延续去库趋势， 情绪趋向谨慎 不锈钢周报 2025/08/16 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 | | 交易策略建议 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 策略类型 | 操作建议 | 盈亏比 | 推荐周期 | 核心驱动逻辑 | 推荐等级 | 首次提出时间 | | 单边 | 观望 | | | | | | | 套利 | 观望 | | | | | | 02 期现市场 期现市场 ◆ 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，08月15日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报13100元/吨，环比-0.38%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为925元/镍，环比+0.54%； 废不锈钢均价报9250元/吨，环比+0.54%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价13010 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, with the continuous fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and the stainless - steel market was also boosted, starting a small upward trend, reaching the high point after the unexpected tariff fermentation in early April. However, it is still in the traditional off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The effect of steel mill production cuts on improving the supply - demand contradiction is limited. [11][12] - Policy incentives have stimulated the speculative demand of traders, accelerating inventory digestion. Since downstream inventories are at a low level, market sentiment has improved, consumer enterprises' willingness to replenish inventories has increased, and steel mills' order acceptance in August is good. [11][12] - Looking forward to August, with the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the overall pessimism in the industrial chain has eased. The stocking demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" may be released in advance, and the upstream and downstream may form a virtuous cycle, with steel mills' profits expected to recover. Additionally, the 90 - day postponement of the effective time for the resumption of Sino - US tariffs may boost stainless - steel exports and relieve the pressure on domestic sales. [11][12] - Overall, the market still needs to further observe whether terminal consumption has truly recovered and whether the situation of "insufficient effective demand" can be improved. [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Changes**: On August 8, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.52%. [11][16] - **Supply**: In June, the estimated production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the production of 300 - series cold - rolled steel was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. [11][30] - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June alone, the commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4%. [11][40][43] - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1063 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel this week were 213,100 tons, 657,600 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 37,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.18%, and the unloading volume was 99,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.24%. [11][50][53] - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan/nickel from last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 106 yuan/nickel. [11][60] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: On August 8, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Thursday afternoon was 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.52%. The basis was - 150 yuan/ton. [11][16] - **Market Quotations and Positions**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 250 yuan (+1) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 150 yuan (+51) over the main contract. The open interest on the futures market was 235,870 lots, a month - on - month increase of 15.68%. [20] - **Spread**: The spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was reported at - 50 (+0), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was reported at - 80 (+20). [23] 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. The crude steel production in July was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48%. [27] - **300 - Series Production**: In June, the estimated production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the production of 300 - series cold - rolled steel was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. [30] - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In June, the estimated monthly production of stainless steel in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with no month - on - month change; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons in June, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72%. [33] - **Export Situation**: In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year. [36] 3.4 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June alone, the commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. [40] - **Home Appliances and Fuel Processing**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4%. [43] - **Other Industries**: In June, the production of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. The automobile sales volume in June was 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83%. [46] 3.5 Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1063 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. [50] - **Series Inventory and Port - Related Quantities**: This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 213,100 tons, 657,600 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 37,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.18%, and the unloading volume was 99,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.24%. [53] 3.6 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In June, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% nickel content is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. [57] - **Ferronickel**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan/nickel from last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 106 yuan/nickel. [60] - **Chromium - Related**: This week, the price of chrome ore was quoted at 55 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from last week; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 7,900 yuan/50 - base tons, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons from last week. In June, the production of high - carbon ferrochrome was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53%. [63] - **Production Profit**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 687 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is - 5%. [66]

镍铁回升支撑价格， 社库去化节奏加快 不锈钢周报 2025/07/26 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，07月25日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12900元/吨，环比+0.78%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为910元/镍，环比+0.55%； 废不锈钢均价报9150元/吨，环比+1.67%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价13030元/吨，环比+2.40%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，07月国内冷轧不锈钢排产150.01万吨。06月粗钢产量为287.11万吨，环比-14.59万吨，1-06月累计同比8.11%。据 MYSTEEL样本统计，06月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达142.62万吨，环比-2.40%；07月300系冷轧产量70.61万吨，环比+1.07%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1- ...