棕榈油月报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 等待MPOB报告落地 预计棕榈油震荡走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 ⚫ 风险因素：生柴政策，产量和出口 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 11 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国计划将长 ...

油脂油料2026年度报告： 潮平岸阔，静待晨曦 2025年12月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 020304 2025年油脂油料行情回顾 国内油脂油料供需分析 全球油脂油料供需分析 05 行情展望 01 观点策略 观点策略 美豆减产330万吨已成定局，阿根廷大豆产量预计下降260万吨左右，如果巴西大豆产量在1.75亿吨左右，中国恢复采 购美豆，预计CBOT大豆较难跌破1000美分/蒲，主要是出口压力大的悲观预期已过，种植成本约1242美分/蒲，目前估值偏 低，若美国生柴政策有利多提振，预计CBOT大豆将震荡上行。 马来西亚棕榈油库存处于高位，印尼棕榈油库存维持偏低，预计印尼棕榈油生物柴油用量最多增加150万吨左右，如 果棕榈油产量维持2025年的高位或小幅增加，棕榈油的供需基本面缺乏大的矛盾，如果宏观面没有强驱动，预计棕榈油价 格较难突破10000元/吨。目前棕榈油的基本面仍偏弱，等待减产季马棕库存去化才边际好转。 全球菜籽丰产，供应宽松，预计上半年菜油仍将承压。 综合来看，预计油脂整体上震荡偏强，但目前缺乏强的驱动，如宏观资金面没有利多带动，预计油脂上方空间有限。 价差方面，关注一季度菜油丰产 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 181 to close at 4,087 ringgit/ton, a 4.63% increase; the palm oil 05 contract rose 276 to close at 8,568 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 124 to close at 7,836 yuan/ton, a 1.61% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 302 to close at 9,046 yuan/ton, a 3.45% increase; the CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.84 to close at 49.2 cents/pound, a 1.74% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 17.9 to close at 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton, a 3.01% increase [4][7]. - As the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil improves marginally, the palm oil futures price continues to rebound. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the export demand has improved significantly. With the expected support of stocking demand before holidays, the pessimistic sentiment of a large - scale inventory build - up at the end of December has eased, and the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up. The news about Indonesian biodiesel is within expectations, with limited short - term actual impact. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm next year. Rapeseed oil has rebounded from an oversold level, approaching the upper pressure range. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. After the arrival of Australian canola, the pressing process is expected to start. In addition, the global supply is in a loose pattern, which suppresses the upside space [4][8]. - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the announcement of the Fed Chairman candidate. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed down, and the oil price continued to fluctuate at a low level. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally, with production decreasing and export demand improving significantly, leading to the continuous rebound of palm oil last week. In addition, there is expected support for stocking demand during holidays such as the Spring Festival, which may relieve the inventory pressure at the origin. The Indonesian government has reiterated the biodiesel policy, which is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year. Attention should be paid to the progress of the policy. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various contracts on December 26 and December 19, including CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. From December 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that the palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% [8]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased. According to different shipping survey agencies, the export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 41.25% compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, basically the same as in 2025. The government is currently testing the B50 standard, and the test cycle may last up to eight months [9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.1265 million tons, an increase of 0.0079 million tons from the previous week and 0.2164 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a decrease of 0.0139 million tons from the previous week; the palm oil inventory was 0.7 million tons, an increase of 0.0473 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.303 million tons, a decrease of 0.0255 million tons from the previous week [10]. Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOC) expects that in 2026, the country's palm oil export volume will increase to 16.2 million tons, and the production will moderately increase to 19.7 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the inventory will gradually return to normal. In November, due to weak demand in sub - Saharan Africa and the EU, the production and export volume decreased, and the inventory reached a high level since March 2019 [11]. - The Indonesian Meteorological Agency predicts that the rainy season will return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken and end by the end of the first quarter, which can optimize the harvest efficiency and logistics of palm plantations [12][13]. - The Indonesian government may fine palm oil enterprises and miners operating illegally in forest areas 8.5 billion US dollars in 2026, which may disrupt production and bring upward pressure on global prices [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [15][28][40].

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | | 第二部分 | 2025 年油脂行情回顾 | 3 | | 一、2025 | 年 1-3 月---节后交易逻辑切换，油脂呈现震荡上涨 | 3 | | 二、2025 | 年 4-5 月---油脂分化加剧，棕榈油下跌明显 | 3 | | 三、2025 | 年 6-8 月中---地缘及政策端扰动，油脂整体大幅上涨 | 4 | | 四、2025 | 年 8 月中-至今---上涨驱动不足热情退却，油脂高位回落 | 4 | | 第三部分 | 2026 年供需展望 | 5 | | 一、棕榈油：明年马印棕榈油产量仍有增量，马棕库存高企或持续至明年 | Q1 | 5 | | 二、印度明年预计增加棕榈油进口，中国需求或保持平稳 | | 11 | | 三、巴西 | B16 仍存不确定性，美国生柴方案推至明年 | 14 | | 四、全球菜籽新作丰产，国内仍受政策端扰动 | | 19 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 23 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-24 马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 油脂：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 蛋白粕：美豆交投清淡，双粕窄幅震荡 玉米/淀粉：购销清淡，价格窄幅震荡 生猪：供需均增，猪价宽幅震荡 天然橡胶：维持窄幅震荡 合成橡胶：盘面走势延续偏强 棉花：仓单低叠加政策预期，棉价延续走强 白糖：糖价震荡反弹，压力仍存 纸浆：近期高位区间波动，期货走势资金主导 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 油脂观点：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 逻辑：因原油上涨、美元走弱及对农产品的买盘，周一美豆类上涨，昨日 国内油脂表现分化，棕油相对偏强。从宏观环境看，因日本官员暗示已准 备必要时干预市场，周一日元兑美元走强；因对地缘局势紧张冲击供应的 担忧，周一原油价格上涨。从产业端看，南美豆丰产预期持续，巴西大豆 种植临近尾声，阿根廷大豆种植正常推进。CONAB数据显示，截至12月 20日巴西大豆种植进度为97.6%，去年同期97.8%，五年均值94.9%。而美 豆 ...

核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 多重利空因素 棕榈油震荡偏弱 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌112收于3906林吉特/吨，跌幅 2.79%；棕榈油05合约跌260收于8292元/吨，跌幅 3.04%；豆油05合约跌282收于7712元/吨，跌幅3.53%； 菜油05合约跌603收于8744元/吨，跌幅6.45%；CBOT豆 油主连跌2.24收于48.36美分/磅，跌幅4.43%；ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌23.9收于594.5加元/吨，涨幅3.86%。 ⚫ 油脂整体走弱，菜油领跌油脂，主要是澳菜籽到港压 榨，后续供应预期增多；新年度全球油菜籽供应宽松， ICE ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂年报 产地棕榈油减产周期即将到来 国内油脂一季度或震荡偏强 20251215 邓丹 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 交易咨询号：Z0011401 审核：姜世东 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，马棕9-11月超预期累库打压棕榈油价格大幅下跌，但库存大增的利空在盘面已基本反应。而东 南亚近期迎来洪涝灾害，这表明雨季的到来，加之拉尼娜的影响，同时今年5-8月 ...

棕榈油年报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 生柴政策存变数 棕榈油宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 12 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 2025年1-11月棕榈油价格加权指数处于涨跌，再次涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tight due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and oil mills being shut down. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the weakening demand from aquaculture, along with the negative impact of domestic soybean auctions and the substitution advantage of soybean meal, have led to a weakening of demand. The futures price of rapeseed meal has been dragged down by the decline of US soybeans and has been in a weak and volatile state recently [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also facing a complex situation. The increase in Canadian rapeseed production and the decline in exports have constrained the futures price. But the change in German bio - fuel policy has provided a substitution space for rapeseed oil, boosting its biodiesel consumption. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to a continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, which supports its price. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the abundant supply of soybean oil have limited the demand for rapeseed oil to mainly rigid demand. The rapeseed oil price has rebounded from a low level due to the German biodiesel policy and is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,599 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,323 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 615.3 Canadian dollars/ton, down 18 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,487 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 293 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 78 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 87 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The position of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76,367 lots, down 13,761 lots; the position of the rapeseed meal main contract was 590,971 lots, up 11,723 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 4,175 lots, up 14,932 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 75,885 lots, up 13,249 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,490, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,410 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil was 9,818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7,688.67 yuan/ton, down 20.24 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.96, down 0.04 [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0 tons, down 1,000 tons; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 523 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume was 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume was 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 51.99 billion yuan, up 6.904 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 10.46%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.73%, up 0.02% [2]. - Rapeseed oil options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 9.57%, down 0.14%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 10 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell for the ninth time in the past ten trading days, but the price remained above the low on Monday. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 4.50 Canadian dollars at 615.40 Canadian dollars per ton; the March rapeseed futures contract fell 5 Canadian dollars to 626.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US soybean is in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans, and the price of US soybeans has recently fallen from a high level [2]. - Statistics Canada reported that the national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced in September and the market expectation of 21.25 million tons. The export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased significantly this year, which has continued to constrain the futures price [3]. - The MPOB report showed that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market estimate of 2.66 million tons. The export of palm oil in Malaysia in the first 10 days was still declining, and the export was still weak, which dragged down the palm oil price. However, the palm oil production in the producing areas will enter the off - season later, and the implementation of seasonal production reduction needs to be watched [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 02 PART TWO 行情回顾 油脂：天气及政策扰动较多，观望为主 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏空 | （1）马来棕榈油产地库存高位、国内四季度到港预期增加；（2）国内四季度去库预期仍在；（3）菜油近端供给或迎来补充。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）产地方面印尼生柴政策积极推进中，B40带来支撑、但B50落地时间较远难带来驱动；（2）原定10月31日敲定的生柴RVO未落定，观望；（3）豆 油国内消费稳定、另有出口端支撑；（4）菜油冬季消费旺季在即。 | | 库存 | 观望 | 国内油脂总库存仍处高位，菜油因原料短缺持续去库，棕榈油因贸易商大量买船有补库预期，豆油则需关注美豆进口后的去向（国储/商 ...