油脂周报：油脂缺乏利多驱动，盘面整体震荡下跌 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. SPPOMA预计11月1-20日马棕产量环比增加10%，ITS预计11月1-20日马棕出口环比减少20%。 2.美国能源部计划撤销清洁能源示范办公室和能源效率与可再生能源办公室，并新增碳氢化合物和地热能源办 公室以及聚变能源办公室。 目录 3.本周受生柴政策以及高频数据利空等因素影响，油脂震荡偏弱运行。目前马棕逐渐进入减产季，马棕也将逐 渐去库，但预计整体仍处偏高水平，去库速度偏慢，印尼库存持续处于偏低水平，产地报价稳中有增，短期棕 榈油缺乏持续性利多，反弹高度可能有限。目前豆油没有一个比较突出的核心矛盾点，豆油价格更多跟随油脂 整体走势波动，上涨较为乏力，但也更为抗跌。短期国内菜籽供应不足，菜油进口量也较为有限，国内菜油预 计仍是继续去库，对菜油价格仍存在一定支撑。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—马棕11月存增产预期，12月出口税率 ...

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, the expected record - high production in 2025 may pressure the benchmark price, but Indonesia's B85 policy supports the market. Dalian palm oil futures are in an upward - trending oscillation and may continue to strengthen in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline after facing resistance below 9000 yuan [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report's less - than - expected reduction in US soybean production led to a decline in CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, high inventory and weak downstream demand may cause short - term callbacks in Dalian soybean oil [1]. - **Corn**: Due to factors like farmers' price - holding, logistics issues, and demand from deep - processing and feed sectors, corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance. The price may rebound but is limited by supply pressure, with attention on the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: India's export policy and Brazil's approaching end of the harvest season make the sugar market relatively calm. The price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate around 14 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton prices. In China, the short - term pressure from new cotton supply and weak downstream demand are offset by the relatively low inventory of spinning enterprises, resulting in short - term price pressure within a range [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November report lacks significant positive factors. With high domestic soybean inventory and expected reserve rotation, the meal market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [11]. - **Eggs**: High egg production inventory and weak demand lead to a short - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed and the willingness to support prices has increased, the market is expected to remain in a weak, oscillating state this week [15]. - **Pigs**: Weak spot prices and high market supply pressure the price, but there is support at low levels. The overall slow progress of November's planned slaughter may boost the price. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the basis was 334 yuan/ton, up 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the basis was - 54 yuan/ton, up 70.33%. The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton, down 8.89% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the basis was 367 yuan/ton, up 28.77% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread was 228 yuan/ton, up 2.70%; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton, down 13.73%; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread was 499 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 732 yuan/ton, up 3.68%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1667 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.05% - 0.45%. The basis was 25 yuan/ton, up 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, up 5.63%. The price at Shekou was 2330 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The import profit was 301 yuan/ton, up 5.00%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 11.15%. The position was 1859009, down 1.16% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2505 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 5 yuan/ton, up 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 spread between starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The profit of Shandong starch was 35 yuan/ton, down 2.78%. The position was 301830, down 0.43% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5404 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.85 cents/pound, up 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 16.46%. The position of the main contract was 370242, down 2.99%. The number of warehouse receipts was 8622, up 11.67%; the effective forecast was 183, down 84.53% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 256 yuan/ton, up 12.78%; in Kunming, it was 136 yuan/ton, up 27.10%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 3978 yuan/ton, down 1.41%; (outside quota) was 5036 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales were 1048.00 tons, up 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sales in Guangxi were 26.66 tons, down 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60%; in Guangxi, it was 93.90%, up 4.80%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 tons, down 41.20%; in Guangxi, it was 44.21 tons, up 62.90%; in Yunnan, it was 33.65 tons, up 26.60%. Sugar imports were 55.00 tons, up 37.50% [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 300%. The position of the main contract was 556440, down 1.15%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4401, up 5.29%; the effective forecast was 643, down 26.77% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) was 14594 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The CC Index (3128B) was 14806 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The FC Index (M: 1%) was 12913 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1124 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1144 yuan/ton, up 1.78%. The spread between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) was 1883 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 293.06 tons, up 70.4%; imports were 10.00 tons, up 42.9%; the bonded area inventory was 31.10 tons, up 8.0%. The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 3.5%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 tons, up 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises was - 1796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1471.00 billion yuan, up 19.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 6.30%, up 34.0%. The year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was - 9.10%, down 242.1%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and clothing accessories exports was - 15.96%, down 100.2% [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the basis was - 32 yuan/ton, down 52.38%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian ships in February was - 7 yuan/ton, down 800% [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the basis was 10 yuan/ton, up 25.00%. The import crushing profit of Canadian ships in January was 777 yuan/ton, down 3.48% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4215 yuan/ton, up 2.08%; the basis was - 295 yuan/ton, down 41.15%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the second - grade soybean contract was 3803 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; the basis was 147 yuan/ton, down 8.70% [11]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 244 yuan/ton, up 11.42%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 65 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.02%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.67, down 1.40%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 560 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; the 2601 spread was 602 yuan/ton, up 3.97% [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3235 yuan/500KG, down 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG, up 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.34%. The basis was - 51 yuan/500KG, down 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 4.04 yuan/jin, up 0.25%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.34, down 1.68%. The breeding profit was - 26.52 yuan/feather, down 8.51% [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 582 yuan/ton, up 103.57%. The price of the 2605 - contract was 12195 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the price of the 2601 - contract was 11775 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 420 yuan/ton, down 12.00%. The position of the main contract was 130675, down 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton, up 60.0; in Shandong, it was 12190 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Sichuan, it was 11340 yuan/ton, down 60.0; in Liaoning, it was 11640 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Guangdong, it was 12450 yuan/ton, down 160.0; in Hunan, it was 11440 yuan/ton, down 70.0; in Hebei, it was 11970 yuan/ton, up 70.0 [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 162927, down 0.74%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.60 yuan, unchanged. The weekly price of piglets was 17.25 yuan/kg, up 1.47%; the weekly price of sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly slaughter weight was 128.48 kg, up 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit was - 115 yuan/head, down 28.70%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 206 yuan/head, down 17.15%. The monthly number of fertile sows was 40350000, down 0.07% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to take a wait - and - see approach. Palm oil should be treated as range - bound with a downward bias, soybean oil's basis is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and rapeseed oil's basis is supported by the near - term tight supply situation [5] Report's Core View - Supply: Palm oil is bearish in the near - term, soybean oil is neutral, and rapeseed oil is bearish overall but bullish in the near - term. Reasons include high palm oil inventories in Malaysia, expected increase in China's palm oil imports in Q4, limited positive impact from the USDA report, and short - term raw material shortages for rapeseed oil [5] - Demand: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Factors include the active promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the undetermined US biodiesel RVO, stable domestic consumption and export support for soybean oil, and the upcoming peak consumption season for rapeseed oil in winter [5] - Inventory: A wait - and - see approach is advised. China's total oil inventory remains high, rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages, palm oil has inventory replenishment expectations, and the destination of imported US soybeans for soybean oil needs attention [5] - Macro and Policy: Bearish. The USDA report's export data was lower than expected, Indonesia's B50 implementation has uncertainties, the US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain, and Canada plans to increase biodiesel production capacity [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Impact Factors: Analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and macro - policy factors, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [5] - Trading Strategies: Suggests shorting the palm oil 01 contract, buying call options for protection, and conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on Y01 and shorting P01 [5] PART TWO: Market Review - Presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5 [7][11][12] PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [21][23][25] - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Displays data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [34][39] - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Presents data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [40][45] - India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference: Shows India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [46][50] - China's Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Displays data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit [52][54][56] - Weather and US Soybean Production: Shows the temperature and precipitation distribution in soybean - producing areas in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress [63][66][72] - US and Brazil Export Situation: Presents data on US soybean exports and Brazil's soybean exports [76][80] - China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Displays data on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [90] - Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, as well as Canada's soil moisture [91][100] - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Presents data on rapeseed exports from producing areas and China's rapeseed arrivals [102][104] - China's Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Displays data on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory [109][113]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely before the palm oil production in the producing areas decreases and the US biodiesel policy is postponed for release [3] - The report suggests that for single - sided trading, the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: The rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. The import tariff of US soybeans is 13%, still higher than the 3% tariff of South American soybeans [3] - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31, 2025 increased by 12.31% month - on - month. ITS and Amspec data indicate that the expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.19% and 4.31% respectively compared with the same period last month. The large increase in Malaysian palm oil production makes the probability of inventory accumulation in October relatively high. Attention should be paid to the October MPOB report [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: With the import of Australian and Russian rapeseed into China later, the domestic supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to China's import of Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other regions, as well as the progress of Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies [3] Strategy View and Outlook - **Single - sided trading**: Suggest that the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [5] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices. Overall, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5] Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, fats and oils fluctuated widely. The soybean - palm oil spread, rapeseed - palm oil spread, and rapeseed - soybean oil spread all fluctuated widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][17] Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the September MPOB report, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in September increased significantly to 2.361 million tons, much higher than expected. The production decreased slightly, but the decline was less than market expectations. The export increased month - on - month to 1.4276 million tons, in line with market expectations. The apparent consumption was 333,400 tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous month. This report is bearish [30] - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [31] - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [41] - **Domestic palm oil**: Data on import volume are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [51] Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of fats and oils are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [54] Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons (2.76%) from the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons (7.36%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons (2.36%) from the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons (17.29%) compared with 505,400 tons last year [63] - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in coastal areas was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 38,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week [66] Disk Import Profit - As of November 7, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the December shipment was - 215 yuan/ton [70]

机构观点 铜冠金源期货：宏观方面，美国裁员数创20年来新高，美债收益率走低，12月降息路径仍不明朗，美元 指数震荡收跌；油价弱势震荡运行。基本面上，利空因素逐步被交易，等待下周一MPOB报告发布，关 注累库情况带来的指引。11月产地进入减产季，且生柴政策有炒作反复的预期，对价格有一定支撑。预 计短期棕榈油震荡偏弱运行。 宁证期货：棕榈油在11月有减产预期，一定程度支撑期价；国内方面豆棕价差快速修复，棕榈油性价比 逐渐提升，需求在近期提振较为明显。但近月基本面继续施压，短期内棕榈油空头利润兑现离场，底部 调整。 11月7日，棕榈油期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报8688.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.32%。 【消息面汇总】 截至10月31日当周，国内棕榈油库存为59.28万吨，环比减少2.36%，同比增加17.29%。 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年11月1-5日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同 期增加5.12%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.32%，产量环比上月同期增加6.80%。 BMI预测2025/26年度全球棕榈油产量将增长1.8%，达到8,010万吨；其中印尼产量将增长3.3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy faces opposition from the mining association due to increased production costs, and its implementation time may be postponed with uncertainties. The US biodiesel policy remains unclear, and the policy has cooled recently. International oil prices are running weakly at a low level due to eased geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase expectations [4][47] - The October MPOB report shows that the inventory increased more than expected due to a significant decline in domestic consumption in Malaysia. High - frequency data in October indicates that production maintains an upward trend, and export demand shows signs of weakening. The ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.44 million tons. Indonesia's September production was remarkable, with an expected annual production increase of 10%, and the origin quotes are generally lowered, with supply becoming more relaxed. India's October palm oil imports declined, verifying the weakening export demand at the origin, but there is still potential rigid import demand. There were many palm oil purchases for the October - November shipping period. Currently, domestic inventory is at a low level, and with more arrivals later, inventory is expected to increase, and recent transactions have increased [4][47] - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to a US dollar liquidity crisis, and the US dollar index is oscillating strongly. If the shutdown ends, attention should be paid to the guidance of economic data such as employment on the interest - rate cut path. The high - level Sino - US meeting at the end of October sent a positive signal to stabilize the global economy. Fundamentally, the expectation of loose supply and demand is strengthened, and oils and fats continue to run weakly. Waiting for the November MPOB report to be released. From November to March of the next year, the origin enters the production - reduction season, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. As the bearish sentiment of the biodiesel policy is gradually digested, the Indonesian B50 theme may still be hyped, which may support the market. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate weakly in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term (November), after the price stops falling and stabilizes, it will enter a low - level oscillation [4][48] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - Since October, the oils and fats sector has continued to weaken after a post - holiday high opening. In the domestic market, at the end of October, the palm oil 01 contract fell 464 to close at 8828 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.03%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 12 to close at 8128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.15%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 622 to close at 9422 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.19%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 170 to close at 4205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 3.89%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.82 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 1.66%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 34 to close at 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, a rise of 5.63%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 360 to 8700 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.97%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong rose 20 to 8320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.24%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 500 to 9750 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.88% [9] - After the National Day in October, palm oil opened high and then continued to weaken. The high opening was due to the continuous rise of the foreign market during the holiday and the post - holiday make - up increase. The MPOB report released in October showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased more than the market expected, mainly because domestic consumption declined significantly. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production maintained an upward trend, and export volume showed a weakening trend. It was expected that the inventory at the end of October would increase significantly, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the price. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10%, and the September production was remarkable. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy was opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as capital constraints, the implementation time of B50 originally planned for 2026 will be postponed, and the hype sentiment of the theme has cooled. Coupled with the weak oscillation of international oil prices and the weak sentiment in the commodity market in October, palm oil oscillated weakly [10] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - Malaysia's September palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%; imports were 78,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.95%; the ending inventory at the end of September increased to 2.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%; domestic consumption was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.53%. The inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and the report was generally neutral to bearish [21] 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.50% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.20% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.55% month - on - month. From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with production in the Malay Peninsula increasing by 4.54%, Sabah by 21.99%, Sarawak by 16.69%, and Borneo by 20.45% [24] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,639,089 tons, a 5.19% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% month - on - month increase. According to SGS data, it was estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,282,036 tons, a 26.54% increase compared with the same period last month [24] 2.3 Indonesia Situation - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.54 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the production was 4.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.16 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's total palm oil production was 39.04 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the exports were 2.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil exports were 22.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.01 million tons [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's domestic palm oil consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the consumption was 2.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative domestic palm oil consumption was 16.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.54 million tons, compared with 2.57 million tons last month and 2.45 million tons in the same period last year [30] 2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In September 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.605 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons in August and 1.06 million tons in September 2024. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative vegetable oil imports were 13.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 550,000 tons [33] - In September 2025, India's palm oil imports were 830,000 tons, compared with 991,000 tons last month and 527,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative palm oil imports were 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 503,000 tons, compared with 368,000 tons last month and 384,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 4.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 272,000 tons, compared with 257,000 tons last month and 153,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 2.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 650,000 tons [34] 2.5 China's Oil Imports - In September 2025, China's palm oil imports were 150,000 tons, compared with 340,000 tons last month and 220,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 1.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 157,000 tons, compared with 138,000 tons last month and 146,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.604 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 294,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 38,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons last month and 104,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 375,000 tons, compared with 933,000 tons in the same period last year [39] - In September 2025, the total imports of the above three major oils were 345,000 tons, compared with 498,000 tons in August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports of the three major oils were 3.729 million tons, compared with 4.313 million tons in the same period last year [39][42] 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3246 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 306,600 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons compared with the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons compared with the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 135,900 tons compared with the same period last year [44] 3. Summary and Outlook - The content is consistent with the core views, including the situation of biodiesel policies, production and demand, and macro - aspects, and the outlook for palm oil prices in the short and medium - to - long term [47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expectation that the supply of oils and fats in both the producing regions and the domestic market will be abundant, oils and fats, mainly palm oil and rapeseed oil, are expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to short-term short, and exit when the price in the producing regions stabilizes or there is new positive driving force [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil producing regions have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter will increase. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but it is uncertain how much will enter commercial crushing. There are expectations of reconciliation between China and Canada, and the bumper harvest in producing regions such as Canada and Australia this year is marginally bearish [5]. - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. In the producing regions, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation time of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, but there is an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5]. - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously destocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of restocking due to a large number of vessel purchases by traders. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles to implementation next year. The US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Short - term shorting is recommended [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short palm oil and rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, go long Y01 and short P01. For options, buy call options for protection. Risk factors to focus on include unexpected production cuts and policy disturbances [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of different contracts such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil. The data sources are Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature data of Southeast Asia in the past and future periods, including the precipitation in the past 14 days, the precipitation anomaly in the past 14 days, the precipitation forecast in the next 7 days, the temperature anomaly in the next 7 days, and the precipitation and temperature anomaly in the next 8 - 14 days [18][20][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is GAPKI and the research institute of Guomao Futures [29][33][31]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is MPOB and the research institute of Guomao Futures [34][40][39]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: It presents the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [41][45][44]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of palm oil in China from 2021 to 2025. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [47][51][58]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the US soybean good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress from 2021 to 2025 [59][61][67]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It shows the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and export volume to China of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are USDA, ANEC, Steel Union, and the research institute of Guomao Futures [71][76][82]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It presents China's weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [86]. - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: It shows the precipitation forecast, precipitation distribution, and temperature distribution in the Canadian and European rapeseed - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the Canadian soil moisture [87][96]. - **Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: It presents the FOB price of rapeseed, weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, expected domestic arrival volume of rapeseed, and domestic arrival volume of rapeseed oil. The data sources are public information and the research institute of Guomao Futures [99][101][111]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and weekly inventory of domestic rapeseed oil from 2021 to 2025 [105][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 215 to close at 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 358 to close at 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 66 to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 339 to close at 9,422 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.47%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.67 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 5.5 to close at 637.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.87% [4]. - Palm oil broke through support and continued to weaken. High - frequency data showed that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil slowed down in October while production maintained an upward trend. It is expected that the ending inventory at the end of October will accumulate more than expected, supply will become looser, and origin quotes will be lowered. In addition, Indonesia's production data was impressive, and its 2025 production is expected to maintain a large increase. Indonesia's B50 policy has been opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as funding constraints, the implementation time of the biodiesel policy may be postponed [4]. - Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but there were large differences regarding a December rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut declined significantly. The US dollar index fluctuated upwards, and oil prices fluctuated. Fundamentally, the expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil at the end of October has increased. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 has been impressive, supply is becoming looser, and the implementation time of the biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Various contract price changes from October 24 to October 31 are presented. For example, the CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 50.29 to 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell from 4,420 to 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the DCE palm oil contract fell from 9,122 to 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%, etc. There are also data on spot prices and price differences between various oils [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and export data: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's single - yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in October show different growth rates. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by about 10% to 56 - 57 million tons, and exports are expected to be 30 - 31 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly [8][9]. - Inventory data: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country increased compared to last week and the same period last year. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil in key regions across the country as of the week of October 31, 2025, increased compared to the previous week [10]. Industry News - The US will reduce tariffs on 1,711 Malaysian export products, including palm oil, to below 19%, which is expected to enhance the price competitiveness of Malaysian products in the US market [11]. - As of now in this fiscal year, India's palm oil planting area has reached 52,113 hectares, and the total planting area under the "National Mission on Edible Oils - Oil Palm" since its launch in August 2021 has reached 241,000 hectares [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities aims to strengthen the downstream development of Sabah's palm oil industry, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah is Malaysia's largest crude palm oil - producing region, accounting for 22.1% of the country's total crude palm oil production in 2024 [12]. Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, price differences, inventory, and production and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia [14][17][19] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, and the industry is currently in a low - volatility oscillation phase with no clear unilateral trend in the short - term [5]. Core View of the Report - The supply situation shows that palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is bearish, and rapeseed oil is bullish; demand is in a wait - and - see state; inventory has marginal bullish factors; macro and policy aspects are also in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the investment view is to wait and see, and it is recommended to wait or participate through buying options [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has high inventory at the origin and low domestic purchases; soybean oil mill crushing volume increases; rapeseed oil crushing and imports both decrease [5]. - **Demand**: In the origin, Indonesia's B50 is being actively promoted but has bearish disturbances; the US bio - diesel RVO is undetermined; the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower oil trading volume compared to the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic oil inventory is decreasing. Palm oil inventory fluctuates slightly under weak supply and demand. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing due to raw material shortages [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders may bring new directions; Indonesia's B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year but faces obstacles; the US bio - diesel RVO is uncertain; there is an expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Currently, the oil market is in a low - volatility oscillation phase. There is no clear unilateral trend for now, but factors such as the Malaysian production reduction season, origin bio - diesel policies, and international trade policies may bring new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see or participate through buying options [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Go long on far - month oil and short on meal; Risk Focus: Crude oil fluctuations, policy disturbances; Options: Buy volatility of palm oil and soybean oil (collar options) [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trends of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows precipitation and temperature data including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomalies, and future 7 - 14 - day precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [17][19][22]. - **Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are provided [31][35]. - **Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 - 2025 are presented [36][42]. - **India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 is given [43][47]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply and Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [49][53]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It includes future 15 - day temperature and precipitation distributions in Brazilian and US soybean - producing areas, US soybean good - to - excellent rate, and harvest progress [61][63][68]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Data on US soybean cumulative export sales volume, export volume to China, and Brazilian soybean monthly export volume from 2021 - 2026 are provided [74][79]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Information on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, domestic soybean oil production by pressing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 is presented [89]. - **Rapeseed - Related Situations**: It includes future 15 - day precipitation and temperature distributions in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed weekly export volume, Canadian rapeseed import hedging profit, domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil expected arrival volume, Chinese rapeseed weekly pressing volume, rapeseed oil production by oil mills, rapeseed oil pick - up volume, and weekly inventory from 2021 - 2025 [90][99][104].