油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 棕榈油：节后棕榈油高开。马来西亚棕榈油处于季节性减产周期，2月1-20日产量环比下降，出口环比上月同期下降。美国 与印尼达成贸易协议，印尼棕榈油对美国出口预计将增至300万吨，支撑棕榈油需求。3月印尼或将提高出口税，对马棕出 口有所支撑。春节期间，受国际原油价格上涨带动，棕榈油价格上行。棕榈油自身基本面偏弱，印度斋月节备货需求下降， 马棕出口数据较疲弱压制棕榈油涨幅。国内2月买船增加，库存高企，需求偏弱，短期棕榈油震荡运行，关注美国生柴政策。 豆油：豆油震荡偏强。巴西大豆丰产预期，美国环境保护署将于周三向白宫提交新的生物燃料混合量授权提案，该规则可 能会在3月底前最终确定，生柴政策有乐观预期，支撑美豆油需求前景，同时中东地区地缘局势恶化，原油价格大幅上涨， 美豆油跟随走强。国内大豆进口处于低位，到港量下降，节后油厂开机逐渐恢复，库存小幅增加。关注美生柴政策，短期 豆油震荡运行。 菜油：菜油震荡运行。全球菜籽供应较宽松，国内方面，截至2月20日，国内菜籽库存增至9.8万吨 ...

油脂逐渐回归基本面 短期油脂或震荡偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月，油脂整体呈现震荡回落，1 月油脂经历了一波宏观情绪与资金共 振带来的上涨后，1 月底开始在川普提名鹰派美联储主席候选人，市场预期 货币政策收紧，同时美伊局势缓和地缘政治风险溢价有所消退，以及临近春 节长假前市场避险情绪增加，获利了结集中等，商品整体出现了明显的回调， 油脂亦受此影响跟随下跌。在此期间，Y-9 05 以及 OI-P 05 持续走扩。 | | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | 一、行情回顾 3 | | | 二、马棕 | 2 月或继续减产去库，印尼 3 月出口表现可能欠佳 4 | | 三、印度 | 1 月棕榈油进口较多，豆油存在洗船行为 8 | | 四、中加菜籽反倾销或在 | 3 月裁定，国内油脂库存仍较为偏高 10 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | 免责声明 | 16 | 农产品板块研发报告 【市场展望】 随着 3 月进入棕榈油 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 国际大豆基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、供应端：南美天气扰动 | 美豆库存预计仍然较高 | 3 | | 二、需求端：美豆需求好转 | 南美出口整体缓慢 | 5 | | 三、综合分析：供应压力反应有限 | 价格整体偏强 | 7 | | 第三部分 国内粕类基本面情况 | 8 | | | 一、供应题材反复 成交整体放缓 | 8 | | | 二、供应逐步收紧 豆粕继续去库 | 9 | | | 三、菜籽菜粕供应逐步改善 | 库存整体维持低位 | 10 | | 第四部分 综合分析与后市展望 | 12 | | | 一、综合分析 | 12 | | | 二、策略分析 | 13 | | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 粕类研发报告 粕类 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 宏观影响增加 粕类宽幅震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 本月美豆整体呈现强势上涨状态，市场利多因素主要集中在后续出口可能出 现好转以及南美天气扰动方面 ...

逻辑：油脂期货方面，利好因素消化，棕榈油出口表现弱势拖累油脂高位 回落。棕榈油：由于出口数据疲软跌幅明显，汇易网消息显示船运调查机 构称2月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油环比降低12.11%到16.05%。豆油：美豆及 美豆油走势维持高位震荡，主要受到美国生柴政策预期利好和出口需求乐 观等支撑，关注3月份相关政策落地情况。国内方面，市场对大豆通关时 长存在顾虑，同时担忧储备大豆拍卖，以及受到棕榈油连续下跌拖累，走 势有所转弱。菜油：加拿大菜籽期货受到原油及美豆油支撑，价格发弹至 相对高位后吸引技术性投机买盘走势偏强。国内方面，菜籽采购增加，澳 洲菜籽逐步通关进入压榨，现货库存偏低但是远期供应转宽松，预计价格 跟随油脂趋势震荡为主。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-27 橡胶、棉花涨势放缓 油脂：油脂震荡回落 蛋白粕：市场追涨情绪不高，盘面上涨动力减弱 玉米：玉米高位盘整 生猪：供需宽松，猪价低位震荡 天然橡胶：盘面偏多情绪维持 合成橡胶：库存数据高企，盘面走弱 棉花：冲高回落，可阶段性止盈 白糖：印度增产预期下调，糖价中长期震荡偏弱 纸浆：现货仍未恢复正常， ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 是一 | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | ななな | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 美国时间周二，总统特朗普新推出的10%的全球关税开始生效,这标志着白宫开始采取行动,以延续特朗普的贸 易议程，日前特朗普威胁要将税率提高至15%、但截至10%的税率生效之时，尚未正式发布行政令提高税率。今 日美豆受此拖累走弱，连粕亦跟随下跌。春节假期美豆延续偏强格局，短期美豆出口数据以及压榨数据表现较 好,继续提振美豆价格。对于26 ...

| | | 国产大豆期货方面表现为减仓小幅回调。国产大豆现货方面较之节前小幅上涨。国产大豆和进口大豆价差在2月 份快速扩大之后，今日从高位开始回调。美盘太豆价格从近期的高点回落，春节期间美国生柴政策预期乐观以 及美豆新作平衡表供需结构同比收紧，外盘表现偏强。不过美国关税政策存在抗动,虽然最高法院驳回了美国 总统此前的关税计划,但随后美总统宣布将全球进口商品临时关税提高至15%,因此对于美豆的出口需求方面产 生了新的变数。后续持续关注政策端的导向。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 美国时间周二，总统特朗普新推出的10%的全球关税开始生效,这标志着白宫开始采取行动,以延续特朗普的贸 易议程，日前特朗普威胁要将税率提高至15%、但截至10%的税率生效之时，尚未正式发布行政令提高税率。今 日美豆受此拖累走弱，连粕亦跟随下跌。春节假期美豆延续偏强格局，短期美豆出口数据以及压榨数据表现较 好,继续提振美豆价格。对于26/27年度美豆的供需平衡表展望,显示出大豆面积同比增加,单产处于历史高 位，出口和压榨均同比增长，大豆期末库存微增，库存消费比同比下降，奠定了新一年度的供需结构同比收紧 的状态,美国市场呈现油强于粕的状态。 【豆油& ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by the biodiesel policy and improved export prospects due to macro - changes. However, the US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly depends on the Argentine weather and the US monthly supply - demand report [5][13]. - The downward pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved subsequent supply and high previous crushing profits. The soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decline, but the current price has already reflected the subsequent de - stocking, so the impact is relatively limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal also showed a downward trend this week, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal. As the subsequent soybean meal spot may gradually tighten, the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively good. The supply of rapeseed meal has gradually improved recently [6][22]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures rose significantly this week, mainly influenced by the biodiesel policy and macro - changes. The fundamentals of the US soybean market remained stable, with a decrease in exports and stable crushing. The Brazilian price support still exists, and the Argentine new - crop supply decreased due to weather. The main influencing factor for the US soybean market may be the Argentine weather, and the export increment space is limited [5]. - The downward pressure on domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved supply and high previous crushing profits. The subsequent soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, and the soybean meal inventory may decline. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large. The domestic rapeseed meal also declined, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal, and the subsequent supply has improved [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy (views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Macro Impact Increases, US Soybeans Rise Significantly - The US soybean futures rose significantly this week, driven by macro and biodiesel factors. The US Treasury's tax guidance on biodiesel and improved export prospects due to macro - changes led to the upward movement. The US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly comes from the limited short - term export growth and the upcoming US monthly supply - demand report [13]. 2. Brazilian Quotes Remain Firm, Argentine Weather Still Causes Disturbance - Brazilian quotes decreased this week but still remained at a high level. The old - crop pressure in Brazil is relatively limited, while the new - crop market pressure is obvious. The Brazilian export shipment speed has accelerated. The main influencing factor in the Argentine market is the weather, and the yield is subject to uncertainty [16]. 3. Futures Pressure Increases, Trading Remains Strong - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a downward trend this week due to the repair of crushing profits and reduced concerns about soybean supply shortages. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, especially the forward basis trading. The market is expected to see a slight de - stocking of soybean meal this week. The futures market is complex, and it is likely to show a more volatile trend [19]. 4. Supply Pressure Increases, Rapeseed Meal Declines Overall - The domestic rapeseed meal futures also declined this week, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread continued to widen. The decline was affected by both soybean meal and improved subsequent supply. The demand for rapeseed meal is average, and the supply has improved recently. The international rapeseed market provides some support to the price of rapeseed meal, but the overall supply is relatively loose [22] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as the Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing data [26][29]. Foreign Premium - The data presents the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the CNF price of rapeseed [32]. Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - The data includes the US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [37][44]. Supply - The data shows the soybean and rapeseed import volumes and weekly crushing volumes [50]. Demand Side - The data presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volumes [53]. Inventory - The data shows the soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [57]

棕榈油月报 关注马棕油去库节奏 棕榈油仍有支撑 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国和伊朗地缘局势不确定较大，油价止跌上涨，对油 脂板块形成支撑。生柴政策方面。生柴政策方面，前期 预期2026年下半年开始实施B50政策，由于资金和技术等 因素的限制，印尼政府计划取消在2026年实施B50政策， 但相关研究工作仍在进行；印尼政府启动全国性专项整 治行动，旨在全面收回被非法采矿和油棕种植侵占的国 有林区，也影响棕榈油的生产。美国特朗普政府预计将 在3月初敲定2026年生物柴油政策，预计将把生物燃料掺 混义务量维持在52-56亿加仑，将放弃惩罚可再生燃料及 其原料进口的计划；美国发布的45Z拟议规则，维持税收 抵免范围在北美原料。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 各机构高频数据显示，1月马棕油产量环比减少，出口需 求持续改善，主要是印度1月棕榈油进口量大幅增加，外 媒报道印度1月进口 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 油脂油料：国内供应宽松 油粕外强内弱 （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 本周油粕价格冲高回落。贵金属高位回落，引发资金集体抛售，油脂油料价格因此回落。直至下半周， 油脂油料价格企稳。国际油脂油料偏强，CBOT大豆涨至近两个月高点。 国内：玉米春节前震荡区间收窄。本周玉米近月2603合约持仓下降，5月合约持仓小幅增加，3月向5月 合约的持仓转移较为有限，春节前资金离场迹象明显。东北玉米购销活跃度下降，深加工补库也基本接 近尾声，部分烘干塔也已停收，现价格下东北产区贸易商多观望。华北地区玉米价格各市场主体之间有 所不同。山东、河北深加工企业价格基本维持稳定，保持区间内窄幅调整，价格有涨有跌，变动幅度有 限。基层农户售粮节奏依然维持相对平均的状态，部分地区反馈农户售粮甚至有所减少，粮点收购意愿 增强，市场价格有所提升，普遍较上周上涨10-30元/吨。河南个别地区受深加工企业价格下跌影响，基 层价格窄幅下调。销区市场玉米价格继续稳定运行，购销活动因临近春节而趋于清淡 。春节假期前， 价格将维持窄幅震荡的格局，出 ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 5, 2026 - **Report Source**: Baocheng Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be strong, and the reference view is also strong. [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the US soybean market has improved, leading to a strong rebound in futures prices. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak. After the pre - holiday stocking by downstream users, the demand for soybean meal has declined, resulting in inventory accumulation. The high operating rate of oil mills has alleviated the expected shortage of soybean supply. The losses in the livestock farming sector further suppress the demand for soybean meal. At the end of the stocking period, terminal transactions have decreased, and the spot market is weak. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased, and the oil mills' production has been steadily increasing, so the supply pressure remains high. The short - term price of soybean meal will rebound following the US soybean futures prices, but the rebound amplitude will be restricted by domestic industrial chain pressure. [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The core driver of the oil market comes from the proposed 45Z biofuel tax credit rule issued by the US Treasury Department, which allows the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials, marginally benefiting the consumption of US soybean oil and strengthening the market's optimistic expectations for biofuel policies. Coupled with the increase in international oil prices due to geopolitical situations, the overnight CBOT soybean oil futures rose strongly, driving the overall domestic oil market higher. However, domestic fundamentals restrict the upward movement. Palm oil is supported by the expected improvement in Malaysia's supply - demand situation in January, but the high domestic inventory and light spot trading limit its upward space. In the short term, the palm oil market is mainly affected by sentiment and capital, with futures prices moderately strong. [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6] - **Core Logic**: It is supported by the cost of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. [6]