丙烯日报 | 2025-08-26 下游需求跟进，丙烯维持偏强震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6491元/吨（+21），丙烯华东现货价6450元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价6455元/吨 （-45），丙烯华东基差-41元/吨（+4），丙烯华北基差-36元/吨（-66）。丙烯开工率75%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日 本石脑油CFR193美元/吨（-3），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR97美元/吨（+1），进口利润-263元/吨（+3），厂内库存40320 吨（+3470）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（+1.29%），生产利润-55元/吨（+75）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+2%），生产利润-383 元/吨（-86）；正丁醇开工率89%（+0%），生产利润336元/吨（+589）；辛醇开工率92%（+6%），生产利润430元/ 吨（-18）；丙烯酸开工率70%（-5%），生产利润446元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率73%（+1%），生产利润-572元/吨（+56）； 酚酮开工率78%（+1%），生产利润-727元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 韩国石化业石脑油裂解存去产能预期，提振丙烯价格 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-08-22 丙烯下游整体开工环比上升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+26），丙烯华东现货价6425元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6470元/吨（+80）， 丙烯华东基差-47元/吨（-26），丙烯华北基差-2元/吨（+54）。丙烯开工率75%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR205美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR103美元/吨（+1），进口利润-266元/吨（-38），厂内库存36850吨（+2430）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（+1.29%），生产利润-170元/吨（-50）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+2%），生产利润-383 元/吨（-86）；正丁醇开工率89%（+0%），生产利润-253元/吨（-49）；辛醇开工率92%（+6%），生产利润470元/吨 （-57）；丙烯酸开工率70%（-5%），生产利润463元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率73%（+1%），生产利润-603元/吨（-93）； 酚酮开工率78%（+1%），生产利润-701元/吨（+50）。 市场分析 韩国石化业石脑油裂解存去产能预期，宏观情绪提振下丙 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-08-21 韩国石化业去产能预期提振丙烯价格 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6446元/吨（+42），丙烯华东现货价6425元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6390元/吨（-20）， 丙烯华东基差-21元/吨（-42），丙烯华北基差-56元/吨（-62）。丙烯开工率75%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR201美元/吨（-4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR102美元/吨（+1），进口利润-228元/吨（-4），厂内库存36850吨（+2430）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率38%（+0.84%），生产利润-120元/吨（-10）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（-1%），生产利润-747 元/吨（+33）；正丁醇开工率88%（-1%），生产利润-204元/吨（+32）；辛醇开工率87%（+10%），生产利润527元/ 吨（+14）；丙烯酸开工率75%（-4%），生产利润463元/吨（+50）；丙烯腈开工率72%（-2%），生产利润-510元/吨 （+42）；酚酮开工率77%（+0%），生产利润-751元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 韩国石化业石脑油裂解存去产能预期，宏观情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific ratings for inter - period and cross - variety [3] Core Viewpoints - Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to ample supply, insufficient downstream demand, and weak cost support. However, prices may be supported after late August due to potential supply - side maintenance and downstream demand restocking [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes charts of the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves charts of the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit of propylene, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refinery [16][25][27] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - This part has charts of the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, the production profit and operating rate of propylene oxide, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of n - butanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of octanol, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid, the production profit and capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile, and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - This section contains charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Downstream demand support for propylene is limited, and propylene continues to fluctuate weakly. Shandong Zhenhua's main PDH unit and Xintai unit are under maintenance, briefly supporting a slight increase in Shandong spot prices. However, Wanhua's PO maintenance increases propylene supply in Yantai, and downstream resistance to high prices weakens the positive impact of maintenance, causing prices to fall from highs. In the future, Tianhong and Xintai's PDH units are expected to restart, and the new capacity of Jingbo's 280,000 - ton/year K - COT unit will be released, resulting in a relatively loose supply. Downstream start - up shows a mixed trend, with overall changes being small. Short - term demand support is limited, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand as the peak season approaches. The continuous weakening of crude oil on the cost side provides negative cost support [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization [17][22][31] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures are about PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization [42][44][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is neutral; the recommendation for the PL01 - 02 inter - period is reverse arbitrage; there is no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - side start - up has increased slightly month - on - month. Although the maintenance plan of Shandong Zhenhua previously supported prices, the new production capacity of a 280,000 - ton K - COT device in Shandong was released, and the Tianhong PDH device is expected to restart. With the continuous increase in supply, the propylene price continued to be weakly sorted. The downstream start - up showed a mixed trend. The profit of propylene oxide dropped significantly, and its start - up also declined. The start - up of butanol decreased significantly, while the start - up of octanol increased rapidly. The start - up of the main downstream PP increased slightly, but the purchasing enthusiasm was not strong, and the start - up of the PP downstream was also weak. Overall, the downstream demand for propylene provided a small - scale, phased support, but the resilience was still insufficient. Later, attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of the main downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The cost of crude oil weakened, and the decline in Saudi CP drove down the propane price, resulting in a downward shift in the cost support for propylene [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the propylene basis in East China and North China, the propylene 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [7][10][13] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It covers figures on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization of the main crude oil refineries [18][25][32] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 3.4 Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream Industries - It includes figures on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][56][65] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The report has figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply - side overall开工率环比回升，PDH装置开工率回升，天弘PDH装置存重启预期，山东主力PDH装置存检修计划，但烟台区域亦有装置供应临时放量，丙烯价格偏弱整理 [2] - Downstream开工涨跌分化，酚酮开工回升较快，下游采购积极性回落，择低刚需入市为主，需求阶段性小幅支撑，但韧性仍显不足，丙烯走势承压，后期关注金九银十主力下游的采购节奏 [2] - Cost - end原油走弱，且沙特CP下跌带动丙烷价格下行，丙烯成本支撑下移 [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, propylene East China basis, propylene North China basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, propylene market price in East China, and propylene market price in Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][24] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit, PP powder operating rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide operating rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [37][39][42] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - Supply - side overall start - up increased month - on - month, with expected reduction in propylene commodity sales volume and tightened market supply, supporting propylene prices. Downstream start - up showed mixed trends, with weak demand and limited support for propylene price increases. Cost support for propylene decreased due to expected OPEC+ production increase and falling propane prices [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][24] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][31][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [37][38][40] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - Supply - side overall start - up increased month - on - month, PDH device start - up rate rebounded, some major manufacturers had maintenance plans, and the expected reduction in the market supply supported propylene prices. Downstream start - up showed a mixed trend, with the start - up of phenol - acetone increasing rapidly, and the demand had a small - scale phased support. The cost of propylene decreased as crude oil weakened and propane prices declined. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation's impact on the crude oil end [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,491 yuan/ton (+40), the spot price in East China was 6,400 yuan/ton (+75), and in North China was 6,540 yuan/ton (+240). The basis in East China was - 91 yuan/ton (+35), and in North China was 49 yuan/ton (+200). The propylene start - up rate was 74% (+1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan was 200 US dollars/ton (+1), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 96 US dollars/ton (-6), the import profit was - 286 yuan/ton (+0), and the in - plant inventory was 34,420 tons (+830) [1] - Propylene downstream: PP powder start - up rate was 38% (+1.48%), production profit was - 160 yuan/ton (-150); propylene oxide start - up rate was 74% (+1%), production profit was - 271 yuan/ton (-162); n - butanol start - up rate was 89% (-7%), production profit was - 267 yuan/ton (-99); octanol start - up rate was 77% (-1%), production profit was 448 yuan/ton (-172); acrylic acid start - up rate was 79% (-1%), production profit was 406 yuan/ton (-53); acrylonitrile start - up rate was 74% (-2%), production profit was - 625 yuan/ton (-210); phenol - acetone start - up rate was 77% (+4%), production profit was - 672 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The overall start - up increased month - on - month, PDH device start - up rate rebounded, some major manufacturers had maintenance plans, and the market supply was expected to tighten [2] - Demand side: Downstream start - up showed a mixed trend, the start - up of phenol - acetone increased rapidly, and the demand had a small - scale phased support [2] - Cost side: Crude oil weakened, and the decline in Saudi CP drove down propane prices, leading to a downward shift in propylene cost support [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] 3.4 Directory Details - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, East China and North China basis, etc. [7][10][12] - **Propylene production profit and start - up rate**: Involves figures like the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, etc. [17][24][29] - **Propylene import and export profit**: Covers figures such as the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, etc. [32][34] - **Propylene downstream profit and start - up rate**: Contains figures like PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, etc. [40][45][50] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply and demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Temporary shutdown of Binhuahua device led to a short - term tightening of propylene supply, causing a slight increase in spot prices in the main regions. However, there are expectations of restarting Binhuahua and Tianhong PDH devices and releasing new production capacity, so there is still pressure of loose supply [2] - Demand side: Some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, and there is an expectation of recovery for Kaitai acrylic acid. Downstream demand has staged support, and the overall downstream start - up rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but its sustainability is doubtful during the traditional off - season [2] - Cost side: Crude oil prices fluctuate, and geopolitical instability still exists [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes data on the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report shows the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It provides data on the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory is presented [67]