Report Summary for the Week of January 26 - 30, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and may experience high - level oscillations before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Although there are negative feedbacks from downstream due to high prices and a reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January, the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The expected operating range of the spot aluminum price in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Near the Spring Festival in late January, high prices lead to increased negative feedback from downstream, and the reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January may disrupt the market. However, considering the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions and wait for the price to rise [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while mid - term long positions should be continued to hold. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Not elaborated in detail, but the overall strategy is related to holding positions and inventory management [8]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: Based on CRU data, the cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is $58 - 68 per ton. Domestic ore supply has no expectation of resumption of mining and production release, and may continue to tighten. The supply of Guinean alumina is growing steadily, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **Alumina Market**: Affected by environmental control and operating pressure, some alumina enterprises in the north carried out maintenance, and the industry's operating rate declined. The weekly output decreased by 39,000 tons to 1.671 million tons. The overall supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance and the recovery progress of previous maintenance [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December, the domestic built - in capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6893 million tons, showing a slight increase. However, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. The daily output of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects is increasing, and the output is expected to continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear [9]. - **Import and Export**: The current theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December, the export volume was 545,000 tons, still at a high level in recent years [9]. - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the aluminum ingot inventory was 743,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from January 19, the first de - stocking since January; the aluminum bar inventory was 222,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 19, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 4% compared with last week, and was about 20% lower than the same period last year, still at a low level in recent years [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about - 70 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract was about 0 yuan/ton. The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: Macro - sentiment dominates. The Fed's decision is expected to be neutral to bearish, but the strong performance of gold and silver limits the callback space. The pressure of inventory accumulation and the short - term decline in inventory create a game, and the futures price is expected to rise first and then fall [10]. - **Key Concerns**: Changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January; the evolution of the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran; whether the bauxite price drops unexpectedly [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Most prices of bauxite, alumina, and related raw materials have changed. For example, the price of Guinean bauxite SI2 - 3% decreased by 1.59% week - on - week, and the price of Henan - grade alumina decreased by 0.29% week - on - week. The price of domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased by 0.21% week - on - week, while the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% week - on - week [11]. - Imported aluminum ore is still under pressure, coal prices have declined, and alumina prices have stabilized, but the bearish atmosphere is still strong [11]. Supply - demand Situation - The profit situation of important links in the domestic aluminum industry is as follows: the alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss of about 70 yuan/ton and a theoretical import loss of about 50 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical import loss of about 2,050 yuan/ton [14]. Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a contango structure of higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term. The pattern of "increased supply arrivals + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The current price is mainly guided by the macro and expectations, and the spot side is a drag [21]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,750 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,790 yuan/ton before the festival. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [28][29]. Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long floating - profit positions are relatively heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur [31]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force first decreased and then increased this week, remaining stable compared with last week. Both the long and short camps have increased their positions. The net short position of institutional positions mainly for speculation remains stable, and the net long position of funds from the background of mid - downstream enterprises has continued to decrease slightly. The main funds are still cautious about the short - term market, and the short - term may be in high - level consolidation [34].