早上好！ 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，降息25个基点的概率为39.6%。 消息面上，据央视报道，一项最新民调显示，美国民众对特朗普政府的经济政策日益感到不满，整体经济情绪显著恶化。 调查中，76%的受访者认为美国经济状况"不佳"，较7月的67%进一步上升。多数受访者表示，包括医疗和住房费用等在内，各项生活成本持续上涨。 在"迟到48天"之后，美国劳工统计局终于公布9月非农就业数据。美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，市场预估为增加5.2万人，前值为增加2.2万人。美 国9月失业率为4.4%，预估为4.3%，前值为4.3%。 数据公布后，美股期货拉升，道琼斯指数期货涨0.80%，标普500指数期货涨1.49%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨2.02%，然而截至收盘，道琼斯指数期货跌 0.84%，标普500指数期货跌1.56%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌2.15%。 三大股指收盘也普跌，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，纳斯达克指数跌2.15%，标普指数跌1.55%。个股方面，英伟达跌超3%，特斯拉跌超2%，甲骨文跌超6%。 利率互换市场继续显示，美联储12月降息的可能性不大。数据公布后， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic data [2][4][8] - On Tuesday, spot gold prices initially rose to a daily high of $3345.25 but later fell, closing down 0.51% at $3315.60 per ounce, reflecting market concerns over the Fed's policy direction and geopolitical developments [2][8] - The market anticipates two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference for confirmation of policy direction [2][5][6] Group 2 - Optimism regarding a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to its price decline [4][8] - The U.S. housing market data shows a mixed trend, with July new home starts exceeding expectations by over 5%, while building permits declined, indicating potential economic volatility [5][8] - The latest API report indicates a decrease of 2.4 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, suggesting resilient demand and providing some support for oil prices, despite geopolitical tensions potentially easing supply constraints [10]

Group 1 - Trump expresses hope for Putin to advance peace talks regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but acknowledges the possibility that Putin may not seek an agreement, which could put him in a "difficult position" [1] - Trump anticipates that Putin's actions will become clearer in the coming weeks and reiterates that U.S. troops will not be deployed to Ukraine, while the specifics of U.S. security guarantees remain unspecified [1][3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky views the recent talks with Trump as a significant step towards ending the conflict, despite ongoing uncertainties about Russia's willingness to cooperate [1][2] Group 2 - The atmosphere during the talks was positive, with no demands for Ukraine to surrender or cut off aid, maintaining the transatlantic alliance [2] - However, there is significant uncertainty regarding the nature of U.S. security guarantees and the intentions behind them, as discussions among allies continue [3] - Analysts suggest that Russia may delay the conflict while attempting to shift U.S. pressure through prolonged peace negotiations [4][5]

Core Points - The control over the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict lies with Russia, as stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] - Zelensky emphasized the necessity for Russia to initiate a ceasefire and to pursue peace through concrete diplomatic means [1] - The position of Europe is deemed crucial in this process, with Ukraine engaging in dialogues and meetings with European leaders to align their stance [1] - Ukraine is preparing a series of meetings in Europe aimed at advancing the peace process [1]

Core Points - The Russian government is committed to promoting a peaceful resolution to the conflict while safeguarding its interests [1] - Russia expresses a desire to normalize relations with the United States but acknowledges that the current state of bilateral relations does not allow for strategic stability dialogues [1] - There have been no discussions between Russia and the U.S. regarding the extension of the New START treaty due to the current state of relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Russian President Putin proposed to resume direct negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul starting May 15, emphasizing willingness to negotiate without preconditions and the possibility of a new ceasefire agreement [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Russia will send a representative delegation to the negotiations, with the specific level of representatives to be announced later [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky responded positively to the proposal, viewing it as a good sign and expressing hope for a comprehensive and reliable ceasefire starting May 12 [2]. Group 2: Challenges to Peace Process - Continuous military aid from Western countries to Ukraine and discussions about potential troop deployments are likely to be contentious issues in the negotiations [2]. - Ukraine maintains a strong stance on core issues such as territorial sovereignty, making compromise difficult [2]. - Even temporary ceasefire arrangements may lead to intense negotiations based on battlefield dynamics, indicating that while a negotiation window has opened, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges [2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. will not expand sanctions against Russia to avoid disrupting the peace process in Ukraine [1] Group 1 - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the U.S. is closer to achieving a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine than it has been in the past three years [1] - Rubio emphasized the urgency of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1] - The U.S. has various means to hold accountable those who are unwilling to promote a peace agreement in Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that both Ukraine and Russia have a willingness to negotiate for peace, and that the U.S. has set a deadline for its stance on the conflict, which may change after that date [1] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's attacks on Kyiv and indicated that the U.S. would do everything possible to cooperate with Ukraine [1][3] - The issue of territorial concessions by Ukraine will depend on the specific territories in question, as stated by Trump [2] Group 2 - Trump believes that Russia is not the obstacle to peace, and that the U.S. is applying significant pressure on both sides to facilitate the peace process [3]

当被问及乌克兰割让领土问题时，特朗普表示，这将取决于具体割让哪些领土。 2025.04. 25 本文字数：408，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻报道， 当地时间4月24日，美国总统特朗普就俄乌冲突发表了一系列言论。 特朗普指 出，乌克兰和俄罗斯都有实现和平的意愿，双方都必须加入谈判。 他还透露， 自己已在俄乌问题上 设定了一个最后期限，期限过后，美国的态度将会有所不同。 不过，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫23日称，特朗普从未指定任何日期，且俄方认为设定俄乌停火 的最后期限并不合适。 在谈及对俄罗斯的态度时，特朗普表达了对俄罗斯袭击基辅的不满。当谈及是否对俄罗斯实施制裁 时，特朗普表示，他"宁愿在一周内回答这个问题"，但如果无法达成协议结束冲突，"事情就会发 生"，并强调美国会竭尽全力与乌克兰合作。 此外，特朗普认为，俄罗斯并非和平的阻碍，目前美国正在对俄乌双方施加巨大压力，以推动和平进 程。 微信编辑 | 七三 推荐阅读 白宫慌了！将设工作组紧急处理对中国加征关税危机 n 777 124 1> T - www.bands.com and and and a do a character and a lot a ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential for peace negotiations, as expressed by former President Trump, who emphasizes the need for both parties to engage in talks [1][2]. - Trump has set a deadline for negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue, indicating that the U.S. stance may change after this deadline [1]. - The Russian government, represented by spokesperson Peskov, disputes Trump's claims about a specified deadline, suggesting that setting a ceasefire deadline is inappropriate [1]. Group 2 - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's actions in Kyiv and indicated a willingness to respond to questions about sanctions against Russia within a week, contingent on the progress of peace negotiations [1]. - The former president stated that the resolution of territorial concessions by Ukraine would depend on the specifics of the territories in question [2]. - Trump believes that Russia is not the main obstacle to peace and that the U.S. is applying significant pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to facilitate the peace process [2].