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产业担忧未退,钢矿震荡运行:钢材&铁矿石日报-20251016
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 10:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.16%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor, industrial contradictions are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction under weak demand is relatively large, and the cost - support advantage is also weakening. It is expected that the steel price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated. It recorded a daily decline of 0.19%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil is high, while there are concerns about demand. Industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating, the inventory reduction is large, and the price of hot - rolled coil is under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.90%. At present, the supply of ore has increased, while industrial concerns have fermented, and the positive factors for ore demand are weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are starting to weaken, and the over - valued ore price will be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high rigid demand for ore, there is resistance to the downward movement. The subsequent downward trend depends on the steel mills' production cuts, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - According to the VAT invoice data, in the first three quarters of this year, the equipment renewal of national enterprises accelerated. The procurement amount of machinery and equipment by industrial enterprises increased by 9.4% year - on - year. Among them, high - tech manufacturing maintained a good growth momentum, with the procurement amount of machinery and equipment increasing by 14% year - on - year. The procurement amount of digital equipment by national enterprises increased by 18.6% year - on - year [8]. - In September 2025, the balance of the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the increment of social financing scale was strong, with a cumulative increase of 30.09 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.42 trillion yuan [9]. - Shaanxi Province issued a notice on strengthening measures to prevent and contain coal mine accidents in the fourth quarter to strengthen coal mine safety prevention in the fourth quarter [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,212 yuan respectively. The prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,333 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 yuan [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 774 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 807 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 10.35 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.61 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 105.68 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 106.20 yuan [11]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,049 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The trading volume was 1,036,367 lots, an increase of 18,231 lots, and the open interest was 2,039,387 lots, a decrease of 12,158 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,219 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.19%. The trading volume was 641,702 lots, an increase of 140,505 lots, and the open interest was 1,479,995 lots, an increase of 10,590 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 773.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.90%. The trading volume was 398,551 lots, an increase of 92,790 lots, and the open interest was 535,578 lots, an increase of 27,213 lots [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel - mill inventory), and steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and electric furnace operating rate) [15][22][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, during the holiday, both supply and demand weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 3.62 tons, and the demand was also weak. With high inventory and weak cost support, it is expected that the steel price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 1.40 tons but remained at a high level within the year. The demand during the holiday was weak, and there are concerns about future demand. The price is under pressure and running weakly [37]. - For iron ore, the supply has increased, while the positive factors for demand are weakening. The high - valued ore price will be under pressure and run weakly, but there is resistance to the downward movement. The subsequent downward trend depends on the steel mills' production cuts [38].