,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, trading should focus on the current mine - end contradiction, with a strategy of buying on dips near the pyrometallurgical cost. From late March to April, attention should be paid to the supply release of the Philippines and Indonesia's second - round supplementary quota. If the supply is less than expected, nickel prices may remain strong [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is disturbed by macro - risk preferences, and the actual cost center has shifted upward. The shipping problem in the US - Iran conflict has a negative impact on the global economy, reducing market risk preferences. The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel is not significant, but high production schedules pose challenges to consumption verification. The cost logic provides support for stainless steel, and the strategy in March is to go long at low intervals while being vigilant about macro - risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 13, China's social inventory increased by 2,397 tons to 83,746 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory increasing by 2,894 tons to 56,462 tons, spot inventory decreasing by 197 tons to 24,314 tons, and bonded area inventory decreasing by 300 tons to 2,970 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons [4]. - **New Energy**: On March 13, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed monthly by 0, - 2, and 0 to 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. On March 12, the precursor inventory changed monthly by - 0.5 to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory changed monthly by - 0.2 to 7.2 days [4]. - **Nickel - iron and Stainless Steel**: On March 12, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 10% monthly to 131,000 metal tons and decreased by 1% weekly. In February, the SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, increasing by 10% year - on - year and 8% month - on - month. On March 12, the Mysteel stainless steel social inventory was 1.1425 million tons, decreasing by 0.66% weekly. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 706,000 tons, decreasing by 1.14% weekly, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 436,500 tons, increasing by 0.14% weekly [4]. 3.2 Market News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the government will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and collecting royalties [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the significant rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of US restrictions [5]. - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget, with the approved nickel ore production quota between 260 million and 270 million tons [5]. - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [6]. - On February 18, a landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply, suspending mining operations and putting the processing plant on standby for maintenance [6]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities, with a production and sales quota of 12 million tons in the work plan and budget, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [6]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province, and they were fined according to the regulations [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated the 2026 nickel ore production to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of nickel - iron and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [9]. 3.3 Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,930 yuan, with a change of - 1,170 yuan compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,190 yuan, with a change of - 95 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 402,936 lots, and that of the stainless steel main contract was 183,920 lots [12]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 137,950 yuan, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,095 yuan, and the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 14,450 yuan [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range oscillation this week. Although there was intense short - term competition between bulls and bears, the medium - to - long - term outlook remains bullish. The nickel inventory is at a high level in the same period. Nickel ore supply is tight, with domestic trade ore premiums at a high level. The downstream stainless steel de - stocking is slow, and the inventory is still high. The expected peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" is still favored by the market. The estimated operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 129,000 to 150,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel main contract is about 13,600 to 14,800 yuan/ton [32] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract, but no specific analysis is provided in the given content [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: The report shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports, but no detailed analysis is given [8] - **Midstream**: It includes the price of electrolytic nickel, the price of nickel sulfate, the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, but no in - depth analysis is provided [11][13][15] - **Downstream**: It covers the price of stainless steel, stainless steel futures positions, Wuxi stainless steel inventory, the production of power and energy - storage batteries, and the production of new - energy vehicles, but no detailed analysis is given [17][19][22][24][27] 3.3 Future Outlook - In the US, the recent escalation of the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, which may push up inflation expectations again and further reduce the room for interest - rate cuts. The Fed's future policy path will depend on data, especially the evolution of inflation and the employment market. In China, the economy is in the beginning year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", facing a complex situation of structural transformation and both internal and external challenges. The government's economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, and the policy focus is on "expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market" while cultivating new - quality productivity [32]