新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025年度十大意见领袖"。 2025年，中国经济在转型攻坚中稳步向好，新动能加快培育，政策协同发力支撑经济回升向好、行稳致 远。各界意见领袖以敏锐的时代洞察、理性的专业表达和广泛的社会影响力，聚焦民生关切、解读发展 逻辑、传递市场信心，在多元视角中凝聚共识，在时代浪潮中引领思考。 本次评选由评委会综合"专业性、影响力、创新性、前瞻性、活跃度"五大维度，经评审团投票，并参考 作品出产率、互联网声量等数据，综合评选出最终获奖结果。 北京大学国家发展研究院副教授张俊妮荣膺"2025年度十大意见领袖"！ "2025年度十大意见领袖"名单揭晓 本次评选由评委会综合"专业性、影响力、创新性、前瞻性、活跃度"五大维度，经评审团投票，并参考 作品出产率、互联网声量等数据，综合评选出最终获奖结果。 北京大学国家发展研究院副教授张俊妮荣膺"2025年度十大意见领袖"！ 张俊妮围绕中国人口形势发表深度研究与公开观点，通过严谨测算警示超低生育率可能带来的人口规模 大幅回落、深度老龄化与劳动力结构失衡等长期风险，直指低结婚率、低生育意愿、托育供给不足等现 实约束，并从普惠托育、生 ...

Core Insights - China's total population reached 1.408 billion by the end of 2024, marking three consecutive years of negative growth since 2022 [1][2] - The total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.05, the lowest since 1944, indicating a significant decline in birth rates [2][7] - The gender ratio shows 719.09 million males and 689.19 million females, with a gender ratio of 104.3 [1] - Urban population stands at 943.5 million, while rural population is 464.78 million [1] Population Structure - Age distribution: 16.9% (0-14 years), 62.2% (15-59 years), and 20.9% (60 years and above) [2] - The elderly population (65 years and above) accounts for 15.4% of the total population [2] Regional Population Dynamics - Eastern provinces have seen an increase in population share to 40.32%, while all three northeastern provinces experienced negative growth [3] - In 2024, 20 provinces reported population decline, with Shandong, Henan, and Heilongjiang showing the largest decreases [7] - Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang recorded the highest population increases [7] Detailed Population Data by Region - Beijing: 21.83 million, decrease of 0.126 million from 2023 [4] - Shanghai: 24.80 million, increase of 0.072 million from 2023 [4] - Jiangsu: 85.26 million, no change from 2023 [4] - Guangdong: 12.78 million, increase of 0.074 million from 2023 [4] - The overall trend indicates a significant population outflow from northeastern provinces [7] Implications and Recommendations - Immediate action is required to address the declining birth rate, with a focus on incentivizing childbirth [15] - Strategies to combat population decline in rural areas include developing satellite cities and future industries [14]