Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Indonesian government plans to enforce the B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026, which will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil. However, the progress of the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain due to the government shutdown [4]. - The September MPOB report showed an increase in the ending inventory to 2.36 million tons, which was bearish for the market. But the production in the producing areas will enter the off - season, leading to a gradual contraction in supply. In India, the palm oil imports decreased in September due to more soybean oil imports. In China, the palm oil trading was sluggish, with weekly inventory decreasing and expected to be stable in the future. The domestic soybean oil inventory is at a five - year high, while the import of rapeseed products is expected to decrease [4]. - The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, reducing the market's expectation of easing at the APEC meeting. The US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level, and the oil price is weakening. The Malaysian palm oil production is entering the off - season, and there is support from the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the September MPOB report showed lower - than - expected consumption, increasing the ending inventory and limiting price increases. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1:油脂市场行情回顾 - Since September, the oil and fat sector has been oscillating. In the domestic market at the end of September, the palm oil 01 contract fell 88 to 9228 yuan/ton (-0.94%), the soybean oil 01 contract fell 218 to 8140 yuan/ton (-2.61%), and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 255 to 10044 yuan/ton (+2.60%). In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 55 to 4351 ringgit/ton (-1.25%), the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.66 to 49.44 cents/pound (-5.11%), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 23.6 to 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.76%). In the spot market, the palm oil in Guangzhou fell 260 to 9060 yuan/ton (-2.79%), the first - grade soybean oil in Shandong fell 170 to 8300 yuan/ton (-2.01%), and the imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose 350 to 10250 yuan/ton (+3.54%) [9]. 3.2:基本面分析 3.2.1: MPOB Report - In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.855 million tons (+2.35% month - on - month), exports were 1.3247 million tons (-0.29% month - on - month), imports were 49,000 tons (-19.66% month - on - month), and the ending inventory increased to 2.2025 million tons (+4.18% month - on - month). The report was slightly bearish [19]. 3.2.2: Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From September 1 - 30, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month according to SPPOMA, and by 2.35% according to MPOA, with an estimated total production of 1.81 million tons in September. Different institutions' data on September exports varied, with ITS showing a 9.6% increase, AmSpec showing a 7.3% increase, and SGS showing a 13.41% decrease compared to the previous month [22][23]. 3.2.3: Indonesian Situation - In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.606 million tons, exports were 3.537 million tons, domestic consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the inventory was 2.568 million tons. Compared with the previous year and the five - year average, there were significant changes in production, exports, and consumption [29]. 3.2.4: Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In August 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.62 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports were 991,000 tons, soybean oil imports were 368,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 257,000 tons. There were changes compared with the previous month and the previous year [31][32]. 3.2.5: Chinese Oil and Fat Imports - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 138,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to August also showed different trends compared with the previous year [36]. 3.2.6: Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3794 million tons, with soybean oil inventory at 1.2487 million tons, palm oil inventory at 552,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory at 578,500 tons. There were changes compared with the previous week and the previous year [41]. 3.3:总结与后市展望 - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy will generate additional demand for palm oil, but the US biodiesel policy has uncertainties. The September MPOB report was bearish, but the production will enter the off - season. In India, palm oil imports decreased, and in China, the palm oil inventory is expected to be stable. The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and the US dollar index and oil price are weak. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [44][45].