期货研究报告|丙烯专题 2025-07-09 丙烯系列报告-丙烯下游需求介绍 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 本篇为丙烯系列报告第三篇，主要介绍丙烯下游需求情况，包括下游消费量、消费增速、 消费结构，以及聚丙烯、环氧丙烷、丁辛醇、丙烯酸、丙烯腈、苯酚、丙酮、环氧氯丙 烷等下游品种，对丙烯下游产业链进行全面解读。 丙烯下游应用广泛，主要用于生产聚丙烯，此外还可合成环氧丙烷、丙烯腈、丙烯酸、 苯酚、丙酮等化学品，主要应用于塑料、医药、农业等领域。 随着中国经济社会高速发展，国内丙烯需求增长强劲，消费量与表 ...

关键词：影响因素、多样化、正丁醇、超预期 【导语】6月份，正丁醇呈现先跌后涨的走势，其中后半月市场走势强劲。期内，一方面供需面支撑环 比改善，另一方面，驱动市场走强的因素趋于多样化，并支撑下旬正丁醇逆势走高。在强供需面逻辑支 撑下，正丁醇高位运行或仍可持续一段时间，但随着利好影响衰减，未来市场遇阻回落可能较大。 6月份以来，国内正丁醇呈现先跌后涨的走势，其中后半月走势较为强劲。至6月25日收盘，山东正丁醇 上涨至6450-6450元/吨，较月初均价上涨200元/吨，较月内最低点上涨275元/吨。月内正丁醇市场走势 较此前预期更显强势，尤其是下半月随着基本面支撑转强，市场震荡上行，并于下旬触及到本轮市场反 弹以来的最高点。这期间，市场信心、供需、成本分别对正丁醇形成不同程度的正向提振。 原油宽幅上涨提振信心，看空情绪减弱 6月份以来，受中东地缘因素影响，月内多数时间原油期货走势强劲，并传导至正丁醇现货层面。虽然 原油期货对正丁醇成本端的影响显现较为滞后，但高油价对市场信心影响明显。尤其是中上旬期间，虽 然多套正丁醇装置陆续重启，但受油价强劲走势对冲，市场看空情绪不高。另外，正丁醇下游不同程度 受到原油上涨带来的 ...

自2024年1月以来，丁辛醇市场价格震荡下行，累计降幅超过40%。生意社数据显示，截至4月23日，山 东地区正丁醇(工业级)价格为6350~6400元(吨价，下同)，较年初下跌9.5%；异辛醇价格为7350~7600 元，均价为7466.67元，较年初下跌4%。 业内认为，二季度丁辛醇市场供需博弈延续，低位震荡或成主基调。其中，丁醇市场预计延续弱势整 理；辛醇市场下行压力或有所缓解，二季度可能呈现先抑后扬走势。不过，中美关税博弈对中国一次性 防护手套产业形成系统性冲击，或引发增塑剂—辛醇产业链的负反馈，对辛醇需求带来压制。 丁醇：成本与需求双重压制 金联创资讯分析师钱芳指出，一季度丁醇市场呈现三大特征：成本与需求双重压制，工厂让利出货成为 常态，下游仅维持逢低刚需补货；行业开工率波动频繁，局部供应变化引发50~100元的价格短期波 动，但难以扭转下行趋势；同比跌幅持续扩大，反映出终端领域需求整体萎缩。 钱芳认为，一季度丁醇市场震荡下行，供需矛盾成为主导价格波动的核心因素。以山东市场为例，价格 从1月初的7025元跌至3月底的6600元附近，累计跌幅超6%。 "进入4月后，辛醇价格再次下滑，中旬价格更是跌破一季 ...

| 证券代码：603867 | 证券简称：新化股份 | 公告编号：2025-011 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113663 | 转债简称：新化转债 | | 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十三 号——化工》有关规定和披露要求，现将浙江新化化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）2024 年年度主要经营数据披露如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 产品大类 | 产量(吨) | 销售数量（吨） | 销售金额（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 脂肪胺 | 127,338.14 | 127,642.31 | 145,269.04 | | 有机溶剂 | 55,236.60 | 55,949.31 | 43,357.53 | | 合成香料 | 24,078.84 | 23,383.18 | 78,986.34 | 注 1： 上述产量、销量为折百数量（下同）。 二、主要产品的价格变动情况（不含税） 浙江新化化工股份有限公司 | 产品大类 | 2023 | 年平均价格 （元/吨） | 2024 | 年平均价格 （元 ...

| 证券代码：603867 | 证券简称：新化股份 | 公告编号：2025-012 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113663 | 转债简称：新化转债 | | 浙江新化化工股份有限公司 2025年第一季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十三 号——化工》有关规定和披露要求，现将浙江新化化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）2025 年第一季度主要经营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品的价格变动情况（不含税） | 产品大类 | 2024 年 1-3 月平 | | 2025 年 1-3 月平 | 变动比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 均价格（元/吨） | | 均价格（元/吨） | | | 脂肪胺 | | 11,750.78 | 11,337.61 | -3.52% | | 有机溶剂 | | 8,341.14 | 6,664.64 | -20.10% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.98 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 148%, reaching 2.03 billion RMB. The revenue for the same period was 29.76 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 27% to 410 million RMB due to substantial inventory impairment losses [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from integrated production and scale advantages, with new capacity gradually coming online, which is anticipated to drive performance growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.76 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.03 billion RMB, with the fourth quarter revenue at 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, but a 27% decline in net profit compared to the previous year [1][3]. Price Trends and Market Conditions - Average prices for various products, including butanol and DMF, declined in 2024 due to increased supply, with most products experiencing price drops [2][3]. - The company’s new projects, particularly in nylon production, are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [2]. Cost Management and Future Prospects - The cost side of coal chemical production showed improvement in the first quarter of 2025, with significant price drops in raw materials like coal [3]. - New projects, including a 400,000-ton organic silicon project, are expected to come online and contribute to future growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 2.0 billion RMB, 2.3 billion RMB, and 2.6 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.07 RMB, 1.22 RMB, and 1.39 RMB [4][6]. - The target price of 14.98 RMB is based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and potential from new projects [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.98 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 148%, reaching 2.03 billion RMB. The revenue for the same period was 29.76 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 27% to 410 million RMB due to substantial inventory impairment losses [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from integrated production and scale advantages, with new capacity gradually coming online, which is anticipated to drive performance growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.76 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.03 billion RMB, with a proposed dividend of 0.35 RMB per share [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 8.18 billion RMB, a 10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 450 million RMB, up 46% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 7.29 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 27% [1][3]. Market Conditions - The average prices for various chemical products, including butanol and DMF, declined in 2024 due to oversupply, impacting revenue from the new materials and basic chemicals segments [2][3]. - The company’s new nylon 6 project and improved capacity utilization contributed to a 27% revenue increase in the new materials segment [2]. Cost Management - The cost side of the coal chemical sector showed improvement in the first quarter of 2025, with significant price drops in raw materials like power coal and lanthanum [3]. - The company has initiated new projects, including a 400,000-ton organic silicon project, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 estimates net profits of 2.0 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.6 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.07, 1.22, and 1.39 RMB [4][6]. - The report assigns a 14x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's integrated advantages and potential from new projects, leading to a target price of 14.98 RMB [4].