丙烯市场供需与成本分析
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丙烯:主力合约6420元/吨,下游开工与利润有变动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 14:20
Core Viewpoint - The propylene market is experiencing fluctuations in multiple indicators, influenced by supply, demand, and cost factors, which will affect future trends [1] Supply Side - Propylene's overall operating rate is at 73%, a decrease of 2% month-on-month [1] - Key production facilities in North China and Shandong are undergoing maintenance, while some facilities in East China are temporarily shut down [1] - The reduction in operating rates and maintenance activities may tighten supply in the short term, but the restart of facilities could alleviate this [1] Demand Side - The high price of propylene is leading to reduced profits in downstream products, resulting in a decline in overall operating rates [1] - Notable decreases in operating rates are observed in PP and phenol ketone due to maintenance, while butanol and propionic acid show increases [1] - Some downstream purchasing enthusiasm is waning, which may suppress the upward potential of propylene prices [1] Cost Factors - OPEC+ is maintaining production increases amidst geopolitical tensions, leading to fluctuations in crude oil prices [1] - External propane prices are strengthening, impacting the cost structure of propylene production [1] Market Strategy - The current strategy is neutral; attention should be paid to the potential for high-level hedging after the restart of main PDH facilities [1] - No recommendations for cross-commodity strategies at this time [1]