丙烯日报 | 2025-11-25 下游逢低采购，成本端存支撑 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5881元/吨（+74），丙烯华东现货价5945元/吨（+20），丙烯华北现货价5925元/吨 （-15），丙烯华东基差64元/吨（-54），丙烯华北基差8元/吨（-86）。丙烯开工率88%（+14%），中国丙烯CFR-日本 石脑油CFR173美元/吨（+21），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR59美元/吨（+10），进口利润-331元/吨（-89），厂内库存45040 吨（-2150）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率47%（+3.02%），生产利润-255元/吨（-45）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润647 元/吨（+8）；正丁醇开工率82%（-2%），生产利润-286元/吨（+9）；辛醇开工率77%（+8%），生产利润-138元/吨 （+111）；丙烯酸开工率73%（-2%），生产利润479元/吨（-14）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-296元/吨（+5）； 酚酮开工率79%（+12%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 上游检修增多，丙烯开工环比下滑，而下游复产整体 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-21 丙烯下游整体开工环比上升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5871元/吨（+31），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5940元/吨（-10）， 丙烯华东基差54元/吨（-31），丙烯华北基差56元/吨（-12）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR152 美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（+1），进口利润-241元/吨（+9），厂内库存45040吨（-2150）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率47%（+3.02%），生产利润-210元/吨（+20）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润 647元/吨（+8）；正丁醇开工率82%（-2%），生产利润-295元/吨（+6）；辛醇开工率77%（+8%），生产利润-249元/ 吨（+57）；丙烯酸开工率73%（-2%），生产利润543元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-316元/吨（-43）； 酚酮开工率79%（+12%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 周内上游检修增多，丙烯开工环比下滑，而下游复产整体开工回升， ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-20 现货市场回暖，盘面延续偏弱整理 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5840元/吨（+24），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+10），丙烯华北现货价5950元/吨 （+60），丙烯华东基差85元/吨（-14），丙烯华北基差68元/吨（+4）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本 石脑油CFR157美元/吨（+3），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR43美元/吨（-10），进口利润-250元/吨（+14），厂内库存47190 吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-230元/吨（-60）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-301元/吨（-37）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-306元/吨 （-43）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润543元/吨（-7）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-273元/吨（+15）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-19 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5816元/吨（-97），丙烯华东现货价5915元/吨（+15），丙烯华北现货价5890元/吨（+45）， 丙烯华东基差99元/吨（+112），丙烯华北基差64元/吨（+109）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR154美元/吨（+6），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR53美元/吨（-7），进口利润-265元/吨（+14），厂内库存47190吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-170元/吨（-55）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-214元/吨（-28）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-263元/吨 （+17）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润550元/吨（-11）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-288元/吨（-46）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求增量，推动丙烯市场交投好转， ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-18 下游装置集中重启带动需求回升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5913元/吨（-4），丙烯华东现货价5900元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价5845元/吨（+40）， 丙烯华东基差-13元/吨（+29），丙烯华北基差-45元/吨（+53）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR148美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR60美元/吨（-1），进口利润-279元/吨（+25），厂内库存47190吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-115元/吨（-40）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-186元/吨（-25）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-280元/吨 （-28）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润561元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-242元/吨（-31）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. Propylene spot prices rebound after hitting the bottom, and the futures market is slightly supported to rebound. The supply - demand gap narrows, but the overall supply remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still high. The downstream demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited. The short - term price may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][28] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and capacity utilization rate, propylene oxide production profit and capacity utilization rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [39][40][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - factory inventory and PP powder in - factory inventory [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Local PDH device maintenance boost and downstream device restart bring demand increment, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds and then stabilizes temporarily, and the futures price stops falling and consolidates. The supply is in a loose pattern with high inventory pressure, the demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 5,896 yuan/ton (+27), the East China spot price is 5,850 yuan/ton (-25), the North China spot price is 5,765 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 46 yuan/ton (-52), the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton (-20), the operating rate is 75% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 138 US dollars/ton (+6), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 63 US dollars/ton (+0), the import profit is - 213 yuan/ton (+27), and the factory inventory is 49,820 tons (+4,770) [1] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 43% (-0.34%), production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (+0); propylene oxide operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 268 yuan/ton (-57); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (+2%), production profit is - 96 yuan/ton (-10); octanol operating rate is 71% (-18%), production profit is - 173 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 72% (+5%), production profit is 597 yuan/ton (+18); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), production profit is - 144 yuan/ton (+14); phenol - acetone operating rate is 76% (-3%), production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply: Binhuahua's 600,000 - ton PDH and Xintai Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PDH devices have successively shut down. There is a restart expectation for the 600,000 - ton PDH devices of Ningbo Jinfa Phase I and Donghua Zhangjiagang in the East China region. There is a phased reduction in supply, but the supply is still in a loose pattern with high factory inventory pressure [2] - Demand: Downstream bargain - hunting purchases drive the improvement of market trading. The operating rates of PO and acrylic acid have increased significantly, while the octanol operating rate has decreased significantly due to centralized shutdowns. In the later stage, the overall profit of the downstream may improve marginally with the loosening of propylene prices. The acrylonitrile device of Kelu'er will restart, and there is an operating expectation for the PP of Jingbo Petrochemical and the phenol - acetone of Fuyu Petrochemical, so the demand support for propylene may increase [2] - Cost: International oil prices have risen slightly but still face over - supply pressure, and the external propane price has been continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] 3.3 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract of propylene [6][11] 3.4 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures including the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, the propylene capacity utilization rate, the PDH production gross profit of propylene, the PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, the MTO production gross profit of propylene, the methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, the propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][19] 3.5 Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and the propylene import profit [31][35] 3.6 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of production profit and operating rate for PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] 3.7 Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term may stop falling, but limited upward drive, mainly oscillating in the bottom range; - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot rebounds, and the futures price is supported to stop falling and consolidate. - The supply side has a phased reduction, but the supply is still loose, and the inventory pressure in the factory is still high. - The demand side is boosted by bargain hunting purchases, and the overall profit margin of downstream products has improved. The demand support for propylene may increase. - The cost support for propylene is limited due to the small increase in international oil prices and the continuous weakness of external propane. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5869 yuan/ton (-23), the East China spot price of propylene is 5875 yuan/ton (+25), the North China spot price of propylene is 5765 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis of propylene is 6 yuan/ton (+48), and the North China basis of propylene is -102 yuan/ton (+38). [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+0%), the propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 133 US dollars/ton (-1), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 63 US dollars/ton (-2). [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The propylene import profit is -240 yuan/ton (+52). [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 43% (-0.34%), production profit is -15 yuan/ton (+0); - Epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 268 yuan/ton (-57); - N-butanol capacity utilization rate is 86% (+2%), production profit is -86 yuan/ton (+0); - Octanol capacity utilization rate is 71% (-18%), production profit is -173 yuan/ton (-50); - Acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 72% (+5%), production profit is 579 yuan/ton (-53); - Acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 78% (-1%), production profit is -158 yuan/ton (-45); - Phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 76% (-3%), production profit is -390 yuan/ton (-25). [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The propylene inventory in the factory is 49,820 tons (+4,770). [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; may stop falling in the short term, but the upward drive is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and the restart of downstream devices brings demand increments, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds, and the futures market stops falling and consolidates [2] - The supply side has a phased reduction, but the supply is still loose, and the factory inventory pressure is still high. The demand side is driven by downstream bargain - hunting purchases, and the overall profit margin of downstream products has improved. The demand support for propylene may increase later [2] - International oil prices still face oversupply pressure, and the external propane market is continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [6][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information involves the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][27] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [63][69]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Demand support is limited, and the futures price is over - valued. The market price of civil LPG has increased, while the import cost has decreased. There is a short - term downward drive for the futures price [3]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand have narrowed, and there is an expectation of a halt in price decline in the short term. The market price has been declining due to a loose supply - demand pattern, but there are signs of improvement in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The domestic spot price of civil LPG has increased, with an average increase of 30 - 95 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased by about 250 yuan/ton. The FEI discount has been adjusted slightly, and the freight has risen and then fallen [8][20]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The actual arrival volume of international ships this week is lower than expected, but it is expected to reach about 60 tons next week [3][59]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH and MTBE operating rates have increased slightly. The refinery inventory of civil LPG is at a neutral level year - on - year, with destocking mainly in the East and South China. The port inventory of imported LPG is at a relatively high level year - on - year, also with destocking [3][84][94]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The upstream cost has weakened, and the market price of propylene has declined. The international and domestic prices of propylene have both decreased, with the domestic price reaching a new low [105][109][117]. - **Balance Sheet** - The operating rates of some production processes such as PDH have increased slightly, while the operating rates of some downstream products such as PP powder have decreased. The overall supply and demand of propylene have narrowed [127][130][134].