2025.12.14 本文字数：1283，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 马晓华 曾连续多年占据全国劳动力平均年龄最高位置的东北三省，排名近期出现变化，内蒙古成为当前全国劳 动力平均年龄最老的省份。 12月14日，中央财经大学人力资本与劳动经济研究中心发布《中国人力资本报告2025》（下称《报 告》）。数据显示，2023年全国劳动力人口平均年龄为39.66岁。劳动力年龄结构最年长的五个省份依 次为内蒙古、黑龙江、辽宁、吉林、四川；最年轻的五个省份依次为海南、西藏、广东、贵州、新疆 （由高到低排列）。 "内蒙古和东三省的年龄结构变化，除了受本地人口年龄结构影响，人口流动也是重要因素，而人口流 动又直接受产业结构、相关政策及政府支持力度的影响。"中国人力资本度量项目负责人李海峥教授对 第一财经表示。 根据辽宁省2023年国民经济和社会发展统计公报，该年度辽宁省际净流入人口达8.6万人，扭转了自 2012年以来连续11年人口省际净流出的趋势。 类似地，2023年《吉林省国民经济和社会发展统计公报》显示，全省常住人口为2339.41万人，较上年 末净减少15.37万人。尽管人口仍在减少，但与往年（如2021年减 ...

2025.12. 14 本文字数：1283，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 马晓华 曾连续多年占据全国劳动力平均年龄最高位置的东北三省，排名近期出现变化，内蒙古成为当前全国 劳动力平均年龄最老的省份。 12月14日，中央财经大学人力资本与劳动经济研究中心发布《中国人力资本报告2025》（下称《报 告》）。数据显示，2023年全国劳动力人口平均年龄为39.66岁。劳动力年龄结构最年长的五个省份 依次为内蒙古、黑龙江、辽宁、吉林、四川；最年轻的五个省份依次为海南、西藏、广东、贵州、新 疆（由高到低排列）。 "内蒙古和东三省的年龄结构变化，除了受本地人口年龄结构影响，人口流动也是重要因素，而人口 流动又直接受产业结构、相关政策及政府支持力度的影响。"中国人力资本度量项目负责人李海峥教 授对第一财经表示。 东北三省的人口外流高峰开始更早（自2010年代初起），持续时间较长，但近年来外流速度有所放 缓。 "辽宁人口实现净增长，主要归因于人口迁移流动。目前其出生人口仍少于死亡人口，但由于辽宁近 年来推出一系列有力政策，例如较具吸引力的人才政策，吸引了部分高学历人才。同时，辽宁营商环 境持续优化，资本投入增加，就业 ...

"辽宁人口实现净增长，主要归因于人口迁移流动。目前其出生人口仍少于死亡人口，但由于辽宁近年 来推出一系列有力政策，例如较具吸引力的人才政策，吸引了部分高学历人才。同时，辽宁营商环境持 续优化，资本投入增加，就业机会与环境逐步改善，外流人口开始回流。相比外出，在辽发展的性价比 更高。"辽宁大学公共管理学院人口、资源与环境中心主任宋丽敏对第一财经分析称。 根据辽宁省2023年国民经济和社会发展统计公报，该年度辽宁省际净流入人口达8.6万人，扭转了自 2012年以来连续11年人口省际净流出的趋势。 类似地，2023年《吉林省国民经济和社会发展统计公报》显示，全省常住人口为2339.41万人，较上年 末净减少15.37万人。尽管人口仍在减少，但与往年（如2021年减少24万、2022年减少27万）相比，降 幅已明显收窄，外流速度减缓。此外，根据长春市官方发布的信息，2023年全市引进并留住高校毕业生 首次突破10万人，达到10.2万人。 曾连续多年占据全国劳动力平均年龄最高位置的东北三省，排名近期出现变化，内蒙古成为当前全国劳 动力平均年龄最老的省份。 12月14日，中央财经大学人力资本与劳动经济研究中心发布《中国人 ...

曾连续多年占据全国劳动力平均年龄最高位置的东北三省，排名近期出现变化，内蒙古成为当前全国劳 动力平均年龄最老的省份。 根据辽宁省2023年国民经济和社会发展统计公报，该年度辽宁省际净流入人口达8.6万人，扭转了自 2012年以来连续11年人口省际净流出的趋势。 类似地，2023年《吉林省国民经济和社会发展统计公报》显示，全省常住人口为2339.41万人，较上年 末净减少15.37万人。尽管人口仍在减少，但与往年（如2021年减少24万、2022年减少27万）相比，降 幅已明显收窄，外流速度减缓。此外，根据长春市官方发布的信息，2023年全市引进并留住高校毕业生 首次突破10万人，达到10.2万人。 如果说东北三省是老龄化进程的"先行者"——很早就因体制转型、经济增长放缓和低生育率步入深度老 龄化，那么目前该地区已进入相对缓慢的"平台期"。而内蒙古凭借过去的能源繁荣和相对较高的生育 率，老龄化进程一度慢于东北。然而近年来，随着经济转型压力增大、青年人口外流加速以及长期低生 育率的累积效应显现，其劳动力平均年龄迅速上升。 据官方数据，内蒙古的出生率自2017年以来持续下降，2023年出生率为5.00‰，2024年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing regional economic layout and promoting coordinated regional development as a key task in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5]. Group 1: Regional Economic Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need to leverage the "four strategies" to promote balanced development between the north and south, marking a significant strategic consideration [5][6]. - The trend of market focus and international trade shifting towards the south is expected to ease, leading to a more balanced distribution towards the north and central-west regions over the next 5 to 10 years [4][9]. Group 2: Key Strategies for Reducing Regional Disparities - Reducing regional disparities is identified as the core goal of coordinated regional development, with a focus on facilitating the free flow of factors, particularly population [2][11]. - Key pathways to reduce income level disparities include enhancing education and training to improve labor mobility and removing barriers to movement [2][11]. Group 3: Specific Regional Focus - For the western region, the focus should be on stabilizing and developing ethnic and border areas, while promoting the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle for high-quality growth [7]. - The northeast region, despite structural pressures, is expected to gain new momentum from evolving international circumstances [7]. - The central region is positioned as a crucial hub, requiring infrastructure development and industrial upgrades to leverage its geographical advantages [7]. - The eastern region must focus on technological and industrial innovation to maintain its role as an economic powerhouse [7]. Group 4: Population Mobility Trends - Future population trends indicate a concentration towards urban clusters and central cities, with some areas experiencing population decline [12]. - Policies should prioritize comprehensive development needs, including health, education, and employment, to enhance the willingness and ability of populations to move across regions [12][11]. Group 5: Implementation Mechanisms - Effective implementation of regional strategies requires coordination among multiple government departments and the use of advanced technologies for spatial planning [6][13]. - The article discusses the importance of avoiding pollution transfer and low-level repetitive construction in the context of east-west industrial cooperation [13].

21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道我国幅员辽阔、人口众多，各地资源禀赋差别大，统筹区域发展从 来都是一个重大课题。在"十五五"规划建议部署的战略任务中，"优化区域经济布局，促进区域协调发 展"被单列为一项重点任务。 刘云中表示，未来5到10年，市场重心与国际贸易流向向南方倾斜的趋势将缓和，受国际局势演变等影 响，市场将向北方、中西部更均衡地分布。另外，区域战略叠加与政策效应的发挥，将推动南北方更均 衡地发展。 刘云中指出，缩小区域差距是区域协调发展的核心目标，其中促进要素自由流动，特别是人口自由流动 尤为重要。受综合调控、生活成本等因素影响，接下来北京、上海、广州等超大城市的人口规模未必会 持续增长，但未来大部分人口仍将进一步向城市群、都市圈和中心城市集中。 刘云中认为，缩小区域发展及收入水平差距的关键路径，是通过教育与培训，提升人口或劳动力要素流 动能力，并破除流动成本障碍。在此基础上，实施区域导向与空间导向政策，提升基础设施和公共服务 水平，因地制宜发展产业，引导人口合理流动，促进区域协调发展。 "十五五"规划建议首次提出发挥"四大战略"叠加效应，促进南北方协调发展也首次被写入五年规划建 议，这背后有怎样 ...

未来三年的中国楼市，将是一场"冰与火"的分化大戏。一边是三四线城市在人口外流、产业萎缩中持续阴跌，甚至跌回十年前水平；另一边是一线城市核心 区豪宅"慢涨"，强二线城市"产业+人口"双轮驱动下逆势上扬。这场变局背后，是人口流动、产业升级和政策调控的深度博弈。购房者、投资者该如何在这 场浪潮中找准方向？答案就藏在城市的"经济基因"里。 2025-2027：全国房价"普跌"中的结构性分化 三四线城市的困境，本质是"人口-产业-房价"的恶性循环。随着年轻人口向一二线城市迁移，这些城市购房需求持续萎缩，而前期过度开发的住宅库存却居 高不下。数据显示，部分三四线城市空置率已超25%，远超国际警戒线。更严峻的是，资源枯竭型城市（如鹤岗、双鸭山）因传统产业衰退，财政收入锐 减，城市更新乏力，房价可能率先跌回2015年水平。不过，环都市圈卫星城因承接一线城市外溢需求，叠加轨道交通（如地铁、城际铁路）贯通，可能成为 三四线城市中的"例外"，吸引部分通勤人群和养老群体，带动房价结构性补涨。 总结：楼市进入"精准投资"时代，选对城市比赌涨跌更重要 未来三年的楼市，早已不是"闭眼买都能赚"的时代。一线城市的核心资产仍是"硬通货"，但需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of decreasing household sizes in China, highlighting the average household size of 2.51 people per household in 2024, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics in the "China Statistical Yearbook 2025" [3][4]. Summary by Sections Household Size by Province - In 2024, 16 provinces have an average household size equal to or exceeding the national average, with Hainan having the largest at 3.21 people per household [4]. - The provinces with larger household sizes are often correlated with higher birth rates, indicating a relationship between family size and demographic trends [4]. Birth and Death Rates - In 2024, 10 provinces reported a birth rate of 8‰ or higher, primarily located in the western and southern regions of China, including Tibet, Ningxia, and Hainan [4]. - The article notes that the overall trend of smaller household sizes is influenced by a decrease in the average number of children per family and a decline in multi-generational households [5]. Population Mobility - The seventh national census indicates that as of 2020, 49.276 million people were living separately from their registered households, with 37.582 million being part of the mobile population, reflecting significant increases since 2010 [5]. - Regions with lower birth rates and out-migration of young populations tend to have smaller average household sizes [6]. Living Conditions - Improved living conditions have contributed to smaller family sizes, as many adult children choose to live independently from their parents, leading to a decrease in multi-generational living arrangements [6].

Group 1 - The average household size in China for 2024 is reported to be 2.51 persons per household, with significant variations across provinces [1][2] - Provinces with larger average household sizes include Hainan (3.21), Tibet, Guangxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan, Ningxia, and Jiangxi, with 16 provinces exceeding the national average [1][2] - The size of households is closely related to birth rates, with regions having larger household sizes generally exhibiting higher birth rates [1][2] Group 2 - In 2024, 10 provinces have birth rates reaching or exceeding 8‰, primarily located in the western and southern regions of China [2][3] - Factors influencing household size include the decrease in average number of children per family and the decline of multi-generational households [2][3] - Improvements in living conditions have led to a trend where adult children live independently from their parents, contributing to smaller household sizes [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a new landscape after deep adjustments, with significant price increases in various cities reflecting regional economic development and population movement [1][8] - The top cities in the price increase rankings are primarily driven by strong industrial foundations and innovative ecosystems, with a focus on improving living environments and urban quality [7][8] Group 1: Price Increases by City - Hangzhou leads with a monthly price increase of 6.3%, supported by a diverse economic base including digital economy, biomedicine, and AI, alongside strong demand for improved housing [1] - Hefei follows with a 5.8% increase, driven by the growth of industries such as new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, attracting young tech talent [2] - Chengdu ranks third with a 5.5% increase, benefiting from the development of the Chengyu economic circle and a surge in demand for high-quality housing [4] - Nanjing and Suzhou have increases of 5.2% and 4.9% respectively, with Nanjing's urban development and Suzhou's advanced manufacturing sector contributing to their growth [4] - Wuhan's price increase of 4.7% is fueled by the demand for housing in high-tech zones, while Changsha and Xi'an see increases of 4.5% and 4.3% respectively, supported by industrial upgrades [4][6] - Qingdao and Zhengzhou round out the top ten with increases of 4.1% and 3.9%, driven by their unique industrial strengths and improved transportation links [6] Group 2: Common Characteristics - The cities on the list share strong industrial bases and effective talent policies, which provide lasting momentum for the real estate market [7] - There is a noticeable structural change in housing demand, with a focus on improved housing and high-end talent apartments, while rigid demand is met through affordable rental housing [7] - Cities are enhancing their market stability by regulating speculative behaviors and ensuring a balanced supply of land, contributing to healthy market development [7]