在剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份美国核心CPI同比增长3.1%，预期3.0%，6月份为2.9%。美 国7月份核心CPI环比增长0.3%，预期0.3%，6月份为0.2%。 本报讯(记者韩昱)8月12日晚，美国7月份消费者物价指数(CPI)数据出炉。数据显示，美国7月份CPI同比 增长2.7%，预期为2.8%，6月份为2.7%。美国7月份CPI环比增长0.2%，预期0.2%，6月份为0.3%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite rising calls for interest rate cuts from President Trump and speculation about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the Fed's policy rate outlook remains largely unchanged due to increasing inflation pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, as inflation data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.4% to 2.7% in June [2] - The trend of declining commodity prices is reversing, contributing to overall inflation and suggesting that businesses may be passing some costs onto consumers [2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that inflation may be at a "turning point," with nearly half of the goods experiencing annualized price increases of 5% or more, double the rate from January [2] - Fed officials project that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% by the end of the year, but they only anticipate a 0.5 percentage point rate cut, which is significantly less than market expectations [2] - There is a general consensus among Fed officials against aggressive rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index is facing key resistance in the 97.80-98.00 range, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern, creating multiple technical pressure points [3] - Momentum indicators show mild bullish signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering to near the neutral zone of 50, indicating a restoration of market momentum, though it has not yet reached overbought conditions [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices showed an upward trend, recovering above the 3340 mark to reach 3341.60 USD/oz, with an increase of approximately 0.5% [1] - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to a slight decline in the US dollar and bond yields [1][3] - The US dollar index has retreated from a one-month peak, currently at 98.47, down about 0.15%, enhancing gold's appeal to holders of other currencies [3] Group 2 - The latest US CPI data exceeded market expectations, exerting significant downward pressure on gold prices [4] - The geopolitical situation remains unstable, causing fluctuations in risk aversion sentiment, which has not provided sustained upward momentum for gold prices [4] - From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices are currently above moving average support levels, but the overall trend remains unclear, with key resistance levels at 3350, 3360, and 3380, and support levels at 3320, 3300, and 3280 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - In May, the Bank of Korea lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to support economic growth amid weak domestic demand and uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [4]. - The next rate cut is anticipated to be postponed until October due to rising domestic housing prices and household debt [4]. - The central bank is focusing on financial stability, especially given the risks in the real estate market [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in June was reported at 2.2%, slightly above the expected 2.1%, with core inflation remaining stable at 2.0% for the second consecutive month [4]. - The growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was primarily influenced by base effects, and a slowdown in CPI growth is expected in July if oil prices and foreign exchange trends remain stable [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement to maintain the interest rate, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the South Korean won showed little change [5]. - The KOSPI index experienced fluctuations, rising nearly 1% at one point [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the British pound is influenced primarily by fundamental factors, with limited high-impact financial data released recently [1] - The upcoming final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, particularly in the services sector, and May's housing price indicators are expected to be significant for the pound's movement [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of England may lower interest rates once or even twice before the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data for April exceeded expectations, potentially easing the market's dovish outlook on the Bank of England [1] - The speech planned by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann on Tuesday is a key event for monetary policy, with hawkish tones likely to support the pound [1] - The call from Bank of England Governor Bailey for stronger ties between the UK and the EU remains a primary concern for pound traders, especially in light of disappointing UK-US trade agreements [1] Group 3 - The UK government's austerity measures may exert pressure on the pound [1] - Analysts believe that the intentions of the Bank of England will be crucial for the pound's movement in the coming week, alongside external fundamental factors from the US and EU [1] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is struggling to maintain above 60.00, with a potential decline to the 40.00-60.00 range signaling the end of bullish momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising rice prices in Japan present significant challenges for the newly appointed Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi, who aims to stabilize the market and address public concerns about food affordability [1][5]. Price Trends - Japan's consumer price index (CPI) for April showed a 3.5% year-on-year increase, with rice prices soaring by 98.4%, marking the highest increase since 1971 [1][3]. - As of May 11, the average price for a 5-kilogram bag of rice reached 4,268 yen (approximately 212 RMB), double the price from the previous year [3]. Government Response - Prime Minister Kishida has set a target to reduce the price of a 5-kilogram bag of rice to between 3,000 and 4,000 yen (approximately 150 to 200 RMB) [3]. - Koizumi plans to introduce reserve rice priced below 3,000 yen as early as June [3][4]. Challenges Ahead - Koizumi faces three main challenges: curbing the 18-week rise in rice prices, potentially increasing imports and domestic production, and establishing a transparent price monitoring system [5][6]. - The Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) have raised advance payments for this year's autumn rice harvest, indicating that consumers may face even higher prices in the fall [6]. Market Dynamics - The JA has increased advance payments for rice, with prices for Koshihikari rice in Niigata Prefecture rising by 35% to 23,000 yen (approximately 1,156 RMB) per 60 kilograms, and Akita Komachi rice in Akita Prefecture expected to reach 24,000 yen (approximately 1,206 RMB) [6]. - The upcoming US-Japan tariff negotiations may influence Japan's rice import strategy, potentially impacting domestic prices [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights a growing gap between income and actual living costs for low-income families in the U.S., with a shortfall exceeding $29,000 for the bottom 60% of households [1] - The study indicates that traditional inflation metrics fail to accurately reflect the economic pressures faced by these families, as their spending on necessities is disproportionately high compared to wealthier households [1][2] - Since 2001, the median household income in the U.S. has decreased by 4% when adjusted for the "Minimum Quality of Life Index," while the commonly used Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows an 11% increase in income during the same period [1] Group 2 - The rising cost of child-rearing has significantly contributed to the economic strain on low-income families, with expenses for raising children more than doubling since 2001, exceeding $30,000 for a typical family of four in 2023 [2] - High-income families have experienced stable economic surpluses, maintaining over 60% above the minimum quality of life standard, with an average annual income of approximately $200,000 in 2023, leaving a surplus of nearly $128,000 after basic living expenses [2]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.03% year-on-year in April, with food prices experiencing the highest rise at 4.34% [1] Group 1: CPI Overview - The average CPI for the first four months of the year rose by 2.15% compared to the same period last year, surpassing the 2% inflation warning line [1] - The fluctuation in food prices was the most significant among seven major consumption categories, with fruit prices increasing by 25.26% due to limited supply [1] Group 2: Specific Price Changes - Meat prices rose by 4.46%, dining out costs increased by 3.48%, and other grain products like bread saw a 3.38% increase [1] - Only egg prices experienced a decline, dropping by 9.93% [1] Group 3: Other Categories - Miscellaneous items saw a price increase of 2.85%, driven by higher prices for personal items like jewelry and tobacco [1] - Medical and healthcare costs rose by 1.96%, attributed to increases in registration fees, hospital co-payments, and medical care fees [1] - Housing costs increased by 1.89%, with rent rising by 2.40% and maintenance costs by 2.06% [1] Group 4: Currency Impact - The recent appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is expected to help alleviate future inflationary pressures [1]