1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the US releasing a cease - fire signal, the market's concern about the conflict escalation has cooled, leading to a significant drop in the prices of energy and chemical products. The decline in coal - related prices has also reduced the cost of coal - based olefins, dragging down the price of propylene. From the fundamental perspective of propylene, the supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance. The supply of propylene has tightened again, while the demand side is mainly for low - price rigid replenishment, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for the propylene price before the Middle - East situation shows an obvious easing signal [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene data**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8795 yuan/ton (- 149), the spot price in East China is 9275 yuan/ton (+ 0), the spot price in North China is 8750 yuan/ton (- 20), the basis in East China is 480 yuan/ton (+ 149), the basis in Shandong is - 45 yuan/ton (+ 129), the operating rate is 71% (- 1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 129 US dollars/ton (- 19), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 105 US dollars/ton (+ 1), the import profit is - 1723 yuan/ton (- 68), and the in - plant inventory is 44560 tons (- 1800) [1] - **Propylene downstream data**: The operating rate of PP powder is 22% (- 5.28%), the production profit is - 150 yuan/ton (- 180); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 74% (- 1%), the production profit is 2288 yuan/ton (+ 454); the operating rate of n - butanol is 81% (- 1%), the production profit is 1513 yuan/ton (+ 202); the operating rate of octanol is 89% (+ 1%), the production profit is 892 yuan/ton (+ 214); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 77% (+ 4%), the production profit is 4265 yuan/ton (+ 0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 76% (+ 0%), the production profit is 583 yuan/ton (+ 251); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 87% (- 1%), the production profit is 86 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Price decline reason**: The continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the US releasing a cease - fire signal, the cooling of the market's concern about the conflict escalation, and the decline in coal - related prices reducing the cost of coal - based olefins have led to a significant drop in the prices of energy and chemical products [2] - **Supply situation**: The supply of raw material propane has tightened again, the raw material inventory of upstream enterprises has been continuously consumed, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance. New PDH device maintenance plans have emerged, and some existing PDH devices continue to be shut down. The operating rate of PDH is expected to further decline, and the refinery cracking device has reduced its load, resulting in a tightening of propylene supply [2] - **Demand situation**: The demand side is mainly for low - price rigid replenishment, and the overall market is in a wait - and - see state. Some downstream enterprises have reduced their loads or shut down due to high costs, and it is necessary to pay attention to the transmission of negative feedback on the demand side [2] - **Price outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for the propylene price before the Middle - East situation shows an obvious easing signal [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side strategy**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - **Inter - period strategy**: None - **Inter - variety strategy**: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about the supply of olefin raw materials such as naphtha and propane. The supply - side contraction continues to support the rise in olefin prices. For propylene, the supply is tightening due to the expected decline in PDH and refinery cracking unit operations. Although the demand side is mainly for low - price restocking, there are also cases of production cut due to high costs. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and the price support exists as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not open [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8,944 yuan/ton (-56), the spot price in East China is 9,275 yuan/ton (+300), and in North China is 8,770 yuan/ton (+455). The basis in East China is 331 yuan/ton (+356), and in Shandong is -174 yuan/ton (+511). The propylene operating rate is 71% (-1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 147 US dollars/ton (-22), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is -106 US dollars/ton (+14), the import profit is -1,656 yuan/ton (-206), and the in - plant inventory is 44,560 tons (-1,800) [1]. - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 22% (-5.28%), and the production profit is 30 yuan/ton (-105); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 74% (-1%), and the production profit is 2,288 yuan/ton (+454); the operating rate of n - butanol is 81% (-1%), and the production profit is 1,311 yuan/ton (+143); the operating rate of octanol is 89% (+1%), and the production profit is 678 yuan/ton (-277); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 77% (+4%), and the production profit is 4,265 yuan/ton (-113); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 76% (+0%), and the production profit is 332 yuan/ton (-158); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 87% (-1%), and the production profit is 86 yuan/ton (-115) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified, increasing the expectation of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The supply problem of olefin raw materials has not been alleviated, and the decline in the operating rate of Asian refineries and cracking units supports the rise in olefin prices. For propylene, the supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH unit maintenance. The demand side is mainly for low - price restocking, but there are also production cut cases due to high costs. In the short term, the supply - demand of propylene is tight, and the price support exists [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: None [3] 3.4 Figures and Charts - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and futures contract spreads [6][11][14]. - **Propylene production profit and operating rate**: Covers figures related to the difference between propylene CFR and naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [18][23][34]. - **Propylene downstream profit and operating rate**: Involves figures of production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [37][39][42]. - **Propylene inventory**: Includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with no substantial progress in the US-Iran peace talks. Israel's attacks on Iran have further escalated the situation, causing supply issues for olefin raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and propane, which in turn support the rebound of the futures market [2]. - The supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance. The supply of propylene has tightened due to the shutdown of PDH devices and the reduction of refinery cracking device loads. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices, but some have reduced their loads due to profit issues. Overall, the short - term supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and the price of propylene is still supported before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8851 yuan/ton (+99), the East China spot price of propylene is 9000 yuan/ton (-250), the North China spot price of propylene is 8800 yuan/ton (-185), the East China basis of propylene is 149 yuan/ton (-349), and the Shandong basis of propylene is -51 yuan/ton (-284) [1]. - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, futures 05 - 06 contract spread, 05 - 07 contract spread, and market prices in East, Shandong, and South China [5][6][11][16][18]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 71% (-1%), the propylene CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 282 US dollars/ton (+136), the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is -116 US dollars/ton (+85), and the import profit is -1285 yuan/ton (-430) [1]. - Relevant figures include propylene CFR - naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, South Korea FOB - China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][26][30][32][35]. 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 22% (-5.61%), production profit is -250 yuan/ton (+135); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), production profit is 2288 yuan/ton (+454); n - butanol capacity utilization is 81% (-1%), production profit is 1007 yuan/ton (-185); octanol capacity utilization is 89% (+1%), production profit is 845 yuan/ton (-178); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 77% (+4%), production profit is 4360 yuan/ton (+178); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 76% (+0%), production profit is 390 yuan/ton (+167); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 87% (-1%), production profit is 76 yuan/ton (+150) [1]. - Relevant figures include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][39][41][46][53][54][57][61]. 4. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 44560 tons (-1800) [1]. - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][64]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current Iran situation is a crucial factor influencing the prices of olefin products. The market is closely watching the progress of the US - Iran peace talks. As the US has set harsh conditions and Iran has not accepted them, the situation remains in a "fighting while talking" stage. After the price of propylene declined, it entered a consolidation phase. From the fundamental perspective of propylene, the supply of raw - material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH unit maintenance. The supply of propylene is expected to tighten further. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices, but some have reduced their production due to profit issues. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for its price before the Strait of Hormuz is open to navigation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the price difference between the propylene futures 05 - 06 contracts, the price difference between the propylene 05 - 07 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [6][11][14] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [20][23][27] III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [33][34][35] IV. Propylene Inventory - The report shows the in - plant inventory of propylene and the in - plant inventory of PP powder [56][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current situation in Iran remains a crucial factor influencing the prices of olefin products. On the evening of March 23, news of US - Iran peace talks emerged, but Iran denied having negotiations. Pakistan offered to host the talks, but there is no sign of Iranian key figures attending. The negotiation progress is expected to be difficult, and the subsequent development of the situation should be closely monitored [3] - From the perspective of the current propylene fundamentals, the supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH unit maintenance. PDH units in Shandong are starting to shut down, and the PDH operating rate is expected to decline further. The supply of propylene has tightened again. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices, but some have reduced their loads due to profit issues. The short - term supply - demand of propylene remains tight, and price support exists before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to propylene basis structure, including the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, futures 05 - 06 contract spread, 05 - 07 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [7][12][17][19] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures show the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [22][26][29][30][33] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [37][38][39][48][54][55][58][62] 4. Propylene Inventory - Figures display the propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the Iran situation and the non - opening of the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about energy supply disruptions, pushing up chemical prices [2] - On the supply side, the supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance and reducing the supply of propylene. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices, but some have reduced production due to profit issues. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and price support exists before the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation [2] - The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long on hedging on the single - side, and there is no recommendation for cross - period and cross - variety operations [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 9859 yuan/ton (+1019), the East China spot price of propylene is 9300 yuan/ton (+650), the North China spot price of propylene is 9075 yuan/ton (+495), the East China basis of propylene is - 559 yuan/ton (-369), and the Shandong basis of propylene is - 784 yuan/ton (-524) [1] - Figures related to this part include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 05 - 06 contract spread, 05 - 07 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][12][13][16] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 71% (+0%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 60 dollars/ton (+85), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 168 dollars/ton (-67), and the import profit is - 1225 yuan/ton (-532) [1] - Figures related to this part include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][19][23][26][27][30] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 27% (-4.13%), production profit is - 125 yuan/ton (+305); epoxy propane operating rate is 76% (-1%), production profit is 31 yuan/ton (-368); n - butanol operating rate is 83% (-2%), production profit is 1262 yuan/ton (+294); octanol operating rate is 88% (-3%), production profit is 758 yuan/ton (+144); acrylic acid operating rate is 72% (-5%), production profit is 4609 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile operating rate is 75% (+1%), production profit is - 16 yuan/ton (+15); phenol - acetone operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is 16 yuan/ton (+408) [1] - Figures related to this part include the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][36][37][42][49][50][53][57] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The on - site inventory of propylene is 46360 tons (+2100), and the figures related to this part include propylene on - site inventory and PP powder on - site inventory [1][5][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The attack on Middle - East energy facilities has pushed up the price of propylene. The main driver of the rise in olefins is the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, which has increased concerns about raw material supply and led to an expected contraction in the olefin supply. In the short term, the supply - demand of propylene remains tight, and the price is supported as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not open to navigation [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8949 yuan/ton (+636), the East China spot price is 8650 yuan/ton (+350), the North China spot price is 8525 yuan/ton (+480), the East China basis is - 299 yuan/ton (-286), the Shandong basis is - 424 yuan/ton (-156), the operating rate is 71% (+0%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 51 US dollars/ton (-7), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 86 US dollars/ton (-11), the import profit is - 639 yuan/ton (+90), and the in - plant inventory is 46360 tons (+2100) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 27% (-4.13%), and the production profit is - 175 yuan/ton (-80); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 76% (-1%), and the production profit is 31 yuan/ton (-368); the operating rate of n - butanol is 83% (-2%), and the production profit is 728 yuan/ton (-222); the operating rate of octanol is 88% (-3%), and the production profit is 554 yuan/ton (-96); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 72% (-5%), and the production profit is 4609 yuan/ton (-250); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 75% (+1%), and the production profit is - 330 yuan/ton (-350); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 87% (+1%), and the production profit is - 392 yuan/ton (-150) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The attack on energy facilities in the Middle East has led to concerns about energy supply interruption in the international market. The prices of crude oil and LPG have risen significantly, further driving up the prices of chemical products. The supply of propylene raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance. The demand side has been boosted by the expected reduction in propylene supply, but the weakening of the rigid demand for propylene due to the shrinking profit of some downstream products needs to be considered. In the short term, the supply - demand of propylene is still tight, and the price is supported [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: None [3] 3.4 Figures and Data Sources - **Propylene basis structure**: Figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, etc., with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][6][7][13][15][16] - **Propylene production profit and operating rate**: Figures cover the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production profit, etc., with data sources mainly from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][22][25][30][31][34] - **Propylene downstream profit and operating rate**: Figures involve the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, etc., with data sources from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][39][40][41][50][55][58][62][63] - **Propylene inventory**: Figures are about propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory, with data sources from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][65][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation in Iran remains volatile, and the intensification of the Middle - East war has led to a rise in international oil prices, providing strong support for chemical products. The market logic for propylene lies in concerns about raw material supply due to geopolitical factors and the expectation of supply contraction, which supports olefin prices. The supply of raw material propane is tight, PDH device profits are deeply in the red, and domestic PDH devices are undergoing centralized maintenance. Propylene supply is expected to tighten further. On the demand side, downstream industries mainly conduct rigid restocking at low prices, and their purchasing is improving. In the short term, the propylene supply - demand situation remains tight, and price support exists as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not open for navigation [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8313 yuan/ton (-97), the spot price in East China is 8300 yuan/ton (+60), and in North China is 8045 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in East China is -13 yuan/ton (+157), and in Shandong is -268 yuan/ton (+117). The propylene operating rate is 71% (-2%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 58 dollars/ton (+1), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is -75 dollars/ton (-44), the import profit is -729 yuan/ton (+54), and the in - plant inventory is 44260 tons (-380) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 31% (+3.98%), and the production profit is -95 yuan/ton (-20); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 77% (-3%), and the production profit is 52 yuan/ton (+270); the operating rate of n - butanol is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 950 yuan/ton (-63); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-4%), and the production profit is 650 yuan/ton (+136); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 78% (-2%), and the production profit is 4858 yuan/ton (-42); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 74% (-1%), and the production profit is 20 yuan/ton (-21); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 87% (-2%), and the production profit is -242 yuan/ton (-50) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The tense situation in Iran has led to a rise in international oil prices, providing strong support for chemical products. The propylene market is affected by concerns about raw material supply and supply contraction. The supply of propane is tight, PDH device profits are poor, and domestic PDH devices are being maintained, leading to a further expected reduction in propylene supply. Downstream industries are restocking rigidly at low prices, and their purchasing is improving. In the short term, the propylene supply - demand situation is tight, and price support exists [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: None [3] 3.4 Figures and Tables - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and futures contract spreads [5] - **Propylene production profit and operating rate**: Covers figures related to production profit and operating rate of different propylene production methods, such as PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking [5] - **Propylene downstream profit and operating rate**: Involves figures of production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the propylene market cooled yesterday, but the main theme of geopolitical concerns over raw material supply and intensified supply - side contraction expectations continue to support olefin prices [2] - Currently, the supply of raw material propane is tight, PDH device profits are deeply in the red, and domestic PDH devices are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The supply of propylene is expected to tighten again. On the demand side, downstream buyers mainly conduct rigid restocking at low prices, and the restocking sentiment is becoming more cautious. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for prices before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the propylene main contract at 8410 yuan/ton (-140), the East China spot price of propylene at 8240 yuan/ton (-110), the North China spot price at 8025 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis at -170 yuan/ton (+30), and the Shandong basis at -385 yuan/ton (+140) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 71% (-2%). The profit of PDH production is in a deep loss, and the PDH capacity utilization is expected to decline further due to concentrated maintenance and some devices reducing their loads [1][2] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 31% (+3.98%), with a production profit of -75 yuan/ton (-300); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 77% (-3%), with a production profit of 52 yuan/ton (+270); n - butanol capacity utilization is 85% (-2%), with a production profit of 1013 yuan/ton (-125); octanol capacity utilization is 91% (-4%), with a production profit of 514 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 78% (-2%), with a production profit of 4900 yuan/ton (+327); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), with a production profit of 41 yuan/ton (-55); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 87% (-2%), with a production profit of -192 yuan/ton (-872) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene factory inventory is 44260 tons (-380) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main reason for the rise in the propylene market is the concern about raw material supply due to geopolitical issues and the intensified expectation of supply contraction, which drives up the prices of olefins. The current low navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the difficulty in reaching an agreement between the US and Iran, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East provide strong support for chemical products. The supply of raw material propane is tight, the profit of PDH plants is deeply in the red, and domestic PDH plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The supply of propylene is expected to tighten further. On the demand side, downstream buyers are replenishing stocks at low prices, and the demand for upstream concessions has gradually recovered. In the short term, the supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and the price support persists before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8,550 yuan/ton (+208), the spot price in East China is 8,350 yuan/ton (+0), the spot price in North China is 8,025 yuan/ton (+25), the basis in East China is -200 yuan/ton (-208), the basis in Shandong is -525 yuan/ton (-183), the operating rate is 71% (-2%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 65 US dollars/ton (-28), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is -9 US dollars/ton (+23), the import profit is -869 yuan/ton (-448), and the in-factory inventory is 44,260 tons (-380) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 31% (+3.98%), and the production profit is 225 yuan/ton (+325); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 77% (-3%), and the production profit is 52 yuan/ton (+270); the operating rate of n-butanol is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 1,138 yuan/ton (-9); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-4%), and the production profit is 514 yuan/ton (+18); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 78% (-2%), and the production profit is 4,573 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 74% (-1%), and the production profit is 146 yuan/ton (-171); the operating rate of phenol-ketone is 87% (-2%), and the production profit is 680 yuan/ton (+75) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The main logic for the rise in the propylene market is the concern about raw material supply due to geopolitical issues and the intensified expectation of supply contraction, which drives up the prices of olefins. Currently, the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely low, the US and Iran are still unable to reach an agreement, and the conflict in the Middle East continues, providing strong support for chemical products. From the perspective of the propylene fundamentals, the supply of raw material propane is tight, the profit of PDH plants is deeply in the red, and domestic PDH plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The operating rate of PDH is expected to decline further, and the supply of propylene is expected to tighten again. On the demand side, downstream buyers are replenishing stocks at low prices, and the demand for upstream concessions has gradually recovered. In the short term, the supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and the price support persists before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: None [3]