Core Insights - China's total population reached 1.408 billion by the end of 2024, marking three consecutive years of negative growth since 2022 [1][2] - The total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.05, the lowest since 1944, indicating a significant decline in birth rates [2][7] - The gender ratio shows 719.09 million males and 689.19 million females, with a gender ratio of 104.3 [1] - Urban population stands at 943.5 million, while rural population is 464.78 million [1] Population Structure - Age distribution: 16.9% (0-14 years), 62.2% (15-59 years), and 20.9% (60 years and above) [2] - The elderly population (65 years and above) accounts for 15.4% of the total population [2] Regional Population Dynamics - Eastern provinces have seen an increase in population share to 40.32%, while all three northeastern provinces experienced negative growth [3] - In 2024, 20 provinces reported population decline, with Shandong, Henan, and Heilongjiang showing the largest decreases [7] - Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang recorded the highest population increases [7] Detailed Population Data by Region - Beijing: 21.83 million, decrease of 0.126 million from 2023 [4] - Shanghai: 24.80 million, increase of 0.072 million from 2023 [4] - Jiangsu: 85.26 million, no change from 2023 [4] - Guangdong: 12.78 million, increase of 0.074 million from 2023 [4] - The overall trend indicates a significant population outflow from northeastern provinces [7] Implications and Recommendations - Immediate action is required to address the declining birth rate, with a focus on incentivizing childbirth [15] - Strategies to combat population decline in rural areas include developing satellite cities and future industries [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing population dynamics in China, highlighting a shift in migration patterns among graduates and migrant workers, with a notable trend of returning to hometowns and a preference for provincial capitals over major cities [1][10][15]. Group 1: Population Trends - In 2024, eight provinces in China experienced positive population growth, a decrease from eleven in 2023, while twenty provinces saw a total population decline of 3.04 million [1]. - The total number of migrant workers in China reached 29.973 million in 2024, an increase of 220,000 from the previous year, with a notable shift towards local mobility rather than interprovincial migration [10][14]. - The population in Chongqing decreased slightly, but mechanical growth exceeded 80,000 due to returning migrant workers [13]. Group 2: Graduate Employment Preferences - Many graduates prefer to stay in their hometowns for employment, citing a lack of competitive advantages in larger cities [4][19]. - The talent attraction report indicates that the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions continue to attract graduates, with Zhejiang and Guangdong leading in population growth [4][5]. - The number of provinces with positive population growth has been declining, with only eight provinces showing growth in 2024 compared to fifteen in 2021 [5]. Group 3: Provincial Capitals' Appeal - Provincial capitals are becoming increasingly popular due to better infrastructure, job opportunities, and lower living costs compared to first-tier cities [15][16]. - In 2024, 23 out of 25 provincial capitals reported positive population growth, contrasting with the declining populations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [16][18]. - The article notes that while first-tier cities still offer high salaries and job opportunities, the high cost of living and competition are driving some individuals towards second and third-tier cities or provincial capitals [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant population decline in two-thirds of China's provinces, highlighting a demographic shift and the implications for economic and social structures across the country [3][4]. Group 1: Population Decline - In 2024, 20 out of 31 provincial-level regions in China experienced a decrease in permanent resident population, with only 8 regions showing growth [7][8]. - Shandong province saw the largest decline, losing 430,000 residents in 2024, marking three consecutive years of population decrease [10][11]. - Other provinces like Henan and Hunan also faced significant losses, each losing around 300,000 residents [11][12]. Group 2: Urban Migration Patterns - The article notes a trend where young graduates are increasingly leaving their hometowns, with many opting for larger cities, leading to a concentration of population in urban centers [6][15]. - In contrast, provinces like Zhejiang have seen population growth across multiple cities, with Hangzhou adding 659,000 residents from 2020 to 2024 [18][21]. - Conversely, in Hunan, only Changsha experienced population growth, while the remaining cities saw declines, indicating a trend of urban concentration [19][23]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Population Movement - The article highlights how provinces like Anhui and Guizhou are reversing population declines through industrial growth, particularly in the automotive and data center sectors [30][31]. - Anhui's automotive industry has seen significant growth, contributing to a population increase of 1.48 million from 2010 to 2020 [32][35]. - Guizhou has transformed its economy through the establishment of data centers, leading to a notable increase in software industry employment and revenue [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic conditions in Northeast China, highlighting its low cost of living and the underlying factors contributing to this phenomenon, including low wages, high reliance on state-owned enterprises, and demographic challenges such as aging population and out-migration [4][15][39]. Group 1: Cost of Living - Northeast China is perceived as a "low-price paradise," where even a monthly salary of 3000 yuan allows for a comfortable lifestyle [4][5]. - The prices of food and services in Northeast cities like Harbin are significantly lower compared to southern cities, with examples showing meals costing as little as 9 yuan for a dish [10][11]. - The affordability extends to clothing and services, with winter clothing priced much lower than in other regions [13][14]. Group 2: Wage Levels - Wage levels in Northeast China are notably low, with personal income tax contributions in Harbin being significantly lower than in cities like Zhuhai, despite Harbin's larger population [18]. - In 2023, the average wages for urban non-private units in the three northeastern provinces ranked among the lowest in the country [19]. - The average disposable income in 2024 for residents in Jilin and Heilongjiang is below the national median, indicating economic struggles [20]. Group 3: Economic Structure - The high proportion of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China contributes to the low wage levels, with state-owned sectors dominating the job market [21][24]. - The reliance on large state-owned enterprises has created a social structure that favors employment in these entities, limiting the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises [25][26]. - The economic performance of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China is poor, with many reporting low profit margins and significant losses [31][37]. Group 4: Demographic Challenges - Northeast China faces significant demographic issues, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, which are exacerbating economic challenges [39][40]. - The region has experienced substantial population outflow, with over 1.1 million people leaving from 2015 to 2024, further reducing the consumer base [41]. - The phenomenon of "bird migration" where many residents spend winters in warmer regions like Hainan is also noted, impacting local consumption patterns [42][43]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there are signs of potential economic recovery, particularly in the realm of exports, which have been increasing for four consecutive years [47]. - The existing industrial and research capabilities in Northeast China may provide a foundation for future growth if leveraged effectively [47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic conditions in Northeast China, highlighting its low cost of living and the underlying factors such as low wages and an aging population that contribute to this phenomenon [5][13][34]. Group 1: Cost of Living - Northeast China is described as a "low-price paradise" for young people, where even a monthly salary of 3000 yuan allows for a comfortable lifestyle [3][5]. - Specific examples of low food prices in cities like Shenyang are provided, such as a large bowl of coconut chicken costing only 36 yuan, compared to at least 100 yuan in Guangzhou [6][11]. - Breakfast buffets in Shenyang can be as low as 10 yuan, offering a wide variety of dishes, showcasing the region's affordability [8][9]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The article identifies five macroeconomic factors influencing prices: input factors (exchange rates and commodities), money supply, interest rates, wages, and aging population [13]. - It notes that while input factors are similar across regions, wage levels and aging populations are key to understanding the price differences, particularly in Northeast China [13][19]. - In 2023, Harbin's individual income tax revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, significantly lower than Zhuhai's 15.4 billion yuan, despite Harbin's larger population [14]. Group 3: Wage Levels - The article presents data showing that wages in Northeast China are among the lowest in the country, with urban non-private sector wages ranking third from the bottom in Jilin, fifth in Heilongjiang, and eighth in Liaoning [15][16]. - The average disposable income in 2024 for Jilin and Heilongjiang is below the national median, indicating economic struggles in these provinces [18]. - The high proportion of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China contributes to lower wage levels, with over 30% of the economy in Liaoning being state-owned [19][22]. Group 4: Demographic Challenges - Northeast China faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, with birth rates in 2023 being among the lowest in the country [34][35]. - The region's population has been shrinking, with a total decrease of over 1.1 million people from 2015 to 2024, leading to reduced consumer demand and further economic decline [37]. - The phenomenon of "bird migration" where many residents move to warmer regions during winter exacerbates the population decline and economic challenges in Northeast China [38][39]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - Despite the challenges, there are signs of potential economic recovery, with Northeast China's import and export activities reaching record highs in recent years [40]. - The region's existing production and research advantages may facilitate a resurgence if leveraged effectively [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of population changes on the economy, emphasizing the relationship between labor force demographics and economic growth, particularly in China [3][4]. Population Dependency Ratio and Economic Growth - China's population dependency ratio decreased from 7 dependents per 10 working-age individuals to 3.4 from 1980 to 2010, coinciding with an average GDP growth rate of around 10% during that period [3]. - Post-2010, the dependency ratio began to rise, with the GDP growth rate declining to 5%, indicating increased financial pressure on families and the state due to a higher number of dependents [4]. Future Population Projections - It is projected that by 2027, China's total population will fall below 1.4 billion, and by 2039, it will drop below 1.3 billion [10]. - Newborn population is expected to decline to below 9 million by 2025 and potentially drop below 7 million by 2035, indicating a significant demographic shift [11]. Birth Rate Trends and Influencing Factors - The article highlights a rapid decline in birth rates, particularly among younger age groups, and compares China's birth rates with those of Japan and several European countries [14]. - Factors contributing to the decline in marriage and birth rates include gender imbalance, educational disparities, and economic pressures faced by young people [17]. Urbanization and Population Movement - Urbanization rates in China are slowing, with a notable decrease in the influx of migrant workers and a trend of population return to central and western provinces [20]. - Major urban centers continue to attract population growth, with cities like Zhejiang and Shanghai experiencing significant net inflows despite overall population declines in many provinces [21]. Employment Trends in Different Sectors - The manufacturing sector's employment is decreasing, while the service sector is expanding, indicating a shift in economic structure [25]. - High-tech manufacturing and service industry growth are key factors attracting population inflows, with cities like Chengdu and Hefei leading in these developments [25].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth, suggesting that the current focus should be on promoting consumption due to various economic conditions [1][8] - It highlights the long-standing issues in China's domestic economic circulation, such as overcapacity in certain industries and insufficient effective demand, which have persisted since 2012 [2][5] - The article notes that the contribution of final consumption to GDP in China is below 40%, compared to over 50% in many other countries, indicating a need for policies that enhance household disposable income [9][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the structural issues in fiscal spending, where approximately 85% of expenditures are concentrated at the local government level, limiting the central government's macroeconomic control [14][17] - It suggests that local governments are incentivized to focus on investment due to performance evaluations based on GDP growth, which may lead to overinvestment in certain sectors and exacerbate capacity issues [14][15] - The article proposes that improving the income distribution structure and increasing the disposable income of lower-income groups could significantly boost consumption [10][11] Group 3 - The article addresses the demographic challenges posed by an aging population, predicting a decline in total population by 2027 and emphasizing the need for adjustments in fiscal policy to support this demographic shift [18][21] - It points out that as the population ages, the contribution of consumption to GDP is expected to increase, necessitating a focus on enhancing investment efficiency and consumption multiplier effects [21][22] - The article highlights the importance of aligning infrastructure investment with population migration trends to optimize resource allocation and improve economic efficiency [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the population growth trends in provincial capital cities in China, highlighting that while these cities are experiencing population increases, the overall national population is declining. This phenomenon is attributed to various factors including economic opportunities, public services, and living costs in provincial capitals [1][5][10]. Summary by Sections Population Growth in Provincial Capitals - As of May 12, 2025, 24 out of 27 provincial capitals have released their 2024 population data, with 23 showing an increase. Among these, 6 cities had a population increase exceeding 100,000, with Guiyang leading at 199,600 [1][5]. - The overall national population decreased by 139,000 in 2024, contrasting with the growth in provincial capitals [5]. Factors Influencing Population Influx - Provincial capitals attract population due to their role as industrial, technological, and financial hubs, offering high-value job opportunities [1][10]. - The concentration of quality public services, including education and healthcare, also plays a significant role in attracting residents [1][10]. - The relatively moderate cost of living in many provincial capitals makes them appealing to young graduates seeking employment [1][10]. Case Studies of Population Growth - Xi'an, recognized as the northern city with the highest population growth in 2024, saw an increase of 89,400 residents, marking a 55% growth over 14 years [7][8]. - Guiyang's population growth is attributed to its robust industrial development, with a GDP of 577.74 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 6% increase [12][13]. Future Trends and Challenges - The article suggests that the trend of population growth in provincial capitals may not continue indefinitely, as urban management capabilities will be increasingly tested [2][16]. - There is a notable disparity in population growth among different provincial capitals, with some experiencing minimal increases or even negative growth [15][16].

以下文章来源于经济观察报 ，作者田国宝 经济观察报 . 经济观察报是专注于财经新闻与经济分析的全国性综合财经类媒体，创办于2001年。聚焦商道、商技和 商机，以锐度、悦度、广度、深度的报道形成了权威的媒体公信力和影响力。 人口流动。 作者 | 田国宝 来源 | 经济观察报 （ID：eeo-com-cn） 据燕郊高新区管委会官网数据，目前燕郊人口达110万，比2023年增加近20万。从房 价 低 谷 到 人 口 回 流 ， 燕 郊 人 口 数 量 变 迁 折 射 出 都 市 圈 卫 星 城 的 起 伏 命 运 。 它 既 是 " 北 漂"青年的落脚点，也是老年人和低收入群体的避风港。 清明节那天中午，耿阿姨祭拜完父亲后，从北京拼车回到了燕郊。她是土生土长的北京 人，在朋友的影响下，和老伴儿一起将北京的房子租出去，搬到了燕郊定居。每月四五 千元的租金差价，足以让这对老夫妻过上舒适的日子。 4月8日中午，李东在燕郊的家中为女儿举办了一个简单却温馨的生日会。他曾是北京居 民，失业后卖掉了北京的房子，带着家人搬到燕郊。"住了一段时间后，我开始喜欢上这 里的生活。"他笑着说。 4月9日傍晚6点，小艾从北京丰台区的公司下班 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the population changes across various provinces in China for the year 2024, highlighting significant trends in population growth and decline among different regions [1][5]. Group 1: Population Growth and Decline - 28 provinces have reported their permanent resident population data for the end of 2024, with 8 provinces experiencing population growth, 2 remaining stable, and 18 witnessing declines [1]. - Guangdong has reclaimed its position as the province with the highest population increase, adding 740,000 residents, surpassing Zhejiang [6][7]. - Shandong has seen the largest population decline, losing 428,000 residents in 2023, marking it as the province with the most significant drop [1][6]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - In the central region, only Anhui has reported a population increase, while the other five provinces collectively lost 960,000 residents [5][13]. - Sichuan and Henan, both major economic provinces, have also experienced population declines, with Sichuan losing 40,000 and Henan losing 300,000 residents [10][13]. - The northeastern provinces, particularly Liaoning and Jilin, which had seen a brief population inflow in 2023, are now again facing outflows, with Liaoning losing 49,000 and Jilin losing 108,000 residents in 2024 [17][21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Population Changes - Population changes are influenced by both natural growth (births minus deaths) and migration patterns [5][6]. - Guangdong's population growth is attributed to a high birth rate, with 1.13 million births in the previous year, making it the only province with over a million births [6][7]. - In contrast, Shandong's population decline is exacerbated by a net outflow of over 430,000 residents in two years, raising concerns about its population potentially falling below 100 million [9][17]. Group 4: Policy Responses - Jiangsu has introduced 15 measures to promote childbirth, including direct financial support for families [8]. - Both Hunan and Hubei are implementing strategies to attract and retain young talent, focusing on improving living conditions and reducing the cost of raising children [15].