丙烯日报 | 2025-10-10 丙烷跌价明显，成本端拖累丙烯走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 单边：中性； 跨期：PL01-02逢高反套； 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动；上游装置检修动态；外盘丙烷价格波动 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6210元/吨（-110），丙烯华东现货价6290元/吨（-10），丙烯华北现货价6495元/吨 （+90），丙烯华东基差80元/吨（+100），丙烯华北基差285元/吨（+200）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR- 日本石脑油CFR201美元/吨（+2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR147美元/吨（+60），进口利润-381元/吨（-25），厂内库存 44910吨（+2000）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率39%（+2.01%），生产利润-210元/吨（-175）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（+5%），生产利润 -344元/吨（-115）；正丁醇开工率88%（+1%），生产利润-289元/吨（-206）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润-98 元/吨（-14）；丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润1034元/吨（+107）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-82 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-09-30 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6365元/吨（+0），丙烯华东现货价6325元/吨（-25），丙烯华北现货价6435元/吨（-15）， 丙烯华东基差-40元/吨（-25），丙烯华北基差70元/吨（-40）。丙烯开工率76%（+2%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR182美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR88美元/吨（-10），进口利润-388元/吨（+61），厂内库存42910吨（+6560）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率35%（+1.46%），生产利润-65元/吨（+15）；环氧丙烷开工率70%（-2%），生产利润-366 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润-2元/吨（+9）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润-5元/吨（+61）； 丙烯酸开工率77%（-2%），生产利润909元/吨（+18）；丙烯腈开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-642元/吨（-17）；酚 酮开工率78%（+7%），生产利润-520元/吨（-200）。 市场分析 上游装置重启预期以及下游需求跟进不足，驱动近期丙烯现货偏弱运行，盘面亦低位震荡。供需基本面看，供应 端， ...

丙烯周报 | 2025-09-28 主力PDH装置逐步回归，丙烯偏弱运行 市场要闻与重要数据 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6365元/吨（-7），丙烯华东现货价6350元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6450元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差-15元/吨（+27），丙烯华北基差110元/吨（-3）。丙烯开工率76%（+2%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR182美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR88美元/吨（-10），进口利润-388元/吨（+61），厂内库存42910吨（+6560）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率36%（+1.91%），生产利润-115元/吨（+10）；环氧丙烷开工率70%（-2%），生产利润-366 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润24元/吨（+7）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润16元/吨（-43）； 丙烯酸开工率77%（-2%），生产利润892元/吨（-14）；丙烯腈开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-625元/吨（-11）；酚酮 开工率78%（+7%），生产利润-320元/吨 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-09-26 丙烯供应回升，但下游备货需求仍欠佳 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6372元/吨（+15），丙烯华东现货价6330元/吨（-20），丙烯华北现货价6485元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差-42元/吨（-35），丙烯华北基差113元/吨（-15）。丙烯开工率76%（+2%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR189美元/吨（-9），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR91美元/吨（-2），进口利润-409元/吨（-1），厂内库存36350吨（+4640）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率36%（+1.91%），生产利润-125元/吨（+0）；环氧丙烷开工率70%（-2%），生产利润-366 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润17元/吨（+0）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润59元/吨（+0）； 丙烯酸开工率77%（-2%），生产利润906元/吨（+39）；丙烯腈开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-624元/吨（+0）；酚酮 开工率78%（+7%），生产利润-320元/吨（-124）。 市场分析 供应端，上游装置重启带动开工上升，山东两套主力PDH装 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; for cross - period, after maintenance returns, focus on PL01 - 02 short - spread trading opportunities at high levels; no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of propylene remains relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and the increase in new production capacity. The demand is supported at the bottom in the short term but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost side has support due to geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of international oil prices and external propane prices [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][8][10] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It shows data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][25][30] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes data on the price differences between South Korea's FOB, Japan's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, as well as propylene import profit [34][38] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [41][43][46][55][57][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - It shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the short - spread of PL01 - 02 when it rises to a high level; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply - demand support for propylene has weakened, and the weak trend of oil prices at the cost end has led to a weak operation of propylene. The supply pressure remains large due to the restart of upstream devices and the expected restart of major PDH devices, as well as the increased production of new capacities. The demand is mainly driven by short - term bottom support from pre - holiday stocking by downstream factories, but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost - end support has weakened as international oil prices have rebounded slightly but remain weak, and the price of external propane is relatively firm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][22][24][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [32][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures include the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, the production profit and operating rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [39][41][44][52][55][57][59] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures are propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply - demand support for propylene has weakened, and the weak trend of oil prices at the cost end has led to a weak operation of propylene. The supply pressure is still relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and new production capacity. The demand is mainly driven by short - term pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream factories, but it is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost - end support has also weakened [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It involves figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core View - On the supply side, the 650,000 - ton naphtha cracking new device of Yulong Petrochemical is planned to be put into production, and the PDH of Hebei Haiwei restarts. The propylene start - up rate increases month - on - month, and the supply is expected to recover. On the demand side, the spread between PP powder and propylene continues to shrink, and the profit is difficult to repair. Some downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens due to cost pressure, but the pre - holiday replenishment demand may drive short - term demand support. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the oil price is under pressure, the price of external propane is adjusted, and the cost support is weakened [2] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - The figures involved are the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] II. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][30] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The figures involved are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [41][43][54] V. Propylene Inventory - The figures involved are propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread after the restart of the main PDH [3] - Cross - period: After the restart of the main PDH, focus on the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - On the supply side, two PDH units of Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei restarted and increased production. There is still a load reduction at Binhua, the PDH unit of Qingdao Jinneng continues to be under maintenance, Shandong Zhenhua is expected to restart in the short term, and the PDH units of Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfa in the East China region continue to be shut down [2] - On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream are greatly compressed, and the overall start - up rate has decreased month - on - month. Among them, the start - up rate of PP has decreased significantly, the price difference between PP and propylene has narrowed significantly, and the start - up of powder materials is difficult to recover. Due to the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, the start - up of phenol - acetone has also decreased significantly. The PO unit of Qixiangtengda is shut down for maintenance, and the start - up of propylene oxide is expected to decline. The profit of butanol and octanol is good, and the start - up rate continues to rise. After the restart of the Wanhua acrylic acid unit, the start - up rate has the largest increase. Downstream purchases at low prices, and the demand support has improved, but the downstream cost pressure has not been relieved, which may suppress the upward space of propylene [2] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the center of oil prices has rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has continued to strengthen, so the cost side still has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6462 yuan/ton (+17), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6475 yuan/ton (+25), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6615 yuan/ton (+65), the basis of propylene in East China is 13 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis of propylene in North China is 153 yuan/ton (+48) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of propylene is 73% (-2%), the spread between Chinese propylene CFR and Japanese naphtha CFR is 200 US dollars/ton (+4), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 92 US dollars/ton (+0) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is - 395 yuan/ton (-115) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of PP powder is 33% (-4.04%), and the production profit is - 205 yuan/ton (-65) [1] - The start - up rate of propylene oxide is 74% (+0%), and the production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49) [1] - The start - up rate of n - butanol is 87% (+1%), and the production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (-46) [1] - The start - up rate of octanol is 96% (+1%), and the production profit is 15 yuan/ton (-54) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylic acid is 74% (+5%), and the production profit is 603 yuan/ton (+68) [1] - The start - up rate of acrylonitrile is 72% (-1%), and the production profit is - 505 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - The start - up rate of phenol - acetone is 71% (+2%), and the production profit is - 247 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to single - side investment, and suggests paying attention to the PL01 - 02 high - price reverse arbitrage after the restart of the main PDH for inter - period investment. There is no suggestion for cross - variety investment [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the propylene spot price to decline. There are still some units with reduced load or under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall start - up rate has declined month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may limit the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene main contract closing price is 6445 yuan/ton (+3), the propylene East China spot price is 6450 yuan/ton (-125), the propylene North China spot price is 6550 yuan/ton (-150), the propylene East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (-128), and the propylene North China basis is 105 yuan/ton (-153) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 197 US dollars/ton (-10), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 92 US dollars/ton (-2), and the import profit is - 280 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - No specific profit data are mentioned in the text other than the import profit of - 280 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (+75); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); n - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 67 yuan/ton (+46); octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 69 yuan/ton (+4); acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 535 yuan/ton (+50); acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 505 yuan/ton (+34); phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - factory inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]