国际地缘冲突扰动仍存，国际油价偏强，带动丙烷跟涨，丙烯成本端抬升，叠加供需基本面支撑尚可，带动丙烯 价格偏强整理。具体看供应端，辽宁金发、利华益维远 PDH 装置临时停车后重启，中景二期装置重启、三期装置 检修，巨正源二期、金能二期PDH延续检修，供应端小幅缩量提供价格支撑，仍需关注当前PDH利润压力下主要 PDH装置实际回归预期。需求端，节后部分下游开工逐步补库备货，下游刚需支撑仍存，但考虑丙烯价格高位下 游成本承压显著，利润压缩后需求跟进或承压：PP端，伴随丙烯-PP粉价差继续收窄，外采型PP粉工厂高价采买意 愿偏低，部分装置降负荷或停工运行，粉料采购支撑有所回落。PO端利润亦有所压缩，宏信丙烯酸、民祥 PO 等 装置节中停车后尚未复工；丁辛醇利润尚可，节后补库意愿较强，开工负荷略有下降。成本端地缘局势扰动仍存， 国际油价有所小幅回落，原料外盘丙烷延续上涨，短期丙烯成本端支撑抬升明显，关注节后主要下游补库节奏， 后期主要驱动仍在于成本端原油、丙烷走势、主要PDH装置检修动态以及下游需求在成本压力下的开工跟进情况。 策略 丙烯日报 | 2026-02-27 下游刚需支撑，成本端主导波动 市场要闻与重要数据 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-02-26 成本端提供支撑，关注下游复工补库节奏 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6322元/吨（-22），丙烯华东现货价6550元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6525元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差228元/吨（+22），丙烯山东基差203元/吨（+22）。丙烯开工率73%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR222美元/吨（+1），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR90美元/吨（+8），进口利润-345元/吨（+38），厂内库存45170吨（+1840）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率22%（-3.94%），生产利润-270元/吨（+5）；环氧丙烷开工率80%（+8%），生产利润-2 元/吨（+140）；正丁醇开工率88%（+2%），生产利润393元/吨（+0）；辛醇开工率99%（+4%），生产利润-70元/吨 （+0）；丙烯酸开工率86%（+2%），生产利润300元/吨（+100）；丙烯腈开工率75%（+3%），生产利润-1246元/吨 （+98）；酚酮开工率89%（+0%），生产利润-834元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 国际地缘冲突扰动仍存，国际油价持续上行，带动丙 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support for propylene has increased, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream industries after the holiday. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly, but the actual return of major PDH plants under the current profit pressure needs to be monitored. The demand may face pressure due to high propylene prices and compressed profits. The cost side is strongly supported by the rising international oil prices and propane prices. The future trends will be mainly driven by the cost of crude oil and propane, the maintenance of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production follow - up under cost pressure [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, the 03 - 04 contract spread, the PL03 - 05 contract spread, and the market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [7][9][16]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [22][27][30]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - This part covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][47]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - It includes the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [63][64]. 4. Market News and Important Data 4.1 Propylene - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6344 yuan/ton (+226), the East China spot price is 6550 yuan/ton (+120), the North China spot price is 6525 yuan/ton (+80), the East China basis is 206 yuan/ton (-106), the Shandong basis is 181 yuan/ton (-146), the capacity utilization is 73% (+0%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 221 US dollars/ton (-10), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 81 US dollars/ton (-3), the import profit is - 383 yuan/ton (+5), and the in - plant inventory is 45170 tons (+1840) [2]. 4.2 Propylene Downstream - The capacity utilization of PP powder is 22% (-3.94%), and the production profit is - 275 yuan/ton (-30); the capacity utilization of propylene oxide is 80% (+8%), and the production profit is - 2 yuan/ton (+140); the capacity utilization of n - butanol is 88% (+2%), and the production profit is 393 yuan/ton (+151); the capacity utilization of octanol is 99% (+4%), and the production profit is - 70 yuan/ton (-58); the capacity utilization of acrylic acid is 86% (+2%), and the production profit is 200 yuan/ton (-35); the capacity utilization of acrylonitrile is 75% (+3%), and the production profit is - 1344 yuan/ton (-92); the capacity utilization of phenol - acetone is 89% (+0%), and the production profit is - 834 yuan/ton (-118) [2]. 5. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall downstream start - up of propylene increased month - on - month. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand has a rigid support but may be limited due to cost pressure. The cost side is volatile, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost end and downstream demand [1][2] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6225 yuan/ton (-47), the East China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6445 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis is 205 yuan/ton (+47), and the Shandong basis is 220 yuan/ton (+47) [1] - Figures related to this section include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 03 - 04 contract spread, PL03 - 05 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][15] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene production capacity utilization rate is 73% (+1%), the China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 208 US dollars/ton (-5), and the import profit is - 387 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Figures related to this section include China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization rate, South Korea FOB - China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][31] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder production capacity utilization rate is 26% (-5.74%) with a production profit of - 245 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane production capacity utilization rate is 71% (+1%) with a production profit of - 352 yuan/ton (+20); n - butanol production capacity utilization rate is 86% (+1%) with a production profit of 242 yuan/ton (-180); octanol production capacity utilization rate is 95% (+4%) with a production profit of 88 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid production capacity utilization rate is 84% (+2%) with a production profit of 235 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile production capacity utilization rate is 72% (+3%) with a production profit of - 1252 yuan/ton (+0); phenol - acetone production capacity utilization rate is 89% (+3%) with a production profit of - 716 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Figures related to this section include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][38][53] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 43330 tons (+2860) [1] - Figures related to this section include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side of propylene has strong support, and the market performance is firm. The supply of propylene is expected to have a slight increase, while the demand follow - up may be limited due to high prices. The future trend mainly depends on the cost side and downstream demand. The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period and inter - variety trading [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene main contract closing price is 6272 yuan/ton (+48), propylene East China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+0), propylene North China spot price is 6445 yuan/ton (+5), propylene East China basis is 158 yuan/ton (-48), and propylene Shandong basis is 173 yuan/ton (-43) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 72% (+1%), China propylene CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 213 US dollars/ton (-15), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 76 US dollars/ton (-8), and import profit is - 385 yuan/ton (-49) [1] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 31% (-0.61%), production profit is - 245 yuan/ton (-5); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 70% (-3%), production profit is - 783 yuan/ton (-328); n - butanol capacity utilization is 85% (-2%), production profit is 422 yuan/ton (-53); octanol capacity utilization is 91% (+0%), production profit is 88 yuan/ton (-203); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 82% (-2%), production profit is 235 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 69% (+0%), production profit is - 1252 yuan/ton (-55); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 86% (-2%), production profit is - 716 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Propylene plant inventory is 40470 tons (-2320) [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for propylene remains strong, and downstream demand is maintained by rigid needs [1] - On the supply side, the restart of Wanhua Penglai's PDH unit is expected, but the actual supply increase may be slow due to the rising propane price and pressured PDH profits. The supply is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, downstream rigid demand provides support, but the demand may be limited as propylene prices rise. The main drivers in the future are the trends of crude oil and propane in the cost - end, the maintenance status of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production resumption under cost pressure [2] - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, due to high geopolitical uncertainties and acceptable supply - demand support, propylene prices may fluctuate and strengthen following the cost side. No strategies are provided for inter - period and cross - variety trading [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, the spread between 03 - 04 contracts, the spread between PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices in East, Shandong, and South China [1][5][11][13][15] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [19][22][26][29][32] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][36][37][44][50][53][57][58] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Includes propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [60][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of propylene are still supported, but attention should be paid to the cost - side fluctuations. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, the downstream rigid demand continues to support, but the demand follow - up may be limited after the profit is compressed. The cost - side fluctuations are intensifying, and the future main drivers lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants, and the start - up follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure [1][2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the single - side trading. There is no suggestion for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the spread between the 03 - 04 contracts of propylene, the spread between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [6][8][15] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [21][23][29] III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - The report shows figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][49] IV. Propylene Inventory - Figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory are presented [66]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some PDH units are expected to restart, and downstream demand is following up moderately. The main drivers for propylene in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance status of major PDH units, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure. [1][2] - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading due to high short - term geopolitical uncertainties and increased cost - side fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6205 yuan/ton (-148), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6440 yuan/ton (+10). The East China basis is 285 yuan/ton (+148), and the Shandong basis is 235 yuan/ton (+158) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene's operating rate is 72% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 237 US dollars/ton (-15), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-12), and the import profit is - 437 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder's operating rate is 31% (-0.61%), and the production profit is - 240 yuan/ton (-10); epoxy propane's operating rate is 70% (-3%), and the production profit is - 783 yuan/ton (-328); n - butanol's operating rate is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 845 yuan/ton (-106); octanol's operating rate is 91% (+0%), and the production profit is 941 yuan/ton (-107); acrylic acid's operating rate is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile's operating rate is 69% (+0%), and the production profit is - 917 yuan/ton (-60); phenol - acetone's operating rate is 86% (-2%), and the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 40,470 tons (-2,320) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - side disturbances in the propylene market have intensified, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side. The main drivers in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure [1][2] - The supply of propylene has limited growth, with some PDH plants under maintenance and some restarted but not fully loaded. Downstream demand has rigid support, but as propylene prices rise, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The cost side has increased volatility [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6353 yuan/ton (+124), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is 137 yuan/ton (-124), the Shandong basis is 77 yuan/ton (-114), the operating rate is 70% (-1%), the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha is 251 US dollars/ton (-2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 110 US dollars/ton (+4), the import profit is - 442 yuan/ton (-53), and the in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 32% (+1.29%), the production profit is - 230 yuan/ton (+40); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 73% (+0%), the production profit is - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (-1%), the production profit is 951 yuan/ton (-7); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-5%), the production profit is 1048 yuan/ton (-58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 84% (+3%), the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 69% (-6%), the production profit is - 857 yuan/ton (-107); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+3%), the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: Some PDH plants such as Juzhengyuan Phase II, Jinneng Phase II, and Zhongjing continue to be under maintenance. Some plants have restarted but the supply increase of propylene is still limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants in the later stage [2] - **Demand side**: Downstream rigid demand support continues. However, as propylene prices reach high levels, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The operating rates of downstream industries show mixed trends [2] - **Cost side**: International oil prices have rebounded and then fluctuated, and the external propane market has also rebounded. The cost side of propylene has increased volatility in the short term [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Inter - period**: No strategy - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot performance of propylene remains strong, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream demand. The supply increment of propylene is still limited due to the ongoing maintenance of some PDH plants and the slow load - increase of restarted plants. Downstream demand is supported by rigid demand, but high propylene prices may compress downstream profits and limit demand follow - up. The cost support for propylene is gradually weakening, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost of crude oil and propane and the maintenance of major PDH plants. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6,229 yuan/ton (+107). The East China spot price of propylene is 6,490 yuan/ton (-50), and the North China spot price is 6,420 yuan/ton (+30). The East China basis of propylene is 261 yuan/ton (-157), and the Shandong basis is 191 yuan/ton (-77). The 03 - 04 contract spread and PL03 - 05 contract spread are also mentioned in the report [1][6][8] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 70% (-1%). The difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 254 US dollars/ton (+15). The production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking methods, as well as the corresponding capacity utilization rates, are presented. The import profit of propylene is - 389 yuan/ton (+5) [1][21][24] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 280 yuan/ton (-90). Epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates and production profits of n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are also provided [1][37][38] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810), and the PP powder in - plant inventory is also included in the report [1][63]