1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the stainless - steel market fluctuations intensified significantly. Driven by the continuous fermentation of the RKAB expectation in Indonesia and the tight spot supply, the futures and spot prices rose synchronously, showing a high - level volatile trend. Towards the end of the month, the significant correction of precious metal prices led to the overall weakness of the non - ferrous metal sector and affected market sentiment. From the supply side, high ferronickel prices at the beginning of the month curbed steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in actual production lower than planned. Although raw material supply recovered at the end of the month, under the influence of steel mills' price - limit policies, agents' shipment rhythms generally slowed down. In terms of demand, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness was weak, with limited acceptance of high - priced resources. Traders mostly actively sold goods to reduce inventory, mainly executed previous orders, and had a weak willingness to actively stock up. In February, steel mills will cut production collectively, and the market generally believes that subsequent supply will gradually tighten, with relatively controllable short - term supply pressure. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals are still supported, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged, with the reference range of the main contract being 13,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On February 06, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract on Friday afternoon was 13,810 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31%. In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the 300 - series cold - rolled output in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96%. From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of the monthly output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were 7/5.7/ - 9.6/ - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2%. The total social inventory of stainless steel was 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%; on January 30, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,309 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 140,200/632,000/192,700 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month; last week, the floating quantity of stainless - steel at sea was 41,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%, and the unloading quantity was 93,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.86%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a profit of 57 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was 140 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 267 yuan/ton. The supply side had a production volume of 2.8284 million tons, the demand side had a volume of 3.108 million tons, and the inventory was 914,200 tons. The long - short scores were 0, +1, 0, 0, +1 respectively. The simple evaluation was neutral, steel mills' production was lower than expected, neutral, neutral, and continuous de - stocking. The conclusion was consistent with the core viewpoints [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - On February 05, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was reported at 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.23%. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract on Friday afternoon was 13,810 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31%. The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 10 yuan (+526) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 140 yuan (+496) higher than the main contract. The trading volume of the contract was 230,210 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21.55%. In terms of the monthly spread, the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 2 was reported at - 85 (+5), and the spread between consecutive 1 and consecutive 3 was reported at - 70 (+40) [16][19][22] 3.3 Supply Side - In January, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4586 million tons. In December, the crude steel output was 2.8284 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,200 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to December was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in December was 1.4043 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%; the 300 - series cold - rolled output in December was 736,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.96%. It was estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in December was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of 39.16%. In December, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.13%; the cumulative net export from January to December was 3.1937 million tons, an increase of 8.06% compared with the same period last year [26][29][32] 3.4 Demand Side - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes of the monthly output of refrigerators/household freezers/washing machines/air conditioners were 7/5.7/ - 9.6/ - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in December was 18.2%. In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32%; in December, the automobile sales volume was 3.2722 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [39][42][45] 3.5 Inventory - The total social inventory of stainless steel was 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%; on January 30, the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,309 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 140,200/632,000/192,700 tons respectively, among which the 300 - series inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month; last week, the floating quantity of stainless - steel at sea was 41,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.31%, and the unloading quantity was 93,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.86% [49][52] 3.6 Cost Side - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Currently, the quotation of 1.5% nickel ore was 57.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 11.7234 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.58%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/nickel, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a profit of 57 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan per dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan per 50 - base ton. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in November was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was 267 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of 1.92% [56][59][65]