Core Insights - Taiwan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.48% year-on-year in October, with pork prices rising by 9.07% due to reduced supply from African swine fever and hot weather [1][1][1] - The average CPI from January to October this year grew by 1.74% compared to the same period last year, with goods increasing by 1.34% and services by 2.12% [1][1][1] - Taiwan's Economic Research Institute predicts a gradual decline in inflation, estimating a CPI growth rate of approximately 1.66% for 2026 [1][1][1] Price Changes - Prices for eggs, grains and their products, and dining out increased by 6.69%, 3.88%, and 3.56% year-on-year, respectively [1][1][1] - Housing costs saw a year-on-year increase in rent by 2.14% and electricity fees by 5.24% [1][1][1] - In the entertainment and transportation sectors, costs for tour packages, hotel accommodations, train tickets, and vehicle parts and maintenance also rose [1][1][1] Economic Growth Forecast - The Economic Research Institute has significantly revised the economic growth rate for Taiwan in 2025 to 5.94%, driven by strong exports of artificial intelligence products [1][1][1] - The forecast for economic growth in 2026 is set at 2.6% [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant drop in gold prices, which fell nearly $50 to $4063.80 per ounce, influenced by various factors including international trade dynamics, geopolitical developments, monetary policy expectations, and stock market performance [2] - The U.S. Labor Department's release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which was below expectations, has raised the likelihood of an interest rate cut in October, although it did not alter the prevailing inflationary concerns above the 2% target [2] - The market sentiment towards gold has turned cautious despite the support from potential interest rate cuts and lingering geopolitical risks, indicating a mixed outlook for gold's long-term performance [2] Group 2 - Following last week's significant drop, gold has entered a consolidation phase, oscillating between the resistance level of $4150 and the support level of $4000, with expectations that a breakout from this range could determine the next market direction [3] - The technical analysis suggests that as long as gold remains within the $4150/$4000 range, traders should focus on effective trading strategies rather than predicting a clear trend, with potential targets of $4200, $4250, and $4300 if the bullish trend continues [3] - Domestic gold prices, particularly in the Shanghai market, have shown a similar pattern, with support levels at 930 and 925, indicating that as long as these levels hold, significant declines are unlikely [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 23rd day, with the Senate rejecting temporary funding resolutions, indicating a persistent political deadlock [2] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is highly anticipated, but it may not provide the necessary insights for investors due to the absence of official economic data during the shutdown [2] - Market expectations suggest that the core inflation rate for September will remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a muted response, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level since August 2022, reflecting expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The ten-year Treasury yield has also fallen below 4%, reaching its lowest closing level in over a year, indicating a consistent bearish outlook among investors regarding future economic conditions [2] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the sharp slowdown in job growth, which, despite being offset by a contraction in labor supply, remains a troubling trend [3] Group 3 - The current spot gold price is trading above $4106, with a slight increase of 0.30%, and has shown a range between a high of $4136.89 and a low of $4064.51 [1] - The structural bullish outlook for spot gold remains intact, supported by trading above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $3613.62 [4] - The relative strength index (RSI) is above the midpoint and not in the overbought zone, reinforcing upward momentum for gold prices [5]

Core Insights - The Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increased by 2.2% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in the previous three months, slightly exceeding the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term inflation target of 2.0% [1] Inflation Data - Service sector inflation rose from 3.1% in August to 3.2% in September [1] - Energy prices saw a significant narrowing in the year-on-year decline, dropping only 0.4% in September compared to a 2.0% decline in August [1] - The price increase for food, alcohol, and tobacco slowed to 3.0%, down from 3.2% previously, with unprocessed food inflation weakening further [1] - Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained stable at 0.8% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, increased to 2.4%, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 2.3% and reversing the over three-year low of 2.3% recorded in August, indicating persistent underlying price pressures in the Eurozone [1] ECB Commentary - ECB Governing Council member Simkus expressed support for a "risk management-style rate cut," noting that current inflation and economic growth risks are "more tilted to the downside" [1] - Simkus emphasized that the price forecast for 2028 is crucial for the ECB's next steps [1] - He also mentioned the possibility of further appreciation of the euro [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index has broken through resistance levels and is now above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, marking a significant shift in sentiment after a period of bearish outlooks on the dollar [1] - The focus in the market has shifted from questioning the dollar's decline to assessing how much short position liquidation is necessary, impacting currencies like the euro and yen [3] - The U.S. labor market is showing structural changes, with the number of jobs needed to maintain stable unemployment dropping significantly, indicating that slower job growth does not necessarily equate to economic weakness [4] Group 2 - The rise of the dollar is seen as self-reinforcing, with momentum traders driving up the index despite underlying fundamentals, while other currencies struggle to act as safe havens [5] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is critical, as a core reading of 0.3% could confirm a rate cut in October, but the outlook for December remains uncertain [5] - In Europe, the euro remains vulnerable despite temporary relief from political announcements, with traders wary of fiscal credibility and potential market reactions [6] Group 3 - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to political instability rather than monetary policy, with the potential for a coalition government to stabilize the currency [6] - The current rise in the dollar index reflects market mechanics rather than macroeconomic beliefs, suggesting that unless there are significant changes in CPI or Federal Reserve communications, the dollar may enter a consolidation phase [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. Labor Department is resuming work on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report despite the ongoing federal government shutdown [2][4] - The CPI report is a critical measure of U.S. inflation, tracking price changes across a wide range of goods and services [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had initially paused work on the CPI report due to the shutdown, but it is now necessary for calculating Social Security cost-of-living adjustments [3] Group 1 - The BLS will "promptly resume" work on September's CPI data, which was originally scheduled for release on October 15 [2] - The federal government shutdown has affected other BLS data releases, including the nonfarm payroll report, due to a lapse in funding [4] - The Senate has failed to pass funding bills multiple times, contributing to the ongoing government shutdown [4]

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August is expected to show persistent inflation, with a projected month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, marking the highest level since January [1][2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining unchanged from previous values [1][2] - Tariff costs are expected to continue impacting overall inflation, with economists noting that the gradual implementation of tariffs helps avoid sharp price spikes in any given month [1][2] Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a month-over-month increase in core CPI of 0.36%, slightly above market expectations, pushing the year-over-year core CPI to 3.13% [2] - Ameriprise anticipates a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.4%, driven by rising tariff costs and food prices, with overall inflation expected to peak between 3.2% and 3.4% in November to December [3] - The impact of tariffs is seen as temporary, with expectations that inflation will peak and then begin to decline [3] Consumer Sentiment and Market Reactions - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year have risen to 4.8%, significantly higher than market predictions of 2.6% [3] - The ongoing inflationary pressures are primarily driven by the service sector rather than goods prices, which are more directly affected by tariffs [5] - If CPI data exceeds expectations, it may indicate a loss of momentum in the inflation decline trend, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [5][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 72% chance of another cut in October [5] - The Federal Reserve's focus on employment data may be challenged by rising inflation, making future rate decisions more complex [5][6] - Ameriprise predicts a rate cut in September but does not foresee another cut in October due to accelerating inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - A Wall Street strategist suggests that despite a recent market rally due to signals of interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, upcoming economic indicators, particularly the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment report, could lead the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to delay more accommodative monetary policy if they exceed expectations [1] Group 1 - The strategist maintains a target price for the S&P 500 index, predicting it will reach 6600 points by the end of 2025 and 7700 points by the end of 2026, with a subjective probability of 55% for this baseline scenario [1] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September as expected, a stronger "bull market" could push the S&P 500 to 7000 points before the end of 2025 [1] - By 2026, the driving force behind the bull market is expected to shift towards corporate earnings [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded by 0.5% from a two-week low, reducing the attractiveness of gold for buyers holding other currencies [1] - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July surged by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5% [1] - The core PPI for July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in June and above the expected 2.9% [1] - The month-on-month PPI for July rose by 0.9%, far surpassing the market forecast of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - These data points dampened hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 94.3% to 90.4% after the PPI release [1] Group 2 - The daily chart for gold shows prices below the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $3357 per ounce, indicating dynamic resistance [2] - The 100-day SMA is still moving upward but has lost upward momentum near $3301.80 per ounce [2] - Technical indicators remain neutral, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly declining, consistent with the ongoing weakness in gold prices [2] Group 3 - In the short term, the risk for gold prices is tilted downward, with prices trading below all moving averages [3] - The 20-period SMA is gaining downward traction between the directionless 100-period and 200-period SMAs [3] - Technical indicators are flattening but remain in negative territory, reflecting a recent rebound from lows without indicating further recovery [3] Group 4 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) indicates a bearish bias [4] - Resistance levels are identified at 3342, 3357, and 3360, while support levels are at 3323, 3302, and 3282 [4] - Momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of ≥67.1% [4] Group 5 - The daily chart for the Euro against the US dollar (EURUSD) shows a bullish bias [5] - Resistance levels are at 1.1678, 1.1700, and 1.1721, while support levels are at 1.1634, 1.1581, and 1.1531 [5] - Momentum is moderate, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of ≥67.1% [5] Group 6 - Key economic indicators to watch include US retail sales for July, industrial production for July, initial expectations for the one-year inflation rate in August, and June commercial inventory month-on-month [5]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July in the United States showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8% and consistent with June's figure [1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, matching expectations and down from June's 0.3% increase [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.0% and up from 2.9% in June [1] - On a month-on-month basis, the core CPI rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than June's 0.2% [1]