来源：滚动播报 美联储穆萨勒姆：关注个人消费支出（PCE）通胀，而非消费者物价指数（CPI）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. was unexpectedly low at 2.7%, compared to Wall Street's forecast of 3.1% [10] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Economists had anticipated a surge in inflation following the implementation of tariffs, but studies from the San Francisco Fed indicate that tariffs historically have not led to significant inflation increases [2][11] - Although tariffs have negatively impacted economic growth and increased unemployment, their effect on inflation has been milder than expected [3][11] Group 2: Decline in Tariff Revenue - Tariff revenue has started to decline, with figures dropping from a peak of $34.2 billion in October to $30.2 billion in December [4][12] - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. is estimated to be around 12%, and the impact of tariffs on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is only about 0.9 percentage points, with most of this already absorbed by the market [4][12] Group 3: Government Debt and Fiscal Implications - The shortfall in tariff revenue has significant implications for the U.S. government's ability to service its debt, with current tariff revenues falling short of White House expectations [5][13] - The cumulative deficit for the fiscal year 2026 has reached $439 billion, and the national debt exceeds $38.5 trillion [6][14] Group 4: Market Reactions - Investors are demanding higher risk premiums, with slight increases in yields for 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds [7][15] - However, stock investors are pleased with the current low inflation environment, as evidenced by the S&P 500 index nearing its historical peak [7][15] - The prevailing sentiment on Wall Street is that controlled inflation is viewed positively [8][16]