1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the stainless - steel market fluctuations intensified significantly. Driven by the continuous fermentation of the RKAB expectation in Indonesia and the tight spot supply, the futures and spot prices rose synchronously, showing a high - level volatile trend. Towards the end of the month, the significant correction of precious metal prices led to the overall weakness of the non - ferrous metal sector and affected market sentiment. From the supply side, high ferronickel prices at the beginning of the month curbed steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in actual production lower than planned. Although raw material supply recovered at the end of the month, under the influence of steel mills' price - limit policies, agents' shipment rhythms generally slowed down. In terms of demand, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness was weak, with limited acceptance of high - priced resources. Traders mostly actively sold goods to reduce inventory, mainly executed previous orders, and had a weak willingness to actively stock up. In February, steel mills will cut production collectively, and the market generally believes that subsequent supply will gradually tighten, with relatively controllable short - term supply pressure. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals are still supported, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged, with the reference range of the main contract being 13,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On February 06, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract on Friday afternoon was 13,810 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31%. In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the 300 - series cold - rolled output in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96%. From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of the monthly output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were 7/5.7/ - 9.6/ - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel was 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%; on January 30, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,309 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 140,200/632,000/192,700 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month; last week, the floating quantity of stainless - steel at sea was 41,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%, and the unloading quantity was 93,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.86%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a profit of 57 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 140 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 267 yuan/ton. The supply side had a production volume of 2.8284 million tons, the demand side had a volume of 3.108 million tons, and the inventory was 914,200 tons. The long - short scores were 0, +1, 0, 0, +1 respectively. The simple evaluation was neutral, steel mills' production was lower than expected, neutral, neutral, and continuous de - stocking. The conclusion was consistent with the core viewpoints [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On February 05, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract on Friday afternoon was 13,810 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 10 yuan (+526) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 140 yuan (+496) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the contract was 230,210 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21.55%. In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 2 was reported at - 85 (+5), and the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 3 was reported at - 70 (+40) [16][19][22] 3.3 Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the 300 - series cold - rolled output in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96%. It was estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 39.16%. In December, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.13%; the cumulative net export from January to December was 3.1937 million tons, an increase of 8.06% compared with the same period last year [26][29][32] 3.4 Demand Side - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of the monthly output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were 7/5.7/ - 9.6/ - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2%. In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%; in December, the automobile sales volume was 3.2722 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [39][42][45] 3.5 Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel was 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%; on January 30, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,309 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 140,200/632,000/192,700 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month; last week, the floating quantity of stainless - steel at sea was 41,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%, and the unloading quantity was 93,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.86% [49][52] 3.6 Cost Side - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Currently, the quotation of 1.5% nickel ore was 57.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 11.7234 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.58%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a profit of 57 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan per dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan per 50 - base ton. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was 267 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 1.92% [56][59][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 14, the Director - General of the Mineral and Coal Directorate of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia stated that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the mine supply is expected to remain tight. Market optimism has risen, and stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. In the short term, against the backdrop of tight supply, continuous decline in inventory, and significant cost support, the market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, and prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern, with the reference range for the main contract being 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 927,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons. Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On January 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,015 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.28%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.73%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.99% [20] - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 325 yuan (- 24) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 125 yuan (+ 6) over the main contract. The position on the disk was 261,387 lots, a week - on - week increase of 15.20% [23] - In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at 5 (+ 90), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 10 (+ 130) [26] 3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [31] - According to the sample statistics of MYSTEEL, in December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled products was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [34] - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [37] - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; from January to November, the cumulative net export volume was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [40] 4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [45] - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [48] - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; in November, the automobile sales volume was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [51] 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 883,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.13%. It is expected that the inventory will be slightly reduced this week, with an estimated value of 860,000 tons; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 46,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,483 tons [56] - Last week, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 133,300 tons, 602,400 tons, and 191,400 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.00% week - on - week; last week, the floating quantity of stainless steel at sea was 32,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.61%, and the unloading quantity was 103,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.46% [59] 6. Cost Side - According to WIND data, in November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; currently, the quotation of nickel ore with a Ni content of 1.5% is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [64] - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 1,020 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/nickel, and the current profit of iron plants in Fujian was 49 yuan/nickel [67] - Last week, the quotation of chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan/50 - base ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/50 - base ton. In terms of output, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome in December was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [70] - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is 797 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 5.88% [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, the news that Indonesia's 2026 RKAB plan set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons boosted the nickel price and drove the stainless - steel market price to rise. However, on Thursday, the sudden increase of 20,000 tons in the nickel inventory of the London Metal Exchange broke the market's expectation of supply shortage. Coupled with the previous rapid increase in nickel price, which had deviated from the fundamentals and actual transactions, a large number of profit - taking orders left the market, leading to a sharp decline in nickel price and a synchronous correction in stainless - steel futures price. On the spot side, affected by the poor connection between raw material procurement and production, the arrival rhythm of steel mills has slowed down recently. On the demand side, due to the tight supply of steel mills and the low inventory of traders, the demand for restocking and re - allocating goods has been released intensively, and the market has reported quantities actively, but steel mills are still cautious in taking orders. The sharp price fluctuations have intensified the market game, and both buyers and sellers are in a stalemate. In the short term, with solid cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Futures and Spot Market**: On January 9th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.94%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.25%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% [12]. - **Supply**: In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; in January, the output of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 948,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,084 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 139,600/608,600/200,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.35% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 30,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.36%, and the unloading quantity was 90,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 33 yuan/nickel [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - On January 9th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.94%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 955 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.25%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% [18]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about - 360 yuan (- 54) higher than the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about - 260 yuan (- 34) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the futures contract was 226,905 lots, a month - on - month increase of 24.97% [21]. - In terms of the price difference between different months, the price difference between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 85 (+20), and the price difference between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 140 (+55) [24]. 3.3. Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48% [29]. - In December, the expected output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; in January, the output of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96% [32]. - It is estimated that in November, the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cumulative output from January to November reached 4.53 million tons. In November, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56%, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 1.104 million tons [35]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [38]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to November 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [43]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [46]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the sales volume of automobiles in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [49]. 3.5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 948,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,084 tons [54]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 139,600/608,600/200,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.35% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 30,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.36%, and the unloading quantity was 90,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16% [57]. 3.6. Cost Side - In November, the import volume of nickel ore was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Currently, the quoted price of nickel ore with 1.5% nickel content is 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 13.3203 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23% [62]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 960 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 33 yuan/nickel [65]. - Last week, the quoted price of chrome ore was 53.5 yuan/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/dry ton; the quoted price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,200 yuan/50 - base tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons. In December, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 887,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [68]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is 362 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches 2.69% [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan in 2026 setting a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices led stainless steel prices to continue rising. The limited arrival of goods at steel mills and the increasing replenishment demand of traders led to a further decline in inventory. Supported by the expected Indonesian policy, the price of ferronickel remained firm, and the spot transaction price rebounded to 920 - 930 yuan per nickel. However, the spot market showed a differentiated pattern of "active trading but weak end - users". Affected by factors such as seasonal lack of orders and pressure on capital repatriation, end - users were indifferent to price fluctuations. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promoted the rise of raw material prices and accelerated inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, the price may rise further. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions on dips and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Points Summary**: On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in December, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [11]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was - 140 yuan per ton, the production profit was 304,860 tons, the supply was - 165, the demand was 314,910 tons, and the inventory was 1.0051 million tons. The long - short scores were all neutral. The short - term market was supported by policy expectations, and if the nickel ore supply quota was tightened, prices might rise further. It was recommended to consider long positions on dips and monitor policy implementation [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [16]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 79) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 140 yuan (- 129) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk was 191,862 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2.68% [19]. - The spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 2 was - 90 (- 60), and the spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 3 was - 155 (- 65) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48% [26]. - In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76% [29]. - In November, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [32]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [39]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [42]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the automobile sales volume in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons [49]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 13.7647 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [56]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [59]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, with no week - on - week change; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 165 yuan per ton, and the profit margin reached - 1.24% [65].

Group 1: Stainless Steel Import and Export Data - In November 2025, China's stainless steel imports amounted to 112,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons, representing a 10% decline; year-on-year, it decreased by 18,100 tons, a 14% drop [1][2] - From January to November 2025, the total stainless steel imports reached 1,374,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 365,300 tons, marking a 21% decline [2] - The top five regions for stainless steel imports in November accounted for 93.34% of total imports, with Indonesia being the largest supplier at 87,300 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16% and a year-on-year decrease of 17% [2] Group 2: Stainless Steel Export Data - In November 2025, China's stainless steel exports totaled 405,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 46,600 tons, representing a 13% rise; however, year-on-year, it decreased by 35,200 tons, an 8% decline [2][3] - From January to November 2025, total stainless steel exports were 4,546,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45,900 tons, marking a 1% decline [3] - The top 20 regions for stainless steel exports accounted for 80.14% of total exports, with Vietnam receiving 549,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 58,900 tons, representing a 14% rise [3] Group 3: Nickel and Other Raw Material Imports - From January to November 2025, China's nickel ore imports totaled 40,270,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [5] - Nickel iron imports for the same period reached 10,153,300 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [6] - Refined nickel imports amounted to 207,800 tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 163.1% [6] Group 4: Chromium and Manganese Imports - From January to November 2025, chromium ore imports totaled 20,920,900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.46% [7][8] - Chromium iron imports for the same period were 2,330,500 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.49% [9] - Manganese ore imports reached 29,508,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.13% [10] Group 5: Scrap Stainless Steel Imports - From January to November 2025, scrap stainless steel imports totaled 108,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.8% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season with a generally light trading atmosphere. The transaction price of nickel iron at the raw material end has risen slightly, and the market sentiment for price support has increased. The supply - side contraction effect is gradually emerging at the end of the year, with increased maintenance and production cuts by steel mills in December and the usual year - end capacity control, which is expected to further ease the supply pressure. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, meeting market expectations. Overall, the stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range oscillation. There is a lack of clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see. [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend waiting and seeing. [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On December 12, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.79%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,565 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about a discount of 65 yuan (- 44) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about a premium of 35 yuan (+ 34) compared to the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 202,432 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was - 120 (- 30), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was - 185 (- 35). [18][21][24] 3.3. Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in November was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in December was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia in October reached 103,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92%. In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; the cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. [28][31][34][37] 3.4. Demand Side - From January to October in 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in October was + 21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. [41][44][47] 3.5. Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0636 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 60,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,490 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 176,800/662,600/224,100 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.26% week - on - week; the sea - floating volume of stainless steel last week was 61,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64%, and the unloading volume was 68,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.69%. [51][54] 3.6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.5587 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 895 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 101 yuan/nickel. The chromium ore quotation last week was 51.25 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of production, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 511 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reached - 3.84%. [58][61][64][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stainless steel demand has shown marginal improvement compared to October. Cost decline has pushed spot prices to a stage low, stimulating downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices and attracting speculative bottom - fishing funds. These two factors have jointly promoted the warming of the market trading atmosphere and significantly increased trading activity. However, the pressure of high inventory remains significant. The focus of the subsequent market should be on the actual implementation of steel mills' production cuts. If the supply side can be effectively controlled, the production cut intensity can be increased, or positive signals can be released from the policy side, and combined with the further release of downstream low - level replenishment demand, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock and drive the market to a phased turnaround [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Data**: On December 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.60%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.12% [11][16] - **Supply Data**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [11][26][29] - **Demand Data**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in October was +21.2% [11][39][42] - **Inventory Data**: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month; the floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [11][49][52] - **Cost Data**: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [11][59] Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi on December 5th was 12,700 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel (unchanged month - on - month), and the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,550 yuan/ton (+0.60% month - on - month). The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,425 yuan/ton (+0.12% month - on - month) [16] - **Market Quotes and Positions**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong is about - 75 yuan (- 24) higher than the main contract, and that of Wuxi Hongwang is about 75 yuan (- 54) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk is 207,125 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.29% [19] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 is reported as - 95 (- 25), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 is reported as - 170 (- 40) [22] Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 6.48%. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [26][29] - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. In October, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [32] - **Export Data**: In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%; from January to October, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, 65.78% higher than the same period last year [35] Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%; in October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 million square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [39] - **Home Appliances**: In October, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator, household freezer, washing machine, and air - conditioner production were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively [42] - **Other Industries**: In October, the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry was +21.2%. In October, the output of elevators, escalators and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year change of +0.00%; the automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [42][45] Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0803 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,076 tons [49] - **Inventory by Series**: The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 192,000 tons, 664,300 tons, and 224,000 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.73% month - on - month. The floating quantity of stainless steel last week was 62,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and the unloading quantity was 94,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.53% [52] Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. The current quotation of Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.8733 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.83% [56] - **Nickel Iron**: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [59] - **Chromium Ore and Ferrochrome**: The chromium ore quotation last week was 51 yuan/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/50 base tons. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62] - **Production Profit**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 857 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.32% [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Last week, stainless steel prices rebounded, boosting market confidence. The supply side saw high - level production scheduling by steel mills and a steady increase in spot arrivals. The demand side showed marginal improvement, with downstream enterprises' low - price restocking and traders' inventory - building activities increasing market activity. However, the nickel - iron price on the cost side remained at 880 yuan/nickel point, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing production enthusiasm. Despite the demand recovery, the inventory pressure caused by high supply was still significant, and the inventory clearance speed was slow due to the impact of the futures order delivery cycle. Additionally, the net export volume of stainless steel has been shrinking since the second half of the year, further exacerbating the inventory pressure. Overall, the market lacks clear upward momentum, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [12]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both single - side and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [20]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 65 yuan (- 66) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 135 yuan (- 46) higher than the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 220,005 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.85% [23]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 70 (+10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 145 (+0) [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October [31]. - In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [34]. - It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons in October, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [37]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%. The cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [45]. - In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [48]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons [56]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [59]. 3.6 Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9976 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% [64]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [67]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54% [70]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 844 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.23% [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, the oversupply situation in the stainless - steel market continued, with weak market confidence. Traders and end - users mostly made purchases on demand, lacking the willingness to stock up actively, resulting in dull overall transactions. On the demand side, the real - estate market slump dragged down stainless - steel consumption in construction, decoration, household cookware, etc., leading to slow inventory depletion and a higher - than - usual inventory level, indicating insufficient end - user digestion capacity. On the cost side, abundant raw material imports from Indonesia and other places caused the nickel - iron price to decline, squeezing iron - mill profit margins and weakening cost support for stainless steel. Overall, under the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless - steel prices are expected to continue their downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week. In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year. In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month, and the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about 10 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 32); the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about 210 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 82). The trading volume was 244,050 lots, up 4.01% week - on - week [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was - 80 (+ 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 145 (+ 45) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year [27]. - In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month; the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month [30]. - In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, up 2.33% month - on - month; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month [33]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, down 21.54% month - on - month and 9.71% year - on - year; the cumulative net export volume from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year [40]. - In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2% [43]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, down 16.30% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year; the automobile sales volume was 3.3221 million units, up 2.97% month - on - month and 8.82% year - on - year [46]. 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week [50]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week [53]. 6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, down 23.50% month - on - month and up 11.81% year - on - year. The current nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 56.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.9976 million wet tons, down 0.64% week - on - week [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the chromium - ore quotation was 53 yuan per dry ton, down 1.5 yuan per dry ton week - on - week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan per 50 - base ton, down 100 yuan per 50 - base ton week - on - week. In October, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 825,000 tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line was - 887 yuan/ton, and the profit margin was - 6.55% [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In October, steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [11][12] Summary by Directory Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of the 300-series stainless steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%; the cold-rolled output of the 300-series in September was 0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100.00%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 10-month steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [12] Futures and Spot Market - On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at -20 (+20), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at -50 (+15) [11][16][19][22] Supply Side - In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. In September, the stainless steel net export volume was 298,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.83% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.42%; from January to September, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.50%; in September, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.49% [11][26][29][32] Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 13.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.50%; in September, the automobile sales volume was 3.2264 million units, a month-on-month increase of 12.94% and a year-on-year increase of 14.86% [11][39][42][45] Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92% [11][49][52] Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.51% and a year-on-year increase of 34.43%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.791 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the high-carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,200 yuan/50 base tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high-carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.54%. The current gross profit of the self-produced high-nickel ferronickel production line is -828 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches -6.08% [56][59][62][65]