一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周一持仓量减仓 32410 手，成交量 404093 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3206 元，最高价 3239 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3219 元/吨， 上涨 11 元，涨幅 0.34%。 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：两会限产提供支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求复苏 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3240 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期现基差 21 元。 二、基本面数据 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨，环比-1.30 万吨。 同比大幅下滑主要是春节前后制造业停工、终端采购 停滞的季节性影响；环比小幅回落则反映出今年节后需 ...

【国泰商社】三特索道推荐：国资入主理顺机制，增量项目打开空间 投资建议：公司作为国内领先的跨区域索道运营商，国资入驻后治 理结构持续优化，历史包袱有望逐步出清，核心项目盈利能力强劲， 新增项目未来贡献可期。 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分别 为 6.60/7.48 亿元/8.82 亿元，归母净利润分别为 1.37 /1.70/2.07 亿 元，对应EPS 分别为0. 【国泰商社】三特索道推荐：国资入主理顺机制，增量项目打开空间 投资建议：公司作为国内领先的跨区域索道运营商，国资入驻后治 理结构持续优化，历史包袱有望逐步出清，核心项目盈利能力强劲， 新增项目未来贡献可期。 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分别 为 6.60/7.48 亿元/8.82 亿元，归母净利润分别为 1.37 /1.70/2.07 亿 元，对应EPS 分别为0.77 元/0.96 元/1.16 元。 给予 2026 年PE为30 倍，目标价28.8 元，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 核心项目盈利能力强劲，多元化布局抗风险。 公司旗下七大盈利项 目 2024 年合计贡献营收 6.74 亿元（占比 97.33%）， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. It is suggested to be cautiously bearish, and in the medium term, still pay attention to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 8,357 lots on Thursday, with a trading volume of 319,835 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,205 yuan, the high was 3,241 yuan. In terms of the daily average line, the short-term fell back to the 5-day moving average, and the pressure of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term still exists. It closed at 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a gain of 0.16% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 30 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: The output contracted year-on-year and was basically flat month-on-month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand side: The demand decreased significantly year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year-on-year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal purchases around the Spring Festival. The slight month-on-month decline reflected that the post-festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [4]. - Inventory side: The social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory was still lower year-on-year. The factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, the factory inventory accumulated slightly. The social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished their stocks before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5888 million tons. Although it increased significantly month-on-month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4]. - Inventory-to-sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing the pressure of supply and demand. The current inventory-to-sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory-to-sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply-demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and the Two Sessions were approaching. The market's expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was not yet clear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

摘要：近日，华中农业大学发布多批政府采购意向，仪器信息网特对其中的仪器设备品目进行梳理，统 计出1项仪器设备采购意向，预算总额达1.65亿元。 近日，华中农业大学发布1项仪器设备采购意向，预算总额达1.65亿元，涉及空间组高分辨质谱仪、X射 线电子能谱仪、多维全息质谱联用仪、超高效液相色谱仪、体外DNA合成大片段导入系统（微操）、 三代纳米孔测序仪、细胞分析分选系统、无人机植物生理表型鉴定系统等仪器设备共计90台套，预计采 购时间为2026年3月。 详细采购清单： 华中农业大学2026年3月仪器设备采购意向汇总表 采购 需求概况 预算 采购 项目 国家基 础研究 创新提 升工程 设备更 新项目 （生物 学） 总投资16520万元，其中仪器设备购置费15996万元，占总投资的96.83%；工程建 设其他费及预备费524万元，占总投资的3.17%。本项目仪器设备购置主要包括近 红外成分分析仪、生物型原子力显微镜、高通量电转仪、核酸合成仪、高通量智 能人工气候室、空间组高分辨质谱仪、X射线电子能谱仪、多维全息质谱联用仪、 超高效液相色谱仪、体外DNA合成大片段导入系统（微操）、三代纳米孔测序 仪、细胞分析分选系统、 ...

晨会纪要 2026 第（32）期 发布日期：2026-02-25 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,108.50 | 1,101.50 | 7.0 | 0.635 | | | 焦炭 | 1,646.50 | 1,634.50 | 12.0 | 0.734 | | | 天然橡胶 | 17,180.00 | 17,030.00 | 150.0 | 0.881 | | | 20号胶 | 13,930.00 | 13,795.00 | 135.0 | 0.979 | | | 塑料 | 6,826.00 | 6,820.00 | 6.0 | 0.088 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,747.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View of the Report The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" game. The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, improved export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downside space. The market as a whole maintains a weak oscillating trend [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures had an increase of 18,657 lots in open interest on Tuesday, with a trading volume of 373,301 lots, showing an increase in volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,181 yuan, and the high was 3,230 yuan. It closed at 3,195 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.87%. The short-term moving average fell below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages [1]. - The spot price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - The basis between futures and spot was 35 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The output of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly, with a weekly output of 3.0776 million tons in the week of February 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.014 million tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4]. - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory trend changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social side. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, an increase of 0.0212 million tons from the previous week; the steel mill inventory was 0.7875 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from the previous week; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing an obvious accumulation compared to before the festival [4]. - **Policy**: Domestically, as the "14th Five-Year Plan" is about to start and the Two Sessions are approaching, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in are rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival is unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan 6-month outright repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

此次专项贷款的落地，是宁波深化金融与产业政策协同、精准服务民营经济的缩影。宁波交通港航部门 积极落实《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》和《关于进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施》精神，通 过搭建银企对接平台、建立项目储备库、推动政策直达快享等举措，已推动5个船舶建造融资项目纳入 政策支持范围，总获批额度达2.55亿元，为更多港航企业转型升级提供了可复制的宁波做法。 据悉，下一步，宁波交通港航部门将继续深化政策宣传和融资对接，扩大设备更新专项贷款覆盖范围， 引导更多民营企业参与船舶更新、智慧港口建设等领域，为推动宁波港航业高质量发展、服务交通强国 建设贡献更大力量。 "这场'及时雨'真是解了我们的燃眉之急！"企业负责人激动地算了一笔账：按1.75%的利率计算，一年 可节省利息近百万元，大大降低了融资成本，让企业能够轻装上阵，加速船舶绿色化、智能化升级。 央广网宁波2月24日消息（记者张雯雯 通讯员宋兵 梁湘）近日，宁波市首笔交通运输领域设备更新专项 贷款成功落地，宁波绪扬海运有限公司获得4000万元超低息贷款，利率低至1.75%。这笔贷款不仅为企 业加快船舶更新换代注入了强劲动力，更标志着宁波在运用国家结构性货币政 ...

早盘速递 2026/2/24 热点资讯 1.美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的大规模关税违法。随后特朗普签署行政命令，自2月24日 起对进口商品征收10%从价关税，为期150天，后又将税率提升至15%。 预期2027年铜市将转为温和过剩，因铜废料供应增加、且2025年多个发生重大供应中断的矿场恢复供应。 2.我国今年继续推进大规模设备更新，多个领域的设备更新项目加快落地。线下消费商业设施的设备更新，在今年被首度纳入 设备更新政策当中。目前，2026年新一轮设备更新已陆续启动，涉及工业、电子信息、节能降碳环保等约20个领域。 3.摩根大通预计，2026年铜市将出现13万吨供应缺口，第二季度铜价将达13500美元/吨，第三季度为13000美元/吨。摩根大通 4.美国总统特朗普表示，所有关于可能对伊朗开战的报道都是错误的，而且是蓄意为之。自己是做决定的人，更愿意达成协议 而不是打仗，但如果不能达成协议，对伊朗及伊朗人民来说，那将是极其糟糕的一天。此前有消息称，特朗普已告诉其顾问， 他倾向于在未来数日对伊朗进行初步打击，然后在未来数月发动一场更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊朗屈服并按美方要求达成协 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 股指涨多跌少。市场方面，近一周，全球主要股指涨多跌少，韩国综合指数领涨，涨幅约为5.5%，巴 西、法国、英国股指涨幅居前，恒生科技、日经指数走势偏弱。美股三大指数均收涨，其中纳指涨幅居 前（+1.5%）。 策略 春节期间，海外市场存在贸易与地缘政治方面的扰动，但整体较为平淡，预计对我国股指的影响有限， 国内市场仍将延续"以我为主"的运行逻辑。节后，机构将重启配置节奏，居民资金转移配置带来的增量 资金潜力在年内不容忽视，叠加人民币持续升值的长期支撑，股指有望迎来积极开局。关注两会政策动 向，全年视角下，市场预计将呈现震荡上行的慢牛格局。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 关注两会。宏观方面，我国今年继续推进大规模设备更新，多个领域设备更新项目加快落地。目前， 2026年新一轮设备更新已在31个省（区、市）和新疆生产建设兵团陆续启动，涉及工业、电子信息、节 能降碳环保等约20个领域。海外方面，美国最高法院裁定， ...

Group 1 - The article highlights four major signals that are expected to support the market as it opens for the Year of the Horse, including continuous policy support, strong consumer recovery, clear industry trends, and favorable external market conditions [4][6][9] - Policy measures are focused on equipment upgrades, consumer goods exchange programs, and significant support for new infrastructure, digital economy, and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to boost economic recovery [4] - Consumer spending has shown remarkable resilience, with record box office revenues during the Spring Festival, a doubling in travel bookings, and a nearly 500% increase in duty-free shopping in Hainan, alongside over 20% growth in dining and accommodation transactions [4] Group 2 - The article notes that the global market has been performing well, with significant gains in indices such as the Hang Seng Index and the Nikkei 225, which rose over 4%, creating a positive environment for the A-share market [6][7] - Commodity markets have also seen increases, with LME copper up 4%, London silver up 3%, and Brent crude oil rising 2.3%, providing support for cyclical sectors [7] Group 3 - The investment strategy for the Year of the Horse emphasizes a cautious approach, focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad market gains, with a prediction of a stable opening and active sector performance [9][10] - Four main investment themes are identified: the AI industry chain, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, consumer recovery sectors, and cyclical resources, with AI being the strongest focus due to its recent performance [10][11][12] - The article advises against high-risk strategies, recommending a focus on core stocks within the identified themes and careful monitoring of key indicators such as trading volume and foreign capital inflows [13][14]