价格波动剧烈， 现货货源偏紧 不锈钢周报 2026/01/10 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 图1：不锈钢链现货价格(元/吨）（元/镍点） 图2：不锈钢主力期货合约走势(元/吨） 资料来源：MYSTEEL、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 21000 无锡宁波宝新-304/2B卷板(元/吨) 内蒙古高碳铬铁市场价(元/50基吨) 温州304废钢工业料市场价(元/吨) 山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价(元/镍)(右轴) 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 1月 ...

01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 政策预期偏强， 原料价格出现反弹 不锈钢月报 2026/01/04 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 | 不锈钢基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差（元/吨） 生产利润（元/吨） 供给端 | | 需求端 | 库存 | | 数据 | -140 304.86万吨 | -165 | 314.91万吨 | 100.51万吨 | | 多空评分 | 0 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 简评 | 中性 中性 | 中性 | 中性 | 中性 | | 小结 | 12月底受印尼2026年RKAB计划设定约2.5亿吨镍矿配额消息推动，镍价带动不锈钢价格持续走强。供应方面，钢厂到货 有限，贸易商补库需求有所提升，带动库存进一步下降。成本端，在印尼政策预期支撑下，镍铁价格表现坚挺，现货成 交价回升至920-930元/镍。不过，现货市场 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月23日，中国钢铁工业协会不锈钢分会发布2025年11月及1-11月中国不锈钢及主 要原料进出口海关数据。2025年11月，中国不锈钢材进口量为11.21万吨，环比下降1.20万吨，降幅 10%；同比减少1.81万吨，降幅14%。2025年1-11月，中国不锈钢进口总量为137.42万吨，同比减少 36.53万吨，降幅21%。 2025年11月，国内镍矿进口量333.95吨，环比减少28.69%，同比增加2.92%。其中，从菲律宾进口镍矿 302.13万吨，环比减少30.49%，同比增加4.66%。 2025年1-11月，国内镍矿进口总量4027.04万吨，同比增加10.1%。其中，自菲律宾进口镍矿量3655.54万 吨，同比增加9.66%。 3、1-11月份中国镍铁进口总量1015.33万吨，同比增幅27.2% 1、1-11月份中国不锈钢进口量累计137.42万吨、出口量累计454.62万吨 2025年11月，中国不锈钢材进口量为11.21万吨，环比下降1.20万吨，降幅10%；同比减少1.81万吨，降 幅14%。其中，自印度尼西亚进口量为8.73万吨，环比减少16%，同比减少17% ...

淡季供需紧平衡， 方向有待新驱动 不锈钢周报 2025/12/13 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，12月12日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12800元/吨，环比+0.79%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比+0.00%； 废不锈钢均价报8700元/吨，环比+1.18%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12565元/吨，环比+0.52%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，12月国内冷轧不锈钢排产144.59万吨。11月粗钢产量为304.86万吨，环比-1.59万吨，1-11月累计同比6.48%。据MYSTEEL 样本统计，11月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达140.62万吨，环比-3.00%；12月300系冷轧产量68.81万吨，环比-1.76%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1-10月 ...

成本下移拉低估值， 需求边际有所改善 不锈钢月报 2025/12/05 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，12月05日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报12700元/吨，环比+0.00%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为890元/镍，环比+0.00%； 废不锈钢均价报8550元/吨，环比+0.60%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价12425元/吨，环比+0.12%。 供给：据MYSTEEL，11月国内冷轧不锈钢排产141.26万吨。10月粗钢产量为306.45万吨，环比-0.16万吨，1-10月累计同比6.48%。据MYSTEEL 样本统计，10月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达144.97万吨，环比-2.27%；11月300系冷轧产量70.04万吨，环比-4.16%。 需求：据WIND数据，国内2024年1-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Last week, stainless steel prices rebounded, boosting market confidence. The supply side saw high - level production scheduling by steel mills and a steady increase in spot arrivals. The demand side showed marginal improvement, with downstream enterprises' low - price restocking and traders' inventory - building activities increasing market activity. However, the nickel - iron price on the cost side remained at 880 yuan/nickel point, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing production enthusiasm. Despite the demand recovery, the inventory pressure caused by high supply was still significant, and the inventory clearance speed was slow due to the impact of the futures order delivery cycle. Additionally, the net export volume of stainless steel has been shrinking since the second half of the year, further exacerbating the inventory pressure. Overall, the market lacks clear upward momentum, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [12]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both single - side and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [20]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 65 yuan (- 66) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 135 yuan (- 46) higher than the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 220,005 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.85% [23]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 70 (+10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 145 (+0) [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October [31]. - In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [34]. - It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons in October, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [37]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%. The cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [45]. - In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [48]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons [56]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [59]. 3.6 Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9976 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% [64]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [67]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54% [70]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 844 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.23% [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, the oversupply situation in the stainless - steel market continued, with weak market confidence. Traders and end - users mostly made purchases on demand, lacking the willingness to stock up actively, resulting in dull overall transactions. On the demand side, the real - estate market slump dragged down stainless - steel consumption in construction, decoration, household cookware, etc., leading to slow inventory depletion and a higher - than - usual inventory level, indicating insufficient end - user digestion capacity. On the cost side, abundant raw material imports from Indonesia and other places caused the nickel - iron price to decline, squeezing iron - mill profit margins and weakening cost support for stainless steel. Overall, under the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless - steel prices are expected to continue their downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week. In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year. In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month, and the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about 10 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 32); the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about 210 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 82). The trading volume was 244,050 lots, up 4.01% week - on - week [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was - 80 (+ 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 145 (+ 45) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year [27]. - In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month; the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month [30]. - In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, up 2.33% month - on - month; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month [33]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, down 21.54% month - on - month and 9.71% year - on - year; the cumulative net export volume from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year [40]. - In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2% [43]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, down 16.30% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year; the automobile sales volume was 3.3221 million units, up 2.97% month - on - month and 8.82% year - on - year [46]. 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week [50]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week [53]. 6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, down 23.50% month - on - month and up 11.81% year - on - year. The current nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 56.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.9976 million wet tons, down 0.64% week - on - week [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the chromium - ore quotation was 53 yuan per dry ton, down 1.5 yuan per dry ton week - on - week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan per 50 - base ton, down 100 yuan per 50 - base ton week - on - week. In October, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 825,000 tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line was - 887 yuan/ton, and the profit margin was - 6.55% [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In October, steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [11][12] Summary by Directory Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of the 300-series stainless steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%; the cold-rolled output of the 300-series in September was 0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100.00%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 10-month steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [12] Futures and Spot Market - On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at -20 (+20), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at -50 (+15) [11][16][19][22] Supply Side - In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. In September, the stainless steel net export volume was 298,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.83% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.42%; from January to September, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.50%; in September, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.49% [11][26][29][32] Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 13.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.50%; in September, the automobile sales volume was 3.2264 million units, a month-on-month increase of 12.94% and a year-on-year increase of 14.86% [11][39][42][45] Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92% [11][49][52] Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.51% and a year-on-year increase of 34.43%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.791 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the high-carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,200 yuan/50 base tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high-carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.54%. The current gross profit of the self-produced high-nickel ferronickel production line is -828 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches -6.08% [56][59][62][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless - steel market rebounded last week, but its actual impact on the spot market was limited. Although the crude steel production continued to grow, the actual output was lower than the initial production plan due to some enterprises' production reduction and control strategies. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the terminal demand release is lower than expected, and the market activity remains low. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, with low acceptance of high - priced resources, and most transactions are concentrated on low - priced resources. In terms of raw materials, the prices of high - nickel iron, high - carbon ferrochrome, and molybdenum iron are generally under pressure, weakening the cost support for stainless steel to varying degrees. Under the dual pressure of weakened cost support and a loose supply - demand structure, the stainless - steel market is expected to continue its weak operation in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On October 24, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,810 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.43% [17]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong is about - 60 yuan (- 64) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang is about 40 yuan (- 74) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the contract was 218,446 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 22.13% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was 0 (+ 80), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 10 (+ 135) [23]. 3.3 Supply Side - In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel production was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel production of 300 - series stainless steel in September reached 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the cold - rolled production of 300 - series in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77% [30]. - It is estimated that the monthly stainless - steel production in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons in September, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [33]. - In September, the net export volume of stainless steel was 298,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.42%. The cumulative net export from January to September was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89% [40]. - In September, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 7%, - 2%, - 3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7% [43]. - In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 13.45% and a year - on - year increase of 1.50%; the automobile sales volume in September was 3.2264 million units, a month - on - month increase of 12.94% and a year - on - year increase of 14.86% [46]. 3.5 Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0274 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,553 tons [50]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,800 tons, 649,300 tons, and 195,300 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.89% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 43,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30.66%, and the unloading volume was 98,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.43% [53]. 3.6 Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 34.43%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9791 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.02% [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 935 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 94 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the price of chrome ore was 56 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome production in September was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 661 yuan/ton, and the profit rate is - 4.82% [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September, steel mills maintained stable supply, but the new supply from leading steel mills was limited. The increase in Qing - series hot - rolled resources alleviated the previous tight supply situation. Although the inventory was in the process of depletion, the overall demand performance was relatively dull, and the expectation of the peak season was not fully realized, which put some pressure on the market. Economic data showed that the real estate industry was still weak, and the market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome were running strongly, continuously squeezing the profits of steel mills. Overall, the contradictions between the supply and demand sides of stainless steel were insufficient, and the market expectation remained pessimistic. Looking forward to October, as Indonesia issued the RKAB Ministerial Order again, the approval plan for mines in 2026 is expected to be passed before November 15 this year. If the approval process is delayed, it may further tighten the nickel ore supply pattern in the first quarter of 2026. Whether the demand can improve before the end of the peak season is still the key to whether the stainless - steel market can start [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On October 10, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.5156 million tons, and the crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to September. In August, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in September was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 975,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 172,400/617,100/186,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.99% week - on - week; the floating stock of stainless steel last week was 55,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79%. Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently running at a loss of 74 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The base price was 90 yuan/ton, the production profit was 2.9028 million tons, the demand was - 634, the supply was 3.0357 million tons, and the inventory was 975,900 tons. The multi - empty scores and simple evaluations of all aspects were neutral [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On October 10, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 10 yuan (+22) higher than the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 90 yuan (+82) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the disk was 269,578 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 20 (+25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 90 (+10) [16][19][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In September, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.5156 million tons. The crude steel output in September was 2.9028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to September. In August, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4336 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the cold - rolled output of 300 - series in September was 783,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.21%. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. In August, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.40%. In August, the net export volume of stainless steel was 330,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%; from January to August, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [26][29][32][35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. In August, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%; the automobile sales volume in August was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [39][42][45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 975,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 172,400/617,100/186,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.99% week - on - week; the floating stock of stainless steel last week was 55,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79% [49][52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In August, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.92% and a year - on - year increase of 29.87%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.0937 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel, and the ironworks in Fujian were currently running at a loss of 74 yuan/nickel. Last week, the price of chrome ore was reported at 56.5 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was reported at 8,600 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in September was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 634 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 4.6% [56][59][62][65].